Atlantic Basin SST'S and Anomalies

[desiredwxgd]

Getting Warm. Warming fast/early???

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[Paul]

Getting Warm. Warming fast/early???

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nice avatar..Alicia as she went to a low cat3 (DEBATABLE)......Yes warmer now than 2005...its going to be ugly if we get low shear and boiling ssts in the GOM...

I have been following tropical weather since 1983 (Alicia). I was 12yrs old at that time. I must say I have a worse feeling now than I did when IKE was progged into MX.....we all knew that ridge would not hold for 4 days to send IKE into MX or lower TX coast. The EURO had it pegged 5 days out. It was the trend setter and we should be all watching it when we get developement here in the next 4 weeks or so....I dont care what ED says...

Texas has not had a major since 83 officially. Before then we had a good share back in the 40's and 50's...we should all be prepared this year...

[desiredwxgd]

Getting Warm. Warming fast/early???

sst.gif

nice avatar..Alicia as she went to a low cat3 (DEBATABLE)......Yes warmer now than 2005...its going to be ugly if we get low shear and boiling ssts in the GOM...

I have been following tropical weather since 1983 (Alicia). I was 12yrs old at that time. I must say I have a worse feeling now than I did when IKE was progged into MX.....we all knew that ridge would not hold for 4 days to send IKE into MX or lower TX coast. The EURO had it pegged 5 days out. It was the trend setter and we should be all watching it when we get developement here in the next 4 weeks or so....I dont care what ED says...

Texas has not had a major since 83 officially. Before then we had a good share back in the 40's and 50's...we should all be prepared this year...

Alicia, thats my girl. Where it all started for me. Waters are warming much faster this year.

[Ptarmigan]

Let's look at statistics of Upper Texas Coast tropical cyclones. A tropical cyclone (tropical storm and hurricane) hits the Upper Texas Coast every 1.9 year. Hurricanes come every 3.6 years, while major hurricanes come every 10.8 years. This going back to 1870 to 2010.

Probability For Landfall on Upper Texas Coast
1 Tropical Cyclone=Every 1.9 years
1 Hurricane=Every 3.6 years
1 Major Hurricane=Every 10.8 years

2 Tropical Cyclones=Every 3.6 years
2 Hurricanes=Every 13 years
2 Major Hurricanes=Every 117 years

3 Tropical Cyclones=Every 6.9 years
3 Hurricanes=Every 46.7 years
3 Major Hurricanes=Every 1,260 years

4 Tropical Cyclones=Every 13 years
4 Hurricanes=Every 168 years
4 Major Hurricanes=Every 13,605 years

Probability by months for the Upper Texas Coast. It is from 1870 to 2010. Tropical cyclones that made landfall as tropical depressions count as tropical cyclones and are included (Ivan in 2004 and Erin in 2007). The Upper Texas Coast has never been hit by two major hurricanes back to back. However, it is very probable it has happened before.

June (14/6/0)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 10 years
Hurricane=Every 23.3 years
Major Hurricane=None Recorded (Hurricane Audrey was not a major hurricane.)

July (12/5/1)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 11.7 years
Hurricane=Every 28 years
Major Hurricane=Every 140 years (Some hurricanes that made landfall on Texas could get reclassified as major hurricanes.)

August (21/7/6)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 6.7 years
Hurricane=Every 20 years
Major Hurricane=Every 23.3 years

September (22/6/5)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 6.4 years
Hurricane=Every 23.3 years
Major Hurricane=Every 28 years

October (5/2/1)
Tropical Cyclone=Every 28 years
Hurricane=Every 70 years
Major Hurricane=Every 140 years (Only one documented major hurricane made landfall in October. It is probable that there have been major hurricanes that made landfall on the Upper Texas coast in October.)

November
None. However, it could be possible that some tropical cyclones have had made landfall on the Upper Texas Coast, but went unrecorded prior to 1851.

More than one tropical cyclones making landfall on the Upper Texas Coast in the same month is a very rare occurrence. It has happened before in September of 1941 and August of 1942. The other occurrence was June of 1871.

June 1871
2 Tropical Storms
Landfall was 7 Days Apart
Probability: Every 100 years

September 1941
1 Tropical Storm
1 Major Hurricane
Landfall was 8 Days Apart
Probability: Every 179.2 years

August 1942
1 Hurricane
1 Major Hurricane
Landfall was 9 Days Apart
Probability: Every 466 Years

[Paul]

nice work PT...that is why you got your title!!

[Ptarmigan]

nice work PT...that is why you got your title!!

Thanks you! I would not worry about a major hurricane in June. Audrey was not a major hurricane. I would be more concerned for a Allison type storm right now. They both happened in June.

[desiredwxgd]

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[desiredwxgd]

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[desiredwxgd]

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So listening to JB today. I like the guy but it would be nice if he didn't always make it a "very strong point" to remind everyone that he has been forecasting the way the season is looking to be. I don't know, perhaps it's part of his contract to "pat" Accuweather on its back. Anyway, warm warm warm!!!!!!!

[desiredwxgd]

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