2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

[Pas_Bon]

We have a lemon out in the far Atlantic. On April 24th.

No, this will not be a retired storm. No, it will not affect any landmass that I can foresee. Yes, this is immensely concerning. Have we had April/May areas of interest before? Yes. Have we had named storms in April/May before? Yes. Have they come along with such a heightened worry about the upcoming season? Not to my recollection.

The fact we have a system organized enough to warrant watching at this point is yet another red flag vis a vis the 2024 Atlantic hurricane season.

Godspeed to us all these next several months.

[jasons2k]

Another busy forecast is out:
https://penntoday.upenn.edu/news/2024-t ... prediction

I think it will be an extremely busy season.

FWIW these are my preliminary numbers on the Storm2k poll:

Prelim: 27/16/7 Ace: 223

[tireman4]

SSTs

[Cpv17]

Here is the latest run of the monthly CanSIPS model for July and August.

Steering for July:



August:



SST’s for July:



August:



Precipitation for July:



August:




After mid September we should be about done but getting there could be a bumpy ride.

I also wanted to point out how dry the EPAC appears to be. You know it’s going to be active in the Atlantic basin when the EPAC is that dry.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 yeah thats a concerning steering pattern for sure, big ridge sitting over the SE US, that definitely will allow for fewer recurves and more storms getting directed towards the gulf potentially, could be a wild ride for sure

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 yeah thats a concerning steering pattern for sure, big ridge sitting over the SE US, that definitely will allow for fewer recurves and more storms getting directed towards the gulf potentially, could be a wild ride for sure

I think July is going to be more active this year. It’s usually dead but August is really gonna be a month we’re gonna have to watch.

[Cpv17]

The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh..

[869MB]

The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh..

Yeah at this point it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find some blaring failure modes for this upcoming hurricane season. But of course, like I mentioned on Storm2K at the beginning of the year, there will be patterns and unforeseen conditions that will make storm formation unfavorable periodically during the season.

[Cpv17]

The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh..

Yeah at this point it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find some blaring failure modes for this upcoming hurricane season. But of course, like I mentioned on Storm2K at the beginning of the year, there will be patterns and unforeseen conditions that will make storm formation unfavorable periodically during the season.

I started noticing the seasonal models predicting a busy season last fall, but I wasn’t fully sold on that idea. I wanted to wait till the spring before I bought in, but now that it’s May, and they still have a hyperactive look, I’m sold.

[869MB]

The latest Euro forecast is predicting 250 ACE points. Sheesh..

Yeah at this point it’s becoming increasingly difficult to find some blaring failure modes for this upcoming hurricane season. But of course, like I mentioned on Storm2K at the beginning of the year, there will be patterns and unforeseen conditions that will make storm formation unfavorable periodically during the season.

I started noticing the seasonal models predicting a busy season last fall, but I wasn’t fully sold on that idea. I wanted to wait till the spring before I bought in, but now that it’s May, and they still have a hyperactive look, I’m sold.

Unfortunately that’s the way it’s looking as of this time. Everyone from the Islands, Central America, Mexico, to the United States are fair game this year. A predominantly recurving type pattern similar to 2023 appears to be highly unlikely like this. All hurricane preparations should be taken seriously this year and ideally completed by the beginning of the season.