We have some mixing down and DPs are back in the 60s. DP in 50s in north and central/HIll Country Texas.
The ridge weakens slightly and some s/w's Sat, Sun, Mon possible. 20% change of a shower in CLL. 50% Sunday and Monday allegedly in Houston.
July 2023
⬇⬇⬇ See what I mean? And this 18z shows rather favorable patterns too.user:null wrote: ↑Tue Jul 18, 2023 1:49 pm It's also possible that there is a bias of sorts that prevents depiction/manifestation of rain in Texas during summer. Or maybe some other sort of thing mucking stuff up. Look at the 12ZGFS run: plenty of high 300-700mb moisture periods in Texas that yielded paltry amounts at best.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4273
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Looks like models are showing a weak back door cold front pushing into se texas this weekend and eventually out into the gulf, hoping this can spark some storms across the area, but also will need to keep an eye on if this front makes it out over the open waters of the gulf, as its always possible for a quick spin up and not usually something the global models tend to pick up on well, just my two cents though, but with how unbelievably warm the gulf waters are right now, i absolutely dont trust even a weak front
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4515
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 191124
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
A persistence forecast remains during the short term period with hot
and dry conditions and dangerous heat index values. Strong mid-upper
level ridge centered over the Desert SW/New Mexico will continue to
expand and move eastward across the Southern Plains today, before
becoming elongated later in the afternoon and slightly retreating
westward again on Thursday. At the sfc, high pressure anchored
over the southern CONUS/northern Gulf continues to bring a warmer
and more humid airmass into the region embedded in the southerly
flow. In other words, the heat continues today and Thursday with
highs from the upper 90s to 103°F with heat indices up to 110°F.
Dry air mixing down in the afternoon could keep dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s across our western counties (slightly drier
but warmer conditions). Seabreeze should again develop across the
southern and coastal counties this afternoon/early evening,
resulting in breezy conditions. With strong subsidence and limited
moisture, rain chances remain very low today and Thursday. Heat
headlines remain in effect for today with Heat Advisories in
effect through late this evening.
Warm and muggy nights can be expected with overnight lows from the
upper 70s to low 80s (mainly over the coastal counties/barrier
islands). Low-level moisture advection and light winds should again
develop low clouds and patchy to areas of fog both nights.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
The mid to upper level ridge over the Southwestern CONUS should
continue to drift westward into the weekend. 850mb temperatures are
still progged to be around 21-26C during the afternoon, so daytime
highs should still be in the 90s to lower 100s. However, NAEFS 500mb
heights should decrease across the region during this period. A
shortwave trough over the Southern Plains/Mississippi River Valley
will work in tandem with a broader trough across the
East/Northeastern CONUS to push a weak surface boundary into SE
Texas on Saturday. Any showers/storms firing off along this
boundary, the sea/bay breeze, or any combination thereof, will have
abundant moisture to tap into with PWs of around 1.6-2.0 inches.
Steep low level lapse rates may allow these storms to become
especially gusty at times. Drier lower levels brought by the
aforementioned boundary and afternoon mixing should bring lower heat
indices over the weekend and into early next week.
The aforementioned boundary should lift north of the area on Monday,
with NAEFS 500mb heights progged to increase as the mid/upper level
ridge drifting back towards the east. Rain chances should decrease,
but will remain possible over the next few days as SE Texas remains
on the peripheral of the midlevel ridge.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
SCT to BKN MVFR conditions due to low clouds/stratus should
gradually improve to VFR around 13-15Z Wed. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected today with south to southwesterly winds
around 10 knots. Gusty south winds are expected in the afternoon.
Another round of MVFR conditions are possible late tonight with
the highest probabilities for terminals north/west of IAH.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 2 to 3 foot seas are expected
through early next week. Caution flags could be needed at times
during the overnight hours. Rain chances return to the Gulf waters
this weekend.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 78 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 80 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 92 82 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 191124
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
624 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
A persistence forecast remains during the short term period with hot
and dry conditions and dangerous heat index values. Strong mid-upper
level ridge centered over the Desert SW/New Mexico will continue to
expand and move eastward across the Southern Plains today, before
becoming elongated later in the afternoon and slightly retreating
westward again on Thursday. At the sfc, high pressure anchored
over the southern CONUS/northern Gulf continues to bring a warmer
and more humid airmass into the region embedded in the southerly
flow. In other words, the heat continues today and Thursday with
highs from the upper 90s to 103°F with heat indices up to 110°F.
Dry air mixing down in the afternoon could keep dewpoints in the
upper 60s to low 70s across our western counties (slightly drier
but warmer conditions). Seabreeze should again develop across the
southern and coastal counties this afternoon/early evening,
resulting in breezy conditions. With strong subsidence and limited
moisture, rain chances remain very low today and Thursday. Heat
headlines remain in effect for today with Heat Advisories in
effect through late this evening.
Warm and muggy nights can be expected with overnight lows from the
upper 70s to low 80s (mainly over the coastal counties/barrier
islands). Low-level moisture advection and light winds should again
develop low clouds and patchy to areas of fog both nights.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
The mid to upper level ridge over the Southwestern CONUS should
continue to drift westward into the weekend. 850mb temperatures are
still progged to be around 21-26C during the afternoon, so daytime
highs should still be in the 90s to lower 100s. However, NAEFS 500mb
heights should decrease across the region during this period. A
shortwave trough over the Southern Plains/Mississippi River Valley
will work in tandem with a broader trough across the
East/Northeastern CONUS to push a weak surface boundary into SE
Texas on Saturday. Any showers/storms firing off along this
boundary, the sea/bay breeze, or any combination thereof, will have
abundant moisture to tap into with PWs of around 1.6-2.0 inches.
Steep low level lapse rates may allow these storms to become
especially gusty at times. Drier lower levels brought by the
aforementioned boundary and afternoon mixing should bring lower heat
indices over the weekend and into early next week.
The aforementioned boundary should lift north of the area on Monday,
with NAEFS 500mb heights progged to increase as the mid/upper level
ridge drifting back towards the east. Rain chances should decrease,
but will remain possible over the next few days as SE Texas remains
on the peripheral of the midlevel ridge.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 620 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
SCT to BKN MVFR conditions due to low clouds/stratus should
gradually improve to VFR around 13-15Z Wed. Otherwise, VFR
conditions are expected today with south to southwesterly winds
around 10 knots. Gusty south winds are expected in the afternoon.
Another round of MVFR conditions are possible late tonight with
the highest probabilities for terminals north/west of IAH.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 2 to 3 foot seas are expected
through early next week. Caution flags could be needed at times
during the overnight hours. Rain chances return to the Gulf waters
this weekend.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 78 102 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 80 100 78 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 91 83 92 82 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
Highest electric bill I've ever seen just came in for mid June to mid July cycle. Nearly 2900 Kwh. Yikes. Fall and winter cannot get here soon enough.
Oof. And some dumbass wrecked a mobile home into a power pole down the street and killed power everywhere here. Working from home still doable with a generator, but need to be able to use the AC soon.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4515
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 191959
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
259 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
The relentless grip of a very strong UL high pressure system continues
to keep southeast Texas sizzling. Peak afternoon temps today are expected to
be around 100F with heat index values approaching 110F. For our coastal
county friends who experience the sea breeze, I can`t promise that the
`breeze` will provide much relief. Tonight will be about as warm and humid
as the nights of recent. The urban heat island and coastal areas will
struggle to dip below 80F. Elsewhere is expected to drop into the mid/upper
70s. The aforementioned ridge will nudge slightly westward tomorrow
afternoon. But tomorrow`s pattern will not differ much from today.
Therefore, if you didn`t like today then you won`t like tomorrow since
temps and dew points will be similar.
The heat advisory has been extended through tomorrow. Please continue to
practice heat safety. LOOK before LOCK your car! If possible, avoid the
outdoors during the hottest hours of the day. Heavy dark colored clothing
is not your friend. Water is your friend. If the pavement is too hot for
your hands, then it is too hot for your furry little friend`s paws.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
We interrupt this period of rain-free, heat advisory-ridden,
repetitive hot and humid weather days to inform you that there is a
non-zero chance of precipitation for Southeast Texas this weekend.
The mid to upper level pattern will evolve as the ridge that has
held its grip over the area begins to retreat to the western part of
the state and into the SW US. While 500mb heights lower, a mid-level
shortwave will work its way east from the Southern Plains and push a
weak surface boundary into the CWA. The pattern of onshore flow will
continue and PWAT values will increase to around 2.0" this week.
These factors will work in concert with each other to create the
potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon into early next week. Highest chances of
precipitation will reside east of the Houston Metro and in the Gulf
Waters where dynamics are more favorable. Chances will trend down
near the middle of next week as the boundary retreats north on
Monday and the ridge of high pressure begins to move back towards
the east.
Temperature wise, the combination of cloud cover, precipitation
chances, and drier lower levels in the wake of the surface boundary
should yield lower MaxT for the weekend and early next week (upper
80s to around 100 degrees). Monday may be the first day in what
seems like forever that a Heat Advisory has not been in effect. That
being said, heat indices will still be in the triple digits and on
the cusp of Heat Advisory thresholds, so continue to practice heat
safety by staying hydrated, wearing loose fitting clothing, and
remember to look before you lock!
Nighttime lows will generally be in the 70s to low 80s.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
VFR to prevail this afternoon and evening. Sea breeze to
occasionally result in gusty SE winds, especially from IAH to the
coast. Winds decrease and veer SW overnight. MVFR deck expected
once again tomorrow morning. Generally, tomorrow appears very
similar to today.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
A light to moderate onshore wind, along with seas of 2 to 3 feet,
will continue throughout the remainder of the week and into the
weekend.
Wind speeds should generally remain below caution thresholds. Some
rain and thunderstorm chances return heading into the weekend as a
disturbance moves into the area, with the highest rain chances
currently expected to occur on Sunday.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 92 82 92 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams
FXUS64 KHGX 191959
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
259 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
The relentless grip of a very strong UL high pressure system continues
to keep southeast Texas sizzling. Peak afternoon temps today are expected to
be around 100F with heat index values approaching 110F. For our coastal
county friends who experience the sea breeze, I can`t promise that the
`breeze` will provide much relief. Tonight will be about as warm and humid
as the nights of recent. The urban heat island and coastal areas will
struggle to dip below 80F. Elsewhere is expected to drop into the mid/upper
70s. The aforementioned ridge will nudge slightly westward tomorrow
afternoon. But tomorrow`s pattern will not differ much from today.
Therefore, if you didn`t like today then you won`t like tomorrow since
temps and dew points will be similar.
The heat advisory has been extended through tomorrow. Please continue to
practice heat safety. LOOK before LOCK your car! If possible, avoid the
outdoors during the hottest hours of the day. Heavy dark colored clothing
is not your friend. Water is your friend. If the pavement is too hot for
your hands, then it is too hot for your furry little friend`s paws.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
We interrupt this period of rain-free, heat advisory-ridden,
repetitive hot and humid weather days to inform you that there is a
non-zero chance of precipitation for Southeast Texas this weekend.
The mid to upper level pattern will evolve as the ridge that has
held its grip over the area begins to retreat to the western part of
the state and into the SW US. While 500mb heights lower, a mid-level
shortwave will work its way east from the Southern Plains and push a
weak surface boundary into the CWA. The pattern of onshore flow will
continue and PWAT values will increase to around 2.0" this week.
These factors will work in concert with each other to create the
potential for isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
Saturday afternoon into early next week. Highest chances of
precipitation will reside east of the Houston Metro and in the Gulf
Waters where dynamics are more favorable. Chances will trend down
near the middle of next week as the boundary retreats north on
Monday and the ridge of high pressure begins to move back towards
the east.
Temperature wise, the combination of cloud cover, precipitation
chances, and drier lower levels in the wake of the surface boundary
should yield lower MaxT for the weekend and early next week (upper
80s to around 100 degrees). Monday may be the first day in what
seems like forever that a Heat Advisory has not been in effect. That
being said, heat indices will still be in the triple digits and on
the cusp of Heat Advisory thresholds, so continue to practice heat
safety by staying hydrated, wearing loose fitting clothing, and
remember to look before you lock!
Nighttime lows will generally be in the 70s to low 80s.
Adams
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
VFR to prevail this afternoon and evening. Sea breeze to
occasionally result in gusty SE winds, especially from IAH to the
coast. Winds decrease and veer SW overnight. MVFR deck expected
once again tomorrow morning. Generally, tomorrow appears very
similar to today.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 257 PM CDT Wed Jul 19 2023
A light to moderate onshore wind, along with seas of 2 to 3 feet,
will continue throughout the remainder of the week and into the
weekend.
Wind speeds should generally remain below caution thresholds. Some
rain and thunderstorm chances return heading into the weekend as a
disturbance moves into the area, with the highest rain chances
currently expected to occur on Sunday.
Adams
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 78 102 76 101 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 100 78 100 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 83 92 82 92 / 0 10 0 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Thursday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Adams
I don’t have a whole-home generator, but I have a large portable one and portable AC’s that run the garage for hurricanes and general dumbassery like this.
Nice dry air mix down kept the Heat Index to a "chilly" 106°F, despite another 103°F day.
It sux but not as bad. Hoping to win the rain lottery this weekend, but then I might have a better chance of winning the real lottery.
It sux but not as bad. Hoping to win the rain lottery this weekend, but then I might have a better chance of winning the real lottery.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4515
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 201137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Dangerous hot and dry conditions continue today and Friday as mid
to upper level ridge dominates the pattern. Upper ridging weakens
and expands further east today. However, no significant impacts
can be expected over SE TX as 850 mb temperatures remain in the
mid 20s degC, resulting in sfc temperatures from the upper 90s to
103F. Sfc dewpoints are progged to mix out in the afternoon,
bringing drier and hotter conditions particularly across the
Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney Woods area. These
locations will continue to experience hot ambient temperatures and
heat indices up to 108F. Heat indices up to 110F can be expected
for the rest of SE TX. Heat advisories remain in effect for the
entire region through 10PM this evening.
Friday...ridging aloft continues to weaken and/or retreat
westward. At the sfc, winds will gradually transition to the
southwest as high pressure moves across the Southeastern CONUS.
This pattern will bring a slight uptick in moisture across the
coastal counties and waters with PWs between 1.5-1.9 inches.
Therefore, a few showers and storms will be possible mainly over
the coastal waters. High temperatures will not vary much to today
as 850 mb temps remain in the 20s degC, but it will feel more
humid due to increasing low- level moisture.
Warm and humid nights can be expected with low clouds and patchy
fog developing overnight through early morning. Overnight lows
from the upper 70s to low 80s can be anticipated.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Long term forecast remains stagnant with little deviation from the
previous forecast package. The mid to upper level ridge over the
Southwestern CONUS should continue to drift westward this weekend.
850mb temperatures are still progged to be around 21-26C during the
afternoon, bringing daytime highs in the 90s to lower 100s. NAEFS
500mb heights are still expected to decrease across the region
during this period. Shortwave impulses should work in tandem with a
broader trough across the East/Northeastern CONUS to push a weak
surface boundary into SE Texas on Saturday. Any showers/storms
firing off along this boundary, the sea/bay breeze, or any
combination thereof, will have abundant moisture to tap into with
PWs of around 1.6-2.0 inches. Steep low level lapse rates may allow
these storms to become especially gusty at times. Drier lower levels
brought by the aforementioned boundary and afternoon mixing should
bring lower heat indices starting Sunday, continuing through midweek.
The aforementioned boundary should lift north of the area on Monday,
with NAEFS 500mb heights progged to increase as the mid/upper level
ridge drifting back towards the east. Rain chances should decrease,
but will remain possible over the next few days as SE Texas remains
on the peripheral of the midlevel ridge.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Another morning with scattered to broken MVFR ceilings and patchy
fog. Ceilings are expected to improve after 14-15Z Thursday with
VFR conditions through late this evening. Another round of MVFR
conditions due to low clouds/stratus is expected, mainly after
midnight. Light to moderate south to southwesterly winds should
prevail through most of the period. Higher gusts possible late in
the afternoon/early evening.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 2 to 3 foot seas are expected
through early next week. Caution flags could be needed at times
during the overnight hours. Showers and storms return to the Gulf
waters this weekend, with rain chances highest on Sunday.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 79 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 79 101 80 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 91 82 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
FXUS64 KHGX 201137
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
637 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Dangerous hot and dry conditions continue today and Friday as mid
to upper level ridge dominates the pattern. Upper ridging weakens
and expands further east today. However, no significant impacts
can be expected over SE TX as 850 mb temperatures remain in the
mid 20s degC, resulting in sfc temperatures from the upper 90s to
103F. Sfc dewpoints are progged to mix out in the afternoon,
bringing drier and hotter conditions particularly across the
Brazos Valley and portions of the Piney Woods area. These
locations will continue to experience hot ambient temperatures and
heat indices up to 108F. Heat indices up to 110F can be expected
for the rest of SE TX. Heat advisories remain in effect for the
entire region through 10PM this evening.
Friday...ridging aloft continues to weaken and/or retreat
westward. At the sfc, winds will gradually transition to the
southwest as high pressure moves across the Southeastern CONUS.
This pattern will bring a slight uptick in moisture across the
coastal counties and waters with PWs between 1.5-1.9 inches.
Therefore, a few showers and storms will be possible mainly over
the coastal waters. High temperatures will not vary much to today
as 850 mb temps remain in the 20s degC, but it will feel more
humid due to increasing low- level moisture.
Warm and humid nights can be expected with low clouds and patchy
fog developing overnight through early morning. Overnight lows
from the upper 70s to low 80s can be anticipated.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Long term forecast remains stagnant with little deviation from the
previous forecast package. The mid to upper level ridge over the
Southwestern CONUS should continue to drift westward this weekend.
850mb temperatures are still progged to be around 21-26C during the
afternoon, bringing daytime highs in the 90s to lower 100s. NAEFS
500mb heights are still expected to decrease across the region
during this period. Shortwave impulses should work in tandem with a
broader trough across the East/Northeastern CONUS to push a weak
surface boundary into SE Texas on Saturday. Any showers/storms
firing off along this boundary, the sea/bay breeze, or any
combination thereof, will have abundant moisture to tap into with
PWs of around 1.6-2.0 inches. Steep low level lapse rates may allow
these storms to become especially gusty at times. Drier lower levels
brought by the aforementioned boundary and afternoon mixing should
bring lower heat indices starting Sunday, continuing through midweek.
The aforementioned boundary should lift north of the area on Monday,
with NAEFS 500mb heights progged to increase as the mid/upper level
ridge drifting back towards the east. Rain chances should decrease,
but will remain possible over the next few days as SE Texas remains
on the peripheral of the midlevel ridge.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Another morning with scattered to broken MVFR ceilings and patchy
fog. Ceilings are expected to improve after 14-15Z Thursday with
VFR conditions through late this evening. Another round of MVFR
conditions due to low clouds/stratus is expected, mainly after
midnight. Light to moderate south to southwesterly winds should
prevail through most of the period. Higher gusts possible late in
the afternoon/early evening.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 350 AM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Light to moderate onshore winds with 2 to 3 foot seas are expected
through early next week. Caution flags could be needed at times
during the overnight hours. Showers and storms return to the Gulf
waters this weekend, with rain chances highest on Sunday.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 103 79 101 76 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 100 79 101 80 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 91 82 / 0 0 10 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...03
Channel 13 didn't seem to enthusiastic about rain chances this weekend and seemed to have lowered percentages down somewhat.
Wondering if Lucy is fixing to yank the football away yet again.
Wondering if Lucy is fixing to yank the football away yet again.
I don't trust anything. Running the sprinklers to buy time.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4273
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Hopefully everyone gets a little relief this weekend, already at 97 degrees here, just awful
Fortunately, the ridge axis looks to be entirely to our north by next week (at least, quite a bit). So that allows rain chances to maintain through the end of the month.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4515
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 202023
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
323 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
It is another hot afternoon across southeast Texas. Temperatures
appear to be well on their way to at least 100F across much of the
CWA. Even some obs in interior portions of coastal counties are
rising into the upper-90s as I type this AFD. However, there is one
small silver lining to the weather today. Thanks to good ole fashion
mixing, our 70-something degree dew points have dropped into the 60s
for most inland areas. Some locations in our northern most counties
have already mixed down to low-60s dew points! So at least heat
index values are not as high as they could be. It remains hot enough
to practice heat safety. Also worth mentioning the dew points near
the coast remain in the 70s. Quite sticky at the beaches! Temps
overnight may drop a couple degrees cooler than last night. But it
will still feel summery.
The pattern in recent days has been dominated by an impressive UL
high pressure ridge. Technically, this will remain the case for
quite some time. However, this ridge is in the early stages of a
slow westward retrograde that will open the door to less hot
temperatures and better rain chances. Friday still promises to be
quite hot (near 100F once again for many of you). But with a modest
decrease in mid/upper heights and the introduction of rising PWs
(especially near the coast), we have added slight (15-20 percent)
PoPs across our coastal counties for tomorrow. The sea breeze may
provide just enough lift to kick off isolated showers or even a
thunderstorm. But since ridging remains relatively robust, we
couldn`t justify going higher with our PoPs. In addition, increasing
850-700MB RH values could limit the mixing induced dew point drop
during the afternoon, especially over our southern counties.
Therefore, it is not a surprise that our max apparent temperature
grids near and south of I-10 are generally a little hotter tomorrow
than they are today. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the
entire CWA through tomorrow evening.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
By Saturday morning, a cold front (don`t get too excited...trust me)
will be on our doorsteps as an upper level trough deepens over the
Mississippi River Valley. This front is fairly weak and will do
nothing for us in terms of temperatures, but it will help us out
with rain chances though! With the midlevel high retrograding to the
west, this places our region in the ever so favorable northwesterly
flow aloft. Couple that with moisture convergence from the
approaching frontal boundary leading to PW values surging to 1.8"-
2.2" (90th percentile: ~2.16") over the weekend, and we have a
fairly good chance of cooling showers/storms. Sunday appears to be
the most favorable day with 50-70% PoPs, but don`t overlook Saturday
either. Depending on how far south the weak quasi-stationary frontal
boundary makes it, we could see a boundary collision between it and
the sea breeze on Saturday afternoon like some models are depicting
(check out 1000mb-850mb frontogenesis). This could lead to greater
coverage of convection, but in general the coverage should be
greater east of I-45 on Saturday whereas Sunday will feature more
widespread convection.
With PW values near or exceeding the 90th percentile this weekend,
some of these storms could feature locally heavy rainfall. I`ve
heard that some are curious about our potential for strong to severe
storms over the weekend as well, so let`s talk about it! While we do
have steep sfc-3km lapse rates (8-9°C/km), DCAPE around 1000-1200
J/kg, and MUCAPE generally ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg, our bulk
shear looks to be no greater than 25-30 knots. So, while some storms
will be capable of being strong enough to drop heavy rain and gusty
winds at times, the shear is expected to be too weak for updrafts to
sustain this for an extended period of time. Hopefully that answers
those questions! As far as temperatures go, we`ll still be hot with
highs in the upper 90s/low 100s. However, there`ll be more of a
chance that we get some rain to help cool us off in the
afternoon/evening (at the cost of increased mugginess post-rain).
The daily chances for showers/storms continues into Monday and
Tuesday, but after that things get a little bit tricky. We`re still
anticipating a fairly decent plume of Saharan dust to move in on
Tuesday afternoon. In addition to that, the midlevel high (heatdome)
will be moving back to the east towards TX. Due to both of these
factors, I`ve trimmed down PoPs to ~20% after midweek. The next few
sentences are very nerdy/technical, so sorry in advance. Saharan
dust typically leads to suppressed rain chances due to a surge in
dust particles that will act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN).
This means there would be less water to attach to each CCN leading
to smaller droplets. These smaller droplets would have a much harder
time reaching the surface (especially with model soundings still
showing a dry sfc-1km layer) thus reducing the probability of
rainfall. Isn`t Science fun?!
Temperatures will remain solidly in the upper 90s throughout the
rest of the long term period. If you`re looking for hope in the
"beyond the long term" period...wellllll...you might wanna sit down
for this one. The midlevel high looks to sit over the Southern
Plains throughout next week and into next weekend. The Climate
Prediction Center released their latest outlook with Texas solidly
in the likely above normal probabilities for temperatures beyond
next Thursday (July 27th). I suppose we shouldn`t be too surprised
since we`re heading towards our climatological temperature peak in
early August. Another bonus nugget for those that have made it this
far into the AFD: the City of Houston is currently on pace for the
2nd warmest July on record (down by only 0.2°F on July 2022 as of
today), so this extended period in the upper 90s could help us stay
close to or even reach the #1 spot.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Generally light winds through the TAF period. Brief gusty SE winds
possible later this afternoon, especially in areas that experience
the sea breeze. Another MVFR deck possible tomorrow morning.
Guidance is not as aggressive with this MVFR deck likely due to
drier air. Therefore, less widespread MVFR cigs expected tomorrow
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Relatively benign period of marine conditions expected to continue
into next week with southerly to southeasterly winds being prevalent
for most of the time, but there will be brief periods during the
overnight hours of winds transitioning to southwesterly. Expect
winds to remain generally in the 10-15 knot range. Winds become
predominantly southerly throughout most of next week with seas
remaining in the 2 to 3 ft range. Rain chances return to the
forecast this weekend, especially on Sunday, as an upper level
disturbance pushes through the region. Rain chances decrease again
next week as the heatdome moves back in.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 100 80 101 / 0 10 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 90 81 92 / 10 20 0 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 202023
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
323 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
It is another hot afternoon across southeast Texas. Temperatures
appear to be well on their way to at least 100F across much of the
CWA. Even some obs in interior portions of coastal counties are
rising into the upper-90s as I type this AFD. However, there is one
small silver lining to the weather today. Thanks to good ole fashion
mixing, our 70-something degree dew points have dropped into the 60s
for most inland areas. Some locations in our northern most counties
have already mixed down to low-60s dew points! So at least heat
index values are not as high as they could be. It remains hot enough
to practice heat safety. Also worth mentioning the dew points near
the coast remain in the 70s. Quite sticky at the beaches! Temps
overnight may drop a couple degrees cooler than last night. But it
will still feel summery.
The pattern in recent days has been dominated by an impressive UL
high pressure ridge. Technically, this will remain the case for
quite some time. However, this ridge is in the early stages of a
slow westward retrograde that will open the door to less hot
temperatures and better rain chances. Friday still promises to be
quite hot (near 100F once again for many of you). But with a modest
decrease in mid/upper heights and the introduction of rising PWs
(especially near the coast), we have added slight (15-20 percent)
PoPs across our coastal counties for tomorrow. The sea breeze may
provide just enough lift to kick off isolated showers or even a
thunderstorm. But since ridging remains relatively robust, we
couldn`t justify going higher with our PoPs. In addition, increasing
850-700MB RH values could limit the mixing induced dew point drop
during the afternoon, especially over our southern counties.
Therefore, it is not a surprise that our max apparent temperature
grids near and south of I-10 are generally a little hotter tomorrow
than they are today. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for the
entire CWA through tomorrow evening.
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Thursday)
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
By Saturday morning, a cold front (don`t get too excited...trust me)
will be on our doorsteps as an upper level trough deepens over the
Mississippi River Valley. This front is fairly weak and will do
nothing for us in terms of temperatures, but it will help us out
with rain chances though! With the midlevel high retrograding to the
west, this places our region in the ever so favorable northwesterly
flow aloft. Couple that with moisture convergence from the
approaching frontal boundary leading to PW values surging to 1.8"-
2.2" (90th percentile: ~2.16") over the weekend, and we have a
fairly good chance of cooling showers/storms. Sunday appears to be
the most favorable day with 50-70% PoPs, but don`t overlook Saturday
either. Depending on how far south the weak quasi-stationary frontal
boundary makes it, we could see a boundary collision between it and
the sea breeze on Saturday afternoon like some models are depicting
(check out 1000mb-850mb frontogenesis). This could lead to greater
coverage of convection, but in general the coverage should be
greater east of I-45 on Saturday whereas Sunday will feature more
widespread convection.
With PW values near or exceeding the 90th percentile this weekend,
some of these storms could feature locally heavy rainfall. I`ve
heard that some are curious about our potential for strong to severe
storms over the weekend as well, so let`s talk about it! While we do
have steep sfc-3km lapse rates (8-9°C/km), DCAPE around 1000-1200
J/kg, and MUCAPE generally ranging from 1500-2500 J/kg, our bulk
shear looks to be no greater than 25-30 knots. So, while some storms
will be capable of being strong enough to drop heavy rain and gusty
winds at times, the shear is expected to be too weak for updrafts to
sustain this for an extended period of time. Hopefully that answers
those questions! As far as temperatures go, we`ll still be hot with
highs in the upper 90s/low 100s. However, there`ll be more of a
chance that we get some rain to help cool us off in the
afternoon/evening (at the cost of increased mugginess post-rain).
The daily chances for showers/storms continues into Monday and
Tuesday, but after that things get a little bit tricky. We`re still
anticipating a fairly decent plume of Saharan dust to move in on
Tuesday afternoon. In addition to that, the midlevel high (heatdome)
will be moving back to the east towards TX. Due to both of these
factors, I`ve trimmed down PoPs to ~20% after midweek. The next few
sentences are very nerdy/technical, so sorry in advance. Saharan
dust typically leads to suppressed rain chances due to a surge in
dust particles that will act as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN).
This means there would be less water to attach to each CCN leading
to smaller droplets. These smaller droplets would have a much harder
time reaching the surface (especially with model soundings still
showing a dry sfc-1km layer) thus reducing the probability of
rainfall. Isn`t Science fun?!
Temperatures will remain solidly in the upper 90s throughout the
rest of the long term period. If you`re looking for hope in the
"beyond the long term" period...wellllll...you might wanna sit down
for this one. The midlevel high looks to sit over the Southern
Plains throughout next week and into next weekend. The Climate
Prediction Center released their latest outlook with Texas solidly
in the likely above normal probabilities for temperatures beyond
next Thursday (July 27th). I suppose we shouldn`t be too surprised
since we`re heading towards our climatological temperature peak in
early August. Another bonus nugget for those that have made it this
far into the AFD: the City of Houston is currently on pace for the
2nd warmest July on record (down by only 0.2°F on July 2022 as of
today), so this extended period in the upper 90s could help us stay
close to or even reach the #1 spot.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1217 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Generally light winds through the TAF period. Brief gusty SE winds
possible later this afternoon, especially in areas that experience
the sea breeze. Another MVFR deck possible tomorrow morning.
Guidance is not as aggressive with this MVFR deck likely due to
drier air. Therefore, less widespread MVFR cigs expected tomorrow
morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 323 PM CDT Thu Jul 20 2023
Relatively benign period of marine conditions expected to continue
into next week with southerly to southeasterly winds being prevalent
for most of the time, but there will be brief periods during the
overnight hours of winds transitioning to southwesterly. Expect
winds to remain generally in the 10-15 knot range. Winds become
predominantly southerly throughout most of next week with seas
remaining in the 2 to 3 ft range. Rain chances return to the
forecast this weekend, especially on Sunday, as an upper level
disturbance pushes through the region. Rain chances decrease again
next week as the heatdome moves back in.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 101 78 102 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 79 100 80 101 / 0 10 0 30
Galveston (GLS) 82 90 81 92 / 10 20 0 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Friday for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste
-
srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19619
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
I know you SE Texas folk are looking for some relief from the heat anywhere you can. The upper air pattern looks to shift enough W to bring rain chances to the Region beginning Saturday night into next Monday. We've had storms all day here in the Smoky Mountains with temperatures in the low to mid 60's. My Sister and Brother in Law from La Porte fly up next Friday for a weekend getaway to the mountains. Fingers crossed most of you folks see some showers!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Yeah, we haven't seen even the 20-30% progged this weekend since the Jul 4 holiday.srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Jul 20, 2023 7:22 pm I know you SE Texas folk are looking for some relief from the heat anywhere you can. The upper air pattern looks to shift enough W to bring rain chances to the Region beginning Saturday night into next Monday. We've had storms all day here in the Smoky Mountains with temperatures in the low to mid 60's. My Sister and Brother in Law from La Porte fly up next Friday for a weekend getaway to the mountains. Fingers crossed most of you folks see some showers!
Send us some rain - even a flash flood!
GFS has a CAT 3 in the Gulf at the end of July.
Salt, meet grain...but just a sign of things to come.
Salt, meet grain...but just a sign of things to come.
There are actually clouds in the sky in Houston.