Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 8:23 pm
The 18z RGEM has a band of 6-10 inches in some of our western counties tomorrow fwiw
The RGEM model definitely has my attention.
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Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 8:24 pm
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 8:48 pm
The FV3 model has more than 14 inches in portions of Wharton and Colorado counties.(FWIW) It will be interesting to see what the 0Z runs show.
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 8:50 pm
A huge swath of rain making its way toward the Humble area
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 9:11 pm
Just emptied another 1.72”
More coming folks
More coming folks
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 9:45 pm
00z FV3 is significantly drier than its 12z run
00z HRRR is unimpressive as well
00z HRRR is unimpressive as well
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 9:53 pm
A tricky forecast, no doubt. FV3 also not handling evening convection the best. HRRR may not be extreme, but a solid 1"-3" through tomorrow afternoon. The 00Z NAM is the wettest run of the evening (so far) with persistent banding setting up. It also initialized fairly well. We'll see.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 9:45 pm 00z FV3 is significantly drier than its 12z run
00z HRRR is unimpressive as well
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 10:25 pm
YW, I did have to go below ground for a little bit from the Supercells that came from the west.jasons2k wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 4:17 pmCrazy lightning. Thanks for sharing.Iceresistance wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 1:57 pm I didn't post much recently, May 11th was a bit scary. I made a video for it.
https://youtu.be/hQ6iCv3iQbs
Tried to record today, but the lightning proved itself finicky again...
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 11:21 pm
00z WRF ARW2 has a band of 9-12 inches while the 00z RGEM has a band of 6-10 inches over parts of se texas fwiw
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 11:27 pm
Yep here are the two WRF models and the RGEM.
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 11:47 pm
What jumps out at me with some of the latest mesoscale models forecasted 48hr QPF totals is the low accumulations over Central TX, South Central TX, and The TX Big Bend areas…The same areas that were forecasted to receive some fairly healthy rainfall amounts earlier in the week and just a day or two ago.
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sat May 13, 2023 11:59 pm
I was just about to post something very similar to this.869MB wrote: ↑Sat May 13, 2023 11:47 pm What jumps out at me with some of the latest mesoscale models forecasted 48hr QPF totals is the low accumulations over Central TX, South Central TX, and The TX Big Bend areas…The same areas that were forecasted to receive some fairly healthy rainfall amounts earlier in the week and just a day or two ago.
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sun May 14, 2023 12:04 am
Central and west texas might get completely shafted by this event, man I hope that doesnt happen for them
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sun May 14, 2023 1:00 am
Watch the leftover outflow…
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sun May 14, 2023 1:04 am
To clarify, we have new storms behind it.
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sun May 14, 2023 1:35 am
Man, that radar is lighting up quick in Fort Bend and parts west….
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sun May 14, 2023 2:12 am
The HRRR has gotten more aggressive also.
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sun May 14, 2023 2:14 am
05z HRRR is even more aggressive than that run, definitely interesting
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sun May 14, 2023 2:20 am
I think HGX may add a few counties to the flood watch in the morning.
Re: May 2023
Posted: Sun May 14, 2023 3:31 am
Damn, Matagorda County getting hit hard right now. Looks like it’s headed towards me.