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From Eric Blake - Twitter/X

“I’ve seen this signature way too much during the past several years- rapid intensification before US landfall. #Idalia is showing all the bad signs, and that all-too-familiar pit-in-the-stomach feeling is back. This has catastrophe written all over it- please be safe! pic.twitter.com/jiOd6QOch8
-- Eric Blake (@EricBlake12) August 29, 2023“

WTNT45 KNHC 291454
TCDAT5

Hurricane Idalia Discussion Number 12
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL102023
1100 AM EDT Tue Aug 29 2023

WSR-88D radar data from Key West shows that Idalia's eye is
becoming better defined at an elevation of 30,000 feet, although an
eye has not yet become apparent in visible satellite imagery. A
NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported a closed eye 20-25 n mi in
diameter, SFMR winds as high as 70 kt, and a central pressure down
to 976 mb. This pressure, and assuming some undersampling of the
SFMR, supports an initial intensity of 75 kt.

Idalia is moving just east of due north, or 005/12 kt, between a
mid-level trough over the Gulf of Mexico and subtropical ridging
over the Greater Antilles. A faster motion toward the north or
north-northeast is expected while Idalia approaches the Florida
coast through Wednesday morning. Confidence is increasing that
Idalia will reach the coast of Florida adjacent to Apalachee Bay
Wednesday morning, with all of the reliable deterministic track
models honed in on that area. Track spread remains low during
Idalia's expected turn toward the northeast and east-northeast in
48-60 hours, bringing the storm's center near or along the coast of
the Carolinas. On days 3 through 5, there is significant
uncertainty on whether Idalia will turn out to sea (as shown by the
COAMPS-TC and HAFS models) or turn southward (as suggested by the
global models). For now, the official forecast shows a slow motion
at the end of the forecast period until the scenario becomes
clearer.

Idalia is currently over a maximum of oceanic heat content
associated with the Loop Current, and water temperatures remain
30-31 degrees Celsius along the forecast path up until landfall.
Vertical shear is also expected to be low for the next 18-24 hours,
and these conditions are expected to foster rapid intensification
before Idalia reaches the coast of Florida. The 06 UTC runs of all
4 regional hurricane models (HAFS-A, HAFS-B, HWRF, and HMON) show
Idalia potentially reaching an intensity of 110-120 kt in 24 hours,
and as a result, the new NHC intensity forecast indicates a peak
intensity of 110 kt just before landfall. Weakening is forecast
while the center of Idalia moves over land, but the system is
expected to be a tropical storm while it moves near or along the
coasts of Georgia and the Carolinas through Thursday.


KEY MESSAGES:

1. Catastrophic impacts from storm surge inundation of 10 to 15 feet
above ground level and destructive waves are expected somewhere
between Aucilla River and Yankeetown, Florida. Life-threatening
storm surge inundation is likely elsewhere along portions of the
Florida Gulf Coast where a Storm Surge Warning is in effect.
Residents in these areas should follow any advice or evacuation
orders given by local officials.

2. There is the potential for destructive life-threatening winds
where the core of Idalia moves onshore in the Big Bend region of
Florida, with hurricane conditions expected elsewhere in portions of
the Hurricane Warning area along the Florida Gulf Coast. Strong
winds will also spread inland across portions of northern Florida
and southern Georgia near the track of the center of Idalia where
Hurricane Warnings are in effect. Residents in these areas should be
prepared for long-duration power outages.

3. Areas of flash and urban flooding, some of which may be locally
significant, are expected across portions of the west coast of
Florida, the Florida Panhandle, and southern Georgia Tuesday into
Wednesday, spreading into portions of the eastern Carolinas
Wednesday into Thursday.

4. Heavy rainfall from Tropical Storm Idalia is expected across
portions western Cuba and may produce areas of flash and urban
flooding as well as landslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 24.6N 84.8W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 30/0000Z 26.5N 84.6W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 30/1200Z 29.3N 83.7W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 31/0000Z 31.8N 81.7W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
48H 31/1200Z 33.5N 78.8W 45 KT 50 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 01/0000Z 34.1N 75.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 01/1200Z 33.8N 73.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
96H 02/1200Z 32.5N 70.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
120H 03/1200Z 32.0N 68.8W 45 KT 50 MPH

Sheesh Idalia is bombing out in the GoM at least by satellite imagery. Sheesh what a disaster this could be. Thankful it isn't heading here but prayers those that are going to take this head on.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:22 am

sambucol wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:02 am I’ve heard a few people in person talking about something coming into the GOM next week with a possible threat to Texas/Louisiana. Does anyone know anything about this?

The second week of September needs to be watched for our area.

Thank you. The talk was around September 8 is when the system would be in the GOM. Not in stone. But it was not the hurricane hitting Florida. It was a different system altogether.

sambucol wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 3:02 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:22 am

sambucol wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:02 am I’ve heard a few people in person talking about something coming into the GOM next week with a possible threat to Texas/Louisiana. Does anyone know anything about this?

The second week of September needs to be watched for our area.

Thank you. The talk was around September 8 is when the system would be in the GOM. Not in stone. But it was not the hurricane hitting Florida. It was a different system altogether.

Yep. It’s the storm the EPS/Euro has developing in the MDR. Possible long tracker/huge ACE generator.

Thats so far out though, i personally dont really start watching systems until they get in the NW caribbean, thats when my interest goes up because they cant just turn out to sea, they would have to effect land somewhere

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:08 pm Thats so far out though, i personally dont really start watching systems until they get in the NW caribbean, thats when my interest goes up because they cant just turn out to sea, they would have to effect land somewhere

Not me. I track storms throughout their whole journey but once I find out they won’t come here then I stop paying attention to them. You can generally tell if a storm is going to be a recurve or not by looking at the steering pattern on the ensembles. When Harvey hit here, I started tracking it when it was still on land over Africa because I was seeing signals that it could get into the Gulf. I’m not saying that storm could get into the Gulf yet (it’s still too early to say that) but it’s not really looking like a recurve at the present time. Also, it may not even develop but the Euro and EPS both show development so it very well could develop. We’ll see. Peak season is right around the corner.

Cpv17 I have to say the Euro and EPS has done surprisingly well with sniffing out systems this year, it was the first to sniff out idalia and first to show it becoming a hurricane and its done exactly that, ill watch it but i usually get more interested if something gets into the caribbean

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 5:47 pm Cpv17 I have to say the Euro and EPS has done surprisingly well with sniffing out systems this year, it was the first to sniff out idalia and first to show it becoming a hurricane and its done exactly that, ill watch it but i usually get more interested if something gets into the caribbean

The thing is, when something gets into the Caribbean, you can pretty easily tell if it’s gonna get in the Gulf from that point. That’s not even really a challenge lol.

Plus right now the models are hella boring. There’s nothing even remotely close (outside of this future possible storm) that’s worth talking about.

Idalia's looking kinda bad@$$ now. No more lopsides toward the east.

https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/goes/s ... &length=24

I’d gladly take a Cat 2right up Rockport right now.

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:25 pm I’d gladly take a Cat 2right up Rockport right now.

Same here!

Idalia is a perfect example of be careful what you wish for, seems like the basin goes quiet after this system for a while

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 11:31 pm

MontgomeryCoWx wrote: ↑Tue Aug 29, 2023 10:25 pm I’d gladly take a Cat 2right up Rockport right now.

Same here!

Gimme that dirty, rainy side!

945 MB on the way down to 930s. Idalia is Bombing out.

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 1:45 am 945 MB on the way down to 930s. Idalia is Bombing out.

Looks like Keaton Beach landfall.

I just got a text from a friend saying that Chevron is shutting down and evacuation all their oil platforms in the gulf due to additional storms being forecast.

Is this a fake rumor or something real? Are they confusing Idalia with something coming later?

Seems a bit early, and therefore suspicious, to me.

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 9:54 am I just got a text from a friend saying that Chevron is shutting down and evacuation all their oil platforms in the gulf due to additional storms being forecast.

Is this a fake rumor or something real? Are they confusing Idalia with something coming later?

Seems a bit early, and therefore suspicious, to me.

I've never heard of such a thing i see no threat.

That cant be a real post, their are no additional storm threats to the gulf beyond idalia, sounds like cheveron has absolutely zero clue what they are talking about, i call serious BS

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Wed Aug 30, 2023 11:43 am That cant be a real post, their are no additional storm threats to the gulf beyond idalia, sounds like cheveron has absolutely zero clue what they are talking about, i call serious BS

Same here. Maybe the second week of September but that’s way too far out.