March 2024
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captainbarbossa19
- Posts: 401
- Joined: Mon Jun 28, 2021 2:50 pm
- Location: Starkville, MS
- Contact:
Severe threat could be potentially nasty over in LA/MS later this evening. Helicity looks good, shear is very high, and dewpoints should be sufficient. The main limitation could be instability as CAPE values are not really high. However, one does not need high CAPE every time to get tornadoes.
0.16”
Yeah, kinda sad…
Yeah, kinda sad…
Today was never really supposed to be much of an event. The WPC only had us getting about a quarter inch or less.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Hopefully we can get a good long stretch of dry weather, I font need anymore rain
0.63 inches this morning, and 2.77in for the month. Not bad since we started out the month fairly dry. Once the sad line departed this morning, we've had a nice day. Nearly Chamber of Commerce type weather.
Nice mild weather through Friday, but a pretty warm weekend could be on tap.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 261123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Fair weather continues today as surface high pressure builds over
the region. A reinforcing dry front, currently extending over the
region will continue its passage towards the coast this morning.
Behind the boundary, a drier and cooler airmass will prevail. A few
shortwaves/vort maxes embedded in the southwest flow aloft will
continue to move over SE TX. However, precipitation is not
anticipated given a dry sub-cloud layer (PWATS at or below 0.6
inches). Highs will generally be from the upper 60s (far inland)
into the low 70s elsewhere. A quiet and slightly cooler night is
expected with lows into the low 40s to low 50s.
A broad upper-level trough will make its way to the Plains on
Wednesday, increasing vorticity/forcing aloft. Deterministic models
suggest PWATs into the 0.7 to 1.0 inch range during the day. In
addition, latest Hi-Res/CAMS bring isolated showers/storms for
portions of the region. Therefore, have introduced slight chances
during the day (15 percent). Highs mainly into the upper 60s to low
70s.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Not much has changed regarding the long term outlook. Increased
mid/upper ridging coupled with the return of LL onshore flow will
trend temperatures and humidity levels upward as we approach the
end of the week. We are still expecting a chilly start to your
Thursday, with sunrise temps in the 40s to low 50s (mid/upper 50s
on the coast). By afternoon, most locations warm well into the
70s. Friday will be similar but with slightly higher temperatures.
We start to crank the heat over the weekend and into Monday.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended upward with
mid/upper pressure heights over the last 24 hrs, from a peak 500MB
height of ~585 dam to closer to ~588 dam. LL flow remains
onshore, pushing humid tropical air northward from the Gulf and
into southeast Texas. For inland areas, these trends are forecast
to yield low 80s temps w/ ~60 degree dew points on Saturday, then
low/mid 80s temps w/ low/mid 60s dew points on Sunday, and
mid/upper 80s w/ mid/upper 60s dew points by Monday. That
temperature/dew point combo on Monday would result in low 90s heat
index values. Since the Gulf waters remain on the cool side,
temperatures at the beaches are expected to be 5-10 degrees
cooler. Sat-Mon overnight lows are forecast to generally be in the
60s.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period with light to
moderate northwest to north winds. Winds will become light and
variable in the evening.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Southeasterly swell has managed to be more stubborn, resulting in
the extension of the Small Craft Advisory for the 20 to 60 NM
waters through early afternoon today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 45 70 47 / 0 0 20 20
Houston (IAH) 72 49 73 50 / 0 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 70 58 69 58 / 0 0 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 261123
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
623 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Fair weather continues today as surface high pressure builds over
the region. A reinforcing dry front, currently extending over the
region will continue its passage towards the coast this morning.
Behind the boundary, a drier and cooler airmass will prevail. A few
shortwaves/vort maxes embedded in the southwest flow aloft will
continue to move over SE TX. However, precipitation is not
anticipated given a dry sub-cloud layer (PWATS at or below 0.6
inches). Highs will generally be from the upper 60s (far inland)
into the low 70s elsewhere. A quiet and slightly cooler night is
expected with lows into the low 40s to low 50s.
A broad upper-level trough will make its way to the Plains on
Wednesday, increasing vorticity/forcing aloft. Deterministic models
suggest PWATs into the 0.7 to 1.0 inch range during the day. In
addition, latest Hi-Res/CAMS bring isolated showers/storms for
portions of the region. Therefore, have introduced slight chances
during the day (15 percent). Highs mainly into the upper 60s to low
70s.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Not much has changed regarding the long term outlook. Increased
mid/upper ridging coupled with the return of LL onshore flow will
trend temperatures and humidity levels upward as we approach the
end of the week. We are still expecting a chilly start to your
Thursday, with sunrise temps in the 40s to low 50s (mid/upper 50s
on the coast). By afternoon, most locations warm well into the
70s. Friday will be similar but with slightly higher temperatures.
We start to crank the heat over the weekend and into Monday.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance has trended upward with
mid/upper pressure heights over the last 24 hrs, from a peak 500MB
height of ~585 dam to closer to ~588 dam. LL flow remains
onshore, pushing humid tropical air northward from the Gulf and
into southeast Texas. For inland areas, these trends are forecast
to yield low 80s temps w/ ~60 degree dew points on Saturday, then
low/mid 80s temps w/ low/mid 60s dew points on Sunday, and
mid/upper 80s w/ mid/upper 60s dew points by Monday. That
temperature/dew point combo on Monday would result in low 90s heat
index values. Since the Gulf waters remain on the cool side,
temperatures at the beaches are expected to be 5-10 degrees
cooler. Sat-Mon overnight lows are forecast to generally be in the
60s.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
VFR conditions are expected through the period with light to
moderate northwest to north winds. Winds will become light and
variable in the evening.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Southeasterly swell has managed to be more stubborn, resulting in
the extension of the Small Craft Advisory for the 20 to 60 NM
waters through early afternoon today.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 45 70 47 / 0 0 20 20
Houston (IAH) 72 49 73 50 / 0 0 20 10
Galveston (GLS) 70 58 69 58 / 0 0 20 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ350-355.
Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ370-
375.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Will be continuing with VFR conditions through tonight. Light to mod-
erate NW/N winds are expected to become lighter/variable this evening
into the overnight hours. Have introduced the mention of VCSH for the
CWA tomorrow with the arrival and passage of a mid/upper level short-
wave. There have also been hints that isolated TSRA are possible with
this activity. 41
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Mar 26 2024
Will be continuing with VFR conditions through tonight. Light to mod-
erate NW/N winds are expected to become lighter/variable this evening
into the overnight hours. Have introduced the mention of VCSH for the
CWA tomorrow with the arrival and passage of a mid/upper level short-
wave. There have also been hints that isolated TSRA are possible with
this activity. 41
66°F, Northerly breeze, DP = 41°F, brilliant sunshine. The leaves on trees and grass are emerald green.
A Chamber of Commerce Day if there ever was one.
A Chamber of Commerce Day if there ever was one.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 4488
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 271125
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Surface high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern
across Southeast TX today, bringing a drier and cooler airmass from
the northwest. However, the mid to upper levels continue active with
multiple shortwaves/vort maxes embedded in the southwest flow. This
is in response to a longwave upper-trough moving across the Plains.
These passing shortwaves will result in increasing cloud cover and
will also serve as the main focus for isolated light showers and
storms today. Confidence in occurrence and coverage is moderate
given a dry sub-cloud layer where PWATs remain at or below 0.9
inches. The environment looks more favorable for light rain/storms
later this afternoon and evening as moisture increases a bit (PWs up
to 1.0 inches) and convergence strengthens with a passing warm
front. Have continued with 15 to 25 percent of rain/storms
today/this evening with the highest chances across our north-
northwest counties. Skies should gradually scatter out this evening
as forcing aloft moves out of the region. This will result in
another chilly night with overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s.
Surface high pressure moves to our east on Thursday, shifting winds
to the south-southeast across the region. Warm and more humid
southerly flow will result in highs mainly in the upper 70s.
Overnight lows mainly in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The long term continues to feature a building mid/upper ridge and
LL onshore flow on the back side of an eastward progressing sfc
high pressure system. As a result, the Friday to Monday time
frame will feature gradually warming temperatures and rising
humidity. Friday may still feel like spring with highs in the
mid/upper 70s. But by Monday, inland temperatures are expected to
be well into the 80s with 65-70 degree dew points. Couldn`t rule
out a few spots making a run for the 90 degree mark. Coastal
afternoon temps should generally be 5-10 degrees cooler. Pattern
may change by Tuesday as a mid/upper trough approaches from the
west and a cold front from the north. We continue to show some
PoPs on Tuesday as well as some cooler air (70s) in our northern
counties.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Mid to high clouds will be increasing throughout the day. A few
showers will be possible across most terminals mainly after
midday. Isolated storms will also be possible near/at KCLL, KUTS
and KCXO terminals late this afternoon/evening. North to northeast
winds will shift to the west southwest later today. Gusty winds
can be expected this afternoon and/or near any storms. Clouds
will gradually clear overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Light to moderate northeast winds today are expected to weaken by
tonight. On Thursday, winds will veer southeast by the afternoon
and remain southeasterly through early next week. Seas will
gradually decrease today into Thursday. Southeasterly winds are
expected to become moderate to occasionally strong Friday through
the weekend into early next week. By Friday and Saturday, an
increasing southeasterly fetch is forecast to increase swell. The
swell could remain somewhat elevated (4-6 feet) into early next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 47 75 53 / 20 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 49 77 54 / 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 59 69 62 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self
FXUS64 KHGX 271125
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
625 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Surface high pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern
across Southeast TX today, bringing a drier and cooler airmass from
the northwest. However, the mid to upper levels continue active with
multiple shortwaves/vort maxes embedded in the southwest flow. This
is in response to a longwave upper-trough moving across the Plains.
These passing shortwaves will result in increasing cloud cover and
will also serve as the main focus for isolated light showers and
storms today. Confidence in occurrence and coverage is moderate
given a dry sub-cloud layer where PWATs remain at or below 0.9
inches. The environment looks more favorable for light rain/storms
later this afternoon and evening as moisture increases a bit (PWs up
to 1.0 inches) and convergence strengthens with a passing warm
front. Have continued with 15 to 25 percent of rain/storms
today/this evening with the highest chances across our north-
northwest counties. Skies should gradually scatter out this evening
as forcing aloft moves out of the region. This will result in
another chilly night with overnight lows mainly in the upper 40s.
Surface high pressure moves to our east on Thursday, shifting winds
to the south-southeast across the region. Warm and more humid
southerly flow will result in highs mainly in the upper 70s.
Overnight lows mainly in the 50s.
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
The long term continues to feature a building mid/upper ridge and
LL onshore flow on the back side of an eastward progressing sfc
high pressure system. As a result, the Friday to Monday time
frame will feature gradually warming temperatures and rising
humidity. Friday may still feel like spring with highs in the
mid/upper 70s. But by Monday, inland temperatures are expected to
be well into the 80s with 65-70 degree dew points. Couldn`t rule
out a few spots making a run for the 90 degree mark. Coastal
afternoon temps should generally be 5-10 degrees cooler. Pattern
may change by Tuesday as a mid/upper trough approaches from the
west and a cold front from the north. We continue to show some
PoPs on Tuesday as well as some cooler air (70s) in our northern
counties.
Self
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Mid to high clouds will be increasing throughout the day. A few
showers will be possible across most terminals mainly after
midday. Isolated storms will also be possible near/at KCLL, KUTS
and KCXO terminals late this afternoon/evening. North to northeast
winds will shift to the west southwest later today. Gusty winds
can be expected this afternoon and/or near any storms. Clouds
will gradually clear overnight. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected through the period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 300 AM CDT Wed Mar 27 2024
Light to moderate northeast winds today are expected to weaken by
tonight. On Thursday, winds will veer southeast by the afternoon
and remain southeasterly through early next week. Seas will
gradually decrease today into Thursday. Southeasterly winds are
expected to become moderate to occasionally strong Friday through
the weekend into early next week. By Friday and Saturday, an
increasing southeasterly fetch is forecast to increase swell. The
swell could remain somewhat elevated (4-6 feet) into early next
week.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 68 47 75 53 / 20 20 0 0
Houston (IAH) 70 49 77 54 / 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 69 59 69 62 / 10 10 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Self
Uhhh, what’s with this site now?
It's too nice. Makes me want to take my shoes off before entering. I'm not worthy. LOL
Fresh. Clean. It must be opening day for MLB! Even the Cubs can't blow it today...at least until 6:35 pm tonight when they play the World Champion Texas Rangers.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4248
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
I had to refresh the page because I thought it was a different site
I like this new website.
Love this PHP update.
Love this weather.
Hope everyone has a wonderful Easter Weekend.
Love this weather.
Hope everyone has a wonderful Easter Weekend.
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srainhoutx
- Site Admin
- Posts: 19616
- Joined: Tue Feb 02, 2010 2:32 pm
- Location: Maggie Valley, NC
- Contact:
Awesome new Platform! Enjoy folks and thanks for your patience!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
Member: National Weather Association
Facebook.com/Weather Infinity
Twitter @WeatherInfinity
I love the changes! 
FYI It's far out but I'm watching the 2nd week of April for the possibility of a significant cutoff low in the southwest/southern plains.Combined with an active subtropical jet, such a setup could lead to a multi day severe weather & heavy rain threat in the plains.Still far out so nothing to worry about at the moment though,just something to watch.
FYI It's far out but I'm watching the 2nd week of April for the possibility of a significant cutoff low in the southwest/southern plains.Combined with an active subtropical jet, such a setup could lead to a multi day severe weather & heavy rain threat in the plains.Still far out so nothing to worry about at the moment though,just something to watch.
- gfs_z500a_us_45.png (135.01 KiB) Viewed 1243 times