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Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:57 am writing off an event before its started is pretty unwise, the NAM is still showing widespread freezing precip

I'm work from home Mon-Wed regardless of what happens and will likely be without power and on generator regardless as well. Cold and wind with no snow is a complete waste, and honestly just a pain in the *** at this point.

Cromagnum wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 10:39 am Just lost power for the 7th time this week. I hate the shitty infrastructure in my area.

My neighborhood just said "hold my beer"...

I’ll take the cold regardless of precip or not. After the summer heat we had, just the cold temps are wonderful.

Dang,

What Happen? Board was jumping. So have models changed again?

operational guidance is dog water and not useful at this range anymore, stick with the mesocale guidance folks, we know this folks, the NAM still brings frozen precip in parts of se texas as well as the rgem, so some folks on this forum will still be impacted

I won't feel confident one way or the other about frozen precip chances until tomorrow when most of the suite of mesoscale models will be in range. Right now it looks like the northern counties will see freezing rain and possibly sleet Sunday night into Monday. Still a question mark for the central and coastal counties though. We'll know more tonight and tomorrow. I'm leaning towards a cold rain for those zones, but I need to see more data before completely writing things off.

The forecast hasn't changed much in CLL. 40% chance of wintry stuff on MLK Day. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens for 2-3 days.

Light ice storm here.

NAM with an ice/sleet event. Maybe sleet/snow from Hearne to Marshall?

RGEM agrees.

SE of I-59 looks like mostly rain.

If its a cold rain, send that cold to the east of us , id rather be at 70 degrees than rainy and mid 30’s

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:56 pm The forecast hasn't changed much in CLL. 40% chance of wintry stuff on MLK Day. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens for 2-3 days.

Light ice storm here.

NAM with an ice/sleet event. Maybe sleet/snow from Hearne to Marshall?

I haven’t chimed in much this winter but if I was to take a guess I would lean towards pushing that chance of frozen precipitation further to the south and east closer to the coastline, assuming the NAM is correct that moisture will be available in the 1st place. SETX history has taught me the chances of frozen precipitation usually ends up materializing a little further south than initially modeled, thus occasionally catching forecasters and the public by surprise.

869MB wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:08 pm

DoctorMu wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 12:56 pm The forecast hasn't changed much in CLL. 40% chance of wintry stuff on MLK Day. Highs in the 30s, lows in the teens for 2-3 days.

Light ice storm here.

NAM with an ice/sleet event. Maybe sleet/snow from Hearne to Marshall?

I haven’t chimed in much this winter but if I was to take a guess I would lean towards pushing that chance of frozen precipitation further to the south and east closer to the coastline, assuming the NAM is correct that moisture will be available in the 1st place. SETX history has taught me the chances of frozen precipitation usually ends up materializing a little further south than initially modeled, thus occasionally catching forecasters and the public by surprise.

I agree with that. I've seen that scenario happen several times here. A lot of times we have to get within 48 hours until we really know for sure if we'll see frozen precip or not.

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:19 pm Hey gang, we need your help. Andrew has been paying the bills to keep the Forum up and running for the past year due to no donations. Please take a moment and make a contribution to keep Weather Infinity up and running. A 5 or 10 Dollar donation will help, but please consider a monthly reoccurring contribution to keep the Forum up and running smoothly. Thanks Gang!!

Donation done.
I honestly never looked at that big ol yellow button.

Now, on with the cold.

Very close call on the 18z NAM, definitely do not want to write this off here in se texas

Stratton20 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 3:09 pm Very close call on the 18z NAM, definitely do not want to write this off here in se texas

Unfortunately I think most of us already have..but there is always hope

NAM run is closer to a HWY 21 and north solution. I agree that the wintry mix is likely to slide further south.



Hope for the best. Expect to be disappointed.

Still 3 days away I’m interested to see hrr tomorrow

Rip76 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 1:45 pm

srainhoutx wrote: ↑Thu Jan 11, 2024 9:19 pm Hey gang, we need your help. Andrew has been paying the bills to keep the Forum up and running for the past year due to no donations. Please take a moment and make a contribution to keep Weather Infinity up and running. A 5 or 10 Dollar donation will help, but please consider a monthly reoccurring contribution to keep the Forum up and running smoothly. Thanks Gang!!

Donation done.
I honestly never looked at that big ol yellow button.

Now, on with the cold.

Donation sent

NOAA and KBTX leaning to a high of maybe 30° or below on Monday, with a 40% chance of freezing rain, sleet.

I don't think it's going to be too dry and we get verga'd. We'll see.

We just got automated call from entergy about extreme weather and to prepare and be on alert

christinac2016 wrote: ↑Fri Jan 12, 2024 4:33 pm We just got automated call from entergy about extreme weather and to prepare and be on alert

Here in the Woodlands as well.