Wx Infinity Forums

jasons2k wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:38 am

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:45 am NOAA nailed my low of 12°F. NAM was solid in predicting mixed precip. Our local mets had the best record.

57 must live right on the Gulf. He must be addicted to dripping sweat.

We'll rise into the 60s tomorrow briefly with the dry air and SW winds from Mexico (lows are near freezing both nights), then back into the 40s for highs on Friday. Thursday is a Big Bend kinda day weatherwise.

Next week is the big change to an unsettled pattern and rain.

He lives in Westbury.

This weekend’s cold snap is much more ‘normal’ and manageable for SE Texas. I’m looking forward to next week. Keeping one eye open on February.

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:12 pm It’s a flood

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:23 pm

Stormlover2020 wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:12 pm It’s a flood

Totally wasted. Give me this on July 17.

Of course, it would probably be a hurricane!

don wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:06 pm 0Z GFS

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (7).png

user:null wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 10:02 pm

don wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 1:26 pmYes, the globals can do a good job with arctic air. I don't think any of us ever disagreed with that. We were just stating that usually the mesoscale models will do a better job with temps and precip in the short term specifically with shallow air. I was never debating about the overall lows( I could care less to be honest LOL).

My focus was if we would drop below freezing faster than what the global we're showing on Sunday as that would have big implications on whether we would have icing issues or just a cold rain. If meteorologists went with the global models last Friday/Saturday the general public would have been just expecting a cold rainy day on Monday. And would have been surprised with icy overpasses and flyovers. There would have been FAR more accidents than there were. The mesoscale models nailed the temps dropping faster allowing precip to become frozen.

And yes in general the mesoscale models did a better job than the global with temps with this event.I'm not sure what the debate is...

There was never any "debate" in the formal sense of the term — my posts were actually just more of commentaries/inquiries based on sentiments that I've seen in the past from boards like this, storm2k, etc.

I pretty much agree with all of your post here. I just not a fan of dogmatic statements on these wx boards like "globals are always too warm" with arctic blasts — yes they whiff on events like this one, or the I-35 arborgeddon in late Jan/early Feb 2023, but they nail others like Feb 2021 and Dec 2022. I guess I'd prefer more discussion on why such discrepancies exist, instead of dogmatic statements against globals versus mesocales (or vice-versa).

And, again, even within mesoscales, the NAM, supposedly a great model at handling shallow airmasses, now apparently "ran too warm." Huh?

was never debating about the overall lows I could care less to be honest LOL).

*couldn't.

don wrote: ↑Wed Jan 17, 2024 11:06 pm 0Z GFS

qpf_acc-imp.us_sc (7).png

Increasing moisture ahead of the western U.S. troughing will start
to spread rain into the southern Plains on Sunday. The trend has
been for heavy rain to start over south Texas late Sunday night,
so a Marginal Risk area remains in place there on the Day 4
Excessive Rainfall Outlook. Rain totals are forecast to quickly
ramp up on Monday and last through Tuesday-Wednesday for parts of
the southern Plains into the Lower Mississippi Valley, and these
heavy totals could produce flash flooding concerns. As a starting
point, a Slight Risk is delineated for Day 5/Monday in the
southeastern quadrant of Texas into far southwestern Louisiana
where the best potential for instability to produce high rain
rates is, with a Marginal Risk extending farther north in Oklahoma
and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:43 am Bottle up all that rain and save it for the upcoming miserable summer.

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:46 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:43 am Bottle up all that rain and save it for the upcoming miserable summer.

Don’t get the impression that we’ll be dealing with a miserable summer this year but I do think the 2025 summer could be miserable.
This summer we have to watch the tropics.

Pas_Bon wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 1:02 pm

Cpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:46 am

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Thu Jan 18, 2024 11:43 am Bottle up all that rain and save it for the upcoming miserable summer.

Don’t get the impression that we’ll be dealing with a miserable summer this year but I do think the 2025 summer could be miserable.
This summer we have to watch the tropics.

One major hurricane can make an otherwise moderate summer “miserable.”