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Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 4:24 pm**

97°F looks like it is going to be the high, breaking our record-smashing 50 days straight of 100°F highs in CLL. Unbelievable.

TBH, temps in the 90s never felt so good! lol. Clouds and a nice NE breeze at 10-15 mph helps!

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 4:31 pm**

At least it’s 96 and not 106.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 4:45 pm**

Still in the 100’s down here. Made it to 102°F with a feels like of 109°F.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 4:59 pm**

I guess no storms today. NWSLC went from 70% now to 50%. That’ll be a dud and QPF of Texas is getting awfully bare of any rain next 7 days.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:09 pm**

djmike wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 4:59 pm I guess no storms today. NWSLC went from 70% now to 50%. That’ll be a dud and QPF of Texas is getting awfully bare of any rain next 7 days.

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again! If we want rain, our best bet is to get it from the tropics. Which is exactly why I’m rooting for at least a decent tropical wave to get in here. I’d be even fine with a low end cane at this point.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:29 pm**

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 2:35 pmOut west..

Yeah, I concur with Cromagnum and cp17: everything is just weird this year.

Moisture source? Gulf of Mexico? So what ingredients are missing that is causing this area to be so devoid of activity compared to those inland (drier) locations.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:30 pm**

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:09 pm
djmike wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 4:59 pm I guess no storms today. NWSLC went from 70% now to 50%. That’ll be a dud and QPF of Texas is getting awfully bare of any rain next 7 days.
I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again! If we want rain, our best bet is to get it from the tropics. Which is exactly why I’m rooting for at least a decent tropical wave to get in here. I’d be even fine with a low end cane at this point.

I agree with you

%

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:31 pm**

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:09 pmI’ve said it before and I’ll say it again! If we want rain, our best bet is to get it from the tropics. Which is exactly why I’m rooting for at least a decent tropical wave to get in here. I’d be even fine with a low end cane at this point.

Yeah, "midlatitude influence" is what wrecks the climate here: freezes during winter (IMO, although many here do like wintry precip), whereas during summer troughs flux away all moisture to the northeast, with associated weak "coldfronts" driving record high temps via compresisonal heating.

A pure tropical influence here wouldn't have any of that nonsense. I don't think there'd even be much in the way of strong "death ridges" at all (see: Indian Subcontinent).

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:40 pm**

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 2:56 pm Guess we aren't getting anything afterall.

I don't understand it either. The convection is obviouslly happening, as I see big cumulus clouds around the area.

But where are the storms? Any activity will only have a small window between now thru around 8PM or so.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:43 pm**

jasons2k wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 4:31 pm At least it’s 96 and not 106.

15°F lower than yesterday. 97°F vs. 112°F

We're at a nice "comfortable" 90°F.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:47 pm**

Imagine that, the forecast around here is totally wrong.

I just KNEW yesterday when most all of our area missed out that we weren't getting **** today when it was suppose to be "our turn". To hell with this miserable POS season.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:55 pm**

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:47 pm Imagine that, the forecast around here is totally wrong.

I just KNEW yesterday when most all of our area missed out that we weren't getting **** today when it was suppose to be "our turn". To hell with this miserable POS season.

Need a “Like” button lol. Totally agree and thought same thing. Storms all around my house yesterday and not one drop thinking today would be the day.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:57 pm**

Loads of activity in New Orleans eastward (though the shear bulk is north of Lake Ponchatrain). And somehow, inland Texas can get activity.

Meanwhile, everywhere between from SETX here east into Acadiana is totally blank (except the lone complex around Lake Charles).

And this is what the NWS office writes:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 282101
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
Issued by National Weather Service Corpus Christi TX
401 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 344 PM CDT Mon Aug 28 2023

The combination of a weak surface boundary and copious moisture
may result in isolated/scattered convection later this
afternoon/evening. The GFS/ECMWF predict an upper level pattern
that increasingly becomes conducive to subsidence over the CWA
Tuesday/Tuesday night as the upper ridge builds over the
southwestern CONUS. PWAT values are predicted to fall
significantly Tuesday, limiting convection to near the coast due
to a possible sea breeze boundary/sufficient moisture.

&&

Seriously, these weather forecasters suck. They keep making such huge screwups, it's not even funny.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:32 pm**

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:47 pm Imagine that, the forecast around here is totally wrong.

I just KNEW yesterday when most all of our area missed out that we weren't getting **** today when it was suppose to be "our turn". To hell with this miserable POS season.

It is not cool that we got no rain.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:44 pm**

Ptarmigan wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:32 pm
Cromagnum wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 5:47 pm Imagine that, the forecast around here is totally wrong.

I just KNEW yesterday when most all of our area missed out that we weren't getting **** today when it was suppose to be "our turn". To hell with this miserable POS season.
It is not cool that we got no rain.

2nd bust in a row for a lot of us. Remember, most of us had a solid 70% chance of rain advertised with the tropical wave that later became Harold, only to have that yanked away when the storm decided to stay south, taking all the moisture with it.

Then this - we were all supposed to cash-in on at least ONE of the two days the front was around. High rain chances in the forecast all week and then at the last minute - jilted again. It's just ridiculous. I'm sure when the drought ends, in typical Texas fashion, we'll get it all back at once.

Side note - speaking of Harold - it seems like that storm is ancient history now and yet Franklin is still out there, spinning away. Wish we still had James Franklin around to gives us some more humor about "Franklin the storm, not the forecaster" hehe.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:56 pm**

It doesn't make sense anymore: even factoring in the drought. Especially with the GOMEX supposed moisture source.

Can't blame it on Idalia when storms formed just fine today in areas of TX farther inland/west.

A lot of people say "drought-begets-drought." But that's clearly an incoherent concept if the LITERAL DESERT SOUTHWEST can have a "monsoon season".

Let it sink in how absurd everything is now: the very wet, lush, coastal location of Beaumont/Port Arthur (Jack Brooks) now has the same all-time record high as the much drier, father inland Abeline!

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:00 pm**

user:null wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 9:56 pm It doesn't make sense anymore: even factoring in the drought. Especially with the GOMEX supposed moisture source.

Can't blame it on Idalia when storms formed just fine today in areas of TX farther inland/west.

A lot of people say "drought-begets-drought." But that's clearly an incoherent concept if the LITERAL DESERT SOUTHWEST can have a "monsoon season".

Let it sink in how absurd everything is now: the very wet, lush, coastal location of Beaumont/Port Arthur (Jack Brooks) now has the same all-time record high as the much drier, father inland Abeline!

West to east flow carries more moisture from the Gulf towards the SE than it does to Texas. We get the desert air from west TX and Mexico.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:20 pm**

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:00 pmWest to east flow carries more moisture from the Gulf towards the SE than it does to Texas. We get the desert air from west TX and Mexico.

See, I'd agree with this on first glance. But then TV mets, general weather texts, etc state that the mid-latitude jetstream (responsible for west-to-east flow) pulls poleward during summer (meaning less influence during the season).

Not to mention the high frequency of 70°F+ dewpoints during summer in a lot of Texas. That's anything but desert air.

Part of what I mentioned was also based on outcomes today. While there was quite a bit of activity in New Orleans (Northshore) eastward, there was actually quite a bit of action/abudant cells farther west in Texas, in far inland, drier climate areas like Junction (Jasons2k posted a screenshot of this a few pages back). Meanwhile, both the Houston area and Golden Triangle/Acadiana missed out (except for a lone complex around Lake Charles).

110°F+ temps don't belong in humid swamps like Lafayette, Louisiana.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:39 pm**

user:null wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:20 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:00 pmWest to east flow carries more moisture from the Gulf towards the SE than it does to Texas. We get the desert air from west TX and Mexico.
See, I'd agree with this on first glance. But then TV mets, general weather texts, etc state that the mid-latitude jetstream (responsible for west-to-east flow) pulls poleward during summer (meaning less influence during the season).

Not to mention the high frequency of 70°F+ dewpoints during summer in a lot of Texas. That's anything but desert air.

Part of what I mentioned was also based on outcomes today. While there was quite a bit of activity in New Orleans (Northshore) eastward, there was actually quite a bit of action/abudant cells farther west in Texas, in far inland, drier climate areas like Junction (Jasons2k posted a screenshot of this a few pages back). Meanwhile, both the Houston area and Golden Triangle/Acadiana missed out (except for a lone complex around Lake Charles).

110°F+ temps don't belong in humid swamps like Lafayette, Louisiana.

Normally LA stays out of the drought, which makes this summer even more bizarre.

Posted: **Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:54 pm**

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:39 pm
user:null wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:20 pm
Cpv17 wrote: ↑Mon Aug 28, 2023 10:00 pmWest to east flow carries more moisture from the Gulf towards the SE than it does to Texas. We get the desert air from west TX and Mexico.
See, I'd agree with this on first glance. But then TV mets, general weather texts, etc state that the mid-latitude jetstream (responsible for west-to-east flow) pulls poleward during summer (meaning less influence during the season).

Not to mention the high frequency of 70°F+ dewpoints during summer in a lot of Texas. That's anything but desert air.

Part of what I mentioned was also based on outcomes today. While there was quite a bit of activity in New Orleans (Northshore) eastward, there was actually quite a bit of action/abudant cells farther west in Texas, in far inland, drier climate areas like Junction (Jasons2k posted a screenshot of this a few pages back). Meanwhile, both the Houston area and Golden Triangle/Acadiana missed out (except for a lone complex around Lake Charles).

110°F+ temps don't belong in humid swamps like Lafayette, Louisiana.
Normally LA stays out of the drought, which makes this summer even more bizarre.

They had some decent drought-denting rains throughout Louisiana yesterday and overnight. Nada for us in Galveston Co.

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