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The cell that went through Houston, and is now west of the city has been showing some strange movement. It was going SW consistent with that pattern as to hit Fort Bend ... then the whole thing suddenly veered to go west/northwest, such as to cover the western end of Harris while completely dodging Fort Bend. Meanwhile, the other cells east of Houston and towards Louisiana are all moving more consistent with the flow

Not to mention, the HRRR and other mesoscale cams have been UTTERLY useless.

Are we living in a simulation?

user:null wrote: ↑Fri Jun 23, 2023 9:55 pm The cell that went through Houston, and is now west of the city has been showing some strange movement. It was going SW consistent with that pattern as to hit Fort Bend ... then the whole thing suddenly veered to go west/northwest, such as to cover the western end of Harris while completely dodging Fort Bend. Meanwhile, the other cells east of Houston and towards Louisiana are all moving more consistent with the flow

Not to mention, the HRRR and other mesoscale cams have been UTTERLY useless.

Are we living in a simulation?

Par for the course for me. I have seen very weird movement these last 10 years and have missed out on MANY storms.

No steering and storms popping and meandering around. Just following the easiest source of energy until they burn out. At the very least.. The last few days remind me of when I was a kid and storms seemed to be an occurrence often in summer. It didn’t always hit us, but the clouds relieved the heat and hearing thunder in the distance was good for the soul. Hope this is a step toward those good times.

Bore snore weather all week with highs in the 100’s. Less wind than this last week will make it feel worse. It’s going to be HOT! Come on down July to hopefully put an end to this miserable June HP

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:07 am Bore snore weather all week with highs in the 100’s. Less wind than this last week will make it feel worse. It’s going to be HOT! Come on down July to hopefully put an end to this miserable June HP

I’m not sold yet on a pattern change in July. I think it may cool off a bit to maybe the mid 90’s but I’m not really seeing much of a signal for rain. What I would like to see is a big fat ridge parked over the SE.

Dew point is currently 80° here

Going to see some more crazy heat index temps today.

Annnnd let the oven commence…

The matador tx tornado was given a final rating of a high end ef-3 with 165 mph winds, so unbelievably devastating and incredibly rare to see in summer

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 10:00 am

davidiowx wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:07 am Bore snore weather all week with highs in the 100’s. Less wind than this last week will make it feel worse. It’s going to be HOT! Come on down July to hopefully put an end to this miserable June HP

I’m not sold yet on a pattern change in July. I think it may cool off a bit to maybe the mid 90’s but I’m not really seeing much of a signal for rain. What I would like to see is a big fat ridge parked over the SE.

I think that's reasonable about mid 90s (to upper 90s in CLL)...although the rain chances will be > 0% come July...

GFS now back to normal...

Man the 18z GFS rub would be ideal for potential widespread heavy rain for se texas, has a weak tropical low moving into the middle texas coast spreading rain bands inland, that would be perfect for drought busting rains! Too bad its 12 days out

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:15 pm Man the 18z GFS rub would be ideal for potential widespread heavy rain for se texas, has a weak tropical low moving into the middle texas coast spreading rain bands inland, that would be perfect for drought busting rains! Too bad its 12 days out

Not for me lol the 12z was better.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:50 pmNot for me lol the 12z was better.

I also prefer the 12z GFS, since it spreads the wealth better across Southern Texas (where the heat and dryness has truly been brutal), as well as allows more wiggle room for success (as opposed to the low going into Louisiana to bring drying backside winds).

That said, the 18z does provides the much better drenching for central Houston.

I actually don't want a system forming if it misses east towards Louisiana, as that could dry stuff out. I think the general weakness shown on the Euro and CMC is sufficient to channel relief (had those runs continued. Although, if the upcoming pattern is as moistening as predicted (300-700mb RH), with weaker 500mb heights, there might still be enough moisture to generate scattered precip even if a system misses eastward.

user:null wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:50 pmNot for me lol the 12z was better.

I also prefer the 12z GFS, since it spreads the wealth better across Southern Texas (where the heat and dryness has truly been brutal), as well as allows more wiggle room for success (as opposed to the low going into Louisiana to bring drying backside winds).

That said, the 18z does provides the much better drenching for central Houston.

I actually don't want a system forming if it misses east towards Louisiana, as that could dry stuff out. I think the general weakness shown on the Euro and CMC is sufficient to channel relief (had those runs continued. Although, if the upcoming pattern is as moistening as predicted (300-700mb RH), with weaker 500mb heights, there might still be enough moisture to generate scattered precip even if a system misses eastward.

I’m not sure about you but I’m sick of the SE constantly getting rain. It seems like they get good rains there no matter what. It’s annoying. They can be under a high and still get rain it seems.

Cpv17 couldnt agree more! Its time the SE takes one for the team and have the heat ridge build over them and they give us all the rain, they dont need that, despite heading to colorado now, i am over having to constantly turn on the sprinklers, and even that wasnt enough to save some of the plants in my parents garden

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:04 pm

user:null wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:49 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 6:50 pmNot for me lol the 12z was better.

I also prefer the 12z GFS, since it spreads the wealth better across Southern Texas (where the heat and dryness has truly been brutal), as well as allows more wiggle room for success (as opposed to the low going into Louisiana to bring drying backside winds).

That said, the 18z does provides the much better drenching for central Houston.

I actually don't want a system forming if it misses east towards Louisiana, as that could dry stuff out. I think the general weakness shown on the Euro and CMC is sufficient to channel relief (had those runs continued. Although, if the upcoming pattern is as moistening as predicted (300-700mb RH), with weaker 500mb heights, there might still be enough moisture to generate scattered precip even if a system misses eastward.

I’m not sure about you but I’m sick of the SE constantly getting rain. It seems like they get good rains there no matter what. It’s annoying. They can be under a high and still get rain it seems.

The Southeast climatology speaking has always been wetter than most of Texas.The Southeast is further away from the influences of the desert southwest and also have moisture coming in from not only the Gulf but also the Atlantic.Being further away from the dry southwest flow aloft coming from the desert also allows the cap to break easier there. (Though to be fair even Texas has received rain the last few days underneath the heat ridge.)

Texas has such a tight gradient of rainfall with far west Texas only seeing an average of 8 inches of rain a year.While portions of SE Texas can receive up to 60+ inches a year.(Even locally here in SE Texas there is a tight gradient of rainfall with up to a 20 inch difference in annual rainfall locally).SE Texas is really the only part of the state that can compete with the rainfall the southeast receives annually(especially areas along and east of I-45). The back to back La Nina's of the last several years and the terrible drought from 2010-2013 has made the last decade + drier than normal though.

don wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:38 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:04 pm

user:null wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 7:49 pm

I also prefer the 12z GFS, since it spreads the wealth better across Southern Texas (where the heat and dryness has truly been brutal), as well as allows more wiggle room for success (as opposed to the low going into Louisiana to bring drying backside winds).

That said, the 18z does provides the much better drenching for central Houston.

I actually don't want a system forming if it misses east towards Louisiana, as that could dry stuff out. I think the general weakness shown on the Euro and CMC is sufficient to channel relief (had those runs continued. Although, if the upcoming pattern is as moistening as predicted (300-700mb RH), with weaker 500mb heights, there might still be enough moisture to generate scattered precip even if a system misses eastward.

I’m not sure about you but I’m sick of the SE constantly getting rain. It seems like they get good rains there no matter what. It’s annoying. They can be under a high and still get rain it seems.

The Southeast climatology speaking has always been wetter than most of Texas.The Southeast is further away from the influences of the desert southwest and also have moisture coming in from not only the Gulf but also the Atlantic.Being further away from the dry southwest flow aloft coming from the desert also allows the cap to break easier there. (Though to be fair even Texas has received rain the last few days underneath the heat ridge.)

Texas has such a tight gradient of rainfall with far west Texas only seeing an average of 8 inches of rain a year.While portions of SE Texas can receive up to 60+ inches a year.(Even locally here in SE Texas there is a tight gradient of rainfall with up to a 20 inch difference in annual rainfall locally).SE Texas is really the only part of the state that can compete with the rainfall the southeast receives annually(especially areas along and east of I-45). The back to back La Nina's of the last several years and the terrible drought from 2010-2013 has made the last decade + drier than normal though.

Yeah. Out here in the SW part of the viewing area, I often don’t get the rains that you guys do in Houston and points east.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:04 pmI’m not sure about you but I’m sick of the SE constantly getting rain. It seems like they get good rains there no matter what. It’s annoying. They can be under a high and still get rain it seems.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:11 pm Cpv17 couldnt agree more! Its time the SE takes one for the team and have the heat ridge build over them and they give us all the rain, they dont need that, despite heading to colorado now, i am over having to constantly turn on the sprinklers, and even that wasnt enough to save some of the plants in my parents garden

I'm "envious" of even Beaumont/Lake Charles regarding summer rains, let alone other parts of the SE. I've discussed this a lot in prior posts, though I think the user-interface of this board is not very friendly regarding heavy discussion focus (for lack of better term).

There's definitely a "Rossby Wave" pattern at play that favors persistent summer patterns of ridging tendencies in Texas/nearby states, and troughing tendencies for the Great Lakes extending across the Eastern US. However, I'm just not sure if it's simply a "wave train" from a specific distant source (i.e. from Asia or the Pacific), or if the Texas ridging is an induced side-effect of the Mexican/SW US elevated desert topography: I'm thinking a combination of both because the frequency of ridging in/near Texas during summer cannot be just coincidence ... but you also see strong ridges out in the middle of the Pacific and Atlantic, where there's nothing but water.

Perhaps the RH Mechanism could offer some clues here. It is an alternative thesis regarding the formation of deserts versus wetter climates accounting for deficiencies in the common Hadley Cell explanation. It was designed specifically with the Indian Monsoon area versus the deserts in the Middle East, but the concept could probably be applicable to other areas of Earth (perhaps also the ridging that affects Texas during summer):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Rodwell%E ... _mechanism

As for rainfall through the ridging in the SE vs TX, it's really hard to say, because the constant troughing in the Great Lakes region makes ridging hard persist in the SE such to make accurate comparison with TX. But, at this point, I'm coming to the conclusion that 300-700mb moisture is more important than height anomalies regarding whether or not rain mainifests — that and "capping inversions/convective inhibition". There's actually plenty of times in Houston where convective storms still push through even with 500mb ridging overhead: the catch being that the center of ridging needs to be more over the ArkLaTex/MS River Valley, such that flow aloft comes from the south (meaning, moister Gulf atmospheric air), opposed to the location in West Texas/New Mexico/Northern Mexico (which would circulated elevated desert air over the region, probably creating strong enough "cap" to preclude convection). I imagine that the lack of hot and dry elevated land in the SE precludes "capping" from forming in that area ... but again, I can't say for certain via accurate comparison unless we ever see a pattern where persistent ridging sits over that area.

That said, the averages show that Houston does better than the rest of the state (w/ the exception of Beaumont and other areas of deeper SE Texas) regarding summer rainfall: especially areas of the metro along and east of I-69. For example, Houston@Hobby has ~54 inches of rain, and only averages ~2 less inches of rain than Lake Charles during the Jun-Sept rain season, so quite decent. Houston@NWSO near Clear Lake is practically Louisiana with ~60 inches of rainfall, and wet summers averages to boot. Meanwhile, Houston@IAH is drier, less than 4 inches in July, but the totals for that month are actually due to increase getting into the 2030 new normals.

As a result, as annoyed as can happen here, I'd probably be more annoyed if I live many places elsewhere in the state. For instance, the South Texas coast like Brownsville and Corpus has no business being as arid as it is given the high humidity.

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:11 pm Cpv17 couldnt agree more! Its time the SE takes one for the team and have the heat ridge build over them and they give us all the rain, they dont need that, despite heading to colorado now, i am over having to constantly turn on the sprinklers, and even that wasnt enough to save some of the plants in my parents garden

don wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 8:38 pmThe Southeast climatology speaking has always been wetter than most of Texas...

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Sat Jun 24, 2023 9:08 pmYeah. Out here in the SW part of the viewing area, I often don’t get the rains that you guys do in Houston and points east.

That said, how much of the problem is really the lack of rain during summer, as opposed to persistent heat and dryness in general? For instance, the Indian subcontinent (India, Bangladesh, etc) and nearby areas (Myanmar, Thailand, etc) are the champions of summer rainfall due to the monsoon ... but the pre-monsoon period can get brutal heat with not much rain in many of those areas, not much different than the TX heatwave. For example, check out Yangon in Myanmar, those average highs in March and April!
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yangon#Geography

I’d bet the desert keeps creeping East as time goes on. Just in a short window, college stations has been under their yearly avg rain and in some cases around half of their yearly avg. This year however, it’s above avg YTD but likely to be under avg in the next week.

https://www.weather.gov/hgx/climate_graphs

https://www.weather.gov/media/hgx/clima ... ummary.pdf

Well the bad thing is that the operational runs look ugly on the globals if you want rain but the good news is that the ensembles look much better.