November 2023

[sambucol]

When is the rain coming?

[DoctorMu]

When is the rain coming?

Thursday - Tuesday.

Models vary, but there will be a North-to-South increasing gradient. South of I-10 is progged to receive 4+ inches up to a foot in isolated areas.

The Euro is pretty aggressive.

[Cpv17]

When is the rain coming?

Thursday - Tuesday.

Models vary, but there will be a North-to-South increasing gradient. South of I-10 is progged to receive 4+ inches up to a foot in isolated areas.

The Euro is pretty aggressive.

The EPS pretty much agrees with its operational too.

[don]

There's some big differences between the GFS and EURO with QPF amounts.The WPC is splitting the difference with their QPF forecast somewhat in the middle of both models.The EURO has a stronger SE ridge than the GFS which causes the jet to be orientated inland as it has to go up north around the ridge.The GFS's flatter ridging allows the jet to continue on a more southern trajectory from Mexico into the Gulf.Keeping most of the disturbances along the jet stream offshore.Who shall win this battle? LOL

[sambucol]

Are these models showing rain totals over a period of several days?

[don]

Are these models showing rain totals over a period of several days?

Yes,we will have on and off opportunities of rain from Thursday till Tuesday or Wednesday next week.As multiple disturbances will be passing through along a stalled frontal boundary.A long soaking rain, and im not too concerned about flooding as things look to be spread out.(Though there could be some flooding issues if the EURO qpf amounts verified). Safer bet right now is to go in the middle of both models, until we get into the range of the mesoscale models.

[DoctorMu]

Once the cool air is through, I'd be OK with the GFS solution. More rain for those who want it. Less for us who really don't want a lot.

Save heavy QPF for summertime!

[Cpv17]

Sheesh, talk about a huge difference between the Euro and GFS.

[brazoriatx]

If this was January or February and it was below freezing we would have ourselves one hell or a ice or snowstorm lol

[Cpv17]

If this was January or February and it was below freezing we would have ourselves one hell or a ice or snowstorm lol

Haha I was thinking the same thing.

[Cpv17]

After looking at the ensembles, it appears that the EPS agrees more with its operational than the GEFS agrees with its operational. So maybe lean more towards the Euro? We will find out more using the mesoscale models when they get more into range but so far they have the rain beginning late tomorrow.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 080947
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
347 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

Another hot and humid day is expected today as southerly flow
persists bringing afternoon high temperatures into the mid to upper
80s. Galveston (82 - 2005), Palacios (86 - 1989) and College Station
(89 - 1989) will be within a degree or two of breaking their high
temperature record today, but Houston (89 - 1989) and Houston/Hobby
(89 - 1973) may also be within a few degrees of their record. While
we are baking in some late season summer heat, a cold front will
begin to form in North-Central Texas. The front will move through
the rest of Texas tonight and begin its approach into SE Texas
Thursday morning.

Current expected timing of the FROPA will be around Noon in the BCS
to Crockett area, around 6pm along the I-10 corridor, to the coast
by 9pm-Midnight then stalling off the coast. High temperatures on
Friday will be highly dependent on the exact frontal timing, but it
will range from the mid 70s across the north (behind the front by
the late morning) to the low/mid 80s along the coast (ahead of the
front before peak heating). The front that moves through will be
fairly shallow with PWATs near 1.5" to 1.75" remaining in the area
even after the FROPA. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms
will not only accompany the front itself on Thursday
afternoon/evening, but the chance for precipitation will continue
Friday and then into the weekend (but more on that in the Long Term
below). Rainfall totals through Friday afternoon will generally be
up to 1" to 1.5", but could see some isolated higher amounts to 3".

Overnight temperatures through the short term will be mid to upper
60s tonight as WAA reigns supreme, but then down into the mid 50s to
low 60s Thursday night after the front has moved through.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

With the cold front lingering just off of the Upper TX coast by Fri
night, the best rain chances will remain situated across our south-
ern/coastal counties. Not expecting much very clearing with regards
to clouds and POPs behind the front heading into the weekend as per
the possible development of a coastal trough and a persistent west-
southwest flow aloft (via a developing mid/upper trof to our west).

Global models seem to be coming into slightly better agreement with
regards to the location and track of this coastal low. And, per the
latest runs, this system should form just off the Lower TX coast by
early Sat, and linger in/around this general area through the week-
end. This combined with a series of embedded disturbances moving in
from the W/SW, rain chances are expected remain elevated across the
CWA Sat/Sun...with the highest POPs over our more southern counties
and coastal waters (closer to the stalled front/coastal trough). As
we head into the start of next week, this(ese) system(s) should be-
gin to slowly track away from the region with POPs starting a grad-
ual decline. The persistent rain chances/clouds will help keep cool
temperatures in place through the weekend...with highs generally in
the 60s and lows in the 50s. 41

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

There may still be some periods of MVFR conditions across CLL, UTS,
and CXO shortly before and after sunrise this morning with CIGs down
to 1500 to 2500ft. Then VFR conditions with southwesterly winds of 10
to 15kts and gusts up to 20kts is expected through this evening.
Winds will weaken to around 5kts tonight with MVFR conditions
returning to the same terminals as this morning by around 9z. A cold
front will move through the area later in the day on Thursday
bringing a northwesterly wind shift and scattered precipitation.

Fowler

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CST Wed Nov 8 2023

Light to moderate onshore winds will prevail through Thurs afternoon
with seas running from 2 to 4 feet. A cold front remains on track to
move across SE TX Thurs night...pushing off the coast by Fri morning.
Widespread showers are possible ahead of and with the passage of the
front with a shift to stronger offshore winds and increasing seas in
its wake. Strong winds, elevated seas and widespread unsettled weat-
her are expected to continue through the weekend with the cold front
stalling and the development of a coastal trough of low pressure at/
around the Lower TX coast. This could result in a combination of Ad-
visory and Caution flags behind the front on through Sun. 41

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 88 68 78 56 / 0 0 70 90
Houston (IAH) 87 67 82 62 / 0 0 30 70
Galveston (GLS) 80 71 78 67 / 0 0 20 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Fowler
LONG TERM....41
AVIATION...Fowler
MARINE...41

[Stratton20]

Euro keeps most of the heaviest precipitation near the coast, thats no bueno, need that to trend north

[don]

Everyone will get rain,but it does appear that the brunt of heaviest rain will be along and south of I-10.Friday/Saturday could be a washout for some.A few of the 12Z mesoscale models below.

[Cpv17]

The 12z GFS has almost nothing north of I-10 and maybe 1 to 1.50” south of there. I think the GFS is lost.

[don]

What a difference between the 12Z GFS and EURO.

[Cromagnum]

Can we add an S and make it the GFSS model?
(Good For Something, Surely?)

It has been hot garbage all year.

[Stratton20]

Might as well call it the Global Fail System, the GFS has been so atrocious the last year or so, pretty good bet its going to be incorrect here, leaning towards euro, heck even the GEFS ensemble doesnt agree with its OP run

[Cpv17]

Might as well call it the Global Fail System, the GFS has been so atrocious the last year or so, pretty good bet its going to be incorrect here, leaning towards euro, heck even the GEFS ensemble doesnt agree with its OP run

Like I said earlier this morning, the GFS and the GEFS don’t even agree with each other. Gotta side with the Euro on this one.

[DoctorMu]

GEPS Ensemble is in agreement with the Euro.

South of I-10 is going to load up on rain. 1-3 inches in CLL probably.