November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[srainhoutx]

SPC AC 311728

DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1228 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE TX HILL
COUNTRY AND TX COASTAL PLAINS...

...SRN PLAINS...
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SEWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TONIGHT
AND INTO THE SRN PLAINS MONDAY. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE
TROUGH...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN NWD ONTO THE TX COASTAL
PLAIN AND INTO THE ARKLATEX MONDAY AFTERNOON WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS
SHOULD REACH THE MID 60S TO LOWER 70S F WITH MODERATE INSTABILITY
DEVELOPING BY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN CNTRL AND EAST TX BY
MONDAY AT 21Z SHOW MLCAPE VALUES IN THE 1500 TO 2500 J/KG RANGE WITH
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR PROFILES MAINLY DUE TO DIRECTIONAL SHEAR
IN THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS. THIS ENVIRONMENT SHOULD SUPPORT AT LEAST A
MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT AS STORMS INITIATE ALONG A COLD FRONT MOVING
SEWD ACROSS THE REGION. THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS ARE IN AGREEMENT
DEVELOPING NUMEROUS STORMS FROM THE TX HILL COUNTRY NEWD INTO THE
ARKLATEX WITH THIS ACTIVITY MOVING EWD ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN
AND INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
PERIOD. IN SPITE OF WHAT COULD BE A LATE INITIATION...A SEVERE
THREAT COULD EXIST IN THE TX COASTAL PLAIN AND TX HILL COUNTRY
MONDAY EVENING AS THE EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET ROUNDS THE BASE
OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. BECAUSE OF THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER SHEAR
MONDAY EVENING...A FEW STORMS COULD ROTATE RESULTING IN A HAIL AND
WIND DAMAGE THREAT. FOR THIS REASON...HAVE ADDED A SLIGHT RISK FROM
AROUND SAN ANTONIO ENEWD TO THE HOUSTON AND COLLEGE STATION AREAS.
FURTHER TO THE EAST NORTHEAST ACROSS THE ARKLATEX AND WRN LA...THE
SEVERE THREAT SHOULD REMAIN MARGINAL MAINLY DUE TO WEAKER DEEP LAYER
SHEAR.

..BROYLES.. 10/31/2010

CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
CURRENT UTC TIME: 1733Z (12:33PM), RELOAD THIS PAGE TO UPDATE THE TIME

Link to outlook.
http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day2otlk.html

It (The rain/storms) has been a long time coming....over 40 days now for me...

[msanwxfan]

Tuesday - high chance of rain and after cold front pushes that night into the morning, rain will linger and high pressure will continue to push cold air south. According to 12 GFS, we could see well below normal temps after tuesday, and its confident of that.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be a Monday night to early Tuesday morning storm. Could get very rough that time.

[srainhoutx]

Our long boring weather pattern is about to make a 180. It is becoming a bit clearer that we may have some severe weather ahead from Monday afternoon/evening until Tuesday morning across the area. Folks need to pay close attention since it has been a while for this type of set up. Our severe weather folks will likely be very active over the next 36-40 hours.

FXUS64 KHGX 312048
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
348 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

.DISCUSSION...

WARMER AFTERNOONS AND MILDER EVENINGS IN STORE FOR US THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS REGION FALLS WITHIN THE WARM SECTOR OF AN
APPROACHING LATE MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY COLD FROPA. MODEL
RUNS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE MESSAGE OF LIKELY EARLY WEEK
RAIN CHANCES...WITH A LATE WEEK COOL DOWN. IN THE SHORT TERM...A
PLEASANT HALLOWEEN EVENING AS EARLY EVENING TEMPERATURES FALL INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER A SOUTHERLY BREEZE. THERE IS A HIGHER
CHANCE OF EARLY MONDAY MORNING PATCHY DENSE FOG UNDER A DEVELOPING
MID-LAYER STRATUS DECK. SOUTHERN MOISTURE ADVECTION WILL MOISTEN
UP THE LOWER COLUMN THROUGH TOMORROW WITH HIGHEST PWATS OF 1.5
INCHES OVER THE NEARSHORE WATERS BY 00Z TUESDAY. OF COURSE...THIS
SUPPORTS A THETA E RIDGE AXIS RESIDING PARALLEL TO THE COASTLINE.
THUS...EXPECTING INCREASING PROBS OF UNDER-THE-CAP RAIN SHOWERS
FROM LATE MONDAY MORNING ONWARD WITH MODEST OFFSHORE TO LOWER 1/3 CWA
RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE DAY. A DEEPENING WESTERN PLAINS TROUGH WILL
DIG DOWN OVER TEXAS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. THE BULK OF THE ENERGY
WILL BE FOCUSED OVER CENTRAL AND EASTERN TEXAS AS WE HAVE FALLEN UNDER
A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER PER THE LATEST SPC OUTLOOK.

ALL OF THE PARAMETERS ARE THERE FOR AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FROM
LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY MORNING HOURS.
THE BEST UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS FALL OVER SE TX FROM AROUND MIDNIGHT
TUESDAY ON THROUGH 12Z...SIGNALING THAT ANY MCS OR SQUALL LINE
THAT FORMS OVER THE NORTHERN TEXAS/HILL COUNTRY WILL BE AFFECTING US
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. LL SHEAR PROFILES ARE WEAK WITH DECENT
CAPE AND LOWER WET BULBS TO INDICATE THE MAIN THREATS WILL BE WIND
AND HAIL. A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH...OR DOWNSTREAM GUST FRONT...TO
INITIATE FAR NORTHERN CONVECTION SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH THE
MAIN COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY REACHING THE COAST SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
WITH THE MAIN FRONT SLOWING AS IT REACHES THE COAST...ALONG WITH A
GOOD PROBABILITY OF A QUASI-LINER BROKEN LINE TRACKING SOUTHEAST
ACROSS THE FA...HAVE ADDED HEAVY RAIN TO THE ISOLATED SEVERE STORM
THREAT (FOR OUR COASTAL/SE`ERN COUNTIES) TUESDAY MORNING. THE 5H
LOW TO BECOME CUT-OFF AND SLIDE SOUTH RIGHT OVER US LATE TUESDAY
INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. A WESTERN DRY SLOT AROUND THE BACKSIDE OF
THIS FEATURE MAY SHUT OFF WESTERN FA RAIN/THUNDER TUESDAY AFTERNOON/
EVENING...BUT THE PRESENCE OF THE LOW ATOP OF THE CWA WILL KEEP
AT LEAST 30-40 POPS ALIVE THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS WILL
MAKE FOR A TRICKY MID-WEEK TEMPERATURE FORECAST AS CAA...IN COMBO
WITH A WET GROUND...INTERMITTENT SHOWERS..AND OVERCAST SKIES APPEAR
TO HAVE WEDNESDAY`S AFTERNOON INTERIOR TEMPERATURES STRUGGLING TO
ACHIEVE THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S.

AS THE LOW/TROUGH AXIS TRAVELS EAST AND OVER THE NORTHERN GULF ON
THURSDAY...THERE MAY BE ENOUGH UPSLOPE ALONG ITS BACKSIDE TO ALLOW
FOR PERSISTENT WIDELY-SCATTERED SHOWERS PRIMARILY OVER THE WESTERN
HALF OF THE FA. TOO DIFFICULT TO PEG WHERE WED-THU RAIN WILL FALL
AS IT IS TRULY DEPENDENT UPON THE LOW`S EVENTUAL EASTERN PROGRESSION
...BUT IT APPEARS WHAT PRECIPS OUT WILL BE LIGHT THROUGH AS LATE
AS THURSDAY MORNING. AS THE STRONG REINFORCING SURFACE HIGH EXPANDS
SOUTH OUT OF THE LEEWARDS...MORE EFFICIENT CAA WILL KICK IN AND
PRODUCE STRONG 20-25 KT NORTHERLY WINDS. WED AND THUR`S OFFSHORE
WINDS WILL BE NEAR GALE FORCE IN GUSTS AS A COOLER DRY AIR MASS
OVERRUNS WARMER SHELF WATERS...IN TANDEM WITH THE VERY TIGHT WEST-
TO-EAST SYNOPTIC GRADIENT. REGIONAL CONDITIONS WILL STABILIZE/IMPROVE
THROUGH FRIDAY...WITH A WIDER DIURNAL TEMPERATURE RANGE. AVERAGE
UPPER 60/LOWER 70S MAX TEMPS WITH CHILLER NIGHTS IN THE FAR INLAND
MIDDLE 30S TO MIDDLE 40S CLOSER TO THE COAST BY SUNRISE SATURDAY
MORNING. 31

[Mr. T]

Also of note, 12z Euro and CMC indicate that 850 temps will near 0C by week's end with a cold canadian high settling overhead. If this is to occur, we'll likely see our first taste of widespread 30s by the end of the week with freezing temps possible for our northern counties

[biggerbyte]

WOW!!! Just WOW. Exciting possibilities and welcome change. Just in time before everything dies.

[Mr. T]

WOW!!! Just WOW. Exciting possibilities and welcome change. Just in time before everything dies.

What's with all these words in the forecast? I can't remember what any of this means...

Monday Night...Rain likely and isolated thunderstorms. Some thunderstorms may be severe. Lows in the mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph in the evening becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of rain 60 percent in the evening increasing to 70 percent after midnight.

Tuesday...Mostly cloudy with rain likely and isolated thunderstorms in the morning...then partly cloudy with a chance of showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon. Some thunderstorms may be severe in the morning. Cooler. Highs in the lower 70s. Northwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 60 percent in the morning decreasing to 50 percent in the afternoon.

[biggerbyte]

Gosh!!!! I don't know, T.. Must be some new toy the weather kids are playing with. Lol

I'm do done with this dry weather and hurricane season. I'm sure many in this forum are. Maybe we get to have some fun with fall, and maybe winter to some degree. I'd settle for a snow flame or ice pellet or two. Anything!!! You?

[Andrew]

Looks like svrwx0503 will be able to put up his radar in the next couple days.

Very nice:



From the Sounding Plots it looks like on the 4th things will really clear up:

http://rucsoundings.noaa.gov/plot_sound ... art=latest

[srainhoutx]

Corpus has issued a SWS regarding the severe weather threat and cold front...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
321 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

TXZ229>234-239>247-010500-
LA SALLE-MCMULLEN-LIVE OAK-BEE-GOLIAD-VICTORIA-WEBB-DUVAL-
JIM WELLS-KLEBERG-NUECES-SAN PATRICIO-ARANSAS-REFUGIO-CALHOUN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...COTULLA...CALLIHAM...CROSS...
LOMA ALTA...TILDEN...GEORGE WEST...THREE RIVERS...BEEVILLE...
GOLIAD...VICTORIA...LAREDO...FREER...BENAVIDES...SAN DIEGO...
ALICE...ORANGE GROVE...KINGSVILLE...CORPUS CHRISTI...PORTLAND...
INGLESIDE...ARANSAS PASS...SINTON...MATHIS...ROCKPORT...REFUGIO...
WOODSBORO...PORT LAVACA
321 PM CDT SUN OCT 31 2010

...SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT
AHEAD AND ALONG A STRONG COLD FRONT...

THE COMBINATION OF INCREASING MOISTURE...A POTENT UPPER LEVEL LOW
AND AN UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON MONDAY ALONG THE SEA BREEZE...MAINLY ACROSS THE
VICTORIA CROSSROADS. SOME OF THESE STORMS MAY BE STRONG WITH GUSTY
WINDS AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING. THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL
INCREASE MONDAY NIGHT AS A STRONG COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH SOUTH
TEXAS. THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ARE EXPECTED TO BE
STRONG WITH A FEW STORMS POSSIBLY BECOMING SEVERE...WITH DAMAGING
WIND AND LARGE HAIL. THE COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED THUNDERSTORMS
WILL RAPIDLY MOVE SOUTH AND MOVE OFF THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. STRONG NORTH WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES CAN BE
EXPECTED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.

[biggerbyte]

Bring it on.....

[Mr. T]

1240 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/WRN LA SWWD TO S
TX...

...S THROUGH E TX INTO WRN LA...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN OK SWWD TO THE
TX BIG BEND REGION AT 12Z TODAY. THIS WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
EWD/SEWD TODAY REACHING E TX AND ARCING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.

MOIST SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL AID IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE HEATING OCCURS BENEATH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A LEAD IMPULSE AND INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS WITH
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER E TX/WRN LA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL THEN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE EXIT
REGION OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATTENDANT
DIGGING TROUGH. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN...ORGANIZED STORMS/SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM PARTS OF E TX/SWRN LA TO THE MIDDLE TX
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONGER...ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

BACKING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO TX WILL RESULT IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BECOMING ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LINEAR WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE TX COAST.


tl;dr version: Small threat of tornadoes in the late evening switching to a slight wind damage threat during the overnight period as the cold front and associated squall line moves through SE TX. Hopefully we all get a good dose of rain

[Andrew]

[srainhoutx]

Very information forecast from HGX this morning....enjoy the warmth today...


FXUS64 KHGX 010919 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
416 AM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE
LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE AREA (HIGHEST BEING 74 AT
PSX)...AND MID TO UPPER 60S NRN ZONES. GPSMET DATA SHOWS PWS HAVE
REACHED 1.4-1.5 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. KHGX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET IS PRESENT. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER INLAND
AREAS...THIS WILL MIX TO A CU LAYER BY LATE MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS THIS AFTN. ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO SPOTS WILL HIT 90...AN
EXTREME RARITY IN NOVEMBER. SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES/OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS OVER INLAND ZONES WILL MOISTEN UP BY THIS
AFTN (PWS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.6 INCHES). CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL RUN
IN THE MID 80S WITH ONLY WEAK CAPPING. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
THIS AFTN FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
SRN HALF WHERE A SEABREEZE COULD HELP TO FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

BIG CHANGES TAKE PLACE AT THE UPPER LEVELS BY TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING DIGS SOUTH AND AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER LOW
OVER NORTH TX. COLD FRONT IS ALREADY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX
AND WILL APPROACH OUR NRN ZONES LATE AFTN. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIS OF -4 TO -6. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS THE FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF SE TX IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 1. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS AS SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE WEAK. CURRENT
THINKING IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. HAVE BLANKETED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
MENTION OF SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY SE HALF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS BENEFICIAL RAIN
AND THE VERY HIGH FFG VALUES WILL HOLD OFF ON PLACING HEAVY RAIN
IN FCST. FRONT WILL REACH COASTAL WATERS/FAR ERN ZONES BY 12Z
TUESDAY. TSRA SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING. MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE TEMPORARILY DRY SLOTTED TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD BE PRESENT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE 70S...EXCEPT THE NE ZONES WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY.

UPPER LOW WILL PUSH DIRECTLY SOUTH OVER SE TX TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WRN GULF WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAINLY
ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN ZONES BY TUE EVENING AND
AREA WIDE BY WED MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO FILL IN WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN LASTING THROUGH WED EVENING. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY COULD STAY IN
THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIR
WILL REACH THE AREA THU MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
CLEARING AND DRYING OF THE AIRMASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE COOL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
4-7C AND 1030 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S LIKELY FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY:
COLLEGE STATION - 89/1920
HOUSTON/IAH - 89/1978
HOUSTON/HOU - 90/1934
GALVESTON - 84/1998

35

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM
THE ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX...

...ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CO WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL
TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ERN OK TO CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD THE TX COAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NW
GULF COAST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE
LOW-MID 70S.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONTINUED MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT THE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
AND SW LA. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FARTHER NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE ARKLATEX SWD INTO ERN AND S CENTRAL
TX WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH
THAT MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 1500-2500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND
WHICH WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. MODERATE MLCAPE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF STORM INTERACTIONS AND A MORE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE.

..THOMPSON/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/01/2010

[srainhoutx]

Keeping an eye on the Upper Level energy diving SE in Colorado this morning. That feature will become our Upper Low for Tuesday...

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BREAK APART
BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM REACHES WEST TEXAS. THE UPPER
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER STRONG...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
SOUTH TEXAS WILL STILL BE HOT TODAY...BY MID WEEK HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN 5 TO 15 BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY.

[svrwx0503]

Currently scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along the coast and just off shore where the greatest moisture and instability currently reside. Some isolated showers have been popping up over the last hour further inland across the coastal and central zones as the surface starts to warm. Look for this scattered activity to persist and develop further inland as we go throughout the morning and into the afternoon hours. Everything continues to be on track for an active evening and overnight period as the front currently up across north Texas moves south and runs into a good amount of moisture and instability.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be an interesting night for us.

[texoz]

Did a warm front move up through Central Texas in the middle of the night? There was no wind shift.

Temps went UP from 59 degrees at 11pm to 68 degrees after midnight? Was 71 at sunrise. Seems like an odd temp change.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KAUS.html