February 2024

[Cpv17]

I dont think I have ever seen a winter abruptly end like this in February. Concerning whats to come for summertime.

I don’t really think there’s any correlation.

[jasons2k]

89 here today and it’s only February.

On a serious note, we need to get prepared for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring. Not just because it’s hot today, but because the way the recent and forecast trends are unfolding. We are drying out fast and the dryness of Northern Mexico & SW Texas is going to feedback into the cap.

[Cpv17]

89 here today and it’s only February.

On a serious note, we need to get prepared for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring. Not just because it’s hot today, but because the way the recent and forecast trends are unfolding. We are drying out fast and the dryness of Northern Mexico & SW Texas is going to feedback into the cap.

It was only 81°F here today. These winds can go kick rocks. Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

[jasons2k]

89 here today and it’s only February.

On a serious note, we need to get prepared for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring. Not just because it’s hot today, but because the way the recent and forecast trends are unfolding. We are drying out fast and the dryness of Northern Mexico & SW Texas is going to feedback into the cap.

It was only 81°F here today. These winds can go kick rocks. Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

I paid my dues in Lubbock

I hear you though. It’s a pain when working outside.

[Cpv17]

89 here today and it’s only February.

On a serious note, we need to get prepared for a mostly dry, cap-filled spring. Not just because it’s hot today, but because the way the recent and forecast trends are unfolding. We are drying out fast and the dryness of Northern Mexico & SW Texas is going to feedback into the cap.

It was only 81°F here today. These winds can go kick rocks. Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

I paid my dues in Lubbock

I hear you though. It’s a pain when working outside.

Yeah man, those winds in Lubbock are flat nuts lol

[davidiowx]

Winds like this also dry everything out much faster. Desert a cometh

The frogs are going nuts lol

[user:null]

Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

But Jasons2k is not a "city person", though — he lives in The Woodlands, which would be a suburban municipality just like Katy, Sugar Land, Pearland, League CIty, etc

In contrast, the real urban city is Houston in Inner Loop (inside 610), since it contains the most extensive, pre-war fabric (i.e. high density street grid, rail public transit, etc). But certain areas inside Beltway 8/beyond (notably Gulfton/Hilcroft area, and east axis down to Johnson Space Center) are also ripe for urbanization.

[user:null]

89 here today and it’s only February.

Temps at both IAH and HOU topped out a few degrees cooler — that 89°F would have been just short a monthly record high for both airport stations.

[Cpv17]

Y’all city folk don’t have to deal with it like I do living out in the country out in the open. Crap is annoying. Unfortunately, the next 6 weeks or so will probably have lots of windy days. It’s that time of year.

But Jasons2k is not a "city person", though — he lives in The Woodlands, which would be a suburban municipality just like Katy, Sugar Land, Pearland, League CIty, etc

In contrast, the real urban city is Houston in Inner Loop (inside 610), since it contains the most extensive, pre-war fabric (i.e. high density street grid, rail public transit, etc). But certain areas inside Beltway 8/beyond (notably Gulfton/Hilcroft area, and east axis down to Johnson Space Center) are also ripe for urbanization.

When you’re from a small town like me then you’d understand. People from small towns count the suburban areas as part of the city. Plus the suburbs are blocked from the wind just like anything inside of Beltway 8 or inside of 610 would be, which was my point to begin with.

[Stratton20]

So many acres of land being absolutely obliterated by the wild fires, and we arent even close to summer yet, i really cant blame folks for wanting to move away from texas , precipitation is going to be a big problem in the months ahead, not sure how many more summers I can endure here

[Cpv17]

So many acres of land being absolutely obliterated by the wild fires, and we arent even close to summer yet, i really cant blame folks for wanting to move away from texas , precipitation is going to be a big problem in the months ahead, not sure how many more summers I can endure here

More people are moving into Texas than out of Texas and I don’t even think it’s close.

[Stratton20]

Maybe lol, but ive just about had it with summers here, i cant take another 2-3 week stretch of 100+ degree weather and wild fires becoming frequent problems

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 280855
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Cold front will be sweeping through the region this
morning...College Station area prior to sunrise and off the beaches
during the mid morning hours. High temps will be observed right
before the frontal passage, followed by windy and colder conditions
in its wake. Threw in a wind advisory for areas along and west of I-
45 and also the coastal counties for 20-30mph speeds with higher
gusts at times. Winds will begin to taper off after sunset. Look for
overnight lows closer to seasonable norms.

Surface high pressure in the Plains behind this front slides
eastward toward the Tennessee Valley tonight. A coastal trof will
begin developing Thursday off the coast. Winds a bit further up will
begin veering around to a more se/s direction as the day progresses
and start transporting some llvl Gulf moisture back into the region.
PW`s recover from <1" early in the day back up to closer to 1.2"
(higher at the coast) by sunset. A steady stream of weak impulses in
the mid/upper flow will be making their way across the region
(moreso northern CWA). So...the combination of these disturbances,
coastal trof and increased moisture should lead to some increasing
chances of shra development across the region heading into the Thurs
afternoon and night. 47

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

For the first day of Meteorological Spring (March 1), we`ll be
treated with a chance of scattered showers/storms as a coastal
trough continues to push eastward...oh and seasonal daytime
temperatures with highs around 70°F. The best chances for rain on
Friday will be during the morning south of I-10 as that`s where the
greatest moisture availability will be set up. By Friday afternoon,
inland rain chances are coming to an end as drier air is pulled in
from the north. This sets us up for a pleasant start to the
weekend...but also a warming trend as well. High temperatures on
Saturday will top out in the upper 70s (isolated spots reaching
80°F) then solidly in the low 80s on Sunday. Overnight temperatures
see a similar climb as we go from lows in the 50s on Friday night to
the low 60s on Saturday night and mid to upper 60s on Sunday night.
This is due to the return of onshore flow, which does get some
enhancement over the weekend as our next upper level disturbance
approaches.

On late Saturday/Sunday, an upper level trough drifts through the
Pacific Northwest towards the Northern Plains and generates surface
low pressure. As the surface low develops and drifts eastward
towards the Upper Midwest, this helps to surge PW values up to 1.1"-
1.2" (75th percentile: ~1.13") by Sunday afternoon. That`s important
to note because during this time frame, we`ll be in the left exit
region of the subtropical jet (upper level divergence) along with
some embedded shortwaves moving through. As a result, we could see
some isolated to scattered showers/storms develop on Sunday
afternoon, but Monday night into Tuesday will be our best chances
for that as a cold front approaches. There is quite a bit of
uncertainty with what happens next week in relation to the cold
front and maybe even the development of a surface low near the Gulf
Coast. As of the 00Z deterministic models, only the GFS pushes the
front cleanly through with a deeper upper level trough. The ECMWF
and Canadian keep the front to our north and eventually develop a
surface low near us and drifting eastward. Given the uncertainty, I
stuck close to NBM for PoPs and temperatures, which as of right now
peaks the rain chances on Monday night/Tuesday morning and keeps
temperatures a bit above normal (upper 70s).

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

IFR & MVFR ceilings and fog should quickly trend back into VFR
territory this morning after a frontal passage. There will still be
some high level Pacific cloudiness streaming overhead, but main
aviation hazard from mid-morning onward will be gusty north winds in
the 18-30kt range. Speeds begin to taper off after sunset. Continued
VFR overnight, though we should see some 2500-5000 ft ceilings
return to the coast toward sunrise...then into the metro area by mid-
late morning Thurs. 47

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Patchy fog has begun to develop in the bays and coastal waters as
winds continue to diminish early this morning. This fog will remain
in place until the passage of a cold front later this morning, so a
Marine Dense Fog Advisory is now in effect. Wave heights in the
farshore Gulf waters remain around 7 feet, so the Small Craft
Advisory will continue till 3am CST but there is potential for it to
be extended a couple more hours. Once the cold front pushes offshore
during the late morning hours, moderate to strong northerly winds
will follow in its wake leading to another Small Craft Advisory
that`ll persist into Thursday night. Seas will subsequently build to
7-8 feet through Thursday as well before winds and seas begin to
subside. There is potential for seas to remain elevated into late
Thursday with an extended easterly fetch developing. A coastal
weather system develops on Thursday night and brings the next chance
of showers/storms through Friday. Onshore flow returns over the
weekend out ahead of the next weather system that brings another
round of showers/storms late Sunday into Monday.

Batiste

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 255 AM CST Wed Feb 28 2024

Elevated fire weather conditions are anticipated today with north
winds 20-30mph and RH`s bottoming out in the 28-40% range. Forecast
RH`s are slightly below Red Flag Warning criteria, but we`ll monitor
trends. The Texas A&M Forest Service continues to show a moderate
fire danger rating across a good portion of the area. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 61 46 54 46 / 0 10 30 50
Houston (IAH) 70 48 57 48 / 10 10 20 50
Galveston (GLS) 69 53 59 54 / 10 0 20 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Wind Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 6 PM CST this evening
for TXZ176-177-195>199-210>214-226-227-235>238-313-335>338-
436>439.

High Rip Current Risk until 10 AM CST this morning for
TXZ436>439.

GM...Dense Fog Advisory until noon CST today for GMZ330-335-350-355.

Small Craft Advisory from noon today to 9 PM CST Thursday for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM CST early this morning for
GMZ370-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until noon CST today for
GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...47
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...47
MARINE...Batiste

[user:null]

When you’re from a small town like me then you’d understand. People from small towns count the suburban areas as part of the city.

Fair enough. Are you from Wharton or El Campo? Both are pretty small towns, but El Campo is a good bit bigger as it's at least over 10,000 in population.

That said, as far is this region is concerned, I mainly view Houston and Galveston as "principal cities": other stuff is either suburbs/secondary cities, or smaller towns/rural.

Honestly, urban clusters have varying definitions due to nuances of employment/social linkages. However, in terms of "singular built-up unit" (city + respective suburbs), the metric called "urban area" represents an accurate structure:

• "City proper" (aka municipal boundary) is the narrowest definition ... but it can be quite arbitrary as city limits can be differing sizes due to annexations, consolidations, and other such municipal practices that depend on various nuances (see: Houston's 600+ sq miles versus San Francisco's 47 sq miles)
  .
• "Metro area" is defined by the US government, and is broader than "urban area" ... but the problem is that the "broadness" as defined in terms of entire counties ... and not every square inch of the counties is populated, let alone integrates with the core city. For instance, the whole Chambers county is grouped with "Greater Houston Metro Area" ... but it's not very populated outside of bits adjacent to Baytown, the rest is all wildnerness/marshland. Similar situation with Brazoria county with Pearland versus the rest of the boonies.
  .
• "Combined-statistical area" is the broadest definition as covered by the US government. It also includes entire counties, and covers adjacent metropolitan and micropolitan areas. In the context of this region, places like College Station, El Campo, and Huntsville are actually counted as "micro areas" in addition to the large " Greater Houston Metro Area". The territory covered is similar to the scope of the HGX NWS office coverage.
  .
• A possible broadest definition would be "megapolis/megaregion". This is basically a group of metropolitan areas perceived as one unit given similarities in region, transport, etc so on. However, it does not have its own government (OMB) definition (hence why I mentioned "possible). An example of megaregion would be "BosWash corridor" in reference to Boston, NYC, Philly, and DC" or "Texas Triangle" in reference to Dallas, Austin, San Antonio, and Houston.

In other words, from narrowest to broadest:

• city proper
• urban area
• metro area
• combined-statistical area
• megapolis/megaregion

https://www.jetpunk.com/users/wildkratt ... urban-area

[user:null]

Plus the suburbs are blocked from the wind just like anything inside of Beltway 8 or inside of 610 would be, which was my point to begin with.

It would be interesting to see the impact that vegetation (especially tree coverage) has on the perceived windiness. For instance, the comparison of your Wharton/El Campo location to, say, Cut and Shoot (as well as other similar small towns in the nearby Piney Woods forested areas of Greater Houston).

[Cromagnum]

All these clouds and humidity and not a drop of rain. I need my fertilizer to soak in and don't want to start dragging the hose around already.

[Cpv17]

All these clouds and humidity and not a drop of rain. I need my fertilizer to soak in and don't want to start dragging the hose around already.

The humidity is pretty much gone now that the front has passed. Tomorrow is a chance for rain. Don’t expect much though.

[user:null]

So many acres of land being absolutely obliterated by the wild fires, and we arent even close to summer yet, i really cant blame folks for wanting to move away from texas , precipitation is going to be a big problem in the months ahead, not sure how many more summers I can endure here

Maybe lol, but ive just about had it with summers here, i cant take another 2-3 week stretch of 100+ degree weather and wild fires becoming frequent problems

Yeah, prolonged hot droughts/dry periods are just as useless to me as winter freezes (if not more so).

Cpv17 posted forecasts in the other threads that show wetter solutions for the upcoming Texas summer. Really hoping that verifies: if nothing else, I want to see the exact mechanisms, teleconnections, phases, etc whatever that determines whether we have nicer summers with more frequent storms versus the problematic back-to-back 100°F+ temps that you mention.

[Stratton20]

user:null i unfortunately think the only way we are going to see widespread rain this summer is via the tropics, and thats looking like a very active season potentially, i hate the blast furnace weather, but also hoping this isnt the year that we get slammed by a strong hurricane either

[Cpv17]

user:null i unfortunately think the only way we are going to see widespread rain this summer is via the tropics, and thats looking like a very active season potentially, i hate the blast furnace weather, but also hoping this isnt the year that we get slammed by a strong hurricane either

Hopefully if we get hit by anything it’s nothing more than a cat 2 and we get widespread rain from it but no major flooding. Wishful thinking probably lol