2024 Hurricane Season Discussion
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4905
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Euro 12z 8-10 inches for houston with 20+ just off shore, our gulf low develops, meanders around and eventually but slowly comes ashore along the middle texas coast in a few days
-
brazoriatx
- Posts: 408
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
Lopsided little booger..everything is in LA
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4905
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
For right now, that might not be the case in a few days
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4905
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
we now have 90L for our gulf disturbance
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5215
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
Lemony: A series of unfortunate Atlantic disturbances
September 5, 2024 at 2:43 pm by Matt Lanza
Headlines
There are multiple areas to watch in the Atlantic, none of which is really a major concern in terms of development.
The main place to watch is the Gulf of Mexico, where heavy rain in Louisiana today from a frontal low is causing localized flooding.
The Caribbean wave may make a slight effort to develop next week in the western Gulf, but again, the primary concern will be rainfall in coastal Texas and Louisiana as that moisture lifts north and northeast.
A return to more “average” basin conditions may unfold late in the month.
Lemons all over the NHC outlook map today, but none of these areas is of serious concern at this time.
If you asked me in May to tell you what the NHC outlook map would look like on September 5th, I would have said that it would look something like the map above, though perhaps with more orange and red shaded regions and/or named storms. But, busy. If you asked me how many of those areas on that day would be of actual concern, I would have guessed about four. Instead, we got the map, but of the 5 outlined areas, maybe 0.5 is of actual concern — and not even really because it has a chance to develop.
The three Atlantic disturbances are honestly of no consequence. The one northwest of Bermuda (Invest 99L) is likely to track toward Atlantic Canada as a rain maker and gale heading toward the weekend. We’re looking at 20 to 60 mm of rainfall for Nova Scotia, PEI, and portions of eastern New Brunswick from this in addition to rough marine conditions.
Invest 99L will produce some rough marine conditions and locally heavy rain as it moves into Atlantic Canada this weekend.
The other two disturbances in the Atlantic are likely to stay out at sea and end up on the lower-end of the intensity scale as it stands right now.
Caribbean wave & Gulf of Mexico permalow: Mainly a rain concern
Flash flooding is ongoing in parts of Louisiana as heavy rain associated with a frontal low in the Gulf of Mexico expands north and east today.
Because this low tried to consolidate a bit this morning, the heaviest rain has occurred well offshore with close to 15 inches estimated in some cases.
Estimated rain totals of 1 to 3 inches on the coast of Louisiana and Texas have occurred in the last 24 hours, with heavier rain offshore and farther east around Lake Pontchartrain, where 2 to 7 Inches or more has fallen.
However, very heavy rain has occurred and is continuing in parts of eastern Louisiana and even southern Mississippi where upwards of 5 to 7 inches has occurred in spots, heaviest between I-10 and I-12 near Lake Pontchartrain and just east of New Orleans into Hancock County, Mississippi. This low will be sheared apart, with one piece heading eastward and another southward over the next 48 hours. The first Gulf Coast cold front of the season arrives in places like Houston and Lake Charles into Mississippi and Alabama this weekend. That will help clear the deck.
So then what? Well, this tropical wave that we’ve been discussing for days now finally makes it into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. It will sit and fester a bit, sort of merging together with the piece of the current system in the Gulf that will also fester down there. And you get another low pressure system. The Gulf is home to a permalow this month. Modeling goes two ways with this. The generally trustworthy European ensembles limit development risk of this area to maybe 40% for a depression and 30% or less for a tropical storm.
Probability of a tropical depression based on the European ensembles is around 40 percent or so (this tends to get overdone a bit) and odds of a tropical storm are 30 percent or less in the Gulf. (Weather Bell)
The storm track would probably be north and northeast toward Louisiana, and the ceiling on this would be low, probably below strong tropical storm intensity. However, more volatile models like the European AIFS (AI model) and ICON (German model) show this developing into a tropical storm, tracking toward Louisiana as well next Wednesday. In the former case, with no real development, we end up with a situation like we saw this week: Heavy rain at times near the coast midweek next week. But no organization. In the latter case with development, we get a coherent tropical storm and heavy rain offshore that crashes into Louisiana next week.
The bottom line: The primary concern next week will continue to be excessive rainfall. Secondary will be tropical development which does not appear to be a serious concern at this time.
GFS model forecast rainfall for next Wednesday and Thursday showing pockets of isolated heavy rain again on the Texas coast, but little to no tropical development.
The map above is the GFS model forecast for Wednesday and Thursday next week which shows isolated heavy rain on the Texas coast and near Louisiana, very similar to what we’ve seen this week. Even if no tropical development occurs, a localized flooding concern may emerge again next week on the Gulf Coast of Texas or Louisiana.
Beyond all this, there’s not much else doing out there that’s of concern. There are hints that the widespread sinking air in the background of the Atlantic basin may relax a bit in the final third of the month, but we also saw that possibly happening a few weeks ago and it didn’t. So while I would suspect things could turn more active toward October, I also want to be cognizant of the fact that this a forecast we’ve made before that hasn’t panned out. So for now, we’ll call for a gradual return to more normal activity in the Atlantic heading toward October, which is to say not as active as feared this season but more active than it is presently.
September 5, 2024 at 2:43 pm by Matt Lanza
Headlines
There are multiple areas to watch in the Atlantic, none of which is really a major concern in terms of development.
The main place to watch is the Gulf of Mexico, where heavy rain in Louisiana today from a frontal low is causing localized flooding.
The Caribbean wave may make a slight effort to develop next week in the western Gulf, but again, the primary concern will be rainfall in coastal Texas and Louisiana as that moisture lifts north and northeast.
A return to more “average” basin conditions may unfold late in the month.
Lemons all over the NHC outlook map today, but none of these areas is of serious concern at this time.
If you asked me in May to tell you what the NHC outlook map would look like on September 5th, I would have said that it would look something like the map above, though perhaps with more orange and red shaded regions and/or named storms. But, busy. If you asked me how many of those areas on that day would be of actual concern, I would have guessed about four. Instead, we got the map, but of the 5 outlined areas, maybe 0.5 is of actual concern — and not even really because it has a chance to develop.
The three Atlantic disturbances are honestly of no consequence. The one northwest of Bermuda (Invest 99L) is likely to track toward Atlantic Canada as a rain maker and gale heading toward the weekend. We’re looking at 20 to 60 mm of rainfall for Nova Scotia, PEI, and portions of eastern New Brunswick from this in addition to rough marine conditions.
Invest 99L will produce some rough marine conditions and locally heavy rain as it moves into Atlantic Canada this weekend.
The other two disturbances in the Atlantic are likely to stay out at sea and end up on the lower-end of the intensity scale as it stands right now.
Caribbean wave & Gulf of Mexico permalow: Mainly a rain concern
Flash flooding is ongoing in parts of Louisiana as heavy rain associated with a frontal low in the Gulf of Mexico expands north and east today.
Because this low tried to consolidate a bit this morning, the heaviest rain has occurred well offshore with close to 15 inches estimated in some cases.
Estimated rain totals of 1 to 3 inches on the coast of Louisiana and Texas have occurred in the last 24 hours, with heavier rain offshore and farther east around Lake Pontchartrain, where 2 to 7 Inches or more has fallen.
However, very heavy rain has occurred and is continuing in parts of eastern Louisiana and even southern Mississippi where upwards of 5 to 7 inches has occurred in spots, heaviest between I-10 and I-12 near Lake Pontchartrain and just east of New Orleans into Hancock County, Mississippi. This low will be sheared apart, with one piece heading eastward and another southward over the next 48 hours. The first Gulf Coast cold front of the season arrives in places like Houston and Lake Charles into Mississippi and Alabama this weekend. That will help clear the deck.
So then what? Well, this tropical wave that we’ve been discussing for days now finally makes it into the Bay of Campeche this weekend. It will sit and fester a bit, sort of merging together with the piece of the current system in the Gulf that will also fester down there. And you get another low pressure system. The Gulf is home to a permalow this month. Modeling goes two ways with this. The generally trustworthy European ensembles limit development risk of this area to maybe 40% for a depression and 30% or less for a tropical storm.
Probability of a tropical depression based on the European ensembles is around 40 percent or so (this tends to get overdone a bit) and odds of a tropical storm are 30 percent or less in the Gulf. (Weather Bell)
The storm track would probably be north and northeast toward Louisiana, and the ceiling on this would be low, probably below strong tropical storm intensity. However, more volatile models like the European AIFS (AI model) and ICON (German model) show this developing into a tropical storm, tracking toward Louisiana as well next Wednesday. In the former case, with no real development, we end up with a situation like we saw this week: Heavy rain at times near the coast midweek next week. But no organization. In the latter case with development, we get a coherent tropical storm and heavy rain offshore that crashes into Louisiana next week.
The bottom line: The primary concern next week will continue to be excessive rainfall. Secondary will be tropical development which does not appear to be a serious concern at this time.
GFS model forecast rainfall for next Wednesday and Thursday showing pockets of isolated heavy rain again on the Texas coast, but little to no tropical development.
The map above is the GFS model forecast for Wednesday and Thursday next week which shows isolated heavy rain on the Texas coast and near Louisiana, very similar to what we’ve seen this week. Even if no tropical development occurs, a localized flooding concern may emerge again next week on the Gulf Coast of Texas or Louisiana.
Beyond all this, there’s not much else doing out there that’s of concern. There are hints that the widespread sinking air in the background of the Atlantic basin may relax a bit in the final third of the month, but we also saw that possibly happening a few weeks ago and it didn’t. So while I would suspect things could turn more active toward October, I also want to be cognizant of the fact that this a forecast we’ve made before that hasn’t panned out. So for now, we’ll call for a gradual return to more normal activity in the Atlantic heading toward October, which is to say not as active as feared this season but more active than it is presently.
A flood of lemonade for Louisiana this weekend (perfect timing for the wedding and a drive into LA).
And we'll miss the mild weather in CLL this weekend. Low 60s Saturday and Sunday nights.
A weak, tropical system off the LATX coast mid to late week.
And we'll miss the mild weather in CLL this weekend. Low 60s Saturday and Sunday nights.
A weak, tropical system off the LATX coast mid to late week.
haha The Matt Lanza post was submitted while I was writing mine. It's a Citrus Bowl special of weak tropical systems.
Lemons are sour. Tropical development is riffed with uncertainty.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4905
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
00z GFS develops a TD that slowly drifts inland up towards the houston metro
- Attachments
-
- IMG_3355.png (424.32 KiB) Viewed 3307 times
So...
Modeling is actually coming into a little better agreement. I'm still skeptical with the setup but most are showing 90l dropping further s over the next few days and getting somewhat enhanced by the wave coming from near Belize and then moving n near the coast or further offshore of n mexico and s tx beginning early next week.
The good news is most have a mostly lopsided system with the worst of the weather staying offshore and nothing like Beryl. HAFS-A brings a strong tropical storm on a similar track as Beryl next Wednesday, but again it's not what I would consider a well organized system.
Let's see how the models evolve today. I'd guess that we might get some scheduled recon flights for Sunday or Monday if they continue to point to something spinning up. For now the NHC remains tepid with the TWO.
Modeling is actually coming into a little better agreement. I'm still skeptical with the setup but most are showing 90l dropping further s over the next few days and getting somewhat enhanced by the wave coming from near Belize and then moving n near the coast or further offshore of n mexico and s tx beginning early next week.
The good news is most have a mostly lopsided system with the worst of the weather staying offshore and nothing like Beryl. HAFS-A brings a strong tropical storm on a similar track as Beryl next Wednesday, but again it's not what I would consider a well organized system.
Let's see how the models evolve today. I'd guess that we might get some scheduled recon flights for Sunday or Monday if they continue to point to something spinning up. For now the NHC remains tepid with the TWO.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5215
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
ABNT20 KNHC 061153
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain
disorganized. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable
for significant development of this system while it meanders over
the northwestern Gulf and eventually merges with another approaching
frontal system later today or on Saturday. Although tropical
cyclone development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Satellite images indicate that a gale-force low pressure system
located several hundred miles east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are
increasingly taking on a non-tropical structure. The low is
forecast to move north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the
northeastern United States, reaching colder waters by this evening
and overnight, and its opportunity to acquire subtropical
characteristics appears to be decreasing. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located near the coast of Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move across Central
America and southeastern Mexico today and tonight, and some slow
development is possible over the weekend after the system emerges
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to
move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during
the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Berg
ABNT20 KNHC 061153
TWOAT
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Sep 6 2024
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
Northwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL90):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system and
weak frontal boundary over the northwestern Gulf of Mexico remain
disorganized. Upper-level winds are expected to remain unfavorable
for significant development of this system while it meanders over
the northwestern Gulf and eventually merges with another approaching
frontal system later today or on Saturday. Although tropical
cyclone development is unlikely, heavy rainfall is expected to
continue across portions of the northern Gulf Coast during the next
day or so. Additional information on this system can be found in
products issued by your local National Weather Service Forecast
Office and High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather
Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
Northwestern Atlantic (AL99):
Satellite images indicate that a gale-force low pressure system
located several hundred miles east of the U.S. Mid-Atlantic coast
is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that are
increasingly taking on a non-tropical structure. The low is
forecast to move north-northeastward at 15 to 20 mph offshore the
northeastern United States, reaching colder waters by this evening
and overnight, and its opportunity to acquire subtropical
characteristics appears to be decreasing. Additional information
on this system, including gale warnings, can be found in High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Southwestern Gulf of Mexico:
A tropical wave located near the coast of Belize and the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico continues to produce disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. The wave is forecast to move across Central
America and southeastern Mexico today and tonight, and some slow
development is possible over the weekend after the system emerges
over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An elongated trough of low pressure over the eastern tropical
Atlantic is producing minimal shower and thunderstorm activity.
Development, if any, should be slow to occur while the disturbance
meanders through the early part of next week and then begins to
move west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic during
the middle to latter part of next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...10 percent.
&&
High Seas Forecasts are issued by the National Weather Service
under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and online
at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.php
$$
Forecaster Berg
12z models are a mess with 90l essentially being absorbed by the front coming down and then trying to reorganize as the energy from the wave over Belize/YP gets into the WGOM. While the TWO essentially declares 90l dead the focus from the NHC is on the other wave which has increased to 20/40.
Still looks to be lopsided and unorganized overall if it were to threaten the Texas coast. As always things can change....
Still looks to be lopsided and unorganized overall if it were to threaten the Texas coast. As always things can change....
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4905
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Looks to be a big big rainmaker if anything, and even a sloppy sheared system can bring significant impacts especially in the flooding rains department
Just as long as it doesn't get powerful enough to huff and puff and blow my house down.
Flooding can be really nasty. Like Harvey, Imelda, or Allison.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Sep 06, 2024 1:25 pm Looks to be a big big rainmaker if anything, and even a sloppy sheared system can bring significant impacts especially in the flooding rains department
Looks like Hurricane Nicholas from 2021 all over again as of right now.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4905
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Im buying more of a euro track, im thinking models are over doing intensity, and are too far to the east, overall environment is not conducive for a hurricane, too much wind shear in the northern gulf will prevent anything more then a moderate TS, i have landfall between corpus and rockport with a slow movement NNE
-
biggerbyte
- Posts: 1239
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
Man, someone is way off. Heinz 57 is calling a TS into Tx/La.
-
brazoriatx
- Posts: 408
- Joined: Tue Nov 08, 2011 12:09 pm
- Contact:
After his big bust on beryl I tend to scroll past what he says now lol..feels good
So not only has the named storm number forecast been a bust this season, but the ACE numbers forecast has also been a bust. This is not me poo-pooing the forecasts. Everything was in place. What did they/we not foresee? All the dry air and shear that has been so prevalent. Had this been 2005 or 2020, Beryl and Francine would’ve been Cat 4/5 hurricanes by now.
Thank God for shear and dry air.
Thank God for shear and dry air.