March 2024
That was quite a storm that just rolled through Plum Grove. Purple cells don’t happen too often around here. Wonder what kinda hail it produced.
Wow - up to 2.65" here!! Nothing severe. Watching the next round.
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1158 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Inland Brazoria TX-Waller TX-Grimes TX-Wharton TX-Inland Harris TX-
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WHARTON... SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN...SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES...NORTHERN FORT BEND... SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BRAZORIA...WALLER AND WESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...
At 1158 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles west of Huntsville to near Beasley. Movement was west at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include... Sugar Land, Missouri City, Conroe, Rosenberg, Stafford, Bellaire, West University Place, Katy, Richmond, Tomball, Jersey Village, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village, Pinehurst, Spring Branch North, and The Woodlands.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 315DEG 61KT 3064 9577 2944 9592
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
$$
Self
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1158 PM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024
Inland Brazoria TX-Waller TX-Grimes TX-Wharton TX-Inland Harris TX-
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT NORTHEASTERN WHARTON... SOUTHEASTERN AUSTIN...SOUTHEASTERN GRIMES...NORTHERN FORT BEND... SOUTHWESTERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHERN BRAZORIA...WALLER AND WESTERN HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 1245 AM CDT...
At 1158 PM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from 13 miles west of Huntsville to near Beasley. Movement was west at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph and pea size hail.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects. Minor hail damage to vegetation is possible.
Locations impacted include... Sugar Land, Missouri City, Conroe, Rosenberg, Stafford, Bellaire, West University Place, Katy, Richmond, Tomball, Jersey Village, Hempstead, Prairie View, Brookshire, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village, Pinehurst, Spring Branch North, and The Woodlands.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
TIME...MOT...LOC 0458Z 315DEG 61KT 3064 9577 2944 9592
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.25 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
$$
Self
Special Weather Statement
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Inland Brazoria TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-Montgomery TX-
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FORT BEND...SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA AND CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM CDT...
At 1220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Shenandoah to near Bonney. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include... Pearland, Sugar Land, Missouri City, eastern Rosenberg, Alvin, Stafford, Bellaire, Humble, West University Place, Richmond, Galena Park, Tomball, Jacinto City, Jersey Village, Manvel, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village, Pinehurst, and Downtown Houston.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 269DEG 49KT 3024 9548 2934 9548
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
$$
Self
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1220 AM CDT Fri Mar 22 2024
Inland Brazoria TX-Inland Harris TX-Fort Bend TX-Montgomery TX-
...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT CENTRAL FORT BEND...SOUTHERN MONTGOMERY...NORTHWESTERN BRAZORIA AND CENTRAL HARRIS COUNTIES THROUGH 100 AM CDT...
At 1220 AM CDT, Doppler radar was tracking strong thunderstorms along a line extending from near Shenandoah to near Bonney. Movement was east at 45 mph.
HAZARD...Wind gusts up to 50 mph.
SOURCE...Radar indicated.
IMPACT...Gusty winds could knock down tree limbs and blow around unsecured objects.
Locations impacted include... Pearland, Sugar Land, Missouri City, eastern Rosenberg, Alvin, Stafford, Bellaire, Humble, West University Place, Richmond, Galena Park, Tomball, Jacinto City, Jersey Village, Manvel, Hunters Creek Village, Bunker Hill Village, Piney Point Village, Pinehurst, and Downtown Houston.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
If outdoors, consider seeking shelter inside a building.
&&
TIME...MOT...LOC 0520Z 269DEG 49KT 3024 9548 2934 9548
MAX HAIL SIZE...0.00 IN
MAX WIND GUST...50 MPH
$$
Self
That was nice to watch from the patio! Little over a 1/2” in 10-15 min with a lightning show and cool breeze. I’ll take that every night lol
This line of storms is potent.Good job to the HRRR for showing this since yesterday.
Finished with 3.91”
I’ll gladly take it!!
I’ll gladly take it!!
Yes, next week’s drought monitor should look much better. This rain was very timely and should last us a good while (especially if it rains again Monday) but it doesn’t take long to dry out again.
Another 0.7 inches with that line last night. Grand total since last weekend was just shy of 9 inches.
The 10-day forecast looks amazing. Beautiful spring weather with a good chance of rain on Monday.
1.36 inches total IMFY for the event. Yard and everything are about as good as it gets. No watering, very little if any A/C on. Enjoying the non-Big Suck weather while it lasts. Yesterday and today have been ideal - low DP in the 40s and 50s..
We have new flowers in the ground. Garden bush planting is 60% there. Mulch is down.
We have new flowers in the ground. Garden bush planting is 60% there. Mulch is down.
Wow - the NOAA forecast couldn't be much better. Sunny before and after Monday's storms. I hope we have sunny days ahead for the Eclipse Day (4/8). We'll be camped out near Spring Branch in the Hill Country west of San Marcos...and may cruise north if traffic allows. 3-4 minutes of totality for the area from Spring Branch to Marble Falls. I suspect everyone and their dog will be gathering though. It's going to be a parking lot.
The eclipse is cool, but no way am I sitting in a parking lot on the highway with everyone.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
looks like a squall line is beginning to develop out in west central texas, not sure if we see anything here locally though
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
00
FXUS64 KHGX 251126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Watching the line of showers and thunderstorms make its way towards
are area from the northwest, and that line is...not looking healthy.
Outflow looks to have well outrun long stretches of the line, which
functionally ends any potential for severe weather for a good while,
happily. We may need to still keep an eye on things later today
after some daytime heating tries to build a little instability, but
building a new line off an outflow boundary is a different
proposition from maintaining an existing line, and I`m now wondering
if even the relatively small potential for severe weather we`d been
eyeing for today is even too aggressive. That said, we still have
gobs of shear, a focus for initiation and mechanical lifting, plus
ample moisture, so I don`t want to write things off entirely here.
So, while a strong to severe storm at the very top end isn`t
impossible, the main character of this line`s passing through the
area today will be that of broken showers and embedded
thunderstorms, capable of producing some gusty winds that...mostly
won`t be much stronger than the gusty winds already being seen
across Southeast Texas. In fact, I did start to trend the PoPs
downward a little bit, as this line will very likely not be
continuous as it moves through, and so it is not quite a slam dunk
that most of the area sees rain. I`ve still got plenty of likely and
"definite" PoPs in place (greater than 54 and 74 percent,
respectively) but in a tighter, narrower swath than before.
Once the line is out of the picture early this afternoon, we should
see some lingering cloud cover, but the line almost certainly won`t
be strong enough for any real trailing stratiform showers and by the
time the afternoon is done, the bulk of the area should be mostly
sunny, with the southeastern third or so of the area modestly more
cloudy. Winds also look to be turned around to southwesterly to
westerly in the wake of the line, and now we start looking at
possibly seeing a fairly warm afternoon across the area, especially
if there`s not a lot of rain puddles to evaporate. Despite this line
coming through today, my highs today are higher than yesterday, and
largely in the 70s. Down in the Matagorda Bay area which won`t see
much more than a slight chance of rain, highs should be around 80
degrees. Rather than take the NBM deterministic highs today, I went
with the slightly warmer median of the NBM distribution. Based on
the health of this line of rain and storms coming in, I have a bit
of a worry that this will not be aggressive enough, but I don`t have
the guts to push up towards the upper quartile just yet.
Late tonight, we can finally expect the cold front to make its way
through the area, with some cooler, drier air to bolster whatever
drier air pushes its way in behind the day`s rain. This should make
for a more seasonably cool night for all but the immediate coast,
with lows in the upper 40s and 50s. The cooler air and continued
onshore flow should help temper the efficient warming we`ll get from
a sunny sky and lower humidity, and give us a Tuesday that looks 5-
10 degrees cooler than my forecast for today.
Winds should veer more to the northeast tomorrow night, but that
won`t do much but lock in another cool night, this time sliding
below seasonal averages. Closer to the coast, it`s more around 5
degrees below average, and more 5-10 degrees below average up in the
north. Way up in the northern reaches of Houston County, some
locally cold spots might even slip briefly below 40 degrees!
Unfortunately, we`re unlikely to know if it happens as the AWOS at
Crockett`s airfield is probably not going to quite manage that.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Though the long term continues to appear relatively uneventful
weather wise, global models continue to show a good wave of
vorticity and mid/upper moisture being thrown over our region on
Wednesday. For the most part, Wednesday is looking dry (thanks LL
dry air!) with increasing clouds and temperatures in the mid 60s
to low 70s. But I decided to cave and add some low PoPs (15-20%)
across our northern counties for Wednesday afternoon. Global
models insist on at least a few rain drops making it to the
ground. Given the mid/upper parameters, a few showers across our
northern counties does not seem too far fetched.
Thursday through the weekend will feature a building mid/upper
ridge. In the low-levels, high pressure will drift slowly
eastward, resulting in a gradual veering in the LL flow. This will
harken the return of onshore flow by Thursday evening. These
changes in the atmosphere will bring an upward trend in
temperatures and humidity, albeit a slow trend. The warming trend
may be hard to believe when you wake up Thursday morning. Sunrise
temps could be in the 40s across much of the CWA. Thursday
afternoon looks sunny with temperatures in the 70s. Friday appears
similar but with increasing southeasterly winds and slightly
higher temperatures and humidity.
The early outlook for the weekend looks quite warm and
increasingly humid. Persistent LL flow from the Gulf will push
tropical moisture into southeast Texas, giving the air a muggy
feel. Mid/upper ridging is expected to build with ensemble mean
500 MB heights around 585 dam. I didn`t see any reason to not go
with the rather toasty NBM which shows widespread afternoon highs
in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s on Saturday and Sunday.
The exception may be near the coast, where the cool waters of the
Gulf may help to keep highs in the 70s. Of course, these
conditions would be considered delightful during the summer
months. So enjoy it!
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Next several hours look frustrating as weakening line of SHRA and
iso TSRA struggles to make progress into the area. Expect this
cycle may need tweaking to account for real time progress of this
line. Beyond that, however, things simplify as sky clears and SW
winds prevail. In the north and the IAH extended, do need to
account for the arrival of a front turning winds northerly.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
An elongated and strong southeasterly fetch as resulted in
building seas overnight. Seas are expected to peak this morning,
ranging from 5-7 feet near shore to 8-11 feet farther offshore. A
front will move offshore around midday. There will be a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead and along the front.
Locally higher winds are possible in and near any shower or storm.
Winds become more southerly and weaken somewhat ahead of the
front, before shifting more west to northwest and weakening
further in the front`s wake. Sea will gradually decrease after
their peak early in the morning. However, it could take until
tonight or even sometime on Tuesday for seas to drop below Small
Craft Advisory criteria (7 feet) for the offshore-most parts of
our forecast area. Beyond today, the forecast is pretty benign.
Onshore flow returns late Thursday. These onshore winds will be
relatively light at first, before becoming more moderate by the
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 46 65 45 / 70 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 78 52 73 50 / 70 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 59 72 57 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 251126
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
626 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Watching the line of showers and thunderstorms make its way towards
are area from the northwest, and that line is...not looking healthy.
Outflow looks to have well outrun long stretches of the line, which
functionally ends any potential for severe weather for a good while,
happily. We may need to still keep an eye on things later today
after some daytime heating tries to build a little instability, but
building a new line off an outflow boundary is a different
proposition from maintaining an existing line, and I`m now wondering
if even the relatively small potential for severe weather we`d been
eyeing for today is even too aggressive. That said, we still have
gobs of shear, a focus for initiation and mechanical lifting, plus
ample moisture, so I don`t want to write things off entirely here.
So, while a strong to severe storm at the very top end isn`t
impossible, the main character of this line`s passing through the
area today will be that of broken showers and embedded
thunderstorms, capable of producing some gusty winds that...mostly
won`t be much stronger than the gusty winds already being seen
across Southeast Texas. In fact, I did start to trend the PoPs
downward a little bit, as this line will very likely not be
continuous as it moves through, and so it is not quite a slam dunk
that most of the area sees rain. I`ve still got plenty of likely and
"definite" PoPs in place (greater than 54 and 74 percent,
respectively) but in a tighter, narrower swath than before.
Once the line is out of the picture early this afternoon, we should
see some lingering cloud cover, but the line almost certainly won`t
be strong enough for any real trailing stratiform showers and by the
time the afternoon is done, the bulk of the area should be mostly
sunny, with the southeastern third or so of the area modestly more
cloudy. Winds also look to be turned around to southwesterly to
westerly in the wake of the line, and now we start looking at
possibly seeing a fairly warm afternoon across the area, especially
if there`s not a lot of rain puddles to evaporate. Despite this line
coming through today, my highs today are higher than yesterday, and
largely in the 70s. Down in the Matagorda Bay area which won`t see
much more than a slight chance of rain, highs should be around 80
degrees. Rather than take the NBM deterministic highs today, I went
with the slightly warmer median of the NBM distribution. Based on
the health of this line of rain and storms coming in, I have a bit
of a worry that this will not be aggressive enough, but I don`t have
the guts to push up towards the upper quartile just yet.
Late tonight, we can finally expect the cold front to make its way
through the area, with some cooler, drier air to bolster whatever
drier air pushes its way in behind the day`s rain. This should make
for a more seasonably cool night for all but the immediate coast,
with lows in the upper 40s and 50s. The cooler air and continued
onshore flow should help temper the efficient warming we`ll get from
a sunny sky and lower humidity, and give us a Tuesday that looks 5-
10 degrees cooler than my forecast for today.
Winds should veer more to the northeast tomorrow night, but that
won`t do much but lock in another cool night, this time sliding
below seasonal averages. Closer to the coast, it`s more around 5
degrees below average, and more 5-10 degrees below average up in the
north. Way up in the northern reaches of Houston County, some
locally cold spots might even slip briefly below 40 degrees!
Unfortunately, we`re unlikely to know if it happens as the AWOS at
Crockett`s airfield is probably not going to quite manage that.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Though the long term continues to appear relatively uneventful
weather wise, global models continue to show a good wave of
vorticity and mid/upper moisture being thrown over our region on
Wednesday. For the most part, Wednesday is looking dry (thanks LL
dry air!) with increasing clouds and temperatures in the mid 60s
to low 70s. But I decided to cave and add some low PoPs (15-20%)
across our northern counties for Wednesday afternoon. Global
models insist on at least a few rain drops making it to the
ground. Given the mid/upper parameters, a few showers across our
northern counties does not seem too far fetched.
Thursday through the weekend will feature a building mid/upper
ridge. In the low-levels, high pressure will drift slowly
eastward, resulting in a gradual veering in the LL flow. This will
harken the return of onshore flow by Thursday evening. These
changes in the atmosphere will bring an upward trend in
temperatures and humidity, albeit a slow trend. The warming trend
may be hard to believe when you wake up Thursday morning. Sunrise
temps could be in the 40s across much of the CWA. Thursday
afternoon looks sunny with temperatures in the 70s. Friday appears
similar but with increasing southeasterly winds and slightly
higher temperatures and humidity.
The early outlook for the weekend looks quite warm and
increasingly humid. Persistent LL flow from the Gulf will push
tropical moisture into southeast Texas, giving the air a muggy
feel. Mid/upper ridging is expected to build with ensemble mean
500 MB heights around 585 dam. I didn`t see any reason to not go
with the rather toasty NBM which shows widespread afternoon highs
in the 80s with overnight lows in the 60s on Saturday and Sunday.
The exception may be near the coast, where the cool waters of the
Gulf may help to keep highs in the 70s. Of course, these
conditions would be considered delightful during the summer
months. So enjoy it!
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 624 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
Next several hours look frustrating as weakening line of SHRA and
iso TSRA struggles to make progress into the area. Expect this
cycle may need tweaking to account for real time progress of this
line. Beyond that, however, things simplify as sky clears and SW
winds prevail. In the north and the IAH extended, do need to
account for the arrival of a front turning winds northerly.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 139 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2024
An elongated and strong southeasterly fetch as resulted in
building seas overnight. Seas are expected to peak this morning,
ranging from 5-7 feet near shore to 8-11 feet farther offshore. A
front will move offshore around midday. There will be a chance of
showers and isolated thunderstorms ahead and along the front.
Locally higher winds are possible in and near any shower or storm.
Winds become more southerly and weaken somewhat ahead of the
front, before shifting more west to northwest and weakening
further in the front`s wake. Sea will gradually decrease after
their peak early in the morning. However, it could take until
tonight or even sometime on Tuesday for seas to drop below Small
Craft Advisory criteria (7 feet) for the offshore-most parts of
our forecast area. Beyond today, the forecast is pretty benign.
Onshore flow returns late Thursday. These onshore winds will be
relatively light at first, before becoming more moderate by the
weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 46 65 45 / 70 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 78 52 73 50 / 70 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 59 72 57 / 60 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335-350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for GMZ370-375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self
Well, the rain chances and forecast totals have dropped considerably for today in League City.