May 2023

[tireman4]

Same here. Gracious. Torrential downpour with heavy tropical raindrops makes for a great commute.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 101133
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)

A mid/upper low over central Texas will slowly meander northward
today. The environment to the east of the low features ample lift
and PWAT along with some modest instability. It just so happens that
southeast Texas is located within this environment east of the low.
CAMs guidance shows bands of showers and thunderstorms pushing
through our region during the morning and early afternoon hours
today. These bands of showers and storms are already entering our
southwestern counties as I type this AFD. HREF ensembles indicate
the introduction of some low-level shear due to a 25-35 KT 850MB
jet. Therefore, could not rule out a stronger thunderstorm or two.
However, the primary concern continues to be heavy rainfall and
localized flooding. WPC continues to keep our region in a slight to
moderate risk of excessive rainfall. Our current HREF leaning QPF
grids show rainfall totals generally in the 2-4 inch range. We
cannot rule out upwards of 5-7 inches of rain in locations that
receive locally heavy rainfall. Localized street flooding,
especially in areas of poor drainage, is one of the primary concerns
today. Rising creeks, streams, and bayous are also a concern in and
near locations that receive locally heavy rainfall.

Shower and thunderstorm activity is expected to become more isolated
during the afternoon hours as the low pulls away. Given the wet
grounds and moist low-levels, we will need to monitor the fog
potential for tonight. However, winds could remain elevated enough
to limit the fog potential. Deep persistent onshore flow will keep
PWs/humidity high on Thursday. With a little more sunshine likely,
Thursday is expected to warm into the mid-80s (upper-80s in a few
spots). With daytime heating, high PWs, and the presence of weak
quick moving shortwaves, expect another chance of showers and
thunderstorms on Thursday. However, Thursday`s shower/thunderstorm
activity is expected to be more isolated.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Friday: A lull in precipitation can be expected as the bulk of
the dynamics and lifting should remain further north and west of
the forecast area. Stratus clouds, on the other hand, will stick
around through most of the day as theta-e advection
continues/increases over the region. With daytime heating and
strong instability still in place, isolated to scattered rain and
storms cannot be ruled out, mainly in the aftn and evening.

Saturday and Sunday: Rain and storm chances will continue during
the weekend. However, the best chances will reside across our
western counties. Another strong mid-lvl shortwave and associated
sfc trough will develop and move across south/central TX during
the day. Low to mid level instability, increasing moisture
advection and high PWs will keep rain/storm chances in the
forecast. Again, the best PoPs looks to be west of I-45 on
Saturday... expanded further to the east (more into our region)on
Sunday.

Early next week: Mid level pattern remains messy with multiple PV
anomalies/shortwaves embedded in the SW to W flow. At the sfc, a
cold front will move across the area Monday into Tuesday. Rain
and storms are possible ahead and behind the front.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023

SHRA and TSRA will impact the region through at least the rest of
the morning with more iso to scat SHRA/TSRA activity expected this
afternoon. Heavy rainfall will be the primary concern. However,
strong winds will also be possible, especially south of I-10. Winds
will generally be from the SE today. However, winds could become
variable at times due to TSRA activity. Cigs will generally be IFR
to MVFR with occasional LIFR in a few spots this morning. Cigs
are expected to drop to at least low end MVFR tonight. Latest
guidance suggest IFR cigs are likely overnight into tomorrow
morning. There is also a chance of fog tonight, especially north
of Houston. However, winds could remain elevated enough to limit
the fog potential. Overall, the fog forecast is uncertain tonight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 307 AM CDT Wed May 10 2023

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms can be expected
today as several disturbances move through the region. Strong
gusty winds, heavy rain and frequent lightning can be expected
with the strongest storms. Rain and storm chances can be expected
every day, with the best chances today and then early next week.
Moderate southeast winds will persist through at least Sunday.
Seas around 5 to 6 ft, occasionally around 7ft can be expected at
times. Offshore flow will be possible by early next week after
the passage of a cold front.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 79 70 85 73 / 80 10 30 10
Houston (IAH) 79 72 85 74 / 100 10 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 76 81 77 / 100 10 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ178-179-199-200-210>214-
226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...JM

[Cpv17]

.6 Sunday, .8 yesterday, and 1.38 earlier this morning bringing my total up to 2.78” for the week. Ditches and fields were full of water this morning. We’ve had enough rain here for at least the next 2-3 weeks. Have a feeling the farmers aren’t going to be able to get into their fields to harvest in June because it’s gonna be too wet. The rainy pattern is supposed to be sticking around into June.

[Cromagnum]

Very feisty this morning between 530-630. Looks like current slop is rotating around and filling in to the west some.

[don]

It's busy out there this morning.

[djmike]

Houston and Beaumont seem to be prime target for continuous rounds of rain rotating around the low atleast till noon. We’ll see.

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza's thoughts...

[Cromagnum]

Looking at radar trends I would say Beamont area is in for the worst of it today

[djmike]

Currently getting hammered again. 5” since sunday and counting. Looks like it going to be a long day for us in the triangle.

[Cpv17]

Currently getting hammered again. 5” since sunday and counting. Looks like it going to be a long day for us in the triangle.

Y’all are used to it by now, I’m sure.

Looking past today, the models have nothing really going on tomorrow. So tomorrow we should get a break widespread besides maybe some afternoon isolated heat driven showers.

I thought we would end up getting a lot more the past couple days. I can get more from a random afternoon thunderstorm than what I’ve gotten but I’m not complaining. We’ve gotten more than enough here lately.

[djmike]

Currently getting hammered again. 5” since sunday and counting. Looks like it going to be a long day for us in the triangle.

Y’all are used to it by now, I’m sure.

Looking past today, the models have nothing really going on tomorrow. So tomorrow we should get a break widespread besides maybe some afternoon isolated heat driven showers.

I thought we would end up getting a lot more the past couple days. I can get more from a random afternoon thunderstorm than what I’ve gotten but I’m not complaining. We’ve gotten more than enough here lately.

Pretty much but still gets exciting. As long as no damage is done. Any minute you’ll probably start seeing flooding posts on social media for Beaumont. Lol. Currently flooded at work. One road with no way in or out. This is the part that sucks. Lol

[Cpv17]

Currently getting hammered again. 5” since sunday and counting. Looks like it going to be a long day for us in the triangle.

Y’all are used to it by now, I’m sure.

Looking past today, the models have nothing really going on tomorrow. So tomorrow we should get a break widespread besides maybe some afternoon isolated heat driven showers.

I thought we would end up getting a lot more the past couple days. I can get more from a random afternoon thunderstorm than what I’ve gotten but I’m not complaining. We’ve gotten more than enough here lately.

Pretty much but still gets exciting. As long as no damage is done. Any minute you’ll probably start seeing flooding posts on social media for Beaumont. Lol. Currently flooded at work. One road with no way in or out. This is the part that sucks. Lol

I know what you mean. I love when it floods. Usually after it’s done raining I’ll go for a long drive for a good hour or two and look at all the water everywhere and take lots of pictures and videos. It’s hella exciting for me! Lol

Just as long as there’s no damage then I’m all for it. The most rain I’ve ever gotten in one hour was 6” from a Harvey rain band. I was outside under the carport just soaking it all in. Luckily for us we didn’t get nearly as much rain from Harvey as a lot of others did. 25” here over a 4 day period. Now if we had gotten that much in one day then that would be a completely different story.

[djmike]

Flash flood warning Beaumont

[djmike]

[tireman4]

The sun, although shrouded in clouds, is out. Would this/could this elevated scattered thunderstorms this afternoon if the conductive temperatures are met ( I think they are in the mid 80s)? Humm

[djmike]

Yup. Flooded at work.

[don]

Not expecting any significant flooding in the Golden Triangle either (besides minor street flooding like what we saw in the houston area yesterday or with your everyday pop up thunderstorms)as rain will be ending soon there also.

[Cpv17]

Not expecting any significant flooding in the Golden Triangle either (besides minor street flooding like what we saw in the houston area yesterday or with your everyday pop up thunderstorms)as rain will be ending soon there also.

I believe areas around Matagorda Bay were the biggest winners. Saw some reports of 8-10” coming outta that area this morning.

[don]

Not expecting any significant flooding in the Golden Triangle either (besides minor street flooding like what we saw in the houston area yesterday or with your everyday pop up thunderstorms)as rain will be ending soon there also.

I believe areas around Matagorda Bay were the biggest winners. Saw some reports of 8-10” coming outta that area this morning.

Yep.

[Cromagnum]

Popcorn is popping.