2024 Hurricane Season Discussion

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 6:19 pm It appears the system maybe starting to show signs of rapid or at least a much faster pace of intensification, seeing some really vigorous convection firing over the center right now, its really looking healthy
Have a hard time believing it’s not named yet. It looks really good and has been able to maintain convection for a while.
Cpv17
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This is for the wave behind TD2:

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear generally conducive
for additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
biggerbyte
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I'm making no predictions. No write offs. Just as with Ike, it is prudent for all Gulf states to keep a close eye on the forecast. As of today, this system looks to weaken enough to send it in to Mexico. Every day brings different insight. I think I mentioned earlier that Sunday will be very telling.

I'll say this. If this does not weaken and enters the central Gulf, we in Texas could be in for a really big problem. I know I don't want it. I have cancer, and being without power for a month would be very dangerous.
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tireman4
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biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:36 pm I'm making no predictions. No write offs. Just as with Ike, it is prudent for all Gulf states to keep a close eye on the forecast. As of today, this system looks to weaken enough to send it in to Mexico. Every day brings different insight. I think I mentioned earlier that Sunday will be very telling.

I'll say this. If this does not weaken and enters the central Gulf, we in Texas could be in for a really big problem. I know I don't want it. I have cancer, and being without power for a month would be very dangerous.
I am sorry Biggerbyte. I do hope you are in remission or close. On another note, we just bought a Generac 26 kw. The kicker, it will not be installed until September 26th. The wait list is that long.
biggerbyte
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tireman4 wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:50 pm
biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:36 pm I'm making no predictions. No write offs. Just as with Ike, it is prudent for all Gulf states to keep a close eye on the forecast. As of today, this system looks to weaken enough to send it in to Mexico. Every day brings different insight. I think I mentioned earlier that Sunday will be very telling.

I'll say this. If this does not weaken and enters the central Gulf, we in Texas could be in for a really big problem. I know I don't want it. I have cancer, and being without power for a month would be very dangerous.
I am sorry Biggerbyte. I do hope you are in remission or close. On another note, we just bought a Generac 26 kw. The kicker, it will not be installed until September 26th. The wait list is that long.
Oh, that's nice. I want one so bad.

Congratulations, and thank you for the well wishes.
Cpv17
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biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:36 pm I'm making no predictions. No write offs. Just as with Ike, it is prudent for all Gulf states to keep a close eye on the forecast. As of today, this system looks to weaken enough to send it in to Mexico. Every day brings different insight. I think I mentioned earlier that Sunday will be very telling.

I'll say this. If this does not weaken and enters the central Gulf, we in Texas could be in for a really big problem. I know I don't want it. I have cancer, and being without power for a month would be very dangerous.
I hope everything works out for you. I’m sorry to hear about that.
Cpv17
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I guess the MLC and LLC aren’t aligned. Looks can be very deceiving cuz it looks great on IR.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 not quite yet, but should be by tommorow, then it should take off
biggerbyte
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Cpv17 wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 8:47 pm
biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:36 pm I'm making no predictions. No write offs. Just as with Ike, it is prudent for all Gulf states to keep a close eye on the forecast. As of today, this system looks to weaken enough to send it in to Mexico. Every day brings different insight. I think I mentioned earlier that Sunday will be very telling.

I'll say this. If this does not weaken and enters the central Gulf, we in Texas could be in for a really big problem. I know I don't want it. I have cancer, and being without power for a month would be very dangerous.
I hope everything works out for you. I’m sorry to hear about that.
Thank you..
Scott747
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biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:36 pm I'm making no predictions. No write offs. Just as with Ike, it is prudent for all Gulf states to keep a close eye on the forecast. As of today, this system looks to weaken enough to send it in to Mexico. Every day brings different insight. I think I mentioned earlier that Sunday will be very telling.

I'll say this. If this does not weaken and enters the central Gulf, we in Texas could be in for a really big problem. I know I don't want it. I have cancer, and being without power for a month would be very dangerous.
We've obviously butted heads over the years... ;)

Still wish nothing but the best for you.

Scott
Scott747
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As it has been discussed the operational ICON has quite frankly become one of the more reliable models to follow.

0z run is intriguing, not with Beryl so much but with the following system....
biggerbyte
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We now have Tropical Storm Beryl.. Tonight's thinking is still into mexico, but caution for Texas is being thrown around.
Pas_Bon
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When might INVEST 96L be declared for the wave behind Beryl?

An African train at this early juncture is downright mortifying.
biggerbyte
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Scott747 wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 10:55 pm
biggerbyte wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 7:36 pm I'm making no predictions. No write offs. Just as with Ike, it is prudent for all Gulf states to keep a close eye on the forecast. As of today, this system looks to weaken enough to send it in to Mexico. Every day brings different insight. I think I mentioned earlier that Sunday will be very telling.

I'll say this. If this does not weaken and enters the central Gulf, we in Texas could be in for a really big problem. I know I don't want it. I have cancer, and being without power for a month would be very dangerous.
We've obviously butted heads over the years... ;)

Still wish nothing but the best for you.

Scott
Thank you, Scott. How ironic that the cancer that took Dan from us would attack me all of these years later.

RIP.. Dan Meador.
Cpv17
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Pas_Bon wrote: Fri Jun 28, 2024 11:54 pm When might INVEST 96L be declared for the wave behind Beryl?

An African train at this early juncture is downright mortifying.
Has to be coming soon. Probably later today at this rate.

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave located several hundred miles south-southwest of the
Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers and
thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.
Stratton20
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Looks like Beryl is beginning the process of developing an inner core, if that keeps up we could have a hurricane by tommorow, also big shift north by the hurricane models
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Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 1:45 am Looks like Beryl is beginning the process of developing an inner core, if that keeps up we could have a hurricane by tommorow, also big shift north by the hurricane models

Crazy how quickly she blew up. This and the MDR train are worrisome since we are still in JUNE. Yikes.
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tireman4
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Latest on Beryl
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Cpv17
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Beryl now has winds of 65mph and is forecasted to be a major as it hits the Windward Islands.
Cpv17
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Future 96L behind Beryl:

2. Eastern Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing an area of disorganized showers
and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for
additional development of this system, and a tropical depression
could form by the middle of next week while it moves generally
westward at 15 to 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical
Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

I would imagine this gets tagged soon.
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