July 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
user:null
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davidiowx wrote: Fri Jul 28, 2023 7:58 pmMaps like this are becoming more and more common it seems. Next few years it could be the opposite.
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Maps like that are also an illusion, as they make Texas look like the blank donut with rain everywhere else. The reality is that all the qpf shown in NW Mexico through the Western US is specifically elevation/orographic related: much of that area would be blank if the land were flat and at sea-level.

Additionally, it's not just Texas that is largely blank. Arkansas, Oklahoma, and even Louisiana and parts of Mississippi have sizable areas of blank in that map too. Of course, the Pacific Coast states also are blank too.
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri Jul 28, 2023 4:08 pm
jasons2k wrote: Fri Jul 28, 2023 10:01 am Also FWIW I don’t trust any “opinions” on climate change coming from anyone in the Oil and Gas industry. That may not be a popular opinion in Houston, but you know the old saying “follow the money”

I think I would rather trust a bunch of underpaid scientists doing their life’s passion versus overpaid spokespeople on a PR mission to convince the public to keep buying their products. 🤷‍♂️

💰💰💰
Pretty broad brush stroke to paint all oil & gas folks as not knowing anything about the environment and only caring about money. I used to work on CO2 capture projects in my old group (they still do this) and my entire portfolio of research right now is on eliminating substances of concern, safer chemistries, and post consumer recycling. My company is even investing a ton into nuclear power to minimize carbon footprint for electrical needs to power their own facilities.

I wish the US had gone nuclear years ago, like France.

It takes 5-7 years to build a plant, but there are so many regulations it could be 10+ years to get one online

Unfortunately, not too many nuclear power plants have been built since the 80s. Many of the licenses are set to expire in the next 20 years.

https://www.eia.gov/nuclear/spent_fuel/ussnftab2.php

Some of the more recent nuclear power plants are in Tennessee.

Good luck - what's the plan of action?
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DoctorMu
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GFS has that NW flow bringing in a bit of s/w action beginning the second week of August. Fingers crossed.
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Stratton20
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Models are sniffing out another front in the first week of august ( around the 5th-6th , fingers crossed!
GFS has a stalled out front and widespread rains
Cromagnum
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I am so fed up with this season. Sucks, knowing it's going to be like this until October.
Cpv17
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Cromagnum wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 12:44 pm I am so fed up with this season. Sucks, knowing it's going to be like this until October.
Yeah but I’m hearing late August into September we could get some rain but as far as any cool weather we’ll probably have to wait till late October for that.
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The GFS is looking better for rain during the latter half of the first week of august, fingers crossed
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 1:33 pm The GFS is looking better for rain during the latter half of the first week of august, fingers crossed
I’m hearing this coming week could be the hottest of the year. Sh*t 🤦‍♂️ at least I’m not really working outside anymore and have my own office now.
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Cpv17 I wouldnt be surprised at all if it is, gosh winter cant get here soon enough, this has been one of the most miserable summers Ive ever lived through here
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 2:02 pm Cpv17 I wouldnt be surprised at all if it is, gosh winter cant get here soon enough, this has been one of the most miserable summers Ive ever lived through here
I wouldn’t even mind it if at least we had daily afternoon storm chances like they do in FL. But this crap of 100° every day with hardly a drop of rain is for the birds. I’ve only gotten 1” of rain in the past two months. How my area is only in the abnormally dry category on the drought map is beyond me. Our pasture here is fried and our yard would be too if not for watering it and raising the blade up when we cut it. And the cotton out here looks terrible this year unless it was irrigated. And crazy thing is, cotton doesn’t even like much rain but still needs at least a lil bit.
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The biggest winner this week in terms of storm coverage has been Brazoria county, and nearby areas of Matagorda (i.e. Bay City): they've been having nice cells provide rain for that area, even during the SAL outbreak. In contrast, coverage was much more sparce for the rest of Houston, though Sugar Land and especially Hobby have gotten some good hits (Hobby got 1.58 inches of rain on Tuesday!).
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 2:07 pmI wouldn’t even mind it if at least we had daily afternoon storm chances like they do in FL. But this crap of 100° every day with hardly a drop of rain is for the birds. I’ve only gotten 1” of rain in the past two months. How my area is only in the abnormally dry category on the drought map is beyond me. Our pasture here is fried and our yard would be too if not for watering it and raising the blade up when we cut it. And the cotton out here looks terrible this year unless it was irrigated. And crazy thing is, cotton doesn’t even like much rain but still needs at least a lil bit.
It always seemed like Louisiana was water-logged. But I've looked at their totals recently, and many areas haven't been that much better than the HOU area so far this summer: Port Arthur, Lake Charles, Baton Rouge, New Iberia, even New Orleans are all in significant deficits so far this summer. Port Arthur is only just over 2 inches so far this month, while New Orleans is a bit over 3 inches (great deficit compared to their average).
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Cromagnum
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user:null wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 3:05 pm The biggest winner this week in terms of storm coverage has been Brazoria county, and nearby areas of Matagorda (i.e. Bay City): they've been having nice cells provide rain for that area, even during the SAL outbreak. In contrast, coverage was much more sparce for the rest of Houston, though Sugar Land and especially Hobby have gotten some good hits (Hobby got 1.58 inches of rain on Tuesday!).
Parts of Brazoria County have gotten rain almost every day. I haven't seen anything in a month.
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DoctorMu
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Ensembles are starting to buy into GFS prog of a decent chance of rail around August 8th.

CMC, GFS, GEPS see a cold front penetrating to near SETX before washing out. Euro has the front easing down through north Texas.

This week might have been fruitful for us, but the Saharan dust pulverized any chances.

28 freakin' days until football season!
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:04 pm Ensembles are starting to buy into GFS prog of a decent chance of rail around August 8th.

CMC, GFS, GEPS see a cold front penetrating to near SETX before washing out. Euro has the front easing down through north Texas.

This week might have been fruitful for us, but the Saharan dust pulverized any chances.

28 freakin' days until football season!
If you’re referring to A&M, I wouldn’t get your hopes up. I’m honestly surprised they’re still getting so many top recruits. Their bag game must be strong.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:49 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:04 pm Ensembles are starting to buy into GFS prog of a decent chance of rail around August 8th.

CMC, GFS, GEPS see a cold front penetrating to near SETX before washing out. Euro has the front easing down through north Texas.

This week might have been fruitful for us, but the Saharan dust pulverized any chances.

28 freakin' days until football season!
If you’re referring to A&M, I wouldn’t get your hopes up. I’m honestly surprised they’re still getting so many top recruits. Their bag game must be strong.
With Dumbo? No way!

NIL the Thrill.

Just looking forward to watching SEC and NCAAF in the comfort of my home - there's only golf and baseball contests that don't really count on TV now. A&M doesn't play on the first weekend.

When A&M comes for Elko after Duke runs through a weak ACC this season, they're going to have to pay a premium buyout now, meaning 2 large buyouts. ;)
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MontgomeryCoWx
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DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 6:51 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:49 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:04 pm Ensembles are starting to buy into GFS prog of a decent chance of rail around August 8th.

CMC, GFS, GEPS see a cold front penetrating to near SETX before washing out. Euro has the front easing down through north Texas.

This week might have been fruitful for us, but the Saharan dust pulverized any chances.

28 freakin' days until football season!
If you’re referring to A&M, I wouldn’t get your hopes up. I’m honestly surprised they’re still getting so many top recruits. Their bag game must be strong.
With Dumbo? No way!

NIL the Thrill.

Just looking forward to watching SEC and NCAAF in the comfort of my home - there's only golf and baseball contests that don't really count on TV now. A&M doesn't play on the first weekend.

When A&M comes for Elko after Duke runs through a weak ACC this season, they're going to have to pay a premium buyout now, meaning 2 large buyouts. ;)
The only major college coach, in Texas, worse than Jimbo is Sark. Texas going on year 13 of **** results.

DoctorMu, are you DukeMu on TexAgs?
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jasons2k
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This next week will go down as the hottest week of the summer for us. Stay hydrated and cool.
Stratton20
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Im definitely encouraged by the GFS over night run, hopefully the prospect for increased rain chances in the first week of august continue to improve!
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 7:08 pm
DoctorMu wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 6:51 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jul 29, 2023 5:49 pm

If you’re referring to A&M, I wouldn’t get your hopes up. I’m honestly surprised they’re still getting so many top recruits. Their bag game must be strong.
With Dumbo? No way!

NIL the Thrill.

Just looking forward to watching SEC and NCAAF in the comfort of my home - there's only golf and baseball contests that don't really count on TV now. A&M doesn't play on the first weekend.

When A&M comes for Elko after Duke runs through a weak ACC this season, they're going to have to pay a premium buyout now, meaning 2 large buyouts. ;)
The only major college coach, in Texas, worse than Jimbo is Sark. Texas going on year 13 of **** results.

DoctorMu, are you DukeMu on TexAgs?
I do think Texas ends up with a better record than A&M this year though but that’s mostly cuz they have 2-3 guys that could be first round picks in next years draft. They will miss Bijan a lot though. A&M has so much talent but like Texas, they have development problems. This coming season will make or break Sark imo.
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