Re: February 2024
Posted: Thu Feb 22, 2024 9:43 am
000
FXUS64 KHGX 220952
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
...New CLIMATE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Today will be a battle between WAA and cloud cover. LL flow will
become more SW today ahead of an approaching cold front. WAA will
be particularly robust aloft (950-850 mb). There is pretty good
agreement among the guidance that temps in the 950 to 850 mb
layer will approach, and potentially surpass, 20C today. The
question is, how much mixing will be limited by LL clouds? Also
important will be the duration of this cloud cover. This has
significant implications on our afternoon high temperatures today.
Models like the NAM show a full scale decoupling from WAA aloft,
keeping afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s. This seems highly
unrealistic. But much of the global guidance is only a little
warmer in the low/mid 70s. For our forecast, we continue to lean
towards temperatures overperforming once again today, using a
blend of MOS and 75th percentile NBM. This yields afternoon high
temperatures ranging from the low/mid 80s across the Brazos Valley
to around 80 in Houston and low/mid 70s at the coast. Increased
coupling could boost temperatures several degrees warmer than
forecast while a more resilient decoupling could keep temps
several degrees cooler. It`s usually a better bet to go warmer in
these pre-FROPA WAA scenarios which is why we are forecasting
temps to be on the toasty side. Couldn`t rule out a rogue shower
or sprinkle today. But capping due to the aforementioned WAA aloft
will keep any shower shallow and isolated.
The front pushes through tonight with falling dew points and
temperatures in its wake. Overnight lows are expected to fall
mostly in the 50s. Friday is looking very nice with sunshine,
a gusty northwest breeze, and afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Drier air and clear skies will allow temps to fall quickly Friday
night, with most areas away from the coast and outside the core
of the urban heat island falling into the 40s (low 50s in the
urban core and on the coast).
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Surface high pressure over the area on Saturday will move eastward
and out into the Gulf on Saturday night and Sunday. The weekend will
be quiet with high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday in the 70s
(could get close to 80 on Sunday) while lows Saturday night in the
40s/50s warm into the 50s/60s Sunday night. With the high off to our
east, south winds come back to the area with elevated/gusty
conditions on Sunday under a tightening pressure gradient. These
winds/gusts persist into Monday and Tuesday resulting in a
continuing warming trend (highs on Monday and Tuesday in the low to
mid 80s and lows in the 60s). Southwest to west winds develop on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, and if the timing of the
front holds off until late in the day we could see highs well into
the 80s. At this time, do not see much rain with this next system/
front as it moves across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This front will cool the area back down closer to normal
temperatures on Thursday (lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s).
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024
Breezy southerly winds should continue overnight as MVFR CIGS fill
in across SE Texas through the early morning hours of Thursday.
CIGS begin to lift after sunrise with VFR conditions returning
during the afternoon. A dry cold front should push across the
region Thursday night with light to moderate northerly winds
developing in its wake.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Winds will weaken somewhat and become more southwesterly today.
Despite lower winds, Small Craft Advisory level seas could linger
through midday offshore (20-60 NM from the coast). A weak cold
front will push offshore tonight. It is worth mentioning that some
model guidance suggest there could be a brief period of sea fog
immediately ahead of the front this evening. For now, we have left
fog out of the forecast due to the anticipated unfavorable
southwest winds. That being said, we will monitor the fog threat
closely. A period of moderate to strong north to north- northwest
winds is expected on Friday behind a cold front. Winds could
briefly reach Small Craft levels offshore Friday morning with
caution flags likely. Winds quickly shift back to an onshore flow
regime over the weekend. Gradually increasing onshore flow and
building seas are expected early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Here is some February rainfall information for our five major
climate sites.
At CLL, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 3.08 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.90 inches.
At IAH, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 1.90 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.97 inches.
At HOU, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 1.84 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.85 inches.
At GLS, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 2.85 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.90 inches.
At PSX, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 2.55 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 1.89 inches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 52 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 56 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 59 69 55 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 220952
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
352 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
...New CLIMATE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Today will be a battle between WAA and cloud cover. LL flow will
become more SW today ahead of an approaching cold front. WAA will
be particularly robust aloft (950-850 mb). There is pretty good
agreement among the guidance that temps in the 950 to 850 mb
layer will approach, and potentially surpass, 20C today. The
question is, how much mixing will be limited by LL clouds? Also
important will be the duration of this cloud cover. This has
significant implications on our afternoon high temperatures today.
Models like the NAM show a full scale decoupling from WAA aloft,
keeping afternoon temperatures in the upper 60s. This seems highly
unrealistic. But much of the global guidance is only a little
warmer in the low/mid 70s. For our forecast, we continue to lean
towards temperatures overperforming once again today, using a
blend of MOS and 75th percentile NBM. This yields afternoon high
temperatures ranging from the low/mid 80s across the Brazos Valley
to around 80 in Houston and low/mid 70s at the coast. Increased
coupling could boost temperatures several degrees warmer than
forecast while a more resilient decoupling could keep temps
several degrees cooler. It`s usually a better bet to go warmer in
these pre-FROPA WAA scenarios which is why we are forecasting
temps to be on the toasty side. Couldn`t rule out a rogue shower
or sprinkle today. But capping due to the aforementioned WAA aloft
will keep any shower shallow and isolated.
The front pushes through tonight with falling dew points and
temperatures in its wake. Overnight lows are expected to fall
mostly in the 50s. Friday is looking very nice with sunshine,
a gusty northwest breeze, and afternoon temperatures in the 70s.
Drier air and clear skies will allow temps to fall quickly Friday
night, with most areas away from the coast and outside the core
of the urban heat island falling into the 40s (low 50s in the
urban core and on the coast).
Self
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Surface high pressure over the area on Saturday will move eastward
and out into the Gulf on Saturday night and Sunday. The weekend will
be quiet with high temperatures both Saturday and Sunday in the 70s
(could get close to 80 on Sunday) while lows Saturday night in the
40s/50s warm into the 50s/60s Sunday night. With the high off to our
east, south winds come back to the area with elevated/gusty
conditions on Sunday under a tightening pressure gradient. These
winds/gusts persist into Monday and Tuesday resulting in a
continuing warming trend (highs on Monday and Tuesday in the low to
mid 80s and lows in the 60s). Southwest to west winds develop on
Wednesday ahead of the next cold front, and if the timing of the
front holds off until late in the day we could see highs well into
the 80s. At this time, do not see much rain with this next system/
front as it moves across the area late Wednesday into Wednesday
night. This front will cool the area back down closer to normal
temperatures on Thursday (lows in the 50s and highs in the 60s).
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(06Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1105 PM CST Wed Feb 21 2024
Breezy southerly winds should continue overnight as MVFR CIGS fill
in across SE Texas through the early morning hours of Thursday.
CIGS begin to lift after sunrise with VFR conditions returning
during the afternoon. A dry cold front should push across the
region Thursday night with light to moderate northerly winds
developing in its wake.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 142 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Winds will weaken somewhat and become more southwesterly today.
Despite lower winds, Small Craft Advisory level seas could linger
through midday offshore (20-60 NM from the coast). A weak cold
front will push offshore tonight. It is worth mentioning that some
model guidance suggest there could be a brief period of sea fog
immediately ahead of the front this evening. For now, we have left
fog out of the forecast due to the anticipated unfavorable
southwest winds. That being said, we will monitor the fog threat
closely. A period of moderate to strong north to north- northwest
winds is expected on Friday behind a cold front. Winds could
briefly reach Small Craft levels offshore Friday morning with
caution flags likely. Winds quickly shift back to an onshore flow
regime over the weekend. Gradually increasing onshore flow and
building seas are expected early next week.
&&
.CLIMATE...
Issued at 350 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2024
Here is some February rainfall information for our five major
climate sites.
At CLL, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 3.08 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.90 inches.
At IAH, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 1.90 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.97 inches.
At HOU, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 1.84 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.85 inches.
At GLS, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 2.85 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 2.90 inches.
At PSX, February`s rain total (thru the 21st) is 2.55 inches. Normal
rainfall for the entire month is 1.89 inches.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 84 52 72 46 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 81 56 75 49 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 74 59 69 55 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 6 AM CST early this
morning for GMZ330-335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM CST this morning for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Self