July 2023

[Rip76]

Pro Tip. Anything from weather.com will be highly left wing political and frankly can no longer be trusted. It takes careful analysis of any source these days and many can be led astray if you are not careful.

I gotcha. I never knew TWC was like that.. interesting.

TWC is full blown agenda.
It’s almost unwatchable. With the whole midday “pattrn” show.

I wish I could have another true “Weather Channel.”

[Cpv17]

Pro Tip. Anything from weather.com will be highly left wing political and frankly can no longer be trusted. It takes careful analysis of any source these days and many can be led astray if you are not careful.

I gotcha. I never knew TWC was like that.. interesting.

TWC is full blown agenda.
It’s almost unwatchable. With the whole midday “pattrn” show.

I wish I could have another true “Weather Channel.”

I used to love it when I was a kid growing up. TWC is one of the reasons why I started becoming a weather enthusiast. Used to be one of my favorite channels. But that was 20 years ago lol my favorite part was the “Weekly Planner”.

[Cpv17]

Pro Tip. Anything from weather.com will be highly left wing political and frankly can no longer be trusted. It takes careful analysis of any source these days and many can be led astray if you are not careful.

Amen.. Almost everything these days has a political agenda. All of this climate change bs is just that. I'm sad some of our weather people have jumped into that train.

When it comes to the climate change and global warming arguments, I tend to stay away from those. I’m not nearly educated enough to get into that conversation and I really don’t know who to believe when it comes to that. Is it true or not true? I have no clue.. so I just keep my mouth shut about it.

[user:null]

With all due respect to many on here, there's nothing "political" about real-world, demonstable processes regarding weather and climate change: claiming them as such is just another form of denialism/though-termination just to silence/stifle/neuter discussion.

In fact, the denialism extends even to discussions outside of climate. For example, Space City Weather spoke earlier this summer regarding the problems of recent Twitter changes regarding NWS updates, and other such parameters valuable for forecasts. It was a purely factual, "No Hype" description of the challenges that were faced, and still they were met with criticisms in their comments about "being political."

[DoctorMu]

Pro Tip. Anything from weather.com will be highly left wing political and frankly can no longer be trusted. It takes careful analysis of any source these days and many can be led astray if you are not careful.

Amen.. Almost everything these days has a political agenda. All of this climate change bs is just that. I'm sad some of our weather people have jumped into that train.

When it comes to the climate change and global warming arguments, I tend to stay away from those. I’m not nearly educated enough to get into that conversation and I really don’t know who to believe when it comes to that. Is it true or not true? I have no clue.. so I just keep my mouth shut about it.

Regardless of what politics TWC preaches, climate change is very real and as close to a slam dunk as there is in science. It's nearly Laws of Thermodynamics certain. We don't have any pols with the cujones to develop a "Man on the Moon" project for fusion power. We have superconductor magnets for cells. It's possible within a decade. Clean Energy is a massive jobs and growth sector.


TWC still sux though today. How many Ice Trucker episodes until the plot is obvious.? lol TWC was at one time one of the first cable channels to delved into science...about weather.

[DoctorMu]

It's juicy down near Florida. That dry air is a beast...but there's less in the mid and upper levels.


https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[user:null]

Yesterday the models had the blob of energy/ moisture by Florida moving our way, but now it looks like its going to get pulled north instead into florida, i dont see any real rain chances over the next 7-10 days here unfortunately

What particular model showed that yesterday, and which run? The only things I've seen are the errant strong hurricanes, which usually are noise when far out. Whereas the weaker "inverted troughs" are still progged to pass west into Texas/Mexico (just with variation regarding whether it is farther north into Texas versus more focused on Mexico).

For instance, the ICON as of the 00z just now still has the weakness (or a weakness) progged for August 1st/2nd.

[Stratton20]

user:null it was the GFS runs from 12z on the 26th and beyond, the full day of runs, watch the northern gulf and youll see it was showing a little but of a weak vorticity signature/ wave moving in the general direction of texas, today it pretty much just goes into florida

[Cpv17]

user:null it was the GFS runs from 12z on the 26th and beyond, the full day of runs, watch the northern gulf and youll see it was showing a little but of a weak vorticity signature/ wave moving in the general direction of texas, today it pretty much just goes into florida

Yeah, I saw last night channel 13 lowered their rain chances for next week.

[jasons2k]

I don’t care for TWC that much either. Miss the days of Mark Mancuso, Bill Keneely, John Hope, Dave Schwartz, Cheryl Lemke, Rich Johnson, etc. Good to see Mark still on AccuWx.

Here’s the thing folks. TWC didn’t write the study on AMOC. The news story was published on multiple news outlets.

The “story” was about an article published in Nature. If you want to see the actual study, look here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

Don’t shoot the messenger.

As for the weather, things are turning to a crisp around here and quick. All the Crepe Myrtles are drooping and have gone dormant. The sycamore trees are exfoliating. Here we go again with another flash drought from hell.

[user:null]

user:null it was the GFS runs from 12z on the 26th and beyond, the full day of runs, watch the northern gulf and youll see it was showing a little but of a weak vorticity signature/ wave moving in the general direction of texas, today it pretty much just goes into florida

In that case, I don't really see the worst of consequences. The 12z and 18z GFS from the 25th didn't exactly show decent rainmaking across Texas, as the qpf was rather low (as in totals through next week Aug 5th). But the 00z and 06z was definitely better, tho.

CMC 00z 25th was no good, but 12z was better. Euro was better than CMC for both on the 25th.

EDIT: nevermind, I see what you mean now, especially visible for this Saturday, the feature moves northeast from Florida to Georgia and Carolinas instead of retrograding west across the Gulf. The main effect leads to a bit stronger ridging extending down the Gulf Coast and Mexico, rather than a more east-west axis north of us entirely. So yea, qpf of next week is indeed quite a bit less ... but models still have a weakness/feature towards South Texas/Mexico: that can help "erode" the periphery of the ridge over our area if robust enough, especially if models aren't picking up on mesoscale nuances this far out.

[user:null]

As for the weather, things are turning to a crisp around here and quick. All the Crepe Myrtles are drooping and have gone dormant. The sycamore trees are exfoliating. Here we go again with another flash drought from hell.

So far this week, only Brazoria Co. and other spots south of I-10 have been staving it off with isolated storms.

[Rip76]

Man I miss Dave Schwartz.
He was a daily highlight reel.

[Cromagnum]

It takes a lot of hubris to think we can accurately predict the weather. It takes even more to think we somehow have any control of it. If there is any climate change happening, that giant ball of fire in the sky and the molten core of the earth are going to have all the say in what happens, not us.

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 271131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Essentially a rinse and repeat forecast from yesterday for today.
The Saharan Dust plume has made it to Southeast TX, and with an
already dry airmass in place, expecting a similar setup to
yesterday with precipitation chances. PWAT values will be on the
lower side given the dry airmass, and Saharan Dust coupled with
that will inhibit cloud development for the most part. Pockets of
areas with slightly higher PWAT values (mostly south of I-10 and
west of I-45) will have the highest chances of precipitation this
afternoon primarily along and ahead of the sea/bay breeze. PoPs
wane down this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

An inverted trough moving through South TX/Northern Mexico will help
keep temperatures slightly cooler as it nudges the dominant ridge
westward and 500mb heights lower in response. PWATs appear to be
slightly higher Friday (1.5-1.7"), so rain chances will once again
be possible during the afternoon hours with the sea/bay breeze.

Temperatures during the day will be in the upper 80s to near 100F
while nighttime temperatures will dip into the 70s to around 80. A
drier airmass and lower daytime temperatures will help keep Heat
Index values below advisory criteria.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

As the mid/upper ridge slides into and then settles over the Central
Plains, SE TX looks to remain on the southern periphery of this sys-
tem. However, as we head into next week, this feature is now progged
to settle more over the Southern Plains and strengthen. At the lower
levels, a more pronounced southeasterly flow is expected to increase
our moisture profile through the period as PWs hover around 2" for a
good part of next week. While this could translate to continuing iso-
lated POPs along/near the coast over the weekend...to more scattered
activity along/near the coast for the first half of next week...this
pattern will also increase the possibility of elevated heat indicies
for inland areas from Sun on into Weds. Stay tuned. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

GLS at MVFR CIGs, all other sites at VFR. GLS forecasted to
improve to VFR around 15Z. VFR expected to prevail today with
winds light out of the south to southeast. Iso SH/TS possible
again this afternoon, mainly along and around the sea/bay breeze.
Precipitation chances expected to wane around 23Z with loss of
heating.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 355 AM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

No changes with the overall forecast of light/moderate onshore winds
and wave heights around 2-3ft for the next several days (and longer).
While winds/seas are not expected to exceed caution criteria through
the rest of the week and the weekend, elevated conditions are possi-
ble in and near scattered showers/storms that could develop each day
during the morning and afternoon hours. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 75 99 75 / 0 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 98 77 97 77 / 20 0 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 81 90 82 / 30 20 20 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...41

[MontgomeryCoWx]

It takes a lot of hubris to think we can accurately predict the weather. It takes even more to think we somehow have any control of it. If there is any climate change happening, that giant ball of fire in the sky and the molten core of the earth are going to have all the say in what happens, not us.

First response that is close to dead on. Solar has more effect in our weather than humans do. Climate change is real. The argument is whether one believes we should destroy western economies and civilization in the name of it.

Because I can tell you who won’t be ditching reliable baseload energy…: China, India and other developing economies. Peter Zeihan nails all of this in his latest book. And let’s not forget that these “clean” supplemental energy sources are not clean at all from a mining perspective and are a threat to national security simply due to the fact that the raw materials don’t exist from a domestic supply chain perspective. As countries are exiting the Bretton Woods era and nearshoring we are absolutely screwed if we pivot to a majority renewables baseload.

And for anyone that asks who made me opinionated on this…. This is what I do. I have given more presentations on this to major utilities and Energy companies in the last 5 years than I can count.

[biggerbyte]

It takes a lot of hubris to think we can accurately predict the weather. It takes even more to think we somehow have any control of it. If there is any climate change happening, that giant ball of fire in the sky and the molten core of the earth are going to have all the say in what happens, not us.

Agreed. Every time there is a big weather event we hear climate change. The fact of the matter is, climate does change. It cycles continually. Remember the great Galveston hurricane? How about the years 1930 to 1940. Look up dust bowl.

There have been huge weather events that cycle in/out long before any of the things occurred that are now being blamed. If you ask folks who believe this nonsense about those years long passed they have no answer.

So, we will continue to cycle. Some years hot and dry, while others cooler and wet. The idea behind this notion is to attempt to force regulation at the cost of the supplier, and the consumer. While we can't just blatantly pollute the air we need to survive, blaming any sort of permanent change on man, well you know.

[tireman4]

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Thu Jul 27 2023

Scattered mid clouds and light to moderate south to southeast
winds can be expected through this evening. Isolated to scattered
showers and thunderstorms will likely continue, particularly
at/near LBX, SGR, HOU and GLS through mid/late afternoon. A few
showers will be possible a bit further north of these terminals.
Gusty winds up to 20 knots and reduced visibility are possible
with any strong storms. Light and variable winds and mostly clear
skies can be expected tonight. Reduced visibility due to fog is
once again expected near/at LBX towards daybreak. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected through most of the period.


JM

&&

[user:null]

"Climate change is natural" is a baseless argument and really is nothing more than a deflection: natural or anthropogenic, it still poses impeding factors that civilization has to adapt, deal with, mitigate, etc.

[DoctorMu]

I don’t care for TWC that much either. Miss the days of Mark Mancuso, Bill Keneely, John Hope, Dave Schwartz, Cheryl Lemke, Rich Johnson, etc. Good to see Mark still on AccuWx.

Here’s the thing folks. TWC didn’t write the study on AMOC. The news story was published on multiple news outlets.

The “story” was about an article published in Nature. If you want to see the actual study, look here:

https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-023-39810-w

Don’t shoot the messenger.

As for the weather, things are turning to a crisp around here and quick. All the Crepe Myrtles are drooping and have gone dormant. The sycamore trees are exfoliating. Here we go again with another flash drought from hell.

The chinch bugs have gone nuts in the yard due to the hot, dry conditions. I double dosed the front with diazinon and watered like crazy last night. The trees will be getting their biweekly water and vitamins, nitrogen in additional to the sprinkler. today as well.