November Weather Discussion. Rollercoaster Pattern.

[biggerbyte]

Bring it on.....

[Mr. T]

1240 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TX/WRN LA SWWD TO S
TX...

...S THROUGH E TX INTO WRN LA...
MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT SHOWING A MID-UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
AMPLIFYING SEWD FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES TO SRN PLAINS THIS FORECAST
PERIOD AS UPSTREAM HEIGHTS RISE ACROSS THE WRN STATES. IN THE LOW
LEVELS...A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM ERN OK SWWD TO THE
TX BIG BEND REGION AT 12Z TODAY. THIS WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY WILL MOVE
EWD/SEWD TODAY REACHING E TX AND ARCING INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX BY
LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS BOUNDARY
SHOULD MOVE OFF THE TX COAST AROUND 12Z TUESDAY.

MOIST SSWLY LOW LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAIN TO LOWER MS
VALLEY WILL AID IN AIR MASS DESTABILIZATION THROUGH THE DAY AS
SURFACE HEATING OCCURS BENEATH COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES WITH
THE APPROACH OF THE DIGGING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. MLCAPE IS EXPECTED TO
RANGE FROM 1500-2000 J/KG.

FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH A LEAD IMPULSE AND INITIAL HEIGHT FALLS WITH
PRIMARY UPPER TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT CONVECTION/TSTM
DEVELOPMENT INITIALLY OVER E TX/WRN LA...POSSIBLY AS EARLY AS
MID-LATE AFTERNOON. TSTMS WILL THEN DEVELOP SWWD ALONG THE COLD
FRONT INTO SOUTH CENTRAL TX DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS THE EXIT
REGION OF STRONGER MIDLEVEL FLOW ROUNDS THE BASE OF THE ATTENDANT
DIGGING TROUGH. GIVEN DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE BULK
SHEAR INCREASING TO 35-40 KT BY LATE AFTERNOON AS MID-UPPER LEVEL
WINDS STRENGTHEN...ORGANIZED STORMS/SOME SUPERCELLS WILL BECOME MORE
LIKELY FROM THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. INITIAL ACTIVITY
ALONG THE COLD FRONT AND ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR WILL HAVE A
POTENTIAL FOR HAIL AND A TORNADO OR TWO. THE GREATEST TORNADO
THREAT SHOULD EXIST FROM PARTS OF E TX/SWRN LA TO THE MIDDLE TX
COAST WHERE LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY STRONGER...ENHANCING
LOW LEVEL SHEAR.

BACKING MID-UPPER LEVEL WINDS MONDAY EVENING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AS
THE CENTRAL ROCKIES CONTINUES TO DIG SEWD INTO TX WILL RESULT IN
DEEP LAYER SHEAR VECTORS BECOMING ORIENTED PARALLEL TO THE COLD
FRONT. THIS SUGGESTS ACTIVITY SHOULD BECOME LINEAR WITH THE
GREATEST THREAT BEING STRONGER WIND GUSTS AS THE FRONT APPROACHES
THE TX COAST.


tl;dr version: Small threat of tornadoes in the late evening switching to a slight wind damage threat during the overnight period as the cold front and associated squall line moves through SE TX. Hopefully we all get a good dose of rain

[Andrew]

[srainhoutx]

Very information forecast from HGX this morning....enjoy the warmth today...


FXUS64 KHGX 010919 CCA
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
416 AM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...
ONSHORE FLOW RESULTING IN A RATHER IMPRESSIVE RETURN OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE THIS MORNING. SFC DEWPOINTS HAVE ALREADY REACHED THE
LOW/MID 70S ACROSS THE SRN THIRD OF THE AREA (HIGHEST BEING 74 AT
PSX)...AND MID TO UPPER 60S NRN ZONES. GPSMET DATA SHOWS PWS HAVE
REACHED 1.4-1.5 INCHES ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. KHGX RADAR SHOWS
SCATTERED SHRA ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS WHERE A WEAK LOW LEVEL
JET IS PRESENT. STRATUS AND PATCHY FOG HAS FORMED OVER INLAND
AREAS...THIS WILL MIX TO A CU LAYER BY LATE MORNING. TODAY WILL BE
AN UNSEASONABLY WARM AND HUMID DAY ACROSS THE AREA. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS TEMPS WILL FLIRT WITH RECORDS THIS AFTN. ITS
NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT ONE OR TWO SPOTS WILL HIT 90...AN
EXTREME RARITY IN NOVEMBER. SHOWER ACTIVITY ALONG THE COASTAL
ZONES/OFFSHORE WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. GFS BUFR
SOUNDINGS SHOW AIRMASS OVER INLAND ZONES WILL MOISTEN UP BY THIS
AFTN (PWS INCREASE TO 1.5-1.6 INCHES). CONVECTIVE TEMPS WILL RUN
IN THE MID 80S WITH ONLY WEAK CAPPING. WILL KEEP 20-30 POPS GOING
THIS AFTN FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT. BEST COVERAGE IS EXPECTED
SRN HALF WHERE A SEABREEZE COULD HELP TO FOCUS TSRA DEVELOPMENT.

BIG CHANGES TAKE PLACE AT THE UPPER LEVELS BY TONIGHT AS SHORTWAVE
CURRENTLY OVER WYOMING DIGS SOUTH AND AMPLIFIES INTO AN UPPER LOW
OVER NORTH TX. COLD FRONT IS ALREADY LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL TX
AND WILL APPROACH OUR NRN ZONES LATE AFTN. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
ALLOW THE AIRMASS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TO BECOME MODERATELY
UNSTABLE WITH CAPES OF 1500-2500 J/KG AND LIS OF -4 TO -6. EXPECT
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS TSRA TO DEVELOP EARLY THIS EVENING AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS AS THE FRONT TRACKS
THROUGH THE AREA. SPC HAS PLACED ALL OF SE TX IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
DAY 1. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREATS APPEAR TO BE LARGE HAIL AND
DOWNBURST WINDS AS SHEAR PROFILES REMAIN QUITE WEAK. CURRENT
THINKING IS THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL HOLD OFF UNTIL
AFTER 00Z. HAVE BLANKETED LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
MENTION OF SEVERE. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS WILL BE POSSIBLE TONIGHT
ESPECIALLY SE HALF. HOWEVER...GIVEN THAT THIS IS BENEFICIAL RAIN
AND THE VERY HIGH FFG VALUES WILL HOLD OFF ON PLACING HEAVY RAIN
IN FCST. FRONT WILL REACH COASTAL WATERS/FAR ERN ZONES BY 12Z
TUESDAY. TSRA SHOULD EXIT THE AREA BY MID MORNING. MOST OF THE CWA
WILL BE TEMPORARILY DRY SLOTTED TUESDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
ENOUGH CLEARING SHOULD BE PRESENT TO ALLOW TEMPS TO WARM BACK INTO
THE 70S...EXCEPT THE NE ZONES WHERE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS COULD
PERSIST MOST OF THE DAY.

UPPER LOW WILL PUSH DIRECTLY SOUTH OVER SE TX TUE NIGHT AND ACROSS
THE WRN GULF WEDNESDAY/WED NIGHT. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE MAINLY
ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA.
ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL DEVELOP OVER NRN ZONES BY TUE EVENING AND
AREA WIDE BY WED MORNING. EXPECT STRATUS TO FILL IN WITH AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN LASTING THROUGH WED EVENING. THE CLOUDS AND RAIN WILL
RESULT IN SMALL DIURNAL RANGE. TEMPS ON WEDNESDAY COULD STAY IN
THE 50S IN SOME AREAS. A STRONGER SURGE OF COLD/DRY CANADIAN AIR
WILL REACH THE AREA THU MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN RAPID
CLEARING AND DRYING OF THE AIRMASS FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. EXPECT
BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS THURSDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. TEMPS
WILL BE QUITE COOL THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY AS 850 MB TEMPS DROP TO
4-7C AND 1030 MB SFC HIGH BUILDS SOUTH INTO THE AREA. FRIDAY NIGHT
LOOKS LIKE THE COLDEST NIGHT WITH 30S TO LOWER 40S LIKELY FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS.

RECORD HIGHS FOR TODAY:
COLLEGE STATION - 89/1920
HOUSTON/IAH - 89/1978
HOUSTON/HOU - 90/1934
GALVESTON - 84/1998

35

[srainhoutx]

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0735 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 011300Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT FROM
THE ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX...

...ARKLATEX TO S CENTRAL TX LATE THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT...
A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER CO WILL DIG SEWD TOWARD CENTRAL
TX BY THE END OF THE PERIOD...IN RESPONSE TO UPSTREAM HEIGHT RISES
OVER THE NRN ROCKIES TODAY. A DEVELOPING COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM
ERN OK TO CENTRAL TX WILL MOVE SLOWLY SEWD TODAY...AND THEN BEGIN TO
ACCELERATE SEWD TOWARD THE TX COAST TONIGHT IN RESPONSE TO WEAK
CYCLOGENESIS NEAR THE TX/LA BORDER. IN ADVANCE OF THE
FRONT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS ALREADY UNDERWAY ACROSS THE NW
GULF COAST WHERE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS HAVE INCREASED TO THE
LOW-MID 70S.

WEAK LOW-LEVEL WAA AND CONTINUED MOISTENING WILL SUPPORT THE GRADUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TODAY ACROSS THE UPPER TX COAST
AND SW LA. MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
FARTHER NW LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AS ASCENT DOWNSTREAM FROM THE
AMPLIFYING MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVERSPREADS THE SURFACE FRONT. THE
PRE-FRONTAL ENVIRONMENT FROM THE ARKLATEX SWD INTO ERN AND S CENTRAL
TX WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE WITH DAYTIME HEATING...SUCH
THAT MLCAPE SHOULD REACH 1500-2500 J/KG. DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR
IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL
CLUSTERS AND A FEW SUPERCELLS...WITHIN A LARGER CONVECTIVE BAND
WHICH WILL EVOLVE LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ALONG THE COLD
FRONT. MODERATE MLCAPE...MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AOA 7 C/KM AND
RELATIVELY WEAK LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGEST THAT LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN THREAT THIS EVENING...WHILE DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN
THREAT OVERNIGHT AS A RESULT OF STORM INTERACTIONS AND A MORE LINEAR
CONVECTIVE MODE.

..THOMPSON/STOPPKOTTE.. 11/01/2010

[srainhoutx]

Keeping an eye on the Upper Level energy diving SE in Colorado this morning. That feature will become our Upper Low for Tuesday...

[srainhoutx]

HPC:

LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH UPPER LEVEL ENERGY CURRENTLY
DROPPING SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL BREAK APART
BY THIS EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM REACHES WEST TEXAS. THE UPPER
ENERGY IS FORECAST TO BE RATHER STRONG...DEEPENING INTO A CLOSED
LOW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT WHICH WILL DROP A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH
TEXAS AND PORTIONS OF LOUISIANA. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT
SOUTH TEXAS WILL STILL BE HOT TODAY...BY MID WEEK HIGH
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE FALLEN 5 TO 15 BELOW AVERAGE FOR
THE EASTERN HALF OF TEXAS INTO LOUISIANA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FLOW AROUND THE LOW WILL DRAW GULF MOISTURE
NORTHWARD ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY WHICH WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT FOR HEAVY RAIN BEGINNING THIS
EVENING AND LASTING INTO WEDNESDAY.

[svrwx0503]

Currently scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing along the coast and just off shore where the greatest moisture and instability currently reside. Some isolated showers have been popping up over the last hour further inland across the coastal and central zones as the surface starts to warm. Look for this scattered activity to persist and develop further inland as we go throughout the morning and into the afternoon hours. Everything continues to be on track for an active evening and overnight period as the front currently up across north Texas moves south and runs into a good amount of moisture and instability.

[Ptarmigan]

Looks to be an interesting night for us.

[texoz]

Did a warm front move up through Central Texas in the middle of the night? There was no wind shift.

Temps went UP from 59 degrees at 11pm to 68 degrees after midnight? Was 71 at sunrise. Seems like an odd temp change.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/KAUS.html

[srainhoutx]

My guess, texoz is warm air advection kicked in for you folks in Central TX. We were cooler yesterday morning, but as southerly winds increased yesterday, dew point rose along with the temps. Last night we were much warmer than the night before. Stay safe in the Hill Country! SPC Update...

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1111 AM CDT MON NOV 01 2010

VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF EAST
TX...WESTERN AR...AND WESTERN LA...

MORNING WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A RATHER IMPRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH
DIGGING/ROTATING EASTWARD ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. A STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SOUTHWARD ACROSS TX/LA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. AHEAD OF THE FRONT SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL
WINDS HAVE TRANSPORTED RICH GULF MOISTURE BACK INTO TX/LA WITH 70 F
DEWPOINTS ALMOST AS FAR NORTH AS SHV. STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES WITH TIME COMBINED WITH PARTIAL SUNSHINE WILL YIELD AFTERNOON
MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2500 J/KG.

MOST MODEL GUIDANCE AGREES THAT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON NEAR THE TX/LA COAST. A FEW
OF THESE STORMS MAY ROTATE WITH A RISK OF HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS.
HOWEVER...THE THREAT OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS APPEARS RATHER LOW
IN THIS AREA.

LATER TODAY...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY ALONG THE COLD FRONT
OVER NORTHEAST TX AND WESTERN LA. STRONGER EFFECTIVE SHEAR AND CAPE
IN THIS AREA WILL PROMOTE MORE ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY INCREASE
IN AREAL COVERAGE THROUGH THE EVENING...BUILDING SOUTHWESTWARD ALONG
THE FRONT INTO CENTRAL TX...AND SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
GULF COAST. DESPITE INCREASING CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...THE SEVERE
THREAT WILL LIKELY WANE BY MIDNIGHT.

..HART/ROGERS.. 11/01/2010

[srainhoutx]

HGX Aviation Update gives some hints on the arrival of the front...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1227 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

.AVIATION...
EXPECT CONVECTION TO PERSIST ACROSS THE SRN TIER OF SE TX COUNTIES
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. WITH DAYTIME HEATING MAY SEE SOME
ADDITIONAL LATE AFTN DEVELOPMENT ALONG A COLUMBUS-LIVINGSTON LINE.
COLD FRONT AND UPPER TROF WILL APPROACH THIS EVENING AND EXPECT
INCREASING AREAL PRECIP COVERAGE. STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL FAVOR
SOME EMBEDDED STRONGER TSRA WITH HAIL/DOWNBURSTS BEING PRIMARY
THREAT. FRONT ITSELF SHOULD BE APPROACHING CLL TOWARD SUNSET...THE
HWY 59 CORRIDOR SHORTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT...THEN OFF THE COAST AROUND
OR SLIGHTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. EXPECT MVFR CIGS AND POST FRONTAL SHRA
TO CONTINUE FOR MOST TERMINALS INTO LATE MORNING BEFORE WE
EVENTUALLY GET DRY SLOTTED. 47

[srainhoutx]

Another very lengthy Area Forecast Discussion from HGX this afternoon. Busy night ahead folks. Stay Tuned!

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
342 PM CDT MON NOV 1 2010

.DISCUSSION...

A RETURN TO MUCH-NEEDED RAINFALL ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES...WITH
RECORD-TYING MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN THIS MONTH OF NOVEMBER.

EASTERN COLORADO SHORTWAVE ENERGY DIVING SOUTHWARD INTO THE BASE
OF A MEAN UPPER TROUGH DIGGING DOWN OVER WESTERN TEXAS. LOWER
LEVEL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COASTLINE...IN TANDEM
WITH OLD CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW...HAVE KEPT TODAY`S PRECIPITATION CONFINED
TO A RELATIVELY NARROW SW-TO-NE COASTAL/NEARSHORE BAND. ANTICIPATING
THAT ONCE THE SURFACE COLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY (CURRENTLY DRAPED ALONG
A DFW METROPLEX TO KILLEEN TO JUNCTION ARC) BEGINS TO CROSS THE
I-35 CORRIDOR LATER THIS AFTERNOON...WEST CENTRAL TEXAS CONVECTION
WILL BEGIN RIDING UP NEAR-PARALLEL TO THE ADVANCING FRONT. THIS
WILL HAVE NORTHEASTWARD MOVING CELLS TRAVELING ACROSS OUR NORTHERN
1/3RD OF THE CWA AROUND 00Z...WITH A POSSIBLE QUASI-LINEAR SQUALL
LINE (OR BETTER ORGANIZED MCS) EVOLVING AND MARCHING SOUTHEAST
TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FA DURING THE 00-06Z TIME FRAME.
PLEASE REFER TO THE HWOHGX FOR THE SPECIFICS ON RAINFALL AMOUNTS
AND THE PRIMARILY THREATS.

COLD FROPA ACROSS CWA THROUGH 06Z WITH A COASTAL EXIT BY 14-15Z
TUESDAY MORNING. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT ENOUGH DRY AIR WILL WRAP
AROUND A BROAD CUT-OFF UPPER LOW AS IT MOVES DIRECTLY OVER US
TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. MUCH UNCERTAINTY ON
AREAL COVERAGE AS IT IS ALL DEPENDENT UPON THIS LOW`S EVENTUAL
SOUTHERN JOG AND GULF EXIT...BUT THE PROBABILITIES OF MANY RECEIVING
LATE TUESDAY THROUGH LATE WEDNESDAY RAINFALL REMAIN MODERATELY HIGH.
ISENTROPIC ANALYSIS HAS MOIST AND COOL N-NE AIR RIDING UP THE 305K
THETA SURFACE IN A CYCLONIC MANNER...OR AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY
OF LOW DURING LATE TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY. WHEN 305K WINDS
FAIL TO ADVECT HIGH HUMIDITY UPWARDS...THERE WILL BE ENOUGH THERMO
INSTABILITY AS TO COUNTERACT THIS LACK OF UPSLOPE WEDNESDAY. THUS...
AS THE UPPER LOW SLIDES INTO THE WESTERN GULF WEDNESDAY...THERE
SHOULD BE ENOUGH OVERALL INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND...TO A LESSER DEGREE...ELEVATED THUNDER IF THE PROG
SOUNDINGS COME TO FRUITION. A TOTALLY SATURATED COLUMN WITH MORE
EFFICIENT CAA WILL MAKE FOR A COOL AND OVERCAST BACKGROUND DAY
WITH THE OCCASIONAL FOREFRONT SHOWER. IN SUMMARY...HAVE FORECAST
OF UPPER 50S (NORTH) TO LOWER 60S FOR WEDNESDAY`S MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES.
THERE WILL BE A LAG OF A COUPLE OF DAYS UNTIL OVERNIGHT MINIMUMS
BOTTOM OUT DUE TO A SLOWER LATE WEEK RETURN TO WEAKER NORTHERLIES
AND CLEAR SKIES. PER BETTER WED-THU CAA (5-8 DEG C 85 H TEMPS)
AND A MUCH TIGHTER SYNOPTIC GRADIENT BETWEEN 1030 MB HIGH BUILDING
INTO WESTERN TEXAS IN RELATION TO THE EASTERN-EXITING SURFACE LOW
OVER CENTRAL GULF...NORTH WINDS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY STRENGTHEN TO
NEAR 15-20KT SUSTAINED INLAND TO GALE FORCE OVER THE LOCAL WATERS
WELL INTO MID-LATE THURSDAY.

THE LATER PERIOD WILL BE MORE IN-LINE WITH NOVEMBER STANDARDS AS
FLOW BECOMES A BIT MORE ZONAL OVER THE STATE. SLOW MOISTURE RETURN
WILL ALLOW FOR LESSENED DIURNAL SWINGS BY THIS TIME NEXT WEEK.
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES THIS COMING
WEEKEND...CHILLY MORNINGS IN THE AVERAGE UPPER 30S TO MIDDLE 40S
WARM INTO THE VERY COMFORTABLE AVERAGE UPPER 60S TO MIDDLE 70S.
AFTER ANOTHER DRY WEEK (THU-TUE)...A NEARING SOUTHERN PLAINS
TROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE RAIN CHANCES. 31

[Snowman]

when are theses showers and thunderstorms going to form north of us? and will any of those storms to our east come this way?

[srainhoutx]

Looks like a squall line will form across the Hill Country and move S and E as the evening wears on. There is some concern from HGX that a Mesoscale Convective System (MCS) will also form in the northern reaches of the forecast area after 00Z or 7-8 PM local time.

[svrwx0503]

Right now we are just waiting for initiation to occur over the next 3 hours or so along the frontal boundary. You can see a cu field developing along the front in the visible satellite image posted by srain. Latest RUC data shows plenty of instability out there with ML CAPE in the 2000-2500J/kg range across the region along with steepening low level lapse rates. Both parameters continue to support a wind/hail threat through the evening as storms develop along the front.

[srainhoutx]

Matt, it appears the hail threat has gone up some as the day has progressed. Is that true?

[Andrew]

Great set of pics to show what is expected:












Also this loop really shows the setup nicely:

http://aviationweather.gov/adds/satelli ... g&itype=wv

[svrwx0503]

Matt, it appears the hail threat has gone up some as the day has progressed. Is that true?

The latest model data and RUC surface mesoanalysis suggests a good amount of CAPE in the -10 to -30C level which is favorable for hail development...also with lowering wet-bulb-zero heights later this evening in response to the approach of the mid-level trough suggest that hail will be the primary threat, with strong winds a close second. I think SPC wanted to emphasize that threat by upping the hail probabilities in the last few outlooks.

[Andrew]

gfs:




svrwx0503 looks to be a busy one. You ready to keep your radar up for a while?