December 2023

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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DoctorMu
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One bad thing about today's WSW wind. My neighbor's tree leaves are falling into our yard. :lol:
Cromagnum
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 12:01 pm Texas is in!! Woohoo! Sucks so bad for Jordan Travis and FSU.
The committee screwed the pooch on that. I'm glad FSU's AD is raising hell.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 12:52 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 12:01 pm Texas is in!! Woohoo! Sucks so bad for Jordan Travis and FSU.
Texas and Bama had the #3 and #2 SOS per Sagarin. FSU had the #62 SOS.

Can't wait for the 12 team playoffs next year! More games in November will matter.
Absolutely agree!
TexasBreeze
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I figured Georgia would be #4 or 5 and Michigan #1, Washington #2, FSU #3. It was all up in the air between Alabama, Texas, or Georgia getting in or not and suprise AL and TX did so.
At least the sun is out today so it is a decently nice day. Would be better if it was more crisp out for putting up lights though.
Cpv17
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TexasBreeze wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 2:06 pm I figured Georgia would be #4 or 5 and Michigan #1, Washington #2, FSU #3. It was all up in the air between Alabama, Texas, or Georgia getting in or not and suprise AL and TX did so.
At least the sun is out today so it is a decently nice day. Would be better if it was more crisp out for putting up lights though.
Texas got in cuz they of the way they finished playing the season very strongly and they won their conference and beat Alabama by double digits at their own house, which had never been done in the Saban era at Alabama. And the sun was out here this morning but it’s been cloudy here now since about 11am.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Saban going to win it all then hopefully retire.
Team #NeverSummer
Cpv17
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 4:26 pm Saban going to win it all then hopefully retire.
I kinda feel like Alabama will win it all too but I’m not sure he’ll retire yet.
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tireman4
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Liberty is in!!! New Years 6 Bowl, against Oregon! Great day today as we traveled home from Aggieland at the Gulf Age Group Swim Championships.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Meh, good recruiter but Nil is your main recruiter today. Money is.

He was never going to be the main DC at A&M, and Elko knew that he wasn’t ready. He’s going to coach with his best friend and he’s from that area so I’m happy for him.
Team #NeverSummer
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sambucol
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Last edited by sambucol on Sun Dec 03, 2023 7:44 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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DoctorMu
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Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:04 pm Big loss for A&M here 😕

https://twitter.com/billyliucci/status/ ... kKTGqvWItg
Oops. ERob should have been DC.
Cpv17
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DoctorMu wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 6:59 pm
Cpv17 wrote: Sun Dec 03, 2023 5:04 pm Big loss for A&M here 😕

https://twitter.com/billyliucci/status/ ... kKTGqvWItg
Oops. ERob should have been DC.
I agree. The players and recruits loved that guy.
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 041053
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
453 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Today is National Cookie Day and with the weather throughout the
short term period being a sweet treat...let`s have some fun! See if
you can catch all of the cookie puns sprinkled in...there are a lot
of brownie points up for grabs! Upper level clouds continue to
stream overhead along and south of I-10 as we remain close enough to
a jet streak and a stream of PVA from shortwaves extending from
northern Mexico to the Upper Texas coastline. We forgot the cooking
spray though, so the upper level clouds will stick around into
tonight even with a cold front pushing offshore by the mid morning
hours today. This will be a dry FROPA as PW values remain in the
0.3"-0.4" range (10th percentile: ~0.36"), so it`ll stay nice and
crisp out there. You`ll fill a difference this afternoon dough with
temperatures slightly cooler than Sunday`s with highs topping out in
the mid to upper 60s. That`s just the first of two cold fronts that
push through early this week...it keeps getting batter and batter!

Surface high pressure drifts overhead today and remains in place
tonight. The upper level clouds south of I-10 begin to crumble
overnight as the previously mint-tioned stream of PVA nudges
southward. So, we`ll have light winds and clearing skies with CAA
prevailing...that`s a slam dunk recipe for max radiational cooling!
Expect low temperatures to bottom out in the upper 30s to upper 40s.
Coming up on Chews-day, another mid/upper level trough dips down
into the Upper Midwest with its associated surface low drifting
southeastward from the Dakotas to the Great Lakes region. This will
lead to another weak FROPA on late Tuesday afternoon/evening
bringing us s`more CAA going into Tuesday night. It`s worth noting
that we catch the tail-end of the second front, so the main batch of
colder air will remain to our northeast. Ahead of the front on
Tuesday afternoon, we`ll still see temperatures reach the upper 60s
to low 70s. With skies finally cleared out for all of Southeast
Texas on Tuesday night and a ~1030mb surface high pressure moving in
leading to light winds again, I decided to take a calculated whisk
and trend a little bite cooler. Expect low temperatures to be a
degree or two cooler than Monday night`s.

Speaking of Tuesday night, this is when mid to upper level ridging
begins to chip in from the west. That sets the stage for raisin
temperatures going into the long term period...but they don`t look
to get high enough to get us into baking territory! Hopefully I
didn`t fudge the numbers while counting things up, but if you
counted 24 puns then you got em all and earned the title of "one
smart cookie"!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Surface high pressure ridging into the area from the north at the start
of this period will gradually work its way eastward through the end
of the week. Northeast to east winds on Wednesday will become southeast
to south through the end of the week resulting in a warming trend. Moisture
levels will also be on the rise from this onshore flow, and rains will
come back into the forecast mainly from late Friday night through early
Sunday morning. The latest forecast has the next cold front moving across
the area during the day on Saturday. Cooler and drier weather accompanied
by breezy northwest to north winds can be expected Saturday night and
Sunday behind this front.

The high temperature trend has readings in the 60s on Wednesday increasing
to mainly 70s on Thursday, Friday and Saturday. Behind the front on
Sunday, we`ll indicate highs in the 50s/60.

The low temperature trend has readings in the 40s Wednesday night increasing
to the 50s/60s on Thursday night and Friday night. Behind the front
on Saturday night, we`ll indicate lows in the 40s.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 453 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Mainly a wind forecast with VFR conditions prevailing throughout
the TAF period. Winds pick up out of the northwest initially
following the passage of a weak cold front then transitions to
northeasterly by the late morning hours. Winds become light and
variable after sunset.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 302 AM CST Mon Dec 4 2023

Mainly light northeasterly winds and low seas will persist through at
least midweek, becoming southerly and increasing (seas rising too) by
the end of the week. Winds could occasionally flirt with caution speeds.
Look for a cold front (and associated showers/storms) to move off the
coast and through the area on Saturday with strong northwest winds
and building seas in its wake (advisories will likely be needed).

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 67 41 69 41 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 46 70 45 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 65 55 66 52 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42
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jasons2k
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It’s always amusing to me when UT or A&M shoots themselves in the foot. No way UT would’ve made the playoffs if they were in the SEC. Keep dreamin’ that Saban is ready to stop terrorizing everyone else in the conference.
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tireman4
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While the SPC has highlighted parts of SE #Texas for severe weather on Saturday... my gut is telling me that this threat will stay to our NE

Right now, timing of the trough doesn't line up with the instability axis... this could change ofc, but biggest threat looks east

#khou11
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DoctorMu
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Perfect Chamber of Commerce day. Mid 60s. Sunny. A bit of a breeze. Low DP.
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DoctorMu
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Bonus: We have actual Fall coloring in our trees. Photos to follow later.
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jasons2k
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DoctorMu wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 12:46 pm Bonus: We have actual Fall coloring in our trees. Photos to follow later.
Yes, it’s been a nice fall considering the summer from hell. The early fall rains helped the trees a lot. Great colors (for Texas anyway). I just went for a lunchtime walk and it’s beautiful outside. What a perfect day.
Cpv17
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tireman4 wrote: Mon Dec 04, 2023 11:20 am While the SPC has highlighted parts of SE #Texas for severe weather on Saturday... my gut is telling me that this threat will stay to our NE

Right now, timing of the trough doesn't line up with the instability axis... this could change ofc, but biggest threat looks east

#khou11
Of course! Almost every event is off to our north or east. Especially when it comes to severe stuff.
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