September 2023
Rain hates my house
I'm actually pleasantly surprised to see the amount of coverage that has been happening today, considering that the front earlier this week supposedly "pushed all the moisture offshore". Good storms in the Sugar Land area.
On track to be the hottest September we've ever had.
The GFS is probably on crack like normal, but this sure would be nice...
https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/17070 ... 21461?s=20
The GFS is probably on crack like normal, but this sure would be nice...
https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/17070 ... 21461?s=20
Some late night activity popping up north.
I don’t have the time or patience to mess with a 3rd party image site. My old photobucket images are toast.
I’ll post images on Storm2k where uploading works
I don’t have the time or patience to mess with a 3rd party image site. My old photobucket images are toast.
I’ll post images on Storm2k where uploading works
CMC in shocking agreement. GEPS ensemble is hesitant. GEFS goes along, but as expected.Cromagnum wrote: ↑Wed Sep 27, 2023 6:40 pm On track to be the hottest September we've ever had.
The GFS is probably on crack like normal, but this sure would be nice...
https://x.com/SCweather_wx/status/17070 ... 21461?s=20
Welp. TWC has jinxed it with a 45° low on the morning of the 8th.
-
txsnowmaker
- Posts: 632
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 4:07 pm
- Location: SW Houston (Galleria area)
- Contact:
??? TWC showing 68 degrees for low that day in Metro Houston.
https://weather.com/weather/tenday/l/1b ... Nav_Tenday
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 281119
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Drier air/subsidence aloft will continue to filter in over Southeast
TX today as a sfc high moves overhead and an upper level ridge
builds over the central CONUS. Despite a mid to upper level drier
airmass, PWAT values are progged to remain into the 1.3 to 1.8 inch
range today. Low level moisture, a few impulses of energy riding in
the northwest flow aloft and daytime heating will allow for isolated
showers and thunderstorms today. Most of the activity will remain
offshore and along the coastline. However, cannot ruled out a few
showers and storms popping up inland late this afternoon and evening.
Above normal temperatures continue with highs mainly from the mid to
upper 90s.
Synoptic pattern does not change much by Friday as the upper-ridge
remains over the Central/Southern Plains. This pattern will keep
relatively dry conditions across most of the area, with the
exception along our coastal counties and waters. Persistent easterly
surface flow along with passing mid level shortwaves will bring
increasing rain/storms chances over these locations during the day.
Have continued with 20-45 percent of PoPs generally south of I-10.
The best chances will be over the coastal waters.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Not too many changes with the long term as this warm summer-like pat-
tern persists over the weekend through the middle of next week. Progs
keep mid/upper ridging in place over the Southern Plains with surface
high pressure lingering over the eastern CONUS. A prevailing easterly
flow at the lower levels could bring periodic surges of deeper moist-
ure in from the Gulf (PWs ~2") during this timeframe which could then
translate to scattered POPs for mainly the southern/coastal CWA. High
temperatures should remain above normal...in the mid to upper 90s. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
VFR conditions with light east to southeasterly winds are expected
through the period. A few showers and storms will be possible
late this afternoon through early evening. Given moderate
confidence in occurrence near the terminals, have only included
VCSH.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Will be keeping with the forecast of generally light E/SE winds and
relatively low seas the next couple of days. But by the weekend, we
should see a more persistent and strengthening easterly fetch deve-
lop over our marine waters. However, winds/seas should remain below
Caution criteria. Additionally, periods of scattered showers/storms
will be possible...with winds and seas higher in and near this act-
ivity. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 72 97 72 / 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 95 73 95 73 / 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 90 80 / 20 40 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41
FXUS64 KHGX 281119
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
619 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Drier air/subsidence aloft will continue to filter in over Southeast
TX today as a sfc high moves overhead and an upper level ridge
builds over the central CONUS. Despite a mid to upper level drier
airmass, PWAT values are progged to remain into the 1.3 to 1.8 inch
range today. Low level moisture, a few impulses of energy riding in
the northwest flow aloft and daytime heating will allow for isolated
showers and thunderstorms today. Most of the activity will remain
offshore and along the coastline. However, cannot ruled out a few
showers and storms popping up inland late this afternoon and evening.
Above normal temperatures continue with highs mainly from the mid to
upper 90s.
Synoptic pattern does not change much by Friday as the upper-ridge
remains over the Central/Southern Plains. This pattern will keep
relatively dry conditions across most of the area, with the
exception along our coastal counties and waters. Persistent easterly
surface flow along with passing mid level shortwaves will bring
increasing rain/storms chances over these locations during the day.
Have continued with 20-45 percent of PoPs generally south of I-10.
The best chances will be over the coastal waters.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Not too many changes with the long term as this warm summer-like pat-
tern persists over the weekend through the middle of next week. Progs
keep mid/upper ridging in place over the Southern Plains with surface
high pressure lingering over the eastern CONUS. A prevailing easterly
flow at the lower levels could bring periodic surges of deeper moist-
ure in from the Gulf (PWs ~2") during this timeframe which could then
translate to scattered POPs for mainly the southern/coastal CWA. High
temperatures should remain above normal...in the mid to upper 90s. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 617 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
VFR conditions with light east to southeasterly winds are expected
through the period. A few showers and storms will be possible
late this afternoon through early evening. Given moderate
confidence in occurrence near the terminals, have only included
VCSH.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 406 AM CDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Will be keeping with the forecast of generally light E/SE winds and
relatively low seas the next couple of days. But by the weekend, we
should see a more persistent and strengthening easterly fetch deve-
lop over our marine waters. However, winds/seas should remain below
Caution criteria. Additionally, periods of scattered showers/storms
will be possible...with winds and seas higher in and near this act-
ivity. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 99 72 97 72 / 10 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 95 73 95 73 / 20 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 90 80 / 20 40 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41
Big changes on the CPC forecast today.
Nice storm coming up on the ship channel moving west.
Bring it:
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 291133
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
High pressure centered across the central/eastern CONUS will
continue to dominate the weather across most of Southeast TX today
and Saturday. This pattern will continue to bring easterly surface
flow, and hence, deeper Gulf moisture into the region. Therefore,
hot days are expected to continue during the short term period with
rain and storm chances, especially over the coastal zones. The main
weather maker will be a trough/weak easterly wave over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. This trough is progged to move westward into the
Upper TX coast and along the coastal counties today and should remain
over the region through Saturday evening; resulting in elevated rain
and storm chances. Most of this activity should remain along the
coast with the highest chances offshore. However, cannot rule out a
few showers and storms popping up further inland in the
afternoon/early evening given the combination of instability and
daytime heating.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Even with the mid/upper ridging holding in place over the region on
Sun/Mon, the persistent easterly fetch at the lower levels will con-
tinue to draw surges of deeper moisture (PWs from 1.6-1.9") into SW
and coastal portions of the FA from the Gulf. Combined with daytime
heating and embedded disturbances, this should translate to periods
of isolated to scattered activity from Sun through Tues. The better
POPs will be along the immediate coast to around the I-10 corridor.
As the mid/upper ridging begins weakening (as per the eastward trek
of the main longwave across the Central Plains), these rain chances
(30-40%) are expected to spread to cover much of the CWA on Wed. As
we head into Thur and Fri, even more changes are possible as global
models bring a strong cold front into and across the state. Will be
keeping elevated POPs in place for SE TX for this time frame (given
all the inherent uncertainties with timing and whatnot this far out
in the forecast). And if this does verify...this could be the first
real taste of fall for SE TX by next weekend. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the
best chances for terminals south of I-10, particularly for LBX
and GLS. This activity will generally develop over the coast and
gradually move westward into the coastal counties throughout the
day as a disturbance moves through. Winds will generally be from
the E-SE, strengthening up to around 10 knots in the afternoon.
Showers and storms should gradually diminish through late this
aftn/early evening. Outside any storms, VFR conditions can be
expected.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Generally light to moderate east winds will prevail through the
start of next week. This persistent easterly fetch will help to
increase seas over the weekend. Caution flags for elevated seas
may be warranted at times. Periods of unsettled weather will be
possible these next several days as deeper moisture moves in from
the Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher in and near the stronger
thunderstorms. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 74 97 69 / 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 74 94 73 / 10 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 90 80 / 40 40 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41
FXUS64 KHGX 291133
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
633 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
High pressure centered across the central/eastern CONUS will
continue to dominate the weather across most of Southeast TX today
and Saturday. This pattern will continue to bring easterly surface
flow, and hence, deeper Gulf moisture into the region. Therefore,
hot days are expected to continue during the short term period with
rain and storm chances, especially over the coastal zones. The main
weather maker will be a trough/weak easterly wave over the northern
Gulf of Mexico. This trough is progged to move westward into the
Upper TX coast and along the coastal counties today and should remain
over the region through Saturday evening; resulting in elevated rain
and storm chances. Most of this activity should remain along the
coast with the highest chances offshore. However, cannot rule out a
few showers and storms popping up further inland in the
afternoon/early evening given the combination of instability and
daytime heating.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Even with the mid/upper ridging holding in place over the region on
Sun/Mon, the persistent easterly fetch at the lower levels will con-
tinue to draw surges of deeper moisture (PWs from 1.6-1.9") into SW
and coastal portions of the FA from the Gulf. Combined with daytime
heating and embedded disturbances, this should translate to periods
of isolated to scattered activity from Sun through Tues. The better
POPs will be along the immediate coast to around the I-10 corridor.
As the mid/upper ridging begins weakening (as per the eastward trek
of the main longwave across the Central Plains), these rain chances
(30-40%) are expected to spread to cover much of the CWA on Wed. As
we head into Thur and Fri, even more changes are possible as global
models bring a strong cold front into and across the state. Will be
keeping elevated POPs in place for SE TX for this time frame (given
all the inherent uncertainties with timing and whatnot this far out
in the forecast). And if this does verify...this could be the first
real taste of fall for SE TX by next weekend. 41
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 627 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Periods of showers and thunderstorms are expected today with the
best chances for terminals south of I-10, particularly for LBX
and GLS. This activity will generally develop over the coast and
gradually move westward into the coastal counties throughout the
day as a disturbance moves through. Winds will generally be from
the E-SE, strengthening up to around 10 knots in the afternoon.
Showers and storms should gradually diminish through late this
aftn/early evening. Outside any storms, VFR conditions can be
expected.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 AM CDT Fri Sep 29 2023
Generally light to moderate east winds will prevail through the
start of next week. This persistent easterly fetch will help to
increase seas over the weekend. Caution flags for elevated seas
may be warranted at times. Periods of unsettled weather will be
possible these next several days as deeper moisture moves in from
the Gulf. Winds and seas could be higher in and near the stronger
thunderstorms. 41
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 74 97 69 / 0 10 10 0
Houston (IAH) 94 74 94 73 / 10 10 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 90 80 / 40 40 40 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...41
Anyone know how a potential government shutdown affects NWS/CPC/NOAA?
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2356
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
It stays online. I wish our govt would permanently shut down… LOL. Worthless Kabuki Theater circus clowns.
Team #NeverSummer
Bad day to get a dump truck of dirt. Steamy as all get out and hard to work through it.