May 2023
It looks like the best chances for rain today will be between 1-10pm and today it looks more likely south of 10. We’ll see what actually happens.
Only managed 0.24” yesterday. Not that I need any more - we’re saturated - but apparently spots just down the road (south and west) had 5-6” fall.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4500
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 160903
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Weak surface high pressure should be situated off the coast today
with a diffuse frontal boundary close to our northern zones. In the
upper levels, a mid-upper trof seen on water vapor imagery centered
south of the Big Bend area will drift in our direction. PW`s around
1.75" will be prevalent across the area with convective temperatures
in the 82-84 degree range. Suspect we`ll probably see some scattered
shra/tstm development get going during the afternoon...more than
likely in the coastal zones or south of I-10 where temperatures
should warm faster and a seabreeze/baybreeze initiates. Also, can`t
rule out a few along/near frontal zone well inland. The overall flow
regime is very light and storm motions will be slow. Environment
will be favorable for any localized stronger cells to produce a
couple inches of rain in a short time period...collapse and send
outflows to possibly interact/collide and regenerate another storm
or two. Very localized street flooding will be the primary hazard
during the late afternoon to early evening hours, with gusty winds
under collapsing cells secondary. Convection should mostly diminish
a few hours after sunset.
With the upper trof axis passing to our east later tonight &
Wednesday, we should see a drier airmass filtering in with PW`s
falling to ~1" and corresponding rain chances diminishing. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
With slightly drier air filtering in following Wednesday`s weak cold
front and ridging aloft shifting in from the west, we`ll transition
towards a dry and hot period at the end of the work week. With PW
values quite a bit below the 75th percentile (~1.55") and plenty of
sunshine, we`ll be able to heat rather efficiently. This leads to
temperatures on Thursday topping out in the upper 80s with some
spots flirting with the low 90s. Things get a bit more toasty on
Friday as the drier air remains in place in addition to
southwesterly winds aloft becoming established ahead of an
approaching frontal system. This should lead to widespread high
temperatures in the low 90s on Friday, which would make this our
hottest day since the first week of May. Those low 90s persist
into Saturday for locations along and south of I-10 due to
prefrontal heating. I`m gonna need to make a hair appointment to
get some frosted tips, because the 90s are back!!! Well...for a
few days at least...let`s talk FROPA.
On Thursday/Friday an upper level low begins to dip down into the
Northern Plains and drifts towards the Great Lakes region (fairly
close to the Alberta Clipper track). The subsequent surface low
follows the same track as well. The low doesn`t reach its most
southern extent until its already to our east, so we won`t get in on
the climatologically cool 850mb temperatures associated with this
system. BUT we`ll still get the tail-end of the cold front. With a
1024-1026mb surface high pressure behind the front, there`s pretty
good confidence that the front will push all the way through
Southeast TX. PW values surge to 1.8"-2.0" along the frontal
boundary, so showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of
and along the frontal boundary. Since we miss out on the cooler
temperatures aloft, we`ll keep those warm daytime
temperatures...but at least they`ll max out in the mid to upper
80s versus the 90s. June is on the horizon, so I`ll take as many
below 90°F days as possible!
Current model trends point towards the front stalling out just
offshore and washing out. Onshore winds don`t return for a few days
though, so we`ll likely get to enjoy dew points in the mid 60s
for the latter half of the weekend and into early next week.
That`s about as good as it gets for this time of year! Ridging
aloft looks to build in again early next week, but some embedded
shortwaves and PW values around the 75th percentile (near 90th
percentile off the coast: ~1.74") should be enough to generate
our typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening hours. With another ridge building in though, models are
hinting at an upward temperature trend going into next
week...*Tamagotchi noises intensifies*
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings expected CXO southward into mid morning
then lifting. Further north and closer to a weak surface frontal
zone, MVFR-IFR ceilings will be slower to lift...but should too make
it toward VFR territory by early afternoon. Expecting some scattered
shra/tstm development to initiate in the 18-20z timeframe as temps
make their way into the lower 80s. More favorable locations will be
along & south of I-10, but outflows from these storms could make
their way further north into the metro area during the late
afternoon & early evening before dissipating. Suspect most areas
will be VFR overnight with some mid-high level overcast cloud cover,
but may need to watch for patchy fog development should the thicker
decks not materialize. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Relatively benign period expected for the next several days as light
winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. Afternoon chances for showers and
thunderstorms continues into Wednesday before conditions trend drier
following a weak cold front pushing offshore. Winds will briefly be
northerly before taking a westerly to southwesterly turn going into
late Wednesday. Onshore flow returns by Thursday afternoon and
prevails into Saturday. Another cold front will approach the region
on Saturday leading to winds transitioning to southwesterly once
again. The front looks to push offshore by Saturday night with
showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of and along its boundary
and northerly winds prevailing in its wake.
Batiste
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Multiple river sites, creeks, and bayous across Southeast TX
continue to have elevated flows leading them to be near or above
flood stage. The main trouble spots are along the Lavaca/Navidad and
Tres Palacios River basins in Jackson and Matagorda Counties,
western Harris County (Cypress Creek, Mound Creek, Spring Creek,
Live Oak Creek), portions of Montgomery County along Caney Creek and
the west fork of the San Jacinto River, portions of Walker County
along the west fork of the San Jacinto River and Bedias Creek, and
along the San Bernard River along the border of Fort Bend and
Wharton Counties.
The overall trend is that upstream sites have either crested or are
near cresting, so will need to monitor downstream gauges as they
rise towards their crest as water continues to flow through their
respective channels. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms
over the next couple of days, and with soils still saturated from
the prior days of rainfall and numerous streams still
elevated...will need to monitor the potential for additional rises
depending on where rain falls. Model guidance points toward the
greatest probability for rainfall (and the higher end of forecast
rainfall totals) being south of I-10, so sites already near or in
flood stage along the San Bernard, Lavaca, Navidad, and Tres
Palacios will need to be monitored for additional rises this
afternoon.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 65 83 65 / 40 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 85 69 84 67 / 50 30 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 72 83 72 / 30 40 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 160903
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Weak surface high pressure should be situated off the coast today
with a diffuse frontal boundary close to our northern zones. In the
upper levels, a mid-upper trof seen on water vapor imagery centered
south of the Big Bend area will drift in our direction. PW`s around
1.75" will be prevalent across the area with convective temperatures
in the 82-84 degree range. Suspect we`ll probably see some scattered
shra/tstm development get going during the afternoon...more than
likely in the coastal zones or south of I-10 where temperatures
should warm faster and a seabreeze/baybreeze initiates. Also, can`t
rule out a few along/near frontal zone well inland. The overall flow
regime is very light and storm motions will be slow. Environment
will be favorable for any localized stronger cells to produce a
couple inches of rain in a short time period...collapse and send
outflows to possibly interact/collide and regenerate another storm
or two. Very localized street flooding will be the primary hazard
during the late afternoon to early evening hours, with gusty winds
under collapsing cells secondary. Convection should mostly diminish
a few hours after sunset.
With the upper trof axis passing to our east later tonight &
Wednesday, we should see a drier airmass filtering in with PW`s
falling to ~1" and corresponding rain chances diminishing. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Tuesday)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
With slightly drier air filtering in following Wednesday`s weak cold
front and ridging aloft shifting in from the west, we`ll transition
towards a dry and hot period at the end of the work week. With PW
values quite a bit below the 75th percentile (~1.55") and plenty of
sunshine, we`ll be able to heat rather efficiently. This leads to
temperatures on Thursday topping out in the upper 80s with some
spots flirting with the low 90s. Things get a bit more toasty on
Friday as the drier air remains in place in addition to
southwesterly winds aloft becoming established ahead of an
approaching frontal system. This should lead to widespread high
temperatures in the low 90s on Friday, which would make this our
hottest day since the first week of May. Those low 90s persist
into Saturday for locations along and south of I-10 due to
prefrontal heating. I`m gonna need to make a hair appointment to
get some frosted tips, because the 90s are back!!! Well...for a
few days at least...let`s talk FROPA.
On Thursday/Friday an upper level low begins to dip down into the
Northern Plains and drifts towards the Great Lakes region (fairly
close to the Alberta Clipper track). The subsequent surface low
follows the same track as well. The low doesn`t reach its most
southern extent until its already to our east, so we won`t get in on
the climatologically cool 850mb temperatures associated with this
system. BUT we`ll still get the tail-end of the cold front. With a
1024-1026mb surface high pressure behind the front, there`s pretty
good confidence that the front will push all the way through
Southeast TX. PW values surge to 1.8"-2.0" along the frontal
boundary, so showers and thunderstorms will be possible ahead of
and along the frontal boundary. Since we miss out on the cooler
temperatures aloft, we`ll keep those warm daytime
temperatures...but at least they`ll max out in the mid to upper
80s versus the 90s. June is on the horizon, so I`ll take as many
below 90°F days as possible!
Current model trends point towards the front stalling out just
offshore and washing out. Onshore winds don`t return for a few days
though, so we`ll likely get to enjoy dew points in the mid 60s
for the latter half of the weekend and into early next week.
That`s about as good as it gets for this time of year! Ridging
aloft looks to build in again early next week, but some embedded
shortwaves and PW values around the 75th percentile (near 90th
percentile off the coast: ~1.74") should be enough to generate
our typical diurnal showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and
evening hours. With another ridge building in though, models are
hinting at an upward temperature trend going into next
week...*Tamagotchi noises intensifies*
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
A mix of VFR/MVFR ceilings expected CXO southward into mid morning
then lifting. Further north and closer to a weak surface frontal
zone, MVFR-IFR ceilings will be slower to lift...but should too make
it toward VFR territory by early afternoon. Expecting some scattered
shra/tstm development to initiate in the 18-20z timeframe as temps
make their way into the lower 80s. More favorable locations will be
along & south of I-10, but outflows from these storms could make
their way further north into the metro area during the late
afternoon & early evening before dissipating. Suspect most areas
will be VFR overnight with some mid-high level overcast cloud cover,
but may need to watch for patchy fog development should the thicker
decks not materialize. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Relatively benign period expected for the next several days as light
winds and 1-3 ft seas prevail. Afternoon chances for showers and
thunderstorms continues into Wednesday before conditions trend drier
following a weak cold front pushing offshore. Winds will briefly be
northerly before taking a westerly to southwesterly turn going into
late Wednesday. Onshore flow returns by Thursday afternoon and
prevails into Saturday. Another cold front will approach the region
on Saturday leading to winds transitioning to southwesterly once
again. The front looks to push offshore by Saturday night with
showers and thunderstorms possible ahead of and along its boundary
and northerly winds prevailing in its wake.
Batiste
&&
.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 403 AM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Multiple river sites, creeks, and bayous across Southeast TX
continue to have elevated flows leading them to be near or above
flood stage. The main trouble spots are along the Lavaca/Navidad and
Tres Palacios River basins in Jackson and Matagorda Counties,
western Harris County (Cypress Creek, Mound Creek, Spring Creek,
Live Oak Creek), portions of Montgomery County along Caney Creek and
the west fork of the San Jacinto River, portions of Walker County
along the west fork of the San Jacinto River and Bedias Creek, and
along the San Bernard River along the border of Fort Bend and
Wharton Counties.
The overall trend is that upstream sites have either crested or are
near cresting, so will need to monitor downstream gauges as they
rise towards their crest as water continues to flow through their
respective channels. There are chances for showers and thunderstorms
over the next couple of days, and with soils still saturated from
the prior days of rainfall and numerous streams still
elevated...will need to monitor the potential for additional rises
depending on where rain falls. Model guidance points toward the
greatest probability for rainfall (and the higher end of forecast
rainfall totals) being south of I-10, so sites already near or in
flood stage along the San Bernard, Lavaca, Navidad, and Tres
Palacios will need to be monitored for additional rises this
afternoon.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 65 83 65 / 40 20 10 0
Houston (IAH) 85 69 84 67 / 50 30 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 72 83 72 / 30 40 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste
Getting dark near the coast in a hurry.
Clouds today and tomorrow with widely scattered showers. Looks like some action near the coast - good to see those south of I-10 get more rain. We're good for now. More clouds - every day is my wish!
However, the forecast for Thursday and Friday looks hot...then a sneaky FROPA for the weekend cooling us to the low 80s again, lows in the mid, possibly lower 60s. Not too bad!
However, the forecast for Thursday and Friday looks hot...then a sneaky FROPA for the weekend cooling us to the low 80s again, lows in the mid, possibly lower 60s. Not too bad!
Carwash down in Freeport right now.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4500
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Scatted showers and storms are expected to develop across SE
Texas this afternoon. Storm chances are highest in areas at and
south of KIAH, especially during the late afternoon with support
from the sea breeze. These storms will generally be slow moving in
nature, capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Showers and storms taper off this evening with light and
variable winds expected overnight. Patchy fog could briefly
develop across portions of SE Texas during the early morning hours
of Wednesday, especially at KLBX and KCXO. Any fog/low decks
should clear out after sunrise. VFR conditions and N/NW winds
should then prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.
03
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1227 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023
Scatted showers and storms are expected to develop across SE
Texas this afternoon. Storm chances are highest in areas at and
south of KIAH, especially during the late afternoon with support
from the sea breeze. These storms will generally be slow moving in
nature, capable of producing gusty winds and locally heavy
rainfall. Showers and storms taper off this evening with light and
variable winds expected overnight. Patchy fog could briefly
develop across portions of SE Texas during the early morning hours
of Wednesday, especially at KLBX and KCXO. Any fog/low decks
should clear out after sunrise. VFR conditions and N/NW winds
should then prevail through the remainder of the TAF period.
03
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
After today we turn the atmospheric faucet off and crank up the heat, highs in the low 90’s, yuck!
I’m experiencing one of the craziest thunderstorms I’ve ever seen in League City right now. Hail, damaging winds, flooding. This is really wild.
Been here for years since Katrina.
Pool timeStratton20 wrote: ↑Tue May 16, 2023 3:22 pm After today we turn the atmospheric faucet off and crank up the heat, highs in the low 90’s, yuck!
🤿
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Its a washout here, didnt think any of those cells down around the coast today would move that far north
Enjoy it. Might not see it again for a long time.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue May 16, 2023 5:01 pm Its a washout here, didnt think any of those cells down around the coast today would move that far north
I could see it being relatively dry for the rest of the month but return to some rain sometime in June.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4251
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Yep, high pressure looks to dominate our weather for probably the remainder of the month, probably won’t see widespread rain chances again until early June, as i like to call it the “ Big Suck Pattern” is coming
Flash Flood Warning
TXC201-170030-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FF.W.0013.230516T2306Z-230517T0030Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Flash Flood Warning
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
606 PM CDT Tue May 16 2023
The National Weather Service in League City has issued a
* Flash Flood Warning for...
Harris County in southeastern Texas...
* Until 730 PM CDT.
* At 606 PM CDT, Doppler radar and automated rain gauges indicated
thunderstorms producing heavy rain across the warned area. Up to 3
inches of rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts up to 2
inches are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is already
occurring.
HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.
SOURCE...Radar and automated gauges.
IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.
* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Humble, East Little York / Homestead, East Houston, southeastern
Bush Intercontinental Airport, Eastex / Jensen Area, southwestern
Atascocita and Lake Houston.
This includes the following Low Water Crossings...
US 59 at Beltway 8 North, Lone Oak Road at tributary of Halls Bayou
and Driveway (Meadow Brook).
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
Turn around, don`t drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
Be aware of your surroundings and do not drive on flooded roads.
I don't know...to me it looks like Sunday *could* be similar to today.With a stronger frontal boundary moving through with a disturbance coming in from the subtropical jet at the same time.Wouldn't be surprised to see rain chances go up if theirs mesoscale support in a couple of days.(Nothing crazy just 50% coverage of garden variety storms with locally heavy rain)Just like yesterday and today not expecting a complete washout at this time though.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue May 16, 2023 5:51 pmEnjoy it. Might not see it again for a long time.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue May 16, 2023 5:01 pm Its a washout here, didnt think any of those cells down around the coast today would move that far north
I could see it being relatively dry for the rest of the month but return to some rain sometime in June.
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
I agree. The pattern doesn't look very static at all. It certainly looks nothing like last year at this time. Personally, I wouldn't be surprised to see some surprise storms later this month. Also, I think June will be wet because wet Mays are usually followed by wet Junes.don wrote: ↑Tue May 16, 2023 6:53 pmI don't know...to me it looks like Sunday *could* be similar to today.With a stronger frontal boundary moving through with a disturbance coming in from the subtropical jet at the same time.Wouldn't be surprised to see rain chances go up if theirs mesoscale support in a couple of days.(Nothing crazy just 50% coverage of garden variety storms with locally heavy rain)Just like yesterday and today not expecting a complete washout at this time though.Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue May 16, 2023 5:51 pmEnjoy it. Might not see it again for a long time.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue May 16, 2023 5:01 pm Its a washout here, didnt think any of those cells down around the coast today would move that far north
I could see it being relatively dry for the rest of the month but return to some rain sometime in June.
Massive, tall t-storms exploding around Brenham. One of the smaller cells drifted just N of Navasota...but never got here. We had a really nice view, though - I wish I had taken a picture.
Nice northerly breeze here behind the front. It was a perfect evening to mow the front lawn. No dripping sweat just yet as temps are in the 70s.
Nice northerly breeze here behind the front. It was a perfect evening to mow the front lawn. No dripping sweat just yet as temps are in the 70s.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4500
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 171137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Clear skies, light winds, low dewpoint depressions, and the presence
of saturated soils from today`s rains will support the development
of patchy fog through the remainder of the overnight period and into
the Wednesday morning commute. While widespread and/or dense fog is
not expected, typically prone areas may experience periods of
reduced visibilities during this time. Fog is expected to dissipate
after sunrise upon diurnal heating.
Marginally drier air remains in place over SE TX as light northerly
surface winds along with the lack of LLJ moisture transport have
prevailed as the midlevel trough responsible for recent convective
activity has pushed off to the east. As such, any thunderstorms that
develop today will be largely diurnally driven and will be mainly
focused along the immediate coastline during the late
morning/afternoon. High temperatures will reach the mid/upper 80s
today, which should result in easily achievable convective
temperatures and a stray storm or two further north cannot totally
be ruled out. However, the presence of a robust inversion near 850mb
will be difficult to overcome and as such have kept PoP values
around 20-30% in this morning`s forecast package.
Overnight, continued clear conditions and a lack of WAA will allow
for lows to generally cool into the mid/upper 60s for most
locations. Warmer and more humid conditions return on Thursday as
broad surface high pressure establishes itself to our NE and a weak
surface low develops over the TX Panhandle. Most locations should
reach highs in the upper 80s as dew points begin to slowly crawl
back into the 70s. Thunderstorm chances will be inhibited by a lack
of forcing as well as the continued presence of the aforementioned
temperature inversion. Overnight lows on Thursday will once again
settle into the mid/upper 60s, with values along the immediate coast
in the lower 70s.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Upper level ridging across Mexico & Western Gulf Coast into Tx
should lead to warmer wx and lower chances of showers/storms than
we`ve seen the past several days. One exception might be on
Saturday when a diffuse frontal boundary sags into the area.
Daytime heating, 1.7-2.0" PW`s pooling ahead of the wind shift,
and potential seabreeze might be enough to trigger some isolated
to scattered precip. The front should eventually wash out just
offshore Sunday. Broad surface high pressure stretching from the
eastern US into the central Gulf Coast states should keep some
recycled drier air in place across a good part of the area into
early next week, but can`t rule out some isolated diurnally
driven precip across southwest parts of the CWA as light onshore
winds resume. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
VFR conditions will generally continue for the duration of the
upcoming TAF period, although a few brief periods of MVFR to IFR
visibility cannot be ruled out as patchy fog remains a possibility
over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, light NW winds will
reach around 6-8 knots this afternoon, with scattered to broken
decks developing around 4000-6000ft. A few scattered storms are
possible along the immediate coast (i.e. south of HOU) during the
afternoon but otherwise there are no significant concerns for this
period.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Elevated flow from the San Jacinto River may result in higher than
normal currents near the upper Houston Ship Channel for the next
couple of days. Otherwise, light winds and low seas will prevail
through the weekend into early next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 65 88 68 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 67 89 70 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 74 84 74 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...47
FXUS64 KHGX 171137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Clear skies, light winds, low dewpoint depressions, and the presence
of saturated soils from today`s rains will support the development
of patchy fog through the remainder of the overnight period and into
the Wednesday morning commute. While widespread and/or dense fog is
not expected, typically prone areas may experience periods of
reduced visibilities during this time. Fog is expected to dissipate
after sunrise upon diurnal heating.
Marginally drier air remains in place over SE TX as light northerly
surface winds along with the lack of LLJ moisture transport have
prevailed as the midlevel trough responsible for recent convective
activity has pushed off to the east. As such, any thunderstorms that
develop today will be largely diurnally driven and will be mainly
focused along the immediate coastline during the late
morning/afternoon. High temperatures will reach the mid/upper 80s
today, which should result in easily achievable convective
temperatures and a stray storm or two further north cannot totally
be ruled out. However, the presence of a robust inversion near 850mb
will be difficult to overcome and as such have kept PoP values
around 20-30% in this morning`s forecast package.
Overnight, continued clear conditions and a lack of WAA will allow
for lows to generally cool into the mid/upper 60s for most
locations. Warmer and more humid conditions return on Thursday as
broad surface high pressure establishes itself to our NE and a weak
surface low develops over the TX Panhandle. Most locations should
reach highs in the upper 80s as dew points begin to slowly crawl
back into the 70s. Thunderstorm chances will be inhibited by a lack
of forcing as well as the continued presence of the aforementioned
temperature inversion. Overnight lows on Thursday will once again
settle into the mid/upper 60s, with values along the immediate coast
in the lower 70s.
Cady
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Upper level ridging across Mexico & Western Gulf Coast into Tx
should lead to warmer wx and lower chances of showers/storms than
we`ve seen the past several days. One exception might be on
Saturday when a diffuse frontal boundary sags into the area.
Daytime heating, 1.7-2.0" PW`s pooling ahead of the wind shift,
and potential seabreeze might be enough to trigger some isolated
to scattered precip. The front should eventually wash out just
offshore Sunday. Broad surface high pressure stretching from the
eastern US into the central Gulf Coast states should keep some
recycled drier air in place across a good part of the area into
early next week, but can`t rule out some isolated diurnally
driven precip across southwest parts of the CWA as light onshore
winds resume. 47
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 634 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
VFR conditions will generally continue for the duration of the
upcoming TAF period, although a few brief periods of MVFR to IFR
visibility cannot be ruled out as patchy fog remains a possibility
over the next couple of hours. Otherwise, light NW winds will
reach around 6-8 knots this afternoon, with scattered to broken
decks developing around 4000-6000ft. A few scattered storms are
possible along the immediate coast (i.e. south of HOU) during the
afternoon but otherwise there are no significant concerns for this
period.
Cady
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 246 AM CDT Wed May 17 2023
Elevated flow from the San Jacinto River may result in higher than
normal currents near the upper Houston Ship Channel for the next
couple of days. Otherwise, light winds and low seas will prevail
through the weekend into early next week. 47
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 65 88 68 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 67 89 70 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 84 74 84 74 / 20 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....47
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...47
Curious to see if we repeat yesterday. Clouds are already bubbling up pretty good down in Freeport