July 2023

[DoctorMu]

Yes, that is an actual FROPA in the area tomorrow and Sunday. Will we see much rain? Probably not.

[biggerbyte]

Folks, I'm not noticing much chatter about 95L. It's just something to keep an eye on at the moment. I'd bet it is worth some discussion, even at the juncture.

[Stratton20]

Ita definitely worth keeping an eye on, the EPS guidance is pretty aggressive with this as well as some of the hurricane models, the upper level wind shear is very light in the gulf right now, if 95L manages and thats a big * IF* to get into the gulf, that could be a huge problem

12z EPS definitely has gotten my attention

[DoctorMu]

Also if the front reaches the Gulf - there could be some action.

[DoctorMu]

Folks, I'm not noticing much chatter about 95L. It's just something to keep an eye on at the moment. I'd bet it is worth some discussion, even at the juncture.

The current environment over the Caribbean will likely destroy 95L. Wait another month.

FROPA in the Gulf could be a better chance of development. We'll see.

[user:null]

There are actually clouds in the sky in Houston.

There are actually storms on radar in the Houston viewing area now.

[DoctorMu]

^Nice little seabreeze.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/s ... &length=24

[jasons2k]

NWS had me at 60% Sunday now lowered to 50%.

My water bill is going to be painful.

[Stratton20]

Got absolutely teased by a cell, went just to the east of me by a mile🥲

[jasons2k]

NWS had me at 60% Sunday now lowered to 50%.

My water bill is going to be painful.

Now it’s down to 20% tomorrow. I’m so done with Texas summers.

[suprdav2]

NWS had me at 60% Sunday now lowered to 50%.

My water bill is going to be painful.

Now it’s down to 20% tomorrow. I’m so done with Texas summers.

Same with me. Was at 70% earlier in the week, now down to 20% tomorrow. I'm convinced that it's because the on air mets were hyping it up.

[Stratton20]

So much for the front sparking off some showers and storms🥲 , winter cant get here soon enough

[Cpv17]

So much for the front sparking off some showers and storms🥲 , winter cant get here soon enough

HRRR has some action for tomorrow. At least the 12z run did.

[DoctorMu]

Yes, Virginia, there is a FROPA.

I can report clouds and a 5NW wind in CLL! 98°F, but that beats 103°F.

Look for showers to develop along the front plater this afternoon.

Don't expect a lot of relief from the heat. However - there are some showers developing NE of HOU. Expect that line to expand slowly and move SW through the evening.

[DoctorMu]

So much for the front sparking off some showers and storms🥲 , winter cant get here soon enough

HRRR has some action for tomorrow. At least the 12z run did.

There will be a front draped across the area, as weak as it is.


We also need to watch the front if it drifts into the Gulf.

[Stratton20]

DoctorMu i though the front has already made it to the coast?

[DoctorMu]

NWS has the front stalled tomorrow and Monday.

We'll probably get Lucy'd up in CLL, but HOU has a chance.

[DoctorMu]

DoctorMu i though the front has already made it to the coast?

Around the Woodlands. There's energy behind it east of I-45

[DoctorMu]

The pattern is better, but beginning on Tuesday the Saharan dust is going to *&$# up the small rise in rain probability over the next few days.

Still, we'll have a stalled front and running s/ws as the focus for potential showers. PWs are high enough. The ridge just weak enough. Don't expect widespread coverage, but you never know.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1230 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

...New AVIATION...

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1220 PM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Anticipate that we`ll see some iso-sct shra/tstms develop after
21z in association with daytime heating, a diffuse frontal
boundary across northern parts of the area and also weak
seabreeze boundary across southern parts. Varying model solutions
on overall coverage & intensity this evening and probably
dependent on outflow and boundary interactions. Small chances of
precip may persist overnight as some weak upper disturbances track
into, or near, the region in the nnw flow aloft. Outside of any
convection, VFR conditions and light winds should persist. 47

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

The heat continues today but increasing rain and storm chances are
included in the forecast. Upper pattern will transition to the
northwest component as the ridge builds over the Desert SW/Four
Corners, resulting in different weak shortwaves moving across our
area. At the sfc, moisture and instability continue on the increase
with PWs at or above 1.7 inches. The combination of these
ingredients, daytime heating and sfc convergence due to an
approaching weak cold front and sea breeze interaction will lead to
isolated/scattered showers and thunderstorms during the day. The
best chances will be in the afternoon and evening as the
aforementioned boundary slowly moves over the region. Temperatures,
on the other hand, remain hot with highs from the upper 90s to 102F
and dangerous heat indices up to 112F. Heat Advisories are in effect
for the entire region through late this evening.

The aforementioned weak boundary looks to stall over the region
tonight/Sunday. With weak vort maxes aloft and the stalled boundary,
chances for precipitation will continue on Sunday. The first round
of showers/storms will be in the morning with passing mid-level
shortwave(s) to our northeast, and then again in the afternoon with
any lingering outflow boundaries and/or seabreeze interaction. In
terms of temperatures, it will generally be a few degrees cooler
than today. North-northeast surface winds and partly cloudy skies
should allow for highs mainly in the mid 90s to near 100.
Overnight lows from the upper 70s to low 80s can be expected each
night.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Long term forecast still remains very stagnant. A mid to upper level
ridge over the Southwestern CONUS/Four corners region should begin
to drift eastward heading into next week. While 500mb heights are
progged to rise early next week, SE Texas should remain on the
peripheral of the ridge, allowing shortwave impulses to pass
overhead and tap into PWs in excess of 1.5 inches. This should
periodically bring showers and thunderstorms across portions of the
region, particularly during the afternoon hours with support from
the sea/bay breeze. 850mb temperatures are are still progged to be
around 20-25C through most of next week, so daytime highs should
largely remain in the 90s to lower 100s throughout most of the week.
However, increased cloud cover and a mild reduction in 850mb
temperatures should ease highs down gradually in the coming days.
Drier conditions in the lower levels and improved afternoon mixing
should also work to ease heat indices during this period as well.

A plume of Saharan dust is also expected to drift into SE Texas
around Tuesday next week. This should work to hinder rain chances
over the next several days, along with bringing hazy sky conditions
as well. NAEFS 500mb geopotential height anomalies decrease on
Wednesday, hinting at more relief from the oppressive heat during
the later half of the work week.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 344 AM CDT Sat Jul 22 2023

Light to moderate onshore winds with seas 2 to 3 feet are expected
to prevail through late next week. Rain chances will increase
through Sunday as a weak frontal boundary approaches the area.
Scattered showers and storms will be possible daily next week,
especially during the afternoon hours.

03

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 102 78 100 75 / 20 20 10 10
Houston (IAH) 100 80 99 78 / 30 40 20 20
Galveston (GLS) 92 82 91 81 / 20 30 30 20

[Stratton20]

Well thats some good news that even with the ridge moving back in we stay on the periphery, definitely a more encouraging read compared to previous forecasts the last few weeks