2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2024 5:11 pm Big *** tornadoes with this thing. So crazy because you need shear for supercells, and you need no shear for hurricanes. Getting the worst of both.
That's the rotation of cells interacting with the friction of the land, coupled with an active jet.. It's another angular momentum thing.

No surprise especially with a former CAT 5 fighting the SJT and the NE side (dirty) raking the FL mainland.
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tireman4
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I think what surprised me was the amount and the strength of the tornadoes. We expect quick spin ups, EF 0-1, but EF 2-3..that surprised me
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Hurricane Milton looks to be one of the biggest tornado events from a hurricane.
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The Tropicana Field roof has been ripped apart.

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Tropicana Field's roof blown off during Hurricane Milton
https://www.wesh.com/article/tropicana- ... n/62562231
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tireman4 wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:45 pm I think what surprised me was the amount and the strength of the tornadoes. We expect quick spin ups, EF 0-1, but EF 2-3..that surprised me

I think 1 or 2 of them may get EF-4 ratings
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tireman4
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Hurricane force wind reports from the NHC updates:

Marineland: 1-min: 83 mph, gust: 92 mph
Egmont Channel: 1-min 86 mph, gust: 105 mph
Skyway Fishing Pier: 1-min: 73 mph (very close to cat 1), gust: 102 mph
Venice: 1-min: 92 mph, gust: 107 mph
Middle Tampa Bay: 1-min: 74 mph, gust: 98 mph
Bartow: gust: 94 mph, included this because going by other records had a fair chance of experiencing hurricane force winds.

Marineland is a strange record. Milton's MSW as it exited the east coast was around 75 kts (85 mph) so to record this strength of wind you would expect the station is in a very exposed coastal location and caught the peak wind of the hurricane. I looked where Marineland is and it is distant from the storm track and would not have experienced core winds. I wonder if this wind was from a tornado or microburst in one of the outer bands.

From a Pro Met at S2K
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tireman4
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We now have Ivest 94L.

AL, 94, 2024101012, , BEST, 0, 140N, 189W, 25, 1008, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 200, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 032, SPAWNINVEST, al752024 to al942024,


Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave that has now emerged off of the west coast of Africa
continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions appear marginal for limited development of
this system while it moves westward or west-northwestward across the
eastern tropical Atlantic and the Cabo Verde Islands on Friday. By
Saturday, upper-level winds are forecast to become less favorable,
and further development is unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, localized areas of heavy rain are possible across
portions of the Cabo Verde Islands late Thursday through Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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tireman4
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000
WTNT34 KNHC 101152
TCPAT4

BULLETIN
Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 21A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
800 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...CENTER OF MILTON PULLING AWAY FROM THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA...
...STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HEAVY RAINFALL STILL OCCURRING NEAR THE
SPACE COAST...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 79.5W
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 225 MI...365 KM NW OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 60 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...980 MB...28.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Warnings south of Sebastian Inlet and north of the
Flagler/Volusia County Line have been changed to Tropical Storm
Warnings.

The Storm Surge Warning along the Florida west coast has been
discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued south of the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the
St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* Florida east coast from Sebastian Inlet northward to the
Flagler/Volusia County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Florida east coast south of Sebastian Inlet to the Palm
Beach/Martin County Line
* Lake Okeechobee
* North of the Flagler/Volusia County Line to Edisto Beach South
Carolina
* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the
Abacos, and Bimini

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline in
the indicated locations. For a depiction of areas at risk, please
see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic,
available at hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation.
Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions
to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 AM EDT (1200 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located
near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 79.5 West. Milton is moving
toward the east-northeast near 18 mph (30 km/h), and this general
motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn toward the
east tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Milton will
continue to move away from Florida and pass to the north of the
Bahamas today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 85 mph (140 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual weakening is expected, but Milton is forecast to
become a powerful extratropical low tonight.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from
the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 205
miles (335 km). A sustained wind of 58 mph (93 km/h) and a gust to
76 mph (122 km/h) was recently reported at a Weatherstem station in
Marineland. A sustained wind of 46 mph (74 km/h) and a gust to 67
mph (108 km/h) was recently reported at the Cocoa-Patrick Air Force
Base.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb (28.94 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC
and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft
St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm
Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Additional rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches are expected
across portions of the east-central to northeast Florida coast
through this morning. This rainfall will continue to bring the risk
of considerable flash and urban flooding, along with moderate to
major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Total Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions, especially in gusts, are occurring
within the hurricane warning area in Florida. Tropical storm
conditions are occurring in the tropical storm warning areas in
Florida, Georgia, South Carolina, and the Bahamas.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to
affect portions of the southeast U.S. and the Bahamas during the
next couple of days. These swells could cause life-threatening
surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your
local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1100 AM EDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg/Hagen
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tireman4
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000
WTNT44 KNHC 100842
TCDAT4

Hurricane Milton Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
500 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

Milton moved quickly across central Florida overnight, producing
significant flooding and damaging winds near its path. The center
of the hurricane is now exiting the state near Cape Canaveral, and
the worst conditions have shifted to east-central and northeastern
Florida. The initial intensity is set to 75 kt based on Doppler
radar velocity data and surface observations, with the strongest
winds likely occurring just offshore of east-central Florida.

Milton is expected to remain a hurricane a little longer, but the
models are in good agreement that it will develop frontal
characteristics by tonight, and therefore, the official forecast
shows the system becoming extratropical in 24 hours. The
extratropical low is expected to gradually weaken and dissipate in
about 4 days. The NHC intensity forecast is in best agreement with
the GFS model, which typically performs better than the standard
hurricane models for transitioning systems.

The hurricane is moving quickly northeastward between a trough just
to its west and a ridge near the Greater Antilles. A turn to the
east is expected to occur soon as the flow becomes more zonal,
taking the system to the north of the Bahamas later today and south
of Bermuda on Saturday. The NHC track forecast is a little faster
than the previous one to be in better agreement with the latest
models.

Key Messages:

1. There is a danger of life-threatening storm surge along the
coast from east-central Florida northward to southern Georgia,
where a Storm Surge Warning remains in effect.

2. Damaging hurricane-force winds, especially in gusts, will
continue for a few more hours in east-central and northeastern
Florida. Residents are urged to remain in an interior room and away
from windows.

3. Heavy rainfall across the central to northern Florida Peninsula
through this morning continues to bring the risk of considerable
flash and urban flooding along with moderate to major river
flooding, especially in areas where coastal and inland flooding
combine to increase the overall flood threat.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 10/0900Z 28.5N 80.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 10/1800Z 29.3N 78.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 11/0600Z 29.6N 74.2W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 11/1800Z 29.6N 70.3W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 12/0600Z 29.7N 67.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
60H 12/1800Z 29.9N 63.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 13/0600Z 30.6N 60.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 14/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi
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tireman4
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This is for educational purposes only..
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What a storm. My relatives in the bay area are OK.

I am so thankful this did not make landfall north of Tampa Bay. That north jog yesterday morning made me nervous for awhile. Better to evacuate and be safe than to be caught in a surprise at the last minute. I have no regrets warning folks on Storm2k about a possible devastating surge there. The landfall point along southern Longboat Key was well within my ‘discomfort zone.’ Hats off to the NHC. Their accuracy now compared to a few decades ago is astounding. They do an amazing job.

You could see the storm decouple on radar shortly after landfall. This was easy by comparing the circulation centers (velocity setting) from the Tampa and Melbourne radar sites. They were at different locations on radar confirming the MLC was racing off ahead of the LLC. Fascinating storm to watch. The tornado outbreak will be studied for a long time.

Saw a livestream from IRB. No surge damage from Milton. Some additional wind damage and the residents describe the wind as the most intense of any storm. Some places on the Pinellas islands have power. Bridges are already back open. The Pinellas beach towns are resuming cleanup efforts quickly.

Looks like Venice down to Charlotte Harbor got nailed by the surge. Let’s not forget those folks just because it wasn’t Tampa Bay.

Hope everyone stays safe.
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tireman4
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BULLETIN
Post-Tropical Cyclone Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 22A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024
200 PM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

...MILTON BECOMES A HURRICANE-FORCE EXTRATROPICAL LOW...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AND STORM SURGE STILL OCCURRING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. COAST...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 77.5W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM ENE OF CAPE CANAVERAL FLORIDA
ABOUT 200 MI...325 KM N OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...983 MB...29.03 INCHES
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tireman4
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Headlines
Matt Lanza
The Eyewall
Hurricane Milton is now a non-tropical storm as it moves out to sea.
A very historic tornado outbreak, flash flooding, and storm surge were all elements of Milton that were notable in Florida.
In the deep Atlantic, Hurricane Leslie is headed out to sea.
There are hints of additional development chances late next week in the western Caribbean, but it is way, way too soon to speculate on whether that happens for real or where it would go if it did.
Milton's mess
Hurricane Milton is moving farther away from Florida this afternoon. We say good riddance. There will be a number of things to discuss in the wake of Milton, from its incredible intensity ramp up to its precipitous weakening and how that may have played a role in surge, track, winds, flooding, and the daytime tornado outbreak in eastern Florida. We'll place a bookmark here and come back to it at some point in the offseason I think.


Milton is now transitioning from a tropical system to a non-tropical system as it moves out to sea.
The elements of Milton that were most noteworthy in my opinion:

The tornado outbreak in eastern Florida. Over 120 tornado warnings were issued in Florida yesterday. You can read about historic Florida Peninsula outbreaks here through 1993. There was another major tornado outbreak in Florida in February 1998. Tornadoes are not uncommon in Florida, but outbreaks of this magnitude are. So far there have been 45 tornado reports in Florida from yesterday. Ultimately, this will be under that value in terms of number of tornadoes probably. But no doubt Milton produced a truly historic tornado outbreak.

Each red dot signifies a tornado report from yesterday. The hardest hit area was from Palm City through Fort Pierce into Vero Beach.
The huge footprint of heavy, flooding rainfall. We had a wide area of rain totals that exceeded 10 inches with a 100 to 500 year return period between Tampa and Daytona Beach. The flash flooding is likely to have caused significant damage across the region.

Total rainfall in excess of a foot covered a wide area of the I-4 corridor. Heavy rain also occurred to the north into Jacksonville.
Then, obviously, the storm surge. How bad was it between Longboat Key, Sarasota, Siesta Key, and Venice? That's only just now becoming clearer. It's been tough to find hard station data but I have seen a report of 7 foot water levels near Venice, which would equate to at least 6 to 7 feet of surge. One would assume that water levels were somewhat higher to the north of there near Siesta Key and Sarasota, possibly up to 10 feet or so.
Between Milton and Helene, we've had a rough few weeks in the Southeast. We hope for the best for those impacted and for the recovery process to be as painless as possible.

What's next?
In the deep Atlantic we have Hurricane Leslie that is on its last legs as it motors out to sea.

But there are hints on the models at least of a new potential disturbance in the Caribbean. This is still about a week or more out. But it seems that if something were to develop in the next 2 weeks, this is where it would happen.


The potential for new development in the western Caribbean is not zero late next week. But it's too soon to speculate on what that looks like or where it goes.
While this will certainly get a lot of folks riled up, it's important to note that with this being a week or more out, there is no guarantee anything will develop, nor is there any knowledge of where anything will go if it does develop at this point. All we can do right now is speculate that something could possibly develop in the western Caribbean in a week to 10 days. That's a long time out, so don't start stressing right now.
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DoctorMu
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tireman4 wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:45 pm I think what surprised me was the amount and the strength of the tornadoes. We expect quick spin ups, EF 0-1, but EF 2-3..that surprised me
Cat 5s build up a lot of angular momentum. Hi Ang Mo + friction = spin. Yeah, it was really amazing to see spinup wedge tornadoes
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Special outlook issued to update discussion of the disturbance near
the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94).

Near the Cabo Verde Islands (AL94):
Updated: Very recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that
winds to tropical storm force are occurring over portions of the
Cabo Verde Islands in association with an area of low pressure
centered near the southwestern portion of the archipelago.
However, the satellite data showed that the circulation is
elongated, and the associated shower and thunderstorm activity
remains disorganized. Some additional development is possible, and
a short-lived tropical storm could form while the system moves
westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the Cabo Verde
Islands and eastern tropical Atlantic today. On Saturday,
environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive, and
further development appears unlikely after that time. Regardless of
development, winds to tropical storm force and areas of heavy rain
are likely to continue over portions of the Cabo Verde Islands
through tonight. For additional information on this system,
including gale warnings, please see High Seas Forecasts issued by
Meteo France.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
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DoctorMu wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2024 4:05 pm
tireman4 wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:45 pm I think what surprised me was the amount and the strength of the tornadoes. We expect quick spin ups, EF 0-1, but EF 2-3..that surprised me
Cat 5s build up a lot of angular momentum. Hi Ang Mo + friction = spin. Yeah, it was really amazing to see spinup wedge tornadoes
Dry air incursion really helped those tornadoes to spawn
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Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2024 12:22 am
tireman4 wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:45 pm I think what surprised me was the amount and the strength of the tornadoes. We expect quick spin ups, EF 0-1, but EF 2-3..that surprised me

I think 1 or 2 of them may get EF-4 ratings
Hurricanes have produced monster tornadoes. Hurricane Carla (1961) and Hilda (1964) come to mind.

https://www.weather.gov/lch/1961Carla
https://www.weather.gov/lch/1964Hilda
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Ptarmigan wrote: Fri Oct 11, 2024 10:06 pm
Pas_Bon wrote: Thu Oct 10, 2024 12:22 am
tireman4 wrote: Wed Oct 09, 2024 7:45 pm I think what surprised me was the amount and the strength of the tornadoes. We expect quick spin ups, EF 0-1, but EF 2-3..that surprised me

I think 1 or 2 of them may get EF-4 ratings
Hurricanes have produced monster tornadoes. Hurricane Carla (1961) and Hilda (1964) come to mind.


https://www.weather.gov/lch/1961Carla
https://www.weather.gov/lch/1964Hilda
Thanks for the links. I always appreciate the data/info you provide us.
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There is Invest 94L. Here is the EURO ensembles.

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Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Mon Oct 14 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
A well-defined area of low pressure located several hundred miles
west of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing some disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. This system is currently embedded in a
dry environment, and development is unlikely over the next couple of
days. However, this system is forecast to move generally westward
toward warmer waters, and environmental conditions could become more
favorable for gradual development by the middle to latter part of
this week. A tropical depression could form as the system begins
moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves near the Leeward
Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Hagen
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