June 2023

[jasons2k]

Rain with thunder here now. Still raining. Enough to postpone the watering for a couple of days.

[tireman4]

Raining in Humble

[DoctorMu]

Once the Death ridge gets settled over Austin about the 14th, POW Ponder believes it will park there for at least 2 weeks. There's an upper level low over Vegas/ Northern Arizona that is forcing the westerlies, moisture, and energy over the top, allowing the Mexican ridge to cross the Rio Grande and head straight for the Governor's mansion...

We really need some more rain. There will be s/w's through Sunday. Gonna need some luck. Everything is green right now. I hate to see it all tank and turn yellow and brownish, even with the sprinklers. Gotta pick up some fresh Sta-Green fertilizer - high nitrogen + 2% iron to deal with our alkaline water.

[Stratton20]

I think we will be just fine, not really concerned with massive drought issues with the death ridge as eventually it will break down as well, as they say, nothing lasts forever

[TexasBreeze]

A little more coverage out around the area than I expected today. The issue with any system if it forms and goes to the east is it makes the heat and dry air worse. Always happens. Keep it to the south and west and it would enhance seabreeze action.

[Cpv17]

Tomorrow looks interesting. Could see some pretty big storms across the area.

[jasons2k]

Tomorrow looks interesting. Could see some pretty big storms across the area.

Yes I was noticing that. Just highlighted on ABC 13 as well.

[DoctorMu]

We just saw a teeny tiny sun shower. We'll take what we can get.

[Cpv17]

We just saw a teeny tiny sun shower. We'll take what we can get.

Better chance tomorrow.

[don]

Got more downpours today.Many areas have received 1-3 inches over the past week.Could see a MCS tomorrow.

[Ptarmigan]

Tomorrow looks interesting. Could see some pretty big storms across the area.

More organized severe thunderstorms are not typical in the summer, outside of summer thunderstorms that pop up.

[DoctorMu]

We just saw a teeny tiny sun shower. We'll take what we can get.

Better chance tomorrow.

I hope so. An MCS would be lovely. Even some wind, small hail would be worth it.

[DoctorMu]

By June 20 - the Death Ridge begins to wane a bit.

So, sure... why not, GFS fantasy run?!

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu its been showing some wacky system the past 3-4 days, gotta love the good old GFS, looks like it found the whisky cabinet again !

[Cromagnum]

Where are yall seeing this MCS stuff for today? NOAA just has a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the area.

[don]

Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0754 AM CDT Thu Jun 08 2023

Valid 081300Z - 091200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL TEXAS SOUTHEASTWARD TO THE MID/UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
The most concentrated potential for severe thunderstorms today
appears to be from portions of central Texas southeastward to the
mid/upper Texas Coast.

...Synopsis...
A blocky large-scale pattern will persist in mid/upper levels,
characterized broadly by ridging over the central CONUS, a large
cyclone covering much of the East, and a much weaker but still broad
cyclone over parts of the western Great Basin, CA and interior
Northwest. As these features will move little through the period,
shortwave details -- some rather subtle -- will be the main
influences aloft. A longstanding height weakness -- extending from
the Great Basin cyclone across the northern/central Rockies, through
the mean ridge to troughing over the Gulf -- will persist, but
weaken somewhat. However, an embedded shortwave trough, with a
convectively enhanced vorticity field, was apparent in moisture-
channel imagery over west-central TX. This perturbation is forecast
to pivot southeastward to the mid/upper TX Coast by 00Z, before
moving offshore over the northwestern Gulf.

Elsewhere, a series of low-amplitude shortwave perturbations and
related vorticity lobes will pivot across the Ohio Valley and
central/southern Appalachians, around the southwestern quadrant of
the cyclone centered over new England. Similarly, but in a much
weaker height gradient, small perturbations will inhabit the
cyclonic-flow field across the Great Basin, ID and parts of
OR/WA/western MT.

At the surface, 11Z analysis showed a wavy cold front, accompanied
by several weak lows, from southeastern VA across eastern NC to
central SC, central AL, and northern MS, becoming quasistationary
across the Ozarks and up the Missouri Valley around MCI-FSD, to near
ABR and DVL. This boundary should move slowly southward from AR
eastward, while remaining quasistationary north of the Ozarks.

...Portions of central/south TX...
Scattered thunderstorms should form this afternoon over the
east-central hill Country region or near I-35 and move southeastward
over mainly the middle coastal plain, offering large hail and
occasional strong-severe gusts. Hail potential will be skewed
somewhat westward in the process, where somewhat discrete mix of
multicells and at least transient supercells is possible. As
activity aggregates and shifts southeastward toward the coast, wind
will become the main concern, with hail still possible. Brief/
isolated significant (2+ inch) hail may occur over western parts of
the outlook area, but that threat appears too marginal and uncertain
for an unconditional sig-hail area at this time.

Following the exit of a morning MCS from the lower Rio Grande Valley
region to the Gulf, considerable trailing clouds and occasional
precip will delay and reduce diurnal destabilization in the trailing
outflow pool. However, in the relatively unaffected air mass from
central TX to the mid/upper TX Coast, high theta-e is forecast to
remain, with surface dewpoints commonly near 70 F below the Balcones
Escarpment. An outflow boundary from earlier/dissipated
thunderstorms -- now near the I-35 corridor between SAT-TPL but also
weakening -- should decelerate and could focus later development or
intensification. Other convection may form in diurnally
heated/modified air behind the boundary, above the escarpment, and
closer to the pocket of large-scale ascent immediately preceding the
vorticity lobe. Resulting convection should move southeastward and
expand in scale through the afternoon, taking advantage of a
strongly heated/mixed inflow layer supporting MLCAPE near 2500 J/kg.
Though low-level winds/shear will be weak, favorable deep shear is
expected, with effective-shear magnitudes of 35-45 kt probable.

[Cpv17]

Where are yall seeing this MCS stuff for today? NOAA just has a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the area.

News channels have been mentioning it since Tuesday and the SPC as well. It’s also been popping up on the mesoscale models.

[jasons2k]

Where are yall seeing this MCS stuff for today? NOAA just has a chance of scattered thunderstorms in the area.

News channels have been mentioning it since Tuesday and the SPC as well. It’s also been popping up on the mesoscale models.

NWS raised my rain chances from 20% to 50% in the overnight package. That’s encouraging.

[tireman4]

We better take what we can get. After today, it is lights out for significant rain chances



000
FXUS64 KHGX 081125
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A challenge in the forecast today as we watch thunderstorms far to
our west. Even if these storms do not reach us, their outflow
could provide the trigger for storms later today, in an
environment that appears to be a little more conducive for
strong/severe storms than typical for this time of year. We are
currently have a marginal risk of severe weather today (Level 1
of 5), with potential that some of that area could rise to a
slight risk (Level 2 of 5). If there are any severe storms,
damaging straight-line winds would be the primary hazard.

Looking into next week, high confidence in a stretch of
unseasonably hot stretch next week remains, while just how hot it
looks to get remain among the details to be refined. We`ll be
looking strongly at the potential for our first 95 degree days of
the year (looks likely across the area!). Things like 100 degree
days and heat advisories for heat index values reaching 108
degrees are still on the table - particularly later in the week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

A rather complex atmospheric setup has been bestowed upon southeast
Texas today. Mid/upper subtropical ridge will build further north
over Texas. However, there will only be a modest increase in
mid/upper level pressure heights. In addition, NW flow aloft will be
increasing as the aforementioned increased ridging tightens the
mid/upper level pressure gradient resulting in about 20-30 knots of
0-6KM bulk shear. Instability will also be plentiful in part thanks
to the heat and humidity that will greet you when you step outside
today. Widespread afternoon highs in the low-90s with dew points
around 70F are expected. This will translate to heat index values in
the upper-90s for many locations. Going back to the instability,
HREF MUCAPE ensemble means are showing widespread values of 2000-
2500 J/kg with forecast soundings showing potential for CAPE
exceeding 3000 J/kg. We also will have to contend with the prospect
of low-level mesoscale boundaries thanks to the sea breeze as well
as potential outflow boundaries from overnight MCS`s in central and
southern Texas. All these aforementioned factors are leading to an
increasing chance of thunderstorms, especially this afternoon. PoPs
for most of the CWA have been increased to the 40-50 percent range.
Given the high instability and sufficient shear, a few strong to
severe thunderstorms will be possible. The Storm Prediction Center
currently has most of our region in a Level 1 out of 5 risk for
severe thunderstorms. It is not out of the question that they could
upgrade the risk to a 2 out of 5 for portions of the CWA. The
primary concern will be damaging winds gusts. Worth mentioning that
this complex setup results in some heightened uncertainty. This can
be seen via the wide ranging solutions of the current CAMs. Most of
the CAMs are indicating convective development over our CWA. It`s
the exact location of these thunderstorms that one will see the most
disagreement in the convection model guidance.

Ridging will build even more on Friday resulting in lower PoPs and
higher temps. Still, some weak shortwave action embedded in the
synoptic flow could spark off a few isolated thunderstorms. But the
bigger story will be the temperatures. Friday`s highs are expected
to average in the mid-90s. Couldn`t rule out a few locations
reaching the upper-90s. Upper-80s to low-90s are expected near the
beaches. Once the humidity is factored into the equation, many of
you will have heat index values reaching the low-100s. Tis the
season to drink plenty of water! If you do not need to be outside,
stay indoors during the hottest hours of the day. Remember to LOOK
before you LOCK. Also, if you think it is hot outside then so do
your pets!

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

I have precisely one (1) day with PoPs that rise into at least the
slight chance category, and that is right on the front end on
Saturday. Ridging will be coming to command the region, but not
before we squeeze one more day with isolated to scattered showers
and storms out. With the beefy, subtropical ridge building in from
the southwest, it`s surely no surprise that the best rain chances
will be to the northeast, generally beyond Lake Livingston and
towards the Pineywoods, were PoPs peak out at 30-40 percent.
Things dip down to around 20 percent near the I-45 corridor, and
dwindle to 5 percent or less pretty quickly once you head
southwest of the Colorado River. The last lingering storms should
wrap up in the early evening, mainly north of Houston.

Okay, with that first day out of the way, let`s focus on the real
star of the long term forecast, the heat. Our big ensemble systems
remain highly confident in unseasonably hot temps, using 850 mb
temperatures as a proxy signal. Both the NAEFS and EPS ensemble
mean 850 temps begin to exceed the 90th percentile as early as
Saturday afternoon, and just crank up into the new week. 97th
percentile temps show up on Sunday, and 99th percentile temps
arrive Monday. By mid-week, 850 temps exceeding the 99th
percentile are widespread, and the hot spots begin to max out the
climo. The Euro ensemble mean goes so far as to suggest record
850 temps area-wide later next week, with the only saving grace
being that this occurs overnight Wednesday into Thursday.

Now, this is all very interesting, but other than perhaps
reinforcing the high confidence in some hot days ahead, it doesn`t
reveal a whole lot of new information we weren`t looking at the
past couple of nights. Where the uncertainty comes in, as it so
often does, is how this hot 850 mb temperature translates to
surface temperatures, where we`re living. And, unfortunately, I
don`t necessarily have a lot to report there. The EPS Extreme
Forecast Index is really suggesting higher confidence in extreme
heat well to our west, but remains coy in our area. The EFI for
max temps through next Wednesday flit above 0.5 in isolated spots,
but there`s not really a strong signal here. Ensemble cluster
analysis of max temps suggests that there is not a lot of
variation from the multi-model mean in the most prominent
scenarios. If anything, there may be a little bust potential for
things to come in a bit cooler than progged, but the difference
here is still small and probably too much of a stretch to do
anything but plant some anxiety about my forecast.

All in all, this idea of having unseasonably hot temperatures but
with a signal for extreme heat relatively lacking, I`m comfortable
mostly running with a blend of the deterministic NBM and the NBM
median for temps, to give me a slight hedge towards heat.
Widespread inland highs in the middle to upper 90s are here as
early as Sunday, and especially Tuesday through Thursday. As we
push into the back half of the week, upper 90s become the norm
inland, while highs reaching 100 degrees begin to emerge. Of
course, onshore flow helps keep things slightly cooler at the
coast, but even there, look for highs around and above 90 degrees.

Taking a look at the NBM distribution, 90 degree highs are
basically certain except right on the Gulf the whole period. This
is not really a surprise, as this time of year, a 90 degree high
is right around average, give or take a degree or two. Stepping it
up to triple digits, and we see some more nuance. The probability
of reaching 100 degrees starts to sneak in from the west as early
as even Saturday - those that have the least chance for rain could
see their odds of hitting the century mark up as high as 8-12
percent. The first isolated spots of 50 percent probability show
up Monday, mainly around the Brazos Valley in our climatological
hot spot west of the Houston metro.

Things get more interesting later in the week, as the
probabilities for hitting 100 continue to increase. The absolute
numbers seem to top out around 75 percent in the second half of
the week, but the area of 50 percent or higher probability grows
to cover nearly all of the area from I-10 northward. With a large
swath of our forecast area seeing a 50-75 percent chance of
reaching 100 degrees at their specific point, I`ve got to think we
are basically certain to see someone, somewhere in the area make
the mark later next week. To get otherwise would require a whole
lot of coin flips going in one particular way.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 517 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

The primary aviation weather concern today will be the chance of
scattered thunderstorms later this afternoon and into the early
evening hours. A few thunderstorms could be strong to severe.
Strong winds are the primary concern with these thunderstorms. We
are hinting at the possibility of strong thunderstorm winds with
the PROB30 VRB20G30KT TSRA that has been added to most of the
TAFs. Some uncertainty regarding the timing of the best chance of
TS. Cannot rule out patchy areas of fog overnight.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Thu Jun 8 2023

Generally light, westerly to southwesterly winds are expected today,
shifting to southerly and strengthening to become more moderate to
late Friday into the weekend. To go along with that, seas will be
pretty flat to begin with and gradually make their way up to a 2
to 4 foot range. Moderate to gusty south winds should prevail in
the first half of next week, and look to increase enough that we
will have to evaluate the need for caution flags and perhaps even
a brief small craft advisory at times next week.

Rain chances dwindle this weekend, with scattered shower and
storm coverage today decreasing each day into the weekend. From
then on, dry weather prevails deep into next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 92 69 95 73 / 50 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 92 72 95 72 / 50 30 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 77 90 79 / 40 30 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Luchs

[Cromagnum]

I hope I cash in today then. We missed completely the last two days.