Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Jun 14, 2023 3:28 pm
Id take that trade off, higher temps but lower dew points, i can handle 100+ degrees, but not with high humidity lol
That is more tolerable.
I thought about mowing this evening, but the heat index was still way of a 100°F with the sun setting, the wind dying and a DP of 77°F. I've had some blasted summer cold...for the first time ever.
When the temps allegedly soar tomorrow that DP better drop!
Up here in CLL the highs have been only 1-2°F below predicted. But we've had more clouds than expected.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
639 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
...DANGEROUS HEAT TO CONTINUE TODAY AND WILL PERSIST INTO NEXT
WEEK...
Dry, hot and humid weather will persist with unpleasant afternoons
heat index values up to 112°F across the entire region. The main
message continues to be to practice heat safety whenever you are. A
Heat Advisory remains in effect for Southeast TX from 11 AM this
morning through 8 PM Friday. Visit weather.gov/heat for heat safety
information. In addition to the heat, use extra caution if you are
heading out to the beach as dangerous currents are expected. Read
more about the beach forecast in the Marine section.
TODAY: The area remains under the influence of a broad upper
ridge centered over Mexico/southwestern Gulf. At the surface, a
quasi-stationary boundary extending just north of TX will
continue to pull a warmer and more humid airmass into the region
within the southerly flow. The mid to upper level ridge axis will
slightly move overhead today, shifting the flow to a more
southwesterly component aloft and at 850:925 mb levels. This will
allow for even warmer temperatures at the sfc. Highs from the
upper 90s to near 101°F can be expected. The combination of hot
temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s will lead to
heat index values well above the actual temperature.
TONIGHT: Another warm night is expected with mostly cloudy skies
and areas of fog near daybreak. Lows will range from the mid 70s
to low 80s.
FRIDAY: Dangerous heat remains the primary concern with the
upper- level ridge strengthening again (500 mb heights ~ 592 - 594
dam) and gradually building northward. Highs in the upper 90s can
be expected for most locations with some spots reaching the 100°F
mark. Again, the combination of hot air temperature and humidity
will once again lead to an uncomfortable day with peak heat
indices up to 112°F.
FRIDAY NIGHT: Another warm and cloudy night with overnight lows
in the upper 70s to low 80s. With a sfc boundary still remaining
just north of our area, and several shortwaves riding along the
zonal flow aloft, some isolated rain/storm cannot be ruled out
across our far northern counties. Confidence is very low, as dry
air seems to prevail; thus have only kept up to 15 percent PoPs
across Houston County in the evening.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Little in the way of changes for the long term forecast. Ridging
should continue across the Southern Plains/Mexico through mid next
week. Peak 500mb height within the midlevel ridge should remain near
594-595 dam, with robust subsidence still progged to suppress rain
chances, even as weak disturbances pass just north of the region.
850mb temperatures should still be around 22-28C during this time
frame, with southwesterly flow present at this level. NAEFS 850mb
temperatures are still above the 99th percentile, nearing the
climatological max at times through mid next week. Global ensembles
still show hot conditions continuing beyond Wednesday, with no clear
end in sight from these hot conditions.
Highs from Saturday to Wednesday should be in the upper 90s to lower
100s. Heat indices will likely exceed 108 degrees, warranting
heat advisories daily. Excessive heat warnings could be needed for
Saturday as heat indices exceed 113 degrees.
Given this prolonged period of dangerous heat, Heat safety should be
practiced as much as possible. Drink plenty of fluids and avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day.
Stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up
on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be
left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Know the signs
and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight
and loose fitting clothing when possible. Check with your local
authorities regarding the potential opening of any cooling centers
in your area.
Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year. Do not
underestimate the danger it poses to yourself and others.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
A persistence forecast for this TAFs cycle. SCT to BKN MVFR
ceilings and patchy fog will continue through mid-morning, then
VFR conditions are expected through the rest of the day. Breezy
south to southwest winds are expected this afternoon with gusts up
to 20 knots. MVFR to occasional IFR conditions due to low
clouds/stratus and areas of fog return late this evening into the
overnight hours at all sites.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are expected
through mid next week. Caution flags could be needed at times. These
onshore winds will bring a high risk of rip currents over the next
several days.
03
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 335 AM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Here are the record high temperatures and record high minimum
temperatures for the rest of the week and over the weekend.
College Station (CLL) (records date back to 1889):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Thu (15th) 106 set in 1911 84 set in 1902
-Fri (16th) 104 set in 1901 85 set in 1902
-Sat (17th) 108 set in 1901 81 set in 1902
-Sun (18th) 106 set in 1894 82 set in 1902
Houston (IAH) (records date back to 1889):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Thu (15th) 100 set in 2011 81 set in 2022
-Fri (16th) 100 set in 1902 80 set in 1958
-Sat (17th) 100 set in 2011 82 set in 2011
-Sun (18th) 103 set in 1918 82 set in 2011
Houston Hobby(HOU) (records date back to 1931):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Thu (15th) 101 set in 1998 80 set in 2022
-Fri (16th) 100 set in 1963 80 set in 1958
-Sat (17th) 102 set in 1934 81 set in 2011
-Sun (18th) 101 set in 1934 83 set in 1998
Galveston (GLS)(records date back to 1874):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Thu (15th) 93 set in 2022 85 set in 2022
-Fri (16th) 96 set in 1934 83 set in 2022
-Sat (17th) 95 set in 1901 83 set in 1994
-Sun (18th) 99 set in 1918 84 set in 2022
Palacios (PSX) (records date back to 1943):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Thu (15th) 96 set in 1948 83 set in 2022
-Fri (16th) 93 set in 2022 83 set in 2022
-Sat (17th) 96 set in 1943 83 set in 2013
-Sun (18th) 93 set in 2022 83 set in 2013
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 8 PM CDT Friday for
TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-
335>338-436>439.
High Rip Current Risk through late Sunday night for TXZ436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jun 15, 2023 12:18 am
Man that 00z GFS is absolutely brutal talk about a blast furnace, thats phoenix arizona kinda of heat
And what is really funny is that the GFS has the ridge build right on top of Texas towards the end of the run yet temperatures are cooler? That makes zero sense especially when it is showing wind off the Gulf right now with these extreme highs. These models just go crazy with ridges. I remember last summer the Euro and GFS showed Georgia having a new all-time record high. I think the temperature ended up being 20-25 degrees cooler than modeled.
Looks like we could see an early season MDR storm, should be a fish storm, but would be very interesting to see if we get anything out of that region since its still very early for that part of the basin to wake up
TION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
VFR conditions continue through the rest of the afternoon and into
the evening, with cloud cover remaining scattered at most. Winds
remain out of the S/SW at around 10 knots, with a few higher gusts
expected throughout most of the area. MVFR cigs will redevelop
once again overnight, along with the potential for some patchy fog
similar to what was observed last night. These cigs should scatter
out around 15Z tomorrow morning, with VFR conditions and moderate
SE winds occuring once again over the course of the day.
Humidity 60%
Wind Speed S 13 G 20 mph
Barometer 29.79 in (1008.6 mb)
Dewpoint 79°F (26°C)
Visibility 10.00 mi
Heat Index 113°F (45°C)
Last update 15 Jun 12:53 pm CDT
Meanwhile, Galveston is enjoying an 83 degrees lunchtime dew pt. Good for delaying wrinkles.
Edit: Wow, we've got a ways to go, I see the highest US dew pt ever was 90 degrees.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1257 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
...New UPDATE, AVIATION...
.MID-DAY UPDATE...
Issued at 1246 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023
Observed heat index values have so far outpaced those of yesterday
by around 5-8 degrees across the board, as near-surface dew point
values have remained notably elevated compared to yesterday. We
have reached Heat Advisory conditions across most of the area and
even at times have approached Warning-level conditions (HI of
113). Highs still appear poised to hit the triple digits across
portions of the area today. This trend will be considered in the
afternoon package when making a determination for heat-related
Watches/Warnings/Advisories for the next couple of days.
HiRes models continue to depict convection staying north of our
area, but there`s a nonzero chance that an isolated storm or two
associated with the development to our north will move into the
far northern counties later tonight. Given this, a small portion
of the area remains situated in a Marginal Risk area from the SPC
in this afternoon`s update.
Remember when some of y’all said there didn’t look to be a death ridge setting up? Yeah, I want that back. Lol
I cannot ever remember being this hot before and I grew up in extreme South Louisiana. No rain anywhere in sight. Yay.
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Key Messages:
- Dangerous heat is likely to continue through at least next week.
- Excessive Heat Warnings are in effect for most of Southeast TX
from today through Saturday evening.
- It is strongly encourage to keep practicing heat safety,
especially if you have outdoor activities during the holiday
weekend.
- Hazardous beach conditions are expected with a high risk of rip
currents along all Gulf-facing beaches through early next week.
No significant changes were made to the forecast. Dangerous heat
will continue through the short term period. The strong mid-upper
level ridging centered over Mexico will gradually build northward
into TX today into the weekend. This will result in even hotter
and more humid conditions. With forecast high temperatures in the
upper 90s to 101°F (which is actually near-record high at some
locations) and sfc dewpoints in the 70s, expect afternoon heat
indices close to or exceeding the 113 °F today and Saturday at
most locations. Dry air aloft could mix slightly stronger winds
down to the surface at a few locations; therefore, breezy
southerly winds can be expected in the afternoon, particularly
over the coastal zones.
With that being said, the Excessive Heat Watch has been upgraded
to a warning and is in effect from 11AM today through 8PM
Saturday. A Heat Advisory is in effect across the coastal counties
and barrier islands from 11AM today through 8PM Saturday. Given
the trends in temperatures and heat indices, an upgrade to a
Warning may be needed at some coastal counties by Saturday.
Warm and muggy nights are likely with overnight lows generally
from the upper 70s (inland) to low 80s along the coast, and a few
locations in the Houston metro area. Patchy fog will also be
possible.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Still no significant changes to the long term forecast. Ridging
should continue across the Southern Plains/Mexico through the later
half of next week. Peak 500mb height within the midlevel ridge
should remain near 594-596 dam, with robust subsidence still progged
to suppress rain chances, even as weak disturbances pass overhead.
850mb temperatures should still be around 22-28C during this time
frame, with southwesterly flow present at this level. NAEFS 850mb
temperatures are still above the 99th percentile, nearing the
climatological max at times through the later half of next week.
Global ensembles still show hot conditions continuing beyond
Thursday, with no clear end in sight for this dangerous heat wave.
Highs from Sunday to Thursday should be in the upper 90s to lower
100s. Heat indices will exceed 108 degrees, warranting Heat
Advisories and/or Excessive Heat Warnings daily.
Given this prolonged period of dangerous heat, Heat safety should be
practiced as much as possible. Drink plenty of fluids and avoid
strenuous outdoor activities during the hottest part of the day.
Stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up
on relatives and neighbors. Young children and pets should never be
left unattended in vehicles under any circumstances. Know the signs
and symptoms of heat exhaustion and heat stroke. Wear lightweight
and loose fitting clothing when possible. Check with your local
authorities regarding the potential opening of any cooling centers
in your area.
Heat is the #1 weather-related killer in the U.S. each year. Do not
underestimate the danger it poses to yourself and others.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 713 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
A persistence aviation forecast through this TAF cycle. SCT to BKN
MVFR conditions due low clouds/stratus and areas of fog will
continue through mid-morning. Then, VFR conditions with light to
moderate south to southwesterly winds are expected for the rest of
the day. MVFR conditions and reduced visibility are again
possible late this evening into the overnight hours across all
terminals.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 4 to 5 ft seas are expected
through late next week. Caution flags could be needed at times.
These onshore winds will bring a high risk of rip currents to Gulf-
facing beaches over the next several days.
03
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 324 AM CDT Fri Jun 16 2023
Here are the record high temperatures and record high minimum
temperatures for the end of the week and over the weekend.
College Station (CLL) (records date back to 1889):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Fri (16th) 104 set in 1901 85 set in 1902
-Sat (17th) 108 set in 1901 81 set in 1902
-Sun (18th) 106 set in 1894 82 set in 1902
Houston (IAH) (records date back to 1889):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Fri (16th) 100 set in 1902 80 set in 1958
-Sat (17th) 100 set in 2011 82 set in 2011
-Sun (18th) 103 set in 1918 82 set in 2011
Houston Hobby(HOU) (records date back to 1931):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Fri (16th) 100 set in 1963 80 set in 1958
-Sat (17th) 102 set in 1934 81 set in 2011
-Sun (18th) 101 set in 1934 83 set in 1998
Galveston (GLS)(records date back to 1874):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Fri (16th) 96 set in 1934 83 set in 2022
-Sat (17th) 95 set in 1901 83 set in 1994
-Sun (18th) 99 set in 1918 84 set in 2022
Palacios (PSX) (records date back to 1943):
Record Highs Record High Mins
-Fri (16th) 93 set in 2022 83 set in 2022
-Sat (17th) 96 set in 1943 83 set in 2013
-Sun (18th) 93 set in 2022 83 set in 2013
Interesting that both the EURO and GFS bring the upper level low that's over the SE towards us as it moves underneath the ridge late month.That would bring us some relief with temps and rain,we'll see...
