October 2023
Not much to talk about in the weather world here in Texas for the next couple weeks. Pretty boring weather pattern coming up. At least it’s not 100+° anymore though.
If its boring like it was boring this past weekend, I'll take boring for the rest of the year, please
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4300
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
snowman65 not going to happen
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4300
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Boring weather is definitely no bueno in my world, but i suspect we wont be saying that this winter lol
The mesos are following the Euro southern solution for Tuesday night. CLL *could* see a tad of rain. Largel I-10 and south.
Overall, pretty weaksauce effort by EPAC moisture riding on the SJT.
Overall, pretty weaksauce effort by EPAC moisture riding on the SJT.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4537
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 101140
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies have been spreading across the area
overnight, and expect this trend to continue for much of the short
term period. Deepening moisture levels (precipitable water values
rising to at or above two inches near/along the coast) can be
expected as the remnants of eastern Pacific Hurricane Lidia combine
with a western Gulf of Mexico surface low to bring rain back into
our area. Expect increasing rain chances as the day progresses today
with the best/highest chances tonight through tomorrow morning
concentrating near/along the coast but especially offshore. A
decrease in coverage can be expected as the day progresses on
Wednesday, and look for this trend to continue into Wednesday night
as everything eventually moves to the east and out of our area. Much
needed rainfall totals for this event are anticipated to range from
1/4 inch or less well inland north (Brazos Valley to Piney Woods
areas) to maybe around or above an inch near the coast (higher
amounts will definitely be found offshore). The increase in clouds
and rains will help to keep today`s high temperatures in an upper
70s to low 80s range and Wednesday high temperatures in a mid to
upper 70s range. Lows should range from the mid to upper 60s tonight
and in the low to mid 60s on Wednesday night.
42
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
A slight chance of rain will remain possible throughout the day
on Thursday as the bulk of the moisture associated to the surface
low is pulled eastward into the Central Gulf of Mexico. There
might be an uptick in rain activity (mainly for areas south of
I-10) Thursday night into Friday morning as moisture converges
over Southeast Texas in response to an approaching cold front.
The cold front will push through the local area sometime Friday
morning into early Friday afternoon, and once it does, our rain
chances will end. A cool dry airmass will follow quickly behind
the frontal passage and remain in place through the weekend and
possibly into early next week.
As for temperatures on Thursday and Friday, the warm air
advection ahead of the cold front will increase temperatures and
likely result in highs between the mid to upper 80s. Some isolated
spots may even reach 90 degrees on Friday, but this will depend on
the timing of the front. Cold air advection and high pressure
building over Southeast Texas after the frontal passage will
result in cooler temperatures and sunny skies this weekend through
early next week. Expect highs to be in the mid 70s to low 80s and
the lows to be in the 50s inland and the 60s along the coasts each
day and night.
Cotto (24)
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
Mainly high level clouds (some spotty mid level) are found across SE
TX early this morning. Lowering ceilings and areas of -RA/-SHRA can
be expected beginning later this morning or early this afternoon near
the coast, and this should be spreading further inland in the afternoon
and especially in the evening thru overnight hours. Overnight and on
into Wednesday morning, mostly MVFR ceilings are anticipated with SHRA
across the area. Expect decreasing SHRA coverage (aminly W to E) as
the day progresses on Wednesday.
Generally seeing SE to S winds 5 to 10 knots this morning shifting to
the E and NE near the coast in the afternoon and evening.
42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
Light onshore flow and low seas expected today but winds will
increase and turn E and seas will build this evening into
Wednesday as a coastal low develops over the Western Gulf of
Mexico. Caution flags and Advisories will likely be required late
tonight into Wednesday. We will need to keep an eye on the water
levels over the bays on Wednesday morning into Thursday as
guidance is currently suggesting levels to be just above 3 feet
MLLW. The low is expected to gradually move to our east Wednesday
night into Thursday and winds will gradually relax and seas will
decrease as it does so. A cold front is progged to move into the
coastal waters Friday. Moderate to strong N-NE winds can be
expected in the wake of the front and will likely result in the
issuance of Caution flags and Advisories for the upcoming
weekend.
As for rain chances, expected periods of showers and storms today
and likely to continue through the passage of the front on
Friday. The heaviest period is still expected to be today into
Wednesday.
Cotto (24)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 66 76 62 / 20 40 30 10
Houston (IAH) 81 67 73 63 / 20 60 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 70 76 70 / 40 90 70 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 101140
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
Mostly cloudy to cloudy skies have been spreading across the area
overnight, and expect this trend to continue for much of the short
term period. Deepening moisture levels (precipitable water values
rising to at or above two inches near/along the coast) can be
expected as the remnants of eastern Pacific Hurricane Lidia combine
with a western Gulf of Mexico surface low to bring rain back into
our area. Expect increasing rain chances as the day progresses today
with the best/highest chances tonight through tomorrow morning
concentrating near/along the coast but especially offshore. A
decrease in coverage can be expected as the day progresses on
Wednesday, and look for this trend to continue into Wednesday night
as everything eventually moves to the east and out of our area. Much
needed rainfall totals for this event are anticipated to range from
1/4 inch or less well inland north (Brazos Valley to Piney Woods
areas) to maybe around or above an inch near the coast (higher
amounts will definitely be found offshore). The increase in clouds
and rains will help to keep today`s high temperatures in an upper
70s to low 80s range and Wednesday high temperatures in a mid to
upper 70s range. Lows should range from the mid to upper 60s tonight
and in the low to mid 60s on Wednesday night.
42
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
A slight chance of rain will remain possible throughout the day
on Thursday as the bulk of the moisture associated to the surface
low is pulled eastward into the Central Gulf of Mexico. There
might be an uptick in rain activity (mainly for areas south of
I-10) Thursday night into Friday morning as moisture converges
over Southeast Texas in response to an approaching cold front.
The cold front will push through the local area sometime Friday
morning into early Friday afternoon, and once it does, our rain
chances will end. A cool dry airmass will follow quickly behind
the frontal passage and remain in place through the weekend and
possibly into early next week.
As for temperatures on Thursday and Friday, the warm air
advection ahead of the cold front will increase temperatures and
likely result in highs between the mid to upper 80s. Some isolated
spots may even reach 90 degrees on Friday, but this will depend on
the timing of the front. Cold air advection and high pressure
building over Southeast Texas after the frontal passage will
result in cooler temperatures and sunny skies this weekend through
early next week. Expect highs to be in the mid 70s to low 80s and
the lows to be in the 50s inland and the 60s along the coasts each
day and night.
Cotto (24)
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 640 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
Mainly high level clouds (some spotty mid level) are found across SE
TX early this morning. Lowering ceilings and areas of -RA/-SHRA can
be expected beginning later this morning or early this afternoon near
the coast, and this should be spreading further inland in the afternoon
and especially in the evening thru overnight hours. Overnight and on
into Wednesday morning, mostly MVFR ceilings are anticipated with SHRA
across the area. Expect decreasing SHRA coverage (aminly W to E) as
the day progresses on Wednesday.
Generally seeing SE to S winds 5 to 10 knots this morning shifting to
the E and NE near the coast in the afternoon and evening.
42
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 243 AM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
Light onshore flow and low seas expected today but winds will
increase and turn E and seas will build this evening into
Wednesday as a coastal low develops over the Western Gulf of
Mexico. Caution flags and Advisories will likely be required late
tonight into Wednesday. We will need to keep an eye on the water
levels over the bays on Wednesday morning into Thursday as
guidance is currently suggesting levels to be just above 3 feet
MLLW. The low is expected to gradually move to our east Wednesday
night into Thursday and winds will gradually relax and seas will
decrease as it does so. A cold front is progged to move into the
coastal waters Friday. Moderate to strong N-NE winds can be
expected in the wake of the front and will likely result in the
issuance of Caution flags and Advisories for the upcoming
weekend.
As for rain chances, expected periods of showers and storms today
and likely to continue through the passage of the front on
Friday. The heaviest period is still expected to be today into
Wednesday.
Cotto (24)
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 66 76 62 / 20 40 30 10
Houston (IAH) 81 67 73 63 / 20 60 50 20
Galveston (GLS) 81 70 76 70 / 40 90 70 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Today’s CPC forecast looks a bit more encouraging!
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4300
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 yep! I keep saying with that + PNA firmly intrenched over california and the western us , that should allow for troughs to dive down from the north and round the base of that ridge, i do see a couple of fronts which could could help to bring rain chances back again, definitely like that CPC outlook
Yeah, the firehose is just going to miss us.tireman4 wrote: ↑Tue Oct 10, 2023 9:35 am From the Eyewall...
https://theeyewall.com/october-10-2023- ... this-week/
https://youtu.be/IVP9WUGdgPg?si=a1XG7BVA6_oHZvOr
The radar is filling up south of I-10 as expected. Hope you all are getting wet. We had a very light shower early this afternoon that lasted maybe 5 min.
Temperature-wise, I'll sign on now on CMC's solution for next week. 
False Fall ends today and summer briefly returns Friday.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4537
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 111121
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
A mid/upper level trough axis is currently pushing across the
Southern Plains this morning, with widespread, light showers ongoing
across SE Texas. Much of this activity is being aided/supplemented
by a mid level shortwave trough/low over Mexico, providing PWs in
excess of 2" while invigorating PVA aloft. Expected numerous showers
to continue throughout the morning/early afternoon hours as the
surface low/trough associated with this system tracks NE across the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient should also
tighten with this coastal low, bringing breezy conditions along the
coastline. 850mb temperatures should be around 12-15C this
afternoon. Factor the cloud cover/rainfall, and highs for today
should range from the 70s to lower 80s.
The aforementioned surface low should push into the
North/Northeastern Gulf this afternoon/evening. Rain chances and
cloud cover should decrease across the area as drier air filters in
aloft. This should bring cooler conditions overnight, with lows
progged in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Thursday should be relatively
benign weather-wise, with PWs under 1" greatly limiting rain chances
for inland locations. Clearing skies and 850mb temperatures rising
to 16-18C should bring warmer conditions with highs progged to be in
the 80s. A deepening mid/upper level low over the Great
Basin/Rockies should promote surface cyclogenesis across the Plains.
This should strengthen WAA and moisture advection across the region,
with lows for Thursday night ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
Friday will be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures ranging
from the upper 80s to lower 90s (record highs for Friday the 13th are
in the climate section below). The next cold front (rain chances slim
to none) will move through the area late Friday through Friday night
with breezy north winds developing in its wake (Friday night`s low will
range from the mid to upper 50s far north to the low to mid 60s closer
to the coast). Surface high pressure will then ridge across the area
from the north while a northwest flow develop aloft, and this will allow
for cool night and mild days to set up for several days from the weekend
(especially on Sunday) on into the first half of next week (lows in
the 50s/60s with maybe some far northern locations in the 40s...and
highs in the 70s/80s). This period will be dry too. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
MVFR CIGS and numerous showers are expected across SE Texas this
morning. Rain chances should decrease heading into the afternoon,
with CIGS lifting back to VFR levels during the late afternoon
hours (except for KLBX/KGLS). Additional MVFR/IFR CIGS/decks may
develop late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
The developing coastal low pressure system across the southwestern
Gulf will be moving to the NNE and NE today and will bring increasing
winds and seas to the area (Small Craft Advisories will be going
into effect this morning and will continue into at least early this
evening). Expect the widespread rain areas early this morning to taper
off beginning this evening (look for the winds and seas to decrease
too). An onshore flow returns to the area in a Thursday-Friday time
period, and then the next cold front moves through the area Friday
evening/night. Moderate to occasionally strong north winds and elevated
seas will develop behind this front early Saturday (Small Craft Advisories
will be needed), followed by lowering north winds and decreasing seas
Saturday night through Sunday night. 42
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
Here are the record high temperature records for Friday...
CLL...95 set in 1954
IAH...95 set in 2014
HOU...94 set in 2015
GLS...90 set in 2015
PSX...93 set in 2015
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 61 88 68 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 61 84 70 / 30 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 69 81 74 / 70 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 10 AM CDT this morning
through this evening for GMZ330.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ335.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for GMZ335.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Adams
FXUS64 KHGX 111121
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
A mid/upper level trough axis is currently pushing across the
Southern Plains this morning, with widespread, light showers ongoing
across SE Texas. Much of this activity is being aided/supplemented
by a mid level shortwave trough/low over Mexico, providing PWs in
excess of 2" while invigorating PVA aloft. Expected numerous showers
to continue throughout the morning/early afternoon hours as the
surface low/trough associated with this system tracks NE across the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico. The pressure gradient should also
tighten with this coastal low, bringing breezy conditions along the
coastline. 850mb temperatures should be around 12-15C this
afternoon. Factor the cloud cover/rainfall, and highs for today
should range from the 70s to lower 80s.
The aforementioned surface low should push into the
North/Northeastern Gulf this afternoon/evening. Rain chances and
cloud cover should decrease across the area as drier air filters in
aloft. This should bring cooler conditions overnight, with lows
progged in the upper 50s to upper 60s. Thursday should be relatively
benign weather-wise, with PWs under 1" greatly limiting rain chances
for inland locations. Clearing skies and 850mb temperatures rising
to 16-18C should bring warmer conditions with highs progged to be in
the 80s. A deepening mid/upper level low over the Great
Basin/Rockies should promote surface cyclogenesis across the Plains.
This should strengthen WAA and moisture advection across the region,
with lows for Thursday night ranging from the mid 60s to mid 70s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
Friday will be the warmest day of the week with high temperatures ranging
from the upper 80s to lower 90s (record highs for Friday the 13th are
in the climate section below). The next cold front (rain chances slim
to none) will move through the area late Friday through Friday night
with breezy north winds developing in its wake (Friday night`s low will
range from the mid to upper 50s far north to the low to mid 60s closer
to the coast). Surface high pressure will then ridge across the area
from the north while a northwest flow develop aloft, and this will allow
for cool night and mild days to set up for several days from the weekend
(especially on Sunday) on into the first half of next week (lows in
the 50s/60s with maybe some far northern locations in the 40s...and
highs in the 70s/80s). This period will be dry too. 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 536 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
MVFR CIGS and numerous showers are expected across SE Texas this
morning. Rain chances should decrease heading into the afternoon,
with CIGS lifting back to VFR levels during the late afternoon
hours (except for KLBX/KGLS). Additional MVFR/IFR CIGS/decks may
develop late Wednesday night into early Thursday morning.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 334 PM CDT Tue Oct 10 2023
The developing coastal low pressure system across the southwestern
Gulf will be moving to the NNE and NE today and will bring increasing
winds and seas to the area (Small Craft Advisories will be going
into effect this morning and will continue into at least early this
evening). Expect the widespread rain areas early this morning to taper
off beginning this evening (look for the winds and seas to decrease
too). An onshore flow returns to the area in a Thursday-Friday time
period, and then the next cold front moves through the area Friday
evening/night. Moderate to occasionally strong north winds and elevated
seas will develop behind this front early Saturday (Small Craft Advisories
will be needed), followed by lowering north winds and decreasing seas
Saturday night through Sunday night. 42
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 338 AM CDT Wed Oct 11 2023
Here are the record high temperature records for Friday...
CLL...95 set in 1954
IAH...95 set in 2014
HOU...94 set in 2015
GLS...90 set in 2015
PSX...93 set in 2015
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 81 61 88 68 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 75 61 84 70 / 30 10 10 10
Galveston (GLS) 76 69 81 74 / 70 10 20 20
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution from 10 AM CDT this morning
through this evening for GMZ330.
Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ335.
Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM this morning to 7 PM CDT this
evening for GMZ335.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Adams
AVIATION...03
MARINE...Adams
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4300
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Got some moderate to at times heavy rain here in CS, definitely was not expecting that at all
Yeah the rain shield is much further inland than what models were thinking.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2357
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
Picked up a steady soaking rain for about 8 hours.
And I put down coastal seed in the hay pasture yesterday, so perfect timing!
Y’all enjoy your hell weather on Friday! I will be in NE Tennessee enjoying Fall!
And I put down coastal seed in the hay pasture yesterday, so perfect timing!
Y’all enjoy your hell weather on Friday! I will be in NE Tennessee enjoying Fall!
Team #NeverSummer
Still 68°F and light rain this morning. This is my kind of forecast bust. 