Collin Myers
@collinmyerswx
·
10m
2:50pm Radar - #Houston & SE Texas:
Light to moderate thunderstorms continue.
Low instability, a mess of rain, and a shrinking warm sector are all limiting further development.
Still no Tornado Watch.
We’ll see how this afternoon progresses. So far, so good.
November 2023
I think the event is pretty well over down here to be honest.
Next…
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
So far this has turned into another bust.
One of coworkers posted on chat “This is why I came into the office anyway. They have cried wolf too many times now”
Another one said: “I think the weather people got a lot of clicks and shares yesterday”
One of coworkers posted on chat “This is why I came into the office anyway. They have cried wolf too many times now”
Another one said: “I think the weather people got a lot of clicks and shares yesterday”
Sun is finally coming out a lil bit over here now. A lil too late.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:46 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Mesoscale Discussion 2292
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast TX into extreme
southwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302152Z - 302315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and locally damaging gusts may
still evolve late this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection persists this afternoon near the upper TX
coast, while storms have also recently developed near the western
edge of deeper moisture across parts of east-central TX. Thus far,
convection has struggled to become organized, despite the presence
of rich low-level moisture and favorable wind profiles. This is
likely due to widespread cloudiness across the region, with weak
low-level lapse rates where convection is ongoing.
While MLCINH is not prohibitive for surface-based storms (largely
due to the rich low-level moisture), the short-term potential for
organized storms remains uncertain, with a continued tendency for
convection to remain slightly elevated as it moves through a poor
lapse rate environment where clouds remain entrenched. However, with
favorable deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (greater
closer to the coast) across the region, a transient supercell and/or
a stronger line segment cannot be ruled out through the remainder of
the afternoon, with an attendant threat of a tornado and/or locally
damaging gusts.
With the threat expected to remain rather isolated through the
afternoon, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. Some uptick
remains possible sometime this evening, especially into far
southeast TX/southwest LA, and trends will continue to be monitored
for an increase in storm organization/intensity, given the favorable
wind profiles and low-level moisture in place.
..Dean.. 11/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CST Thu Nov 30 2023
Areas affected...Parts of east-central/southeast TX into extreme
southwest LA
Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely
Valid 302152Z - 302315Z
Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent
SUMMARY...Some threat for a tornado and locally damaging gusts may
still evolve late this afternoon.
DISCUSSION...Convection persists this afternoon near the upper TX
coast, while storms have also recently developed near the western
edge of deeper moisture across parts of east-central TX. Thus far,
convection has struggled to become organized, despite the presence
of rich low-level moisture and favorable wind profiles. This is
likely due to widespread cloudiness across the region, with weak
low-level lapse rates where convection is ongoing.
While MLCINH is not prohibitive for surface-based storms (largely
due to the rich low-level moisture), the short-term potential for
organized storms remains uncertain, with a continued tendency for
convection to remain slightly elevated as it moves through a poor
lapse rate environment where clouds remain entrenched. However, with
favorable deep-layer shear and 0-1 km SRH of 200-300 m2/s2 (greater
closer to the coast) across the region, a transient supercell and/or
a stronger line segment cannot be ruled out through the remainder of
the afternoon, with an attendant threat of a tornado and/or locally
damaging gusts.
With the threat expected to remain rather isolated through the
afternoon, short-term watch issuance is unlikely. Some uptick
remains possible sometime this evening, especially into far
southeast TX/southwest LA, and trends will continue to be monitored
for an increase in storm organization/intensity, given the favorable
wind profiles and low-level moisture in place.
..Dean.. 11/30/2023
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
Looks like Stratton was right after all...
I prefer the late afternoon and evening setups with a lot of sun throughout the day for severe storms but we rarely get that around here.
Last edited by Cpv17 on Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:45 pm, edited 1 time in total.
2.5 inches in my rain gauge which I will gladly take.
The dew point here stopped rising at about 11-11:30. In fact it has dropped some since 2. Once I saw that level off I knew it was a bust up here.
Only 0.24” so far. Pitiful compared to those QPF forecasts…
Only 0.24” so far. Pitiful compared to those QPF forecasts…
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
guinness i had a feeling that the cloudiness was going to keep a lid on severe potential today, and im certainly happy for folks that got meaningful rain without any of the severe stuff
-
biggerbyte
- Posts: 1142
- Joined: Thu Feb 04, 2010 12:15 am
- Location: Porter, Texas. (Montgomery County)
- Contact:
We are setting a dangerous precedent for the general public. Not even within 24 hours. Cry wolf syndrome is deadly. Armageddon on the rocks. We better do better than this.
I don’t think anyone got anything severe today. Didn’t hear about one single watch or warning all day.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2023 4:55 pm guinness i had a feeling that the cloudiness was going to keep a lid on severe potential today, and im certainly happy for folks that got meaningful rain without any of the severe stuff
Agree 100%!biggerbyte wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:00 pm We are setting a dangerous precedent for the general public. Not even within 24 hours. Cry wolf syndrome is deadly. Armageddon on the rocks. We better do better than this.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Forecasts have busted before and this won't be the last time. All of the broadcasters last night were making a huge point that this setup was conditional. The real problem is that society has gotten soft and everyone wants to shutdown all activity at the slightest hint of bad weather. In the 80s as a kid, if it stormed while we were at school, we just dealt with it.biggerbyte wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:00 pm We are setting a dangerous precedent for the general public. Not even within 24 hours. Cry wolf syndrome is deadly. Armageddon on the rocks. We better do better than this.
Last edited by Cromagnum on Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:36 pm, edited 1 time in total.
It's STILL raining at home apparently according to my wife. Ditch in front of the house is full and there is standing water in my backyard.
Maybe a bit hyperbolic...biggerbyte wrote: ↑Thu Nov 30, 2023 5:00 pm We are setting a dangerous precedent for the general public. Not even within 24 hours. Cry wolf syndrome is deadly. Armageddon on the rocks. We better do better than this.
Bust happen, the weather is very hard to forecast. They weren't forecasting Armageddon, it was a conditional chance of tornadoes. And that's a good thing it didn't happen. Only thing that sucks is the rain was not as widespread because the warm front didn't move pass I-10.I've picked up about 1" of rain so far.The southeastern half of Harris county has rainfall amounts of 1-3 inches showing in the counties rain gauges, not bad.Though it would have been nice if those rainfall amounts were more widespread across the area. So understand some disappointment in that.
I got an inch and hope to get a little tomorrow 
.
.