75° in StarkVegas and Boca right now. 68°F in Greensboro, NC.
I'm just hoping for a DP under 75°F at night.
June 2023
Nice throw mechanics. His shoulders, arm, and elbow are in the ideal position. You have to be proud of his accomplishments.redneckweather wrote: ↑Mon Jun 19, 2023 8:04 amAwesome! I remember those days very well when my son played travel ball with the Banditos for years. One of the hottest tournaments I can remember was in Fort Meyers. Absolutely brutal 5 day tournament but our team went undefeated and won the whole damn thing. Some argue it was the best Banditos team ever assembled and there have been some great ones.MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Sun Jun 18, 2023 8:45 pm You couldn’t pay me a lot of money to live in the Valley. Brutal down there.
Got through this tournament with a championship today and my oldest walked it off in extras so that made the 110s beat indices more tolerable!
It would get into the 90's during the day, high humidity and no breeze. A storm would come through, move along, the sun would come back out and it was like a sauna.
Here is my boy back when he was 18. He is on this board so just wanted to say thank you for the awesome memories all those years son (from 9 yrs old on into college)...Go Hard or Go Home!
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-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4516
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
FXUS64 KHGX 201110
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Like the days before it, the heat - excessive even by our hardy
Southeast Texas standards - rolls on for yet another day. An
excessive heat warning continues for the vast majority of the area
again today. While some combination of excessive heat warnings
and heat advisories will be necessary tomorrow, we`re holding off
on a blanket extension, as a *slightly* cooler day may allow for
us to trim the warning area back to an advisory in some of the
area. Regardless, dangerous heat is expected to continue area-wide,
it`s just a matter of discerning the severity of the heat threat.
If you`re planning to seek some relief at the beach and in the
Gulf of Mexico, be aware the Galveston Beach patrol is flying red
flags for rip currents and a rip current statement is out for all
Gulf-facing beaches today. Whether on land or in the water, you`ll
want to be alert to the different hazards.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Dangerous heat remains the central focus for the short term as an
Upper level ridge remains positioned over the Southern
Plains/Mexico. Remnant outflow boundaries north of our area, along
with weak shortwave impulses, will attempt to tap into the ample
moisture/instability across the state. High resolution models show
isolated convection developing later this morning/this afternoon,
mainly in areas east of the I-45 corridor... though I would remain
skeptical, as there`s still plenty of subsidence to overcome.
Similar story for Wednesday, though more in the late
afternoon/evening time frame for areas north of I-10. If these
showers/storm do manage to pull together, expect some isolated
relief from the heat in areas that receive this rainfall. By in
large though, rain chances should remain low across SE Texas.
500mb heights within the midlevel ridge should remain around 594-596
dam through Wednesday night. 850mb temperatures are still expected
to range between 22-28C during this time frame, with southwesterly
flow present in the lower levels. NAEFS temperatures are still
forecasted to be above the 99th percentile, reaching the
climatological max at times. Dewpoints are largely expected to
remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s, though afternoon mixing could
bring them into the lower 70s.
Highs should range from the mid 90s to lower 100s through mid week.
Heat indices will exceed 108 degrees, reaching upwards of 117
degrees at times. Current Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Warnings remain in effect through 8 PM today. While signs point to a
brief reprieve from the heat later this week, additional advisories
and warnings will likely be warranted.
Heat safety should be practiced whenever possible. Drink plenty of
fluids and avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest
part of the day. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. Stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and
check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should
never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Know
the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Check
with your local authorities regarding the potential opening of any
cooling centers in your area.
Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year. Do not
underestimate the danger it poses.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
The beginning of the long term shows hints of the blast furnace
potentially being...well...I guess "a little less furnacey for a
couple days" would be the best way to put it. The mid-level ridge
looks to weaken just slightly, along with the 850 mb heat dome
pulling back to the southwest modestly. The difference is not a
huge one: temperatures pull back more into the middle to upper
90s, with highs of 100 restricted mostly to the hot spots in
portions of the Brazos and San Bernard Valleys west of the Houston
metro. It will still be abnormally hot and humid, but it may be
enough of a difference to let us roll more with heat advisories
than excessive heat warnings.
The weakening in the mid-level ridge does also appear to let some
subtle shortwave troughs/vort maxes roll over the area from
northwest to southeast during this short stretch as well, and so
we`ll likely be peering back towards North Texas in the middle of
the week to see what showers and storms may manage to work their
way in between late Wednesday night and Friday. I don`t get too
crazy, but periods of 20-30 percent PoPs seems reasonable.
Confidence in this "respite" (gross, advisory-level heat is a
respite now) is actually pretty high. Both the NAEFS and Euro
ensemble means show 850 mb temps backing down from continuously
maxing out the climatology to "merely" being above the 97th
percentile late in the week. The EPS Extreme Forecast Index goes
from clear signals for extreme max and min temps to dipping below
0.5 area-wide on Thursday and Friday before starting to creep back
upwards for the weekend.
And that`s where it turns out that this slight backing off of the
heat may - like communism, in my best Tim Curry voice - turn out
to be a red herring. NBM temps begin to step their way back up to
around triple digits from Saturday onward, while deterministic
model guidance shows the mid-level ridge strengthening back above
595 dm and even sliding up towards the Texas side of the Rio
Grande in the Big Bend region this weekend into early next week.
It appears that the bias correction schemes contributing to the
deterministic NBM numbers have finally figured out that it needs
to crank things up, and I`m fairly comfortable leaving them
relatively untouched going into next week.
In fact, if anything, the deterministic might be a touch too
aggressive, so that will be something to watch for. The 850 temps
in the NAEFS and EPS ensemble means do not really return to maxing
out climo next week, though they do climb back above the 99th
percentile. The EFI does rise back into the 0.5 to 0.7 range for
most of the area by early next week, however. Given that signal
for extreme heat coming back into the picture in the Euro
ensemble, for now I`m content to let the NBM ride...with the
caveat that it might be a touch overdone. Even if that were true,
it`s likely to be just modestly too hot. In the grand scheme of
things, this stretch of unseasonably early heat can be expected to
continue.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Patchy fog should burn off shortly after sunrise, with MVFR CIGS
scattering out later this morning while light to moderate
(occasionally gusty) S/SW flow develops across the region.
Isolated showers could develop in areas east of I-45 this morning
through this afternoon, though confidence is low. Just like
yesterday, winds should diminish this evening with MVFR CIGS
developing overnight. Expect these CIGS to scatter out Wednesday
morning.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Southerly winds 10 to 20 knots and 3 to 5 foot seas are expected through
the mid week before weakening somewhat Thursday and Friday.
Caution flags are up for the waters below Freeport tonight, when
15-20 knot winds should be more prevalent. Though primarily
focused over land, some low shower and thunderstorm chances will
re-enter the forecast late Wednesday through Friday, generally
for waters above Freeport. After that point, expect fair weather
to prevail again.
At the coast, the persistent southerly winds are keeping rip
current potential higher, and the Galveston Beach Patrol is flying
red flags for strong rip currents. There is enough diurnal
variation in wind direction with land/sea breeze contribution to
keep water levels in check. Though forecast tides are expected to
be above astronomical norms, water levels at times of high tide
are still expected to be around or below 2 feet above MLLW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
The heat is not limited to the daytime, and if anything continues
to be more excessive in not allowing the air to cool off as much
as usual at night. College Station tied its daily record high
minimum temperature of 82 degrees yesterday, and Hobby broke its
previous record high min of 80 with an 81 degree mark yesterday.
Record high minimum temperatures will be threatened yet again
today at all five first order climate sites, and both Houston
sites have forecast highs within a few degrees of their records
and will need watching as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 79 100 79 / 10 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 101 81 100 81 / 10 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 90 83 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-337-338-
438-439.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ335-336-436-437.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
late tonight for GMZ330-350-370.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
610 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Like the days before it, the heat - excessive even by our hardy
Southeast Texas standards - rolls on for yet another day. An
excessive heat warning continues for the vast majority of the area
again today. While some combination of excessive heat warnings
and heat advisories will be necessary tomorrow, we`re holding off
on a blanket extension, as a *slightly* cooler day may allow for
us to trim the warning area back to an advisory in some of the
area. Regardless, dangerous heat is expected to continue area-wide,
it`s just a matter of discerning the severity of the heat threat.
If you`re planning to seek some relief at the beach and in the
Gulf of Mexico, be aware the Galveston Beach patrol is flying red
flags for rip currents and a rip current statement is out for all
Gulf-facing beaches today. Whether on land or in the water, you`ll
want to be alert to the different hazards.
&&
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Dangerous heat remains the central focus for the short term as an
Upper level ridge remains positioned over the Southern
Plains/Mexico. Remnant outflow boundaries north of our area, along
with weak shortwave impulses, will attempt to tap into the ample
moisture/instability across the state. High resolution models show
isolated convection developing later this morning/this afternoon,
mainly in areas east of the I-45 corridor... though I would remain
skeptical, as there`s still plenty of subsidence to overcome.
Similar story for Wednesday, though more in the late
afternoon/evening time frame for areas north of I-10. If these
showers/storm do manage to pull together, expect some isolated
relief from the heat in areas that receive this rainfall. By in
large though, rain chances should remain low across SE Texas.
500mb heights within the midlevel ridge should remain around 594-596
dam through Wednesday night. 850mb temperatures are still expected
to range between 22-28C during this time frame, with southwesterly
flow present in the lower levels. NAEFS temperatures are still
forecasted to be above the 99th percentile, reaching the
climatological max at times. Dewpoints are largely expected to
remain in the mid 70s to lower 80s, though afternoon mixing could
bring them into the lower 70s.
Highs should range from the mid 90s to lower 100s through mid week.
Heat indices will exceed 108 degrees, reaching upwards of 117
degrees at times. Current Heat Advisories and Excessive Heat
Warnings remain in effect through 8 PM today. While signs point to a
brief reprieve from the heat later this week, additional advisories
and warnings will likely be warranted.
Heat safety should be practiced whenever possible. Drink plenty of
fluids and avoid strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest
part of the day. Wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing when
possible. Stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and
check up on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should
never be left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Know
the signs and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Check
with your local authorities regarding the potential opening of any
cooling centers in your area.
Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year. Do not
underestimate the danger it poses.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
The beginning of the long term shows hints of the blast furnace
potentially being...well...I guess "a little less furnacey for a
couple days" would be the best way to put it. The mid-level ridge
looks to weaken just slightly, along with the 850 mb heat dome
pulling back to the southwest modestly. The difference is not a
huge one: temperatures pull back more into the middle to upper
90s, with highs of 100 restricted mostly to the hot spots in
portions of the Brazos and San Bernard Valleys west of the Houston
metro. It will still be abnormally hot and humid, but it may be
enough of a difference to let us roll more with heat advisories
than excessive heat warnings.
The weakening in the mid-level ridge does also appear to let some
subtle shortwave troughs/vort maxes roll over the area from
northwest to southeast during this short stretch as well, and so
we`ll likely be peering back towards North Texas in the middle of
the week to see what showers and storms may manage to work their
way in between late Wednesday night and Friday. I don`t get too
crazy, but periods of 20-30 percent PoPs seems reasonable.
Confidence in this "respite" (gross, advisory-level heat is a
respite now) is actually pretty high. Both the NAEFS and Euro
ensemble means show 850 mb temps backing down from continuously
maxing out the climatology to "merely" being above the 97th
percentile late in the week. The EPS Extreme Forecast Index goes
from clear signals for extreme max and min temps to dipping below
0.5 area-wide on Thursday and Friday before starting to creep back
upwards for the weekend.
And that`s where it turns out that this slight backing off of the
heat may - like communism, in my best Tim Curry voice - turn out
to be a red herring. NBM temps begin to step their way back up to
around triple digits from Saturday onward, while deterministic
model guidance shows the mid-level ridge strengthening back above
595 dm and even sliding up towards the Texas side of the Rio
Grande in the Big Bend region this weekend into early next week.
It appears that the bias correction schemes contributing to the
deterministic NBM numbers have finally figured out that it needs
to crank things up, and I`m fairly comfortable leaving them
relatively untouched going into next week.
In fact, if anything, the deterministic might be a touch too
aggressive, so that will be something to watch for. The 850 temps
in the NAEFS and EPS ensemble means do not really return to maxing
out climo next week, though they do climb back above the 99th
percentile. The EFI does rise back into the 0.5 to 0.7 range for
most of the area by early next week, however. Given that signal
for extreme heat coming back into the picture in the Euro
ensemble, for now I`m content to let the NBM ride...with the
caveat that it might be a touch overdone. Even if that were true,
it`s likely to be just modestly too hot. In the grand scheme of
things, this stretch of unseasonably early heat can be expected to
continue.
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 515 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Patchy fog should burn off shortly after sunrise, with MVFR CIGS
scattering out later this morning while light to moderate
(occasionally gusty) S/SW flow develops across the region.
Isolated showers could develop in areas east of I-45 this morning
through this afternoon, though confidence is low. Just like
yesterday, winds should diminish this evening with MVFR CIGS
developing overnight. Expect these CIGS to scatter out Wednesday
morning.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Southerly winds 10 to 20 knots and 3 to 5 foot seas are expected through
the mid week before weakening somewhat Thursday and Friday.
Caution flags are up for the waters below Freeport tonight, when
15-20 knot winds should be more prevalent. Though primarily
focused over land, some low shower and thunderstorm chances will
re-enter the forecast late Wednesday through Friday, generally
for waters above Freeport. After that point, expect fair weather
to prevail again.
At the coast, the persistent southerly winds are keeping rip
current potential higher, and the Galveston Beach Patrol is flying
red flags for strong rip currents. There is enough diurnal
variation in wind direction with land/sea breeze contribution to
keep water levels in check. Though forecast tides are expected to
be above astronomical norms, water levels at times of high tide
are still expected to be around or below 2 feet above MLLW.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 334 AM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
The heat is not limited to the daytime, and if anything continues
to be more excessive in not allowing the air to cool off as much
as usual at night. College Station tied its daily record high
minimum temperature of 82 degrees yesterday, and Hobby broke its
previous record high min of 80 with an 81 degree mark yesterday.
Record high minimum temperatures will be threatened yet again
today at all five first order climate sites, and both Houston
sites have forecast highs within a few degrees of their records
and will need watching as well.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 100 79 100 79 / 10 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 101 81 100 81 / 10 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 90 83 / 10 10 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-337-338-
438-439.
Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ335-336-436-437.
High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from this evening through
late tonight for GMZ330-350-370.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Luchs
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4282
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I dont see rain chances potentially returning until after the first week of july, this truely is the worst kind of weather pattern to be stuck in, id rather deal with flooding rains than with this heat wave crap, it just sucks lol
Beaumont getting some good heat relief now. It’s raining! Hallelujah!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
As much "envy" as your post could invoke ... your overall situation actually bodes pretty well regarding the forecasts as a whole: it provides strong evidence that the ridge is weaker (or more easily erodable) than many predications would have us believe. Especially since a lot of models (even short ranges like HRRR and NAM) did not depict near the amount of convection that is happening in your area right now (if anything, they were rather bone dry).
Last edited by user:null on Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:07 pm, edited 1 time in total.
At least a week and a half more of this crap weather.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4516
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Scattered showers/thunderstorms are managing to move north to south
across the eastern portions of the CWA so far today...with the bulk
of the activity just outside the radii for our terminals along I-45.
Will keep a brief mention of VCSH in at a couple of these locations
this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the day should be mostly VFR
with south winds 7-13kts and gusts up to 24kts. MVFR ceilings to re-
turn tonight along with some patchy BR in place until after sunrise
tomorrow. Rain chances are going to be a little better tomorrow for
the central to eastern portions of the region. 41
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1239 PM CDT Tue Jun 20 2023
Scattered showers/thunderstorms are managing to move north to south
across the eastern portions of the CWA so far today...with the bulk
of the activity just outside the radii for our terminals along I-45.
Will keep a brief mention of VCSH in at a couple of these locations
this afternoon. Otherwise, the rest of the day should be mostly VFR
with south winds 7-13kts and gusts up to 24kts. MVFR ceilings to re-
turn tonight along with some patchy BR in place until after sunrise
tomorrow. Rain chances are going to be a little better tomorrow for
the central to eastern portions of the region. 41
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4282
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
12z Euro really amplifies the death ridge right over texas, folks its going be probably at least 2-3 weeks before we see any widespread rains return, its looking really really bad
has several 105 degree+ readings over the next 10 days in se texas
has several 105 degree+ readings over the next 10 days in se texas
So much for the big bad El Nino that was suppose to help us.
Honestly, I think the El Nino actually makes things worse regarding summer weather (at least, in the preceding/building period, if not the actual period). It boosts warm waters in the equatorial Pacific, which restrains convection there, keeping the Hadley Cell/subtropical jet stream from expanding north. That southernly focus is why the heat is even as bad as it is now: if the ridge were farther north, temps would be cooler (even if still dry).
Even the 12z EURO depicts this: the ridge is literally over Texas, but the overall orientation/size means that the hottest 850mb/750mb temps are away from the Houston area, meaning less heat (and actually some chances of storms, streamers show up along the TX coast towards the run time).
Even the 12z EURO depicts this: the ridge is literally over Texas, but the overall orientation/size means that the hottest 850mb/750mb temps are away from the Houston area, meaning less heat (and actually some chances of storms, streamers show up along the TX coast towards the run time).
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4282
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
That GFS run would be nice, basically backs the death ridge off to the west and allows for some general troughiness to move in from the gulf of mexico, maybe even a little tropical mischief, much better than what the euro shows
Been a comfortable 84 with continuous LIGHT rain and cloud cover since about 11am. I need to enjoy it now because Its not going to last I know. Gives us in the triangle and our ACs a break. Hopefully tomorrow it inches closer to the metro.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Better hope that the 12z WRF-ARWs (both of them) verify for tomorrow night!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 2:53 pm That GFS run would be nice, basically backs the death ridge off to the west and allows for some general troughiness to move in from the gulf of mexico, maybe even a little tropical mischief, much better than what the euro shows
Last edited by user:null on Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
-
captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 405
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
I also made the point earlier this month that El Niño really doesn't have much of an effect on summer precip anyway. It also tends to not have a huge impact on fall precip. I'll have to find my data sheet from my project, but I know one year back in the 1970s or 1960s, a huge El Niño event occurred and my case study point in Lafayette, LA recorded a trace amount of rain the entire month of October for that year! On the other hand, El Niño does tend to help out quite a bit for winter and spring storms. There was a pretty strong correlation between precip and ENSO for those seasons.
Right, there will be erosion of the ridge west over the next 2-3 days before a return to your regularly scheduled program. The eastern edge of the ridge is probably just east of Liberty.user:null wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 1:25 pmAs much "envy" as your post could invoke ... your overall situation actually bodes pretty well regarding the forecasts as a whole: it provides strong evidence that the ridge is weaker (or more easily erodable) than many predications would have us believe. Especially since a lot of models (even short ranges like HRRR and NAM) did not depict near the amount of convection that is happening in your area right now (if anything, they were rather bone dry).
A smorgasbord of MCS solutions that could work for us in CLL.user:null wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:10 pmYou're going to like the 12z WRF-ARW model for tomorrow night!Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Jun 20, 2023 2:53 pm That GFS run would be nice, basically backs the death ridge off to the west and allows for some general troughiness to move in from the gulf of mexico, maybe even a little tropical mischief, much better than what the euro shows
Fingers crossed- Attachments
-
-
-
Andddd rolling blackouts going on already. Power went off 5 min ago.. Great.