April 2023

[davidiowx]

Are y’alls cars ok? That’s insane.

[Iceresistance]

BE170966-F393-47D9-B234-7C8A75C493AF.jpeg

Are you going to send these to the NWS?

[djmike]

Are y’alls cars ok? That’s insane.

Dont know yet. Still hailing and pouring. I think so, but Im afraid Ill get knocked out just to check. Lol
Yes I sent pics to our local news and NWSLC. (Our NWS).

[Iceresistance]

Are y’alls cars ok? That’s insane.

Dont know yet. Still hailing and pouring. I think so, but Im afraid Ill get knocked out just to check. Lol
Yes I sent pics to our local news and NWSLC. (Our NWS).

It would be nice to film the hailstorm down there! (And not being struck by the hailstones of course)

[djmike]

3.91” so far and still counting. Hail is starting to pile up. Ill see if I can get some more pics without getting knocked out.

[djmike]

I have a video but doesn’t look like I can upload it on here. Only pictures.

[djmike]

Beaumont 4/15/23

[DoctorMu]

Are y’alls cars ok? That’s insane.

Dont know yet. Still hailing and pouring. I think so, but Im afraid Ill get knocked out just to check. Lol
Yes I sent pics to our local news and NWSLC. (Our NWS).

That's ridiculous. I hope it stops soon. Those cells have been training Beaumont.

[jasons2k]

Complete opposite here. Not a drop. Amazing.

[Cromagnum]

So any explanation why models have been completely wrong left and right lately? Pretty much at the point I can expect rain when I can see it actively raining.

[Cpv17]

Good news guys and gals, the EPS and GEFS both have a signal for 2-3” over the next 2 weeks. Sweet!!

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 good to see them in agreement, definitely very promising

[DoctorMu]

Good news guys and gals, the EPS and GEFS both have a signal for 2-3” over the next 2 weeks. Sweet!!

Most of that looks to be along (the last) FROPA in 8 days. We'll see.

In the meantime, beautiful weather today and tomorrow...maybe into Tuesday. Our best chance of rain this week is Wednesday. Could really use some liquid gold into this week.

Fingers crossed the shift to an El Nino means a wetter or better said less parched summer!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 170821
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
321 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

With the surface high (currently over the area) beginning its trek
east, will only expect some subtle changes to the cool/dry pattern
over SE TX today. Highs will be a tad warmer (mid to upper 70s) as
well as lows tonight (mid to upper 50s for most areas and lower to
mid 60s for H-town metro south to the beaches). But the big change
with this pattern will be the return of onshore winds tonight that
could lead to the return of low POPs on Tues. Models remain rather
insistent with bringing a series of shortwaves in from the west as
the flow aloft becomes more zonal with time. At the lower levels, a
strong low pressure system that is progged to move across the Nor-
thern Plains, which may not be enough to tighten the gradient down
here. This then leads to the issue of available moisture for those
aforementioned shortwaves to work with. So for now, will keep with
POPs ~20% for Tues...mainly during the daytime hours. High temper-
atures on Tues will be in the upper 70s and lower 80s with lows in
the mid and upper 60s. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Wednesday through Friday will be on the warm and humid side with a
persistent onshore flow (highs mainly in the low to mid 80s and lows
mainly in a mid 60s to low 70s range). Partly to occasionally mostly
cloudy skies can be expected. Forecast precipitable water values have
generally come in lower than what we saw at this time yesterday, resulting
in a more uncertain forecast for when/where our next best rain chances
will be as we try to time weak disturbances moving across the state
in the mainly zonal flow aloft. Perhaps but not real confident that
the better chances/coverage might come with the passage of the next
cold front, maybe some time in the Friday night through early Saturday
morning time period. This current timing of the front will bring cooler
air back to the area for the weekend (lows back into the 50s/60s Saturday
morning and in the 50s Sunday morning and highs in the 70s). 42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Will continue with a VFR TAF package for today and tonight. Winds
this afternoon should be mostly E around 10 kts...then decreasing
and shifting to the SE tonight. This onshore flow could allow for
the return of increasing dewpoints overnight and perhaps some low
clouds very briefly around sunrise. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 321 AM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

North winds early this morning will swing around to the east and southeast
today as high pressure moves off to the east. As the pressure gradient
tightens, this onshore flow will strengthen and seas will rise tonight
through Wednesday night, likely resulting in caution and advisory flags.
Onshore winds are expected to decrease somewhat by Thursday as the gradient
weakens a bit. Rain chances will be on the low side during the Tuesday
through Thursday time frame. A cold front now looks to push off the
coast late Friday or early Saturday resulting in possible showers or
thunderstorms along with a moderate to strong offshore flow in its wake.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 55 79 65 / 0 10 20 20
Houston (IAH) 77 58 80 68 / 0 10 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 73 68 76 71 / 0 0 20 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

[Stratton20]

Next frontal passage looks rather unimpressive with rain chances, might be a while before we get a good rain event here again, the pattern is too progressive, we need systems to start slowing down if we want a good widespread rain event around here again

GFS keeps most of the energy and precipitation to our east with the next FROPA

[Cpv17]

Next frontal passage looks rather unimpressive with rain chances, might be a while before we get a good rain event here again, the pattern is too progressive, we need systems to start slowing down if we want a good widespread rain event around here again

GFS keeps most of the energy and precipitation to our east with the next FROPA

It’s going to be hard for us to get any rain when we still have these cold fronts that keep clearing the coast on a regular basis. It does keep the temps in check and gives us some nice weather so I’m not complaining too much.

[DoctorMu]

Next frontal passage looks rather unimpressive with rain chances, might be a while before we get a good rain event here again, the pattern is too progressive, we need systems to start slowing down if we want a good widespread rain event around here again

GFS keeps most of the energy and precipitation to our east with the next FROPA

It’s going to be hard for us to get any rain when we still have these cold fronts that keep clearing the coast on a regular basis. It does keep the temps in check and gives us some nice weather so I’m not complaining too much.

There must be a happy medium between statton's Sunday, Wed Fri posts of - it's going to rain for the next 2 weeks!
and
Monday, Thursday, Saturday: it's not going to rain much if at all.

[Stratton20]

Doctormu yep im pretty picky on my rainy and dry days but mother nature does as she wants lol

[DoctorMu]

We've only got (typically) a few more FROPA's left before popcorn shower/seabreeze season. Then, it's Death Ridge Season and Hurricane Season.

NOW I wouldn't mind a stalled front! The best chance of that is near the end of April on GFS, CMC.

Rain chances Wednesday and this weekend are down to 20-30%


Beautiful day and cool night. However winds have shifted to the South. However the DP is still low. Unfortunately by Wed-Friday the humidity will be back, but pretty low chances of precip. I've seen this increasingly so where the energy in the FROPAs are well east and north of here into the Spring. Fingers crossed this isn't the new normal, but it probably is.

Fingers crossed for some rain, backdoor fronts with the upcoming El Niño.

[tireman4]

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1215 PM CDT Mon Apr 17 2023

Surface high pressure will continue to move eastward this
afternoon, shifting winds to the east-southeast. Light to moderate
winds will prevail through sunset before becoming light and
variable at night. Clouds will be on the increase tonight, with
KCLL seeing MVFR ceilings by early Tuesday morning. A few light
showers will be possible Tuesday morning across most sites, but
impacts should be minimal to mention in TAFs. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through the period.