March 2024

[JDsGN]

Ooof a total of 0.58 here in my rain gauge in Cypress. Other than Friday we just kept ending up on the edge or storms developed after they passed us. Better than nothing.

[jasons2k]

I only got a few sprinkles here to dampen the pavement for a few minutes, and that was it. I know some people got some rain today, but it certainly wasn't the 'main event' up here.

That excessive rainfall outlook was just another tease.

[suprdav2]

Ooof a total of 0.58 here in my rain gauge in Cypress. Other than Friday we just kept ending up on the edge or storms developed after they passed us. Better than nothing.

Yep, another miss for us in Cypress.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 181059
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
559 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

High pressure will continue to build down from the Central Plains
today but clouds probably won`t be clearing much until this after-
noon. Otherwise, not a lot of issues for SE TX for the day or so.
With skies clearing and north winds prevailing, high temperatures
today will be in the 60s. Much drier and cooler conditions are on
tap for tonight with lows mostly in the 40s across the FA (except
for the Piney Woods where readings could drop into the upper 30s).

Tues will be another dry/quiet day with highs in the 60s. However,
as the surface high begins moving east of the region, look for the
return of E/SE winds (and some low-level moisture) by Tues evening
and night. Lows tomorrow night will be slightly warmer; in the low
to mid 50s for most locations...into upper 40s over the far north-
ern counties. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

With the eastward exit of surface high pressure late on Tuesday,
we return to an onshore moisture regime by Wednesday that should
provide a steady increase to temperature/dew point values ahead of
the approach of our next storm system on Thursday. A wholesale
increase in surface dew points of about 10 degF is on the cards by
Wednesday evening, while increases in maximum temperature will be
a bit more meager with highs just under 70 for most locations.
Meanwhile, models continue to depict the approach of an amplified
midlevel trough that will push westward from Southern AZ/NM
towards the Western Gulf by late Wednesday. This feature will
induce the development of a coastal low/trough just offshore which
will serve as the focus for the potential for widespread (and
potentially heavy) rainfall that will develop on Thursday.

Global models have come into a bit better agreement over the past
24 hrs, though GFS continues to show a slightly more amplified
midlevel trough and resultant stronger coastal low. However, both
the GFS and EC continue to place the main axis of heavy rainfall
over the Gulf, though given the uncertainty of the past few model
cycles the potential for some locally heavy rain closer to the
coast (i.e. along and south of the I-10 corridor) still can`t be
ruled out for the time being. Too early to talk specific amounts
for the time being, but most of the area looks poised to receive
at least some measurable rainfall on Thursday with totals
increasing roughly from north to south.

The coastal low will push further towards the Central Gulf by
early Friday, ending the rainfall threat as we head into the
weekend. A fairly benign pattern looks to dominate the upcoming
weekend with highs remaining in the upper 70s and lows in the
upper 50s under weak onshore flow.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 551 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

MVFR ceilings are continuing to mix out this morning with winds be-
coming the main issue for this TAF package. N/NE winds 10-16kts are
expected to prevail with gusts from 15-25kts possible...with winds/
gusts a bit higher at the coast (GLS). Winds should decrease to 4-7
kts this evening into the overnight hours. Otherwise, VFR. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 312 AM CDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Strong north winds will continue throughout this morning and
afternoon in the wake of yesterday`s cold frontal passage. Wind
speeds will reach 20 to 30 knots through the early evening, with
higher gusts at times, along with seas reaching as high as 10 feet
offshore. As a result, a Small Craft Advisory remains in effect.
Winds and seas will diminish on Tuesday as winds become light and
shift to the east. Onshore flow will return on Wednesday, with a
storm system developing offshore on Thursday that will bring our
next chance of widespread (and possibly heavy) rainfall to the
area.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 41 64 50 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 68 44 67 53 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 67 53 61 56 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ330-
335.

Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM CDT this evening for GMZ350-355-
370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 191140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

A fairly typical springtime week ahead for Southeast Texas.
Seasonable temperatures and mixed stretches of fair weather and
showers/storms. Here`s a quick summary of the days to come:
- Expect temperatures pretty near seasonal averages for the next
several days. Today will be a bit on the cooler side of that
average, and we`ll gradually warm up to being just a bit warmer
by the weekend.
- The first window for showers and storms runs from Wednesday
night through Thursday night. A marginal risk of severe
thunderstorms (threat level 1 of 5) is in place around Matagorda
Bay Wednesday, which expands to include all of Southeast Texas
on Thursday. There is also a marginal risk of excessive rainfall
(threat level 1 of 4) from the Houston metro coastward on
Thursday.
- Window number two for showers and storms comes early next week,
generally centered around Monday. There is high confidence in
this broad idea of early week rain and storms, but the fine
details currently have too much uncertainty to say anything more
specific with much confidence.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Dry cool weather will prevail today and tonight, even as the surface
high over the region begins moving east. Light NE winds this morning
will be slowly transitioning to the E and then SE this afternoon and
evening. And so, with mostly to partly sunny skies, temperature this
afternoon should top out in the mid and upper 60s. Lows should range
from the upper 40s across the northern CWA...to the lower to mid 50s
elsewhere tonight.

The main forecast problem(s) are going to be with the pattern aloft,
with the pesky closed low that has been lingering in/around the Four
Corners region the last few days. This resultant W/SW flow aloft has
kept a steady stream of mid/high clouds in place over SE TX (as well
as some weak embedded disturbances at times). This system is progged
to finally begin moving east on Weds while weakening a bit. And when
combined with the return low-level moisture, rain chances should re-
turn to the area as well. We`ll likely start seeing some isolated to
widely scattered activity move up from the W/SW by tomorrow evening,
then becoming more widespread by tomorrow night. The latest from SPC
has our southwestern FA in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for severe
weather initially for tomorrow night (Day 2)...then for all of SE TX
for Thurs (Day 3). More details below.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Let`s start off the long with some fun, huh? Thursday opens up
with the end of zonal flow aloft, and we are pretty likely to see
some showers, perhaps with some embedded thunderstorms, as early
as the morning as a shortwave trough zips overhead, helping to
spur the development of a weak coastal low.

The main fun is likely to hold off until later into the day and
Thursday night, however, as a more potent upper trough makes its
way in from the west, resulting in height falls aloft and
deepening of a surface low. Both the NAEFS and Euro ensemble means
are pretty moist, progging Thursday`s precipitable water values
around the 90th percentile (roughly correlating to over 1.25
inches inland, exceeding 1.5 inches at the coast). The EPS is a
bit drier, hanging out just under the 90th percentile, while the
NAEFS mean is a little bit higher. Either way, ample moisture is
in place. Height falls and daytime heating will help build some
instability, though it appears we may have a fairly sharp gradient
through the area. The NBM distribution shows that probabilities
of SBCAPE in excess of 500 J/Kg Thursday afternoon change pretty
rapidly to the west of Houston - practically nil right along I-45,
but increasing above 50 percent before you`re even west of the
west Beltway. While there are some questions for the east, it`s
pretty high confidence for some Thursday thunderstorms, and
potentially some strong to severe storms as well.

Just how much potential do you ask? Well, at the moment, there`s
a *lot* of uncertainty for what the top end for thunderstorm
potential is on Thursday thanks to numerous open questions. Will
morning clouds and rain sap instability to keep storm development
down in the afternoon? Will any storms that do initiate die off
as they cross the instability gradient? Or do they become
organized enough to hold insulate themselves from the poorer
environment, carrying all the way through our area? Given how high
PoPs are, I`ve got to think the messiness of the day from the jump
will cap high end potential somewhat. SPC`s Day 3 marginal risk
seems appropriate, and if we do end up getting a cleaner
environment overall, there may be a need for a little more
alertness, particularly west of the Houston metro.

Fair weather prevails Friday with northwest flow in place from the
ground through the middle layers in the wake of the exiting
trough. Though there will technically be some amount of cold
advection occurring here, I would expect temperatures to reach or
even exceed Thursday`s highs as clouds scatter out for the
afternoon. Weak ridging keeps the fair weather in place through
the weekend, and we can generally expect highs in the 70s each
day. Friday and even Saturday night should be cooler (and by
cooler, I only mean near seasonal averages) but onshore flow
returns late Saturday into Sunday, and as usual, our overnight
temperature floor goes up with the humidity into next week.

Our next round of more unsettled weather looks to be Monday into
Tuesday. It`s a pretty classic case of big upper trough digs into
the Plains, inducing lee cyclogenesis that swings through the
Panhandles and ejects northeastward towards the Great Lakes.
For whatever its worth, ensemble data suggests that moisture will
be high, but seasonably so (below the 90th percentile), and the
probability of getting back over an admittedly arbitrary 500 J/KG
SBCAPE threshold is already around/over 50 percent, so showers and
thunderstorms of some sort seem like a safe bet. Beyond that,
however, there`s just not enough signal in the guidance to
say anything more specific that that with a lot of confidence
right now.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 621 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

VFR conditions for the most part, with only mid and high clouds and
a gradual wind shift as the main issues with this TAF package. With
surface high pressure drifting east through the day, light NE winds
this morning (2-6kts) will be transitioning to the E and then SE as
the afternoon wears on. Winds will be mostly SE/S tonight (4-8kts).
41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM CDT Tue Mar 19 2024

Winds are gradually diminishing, with seas slowly subsiding as
well very early this morning. Much of the area has already fallen
below the threshold for caution flags, but a smattering of
caution-level winds and even occasional gust around 20 knots are
being seen. Along with this, seas have only come down to 6 feet at
Freeport Buoy so far. Though conditions will continue to improve
through the morning, small craft will still want to exercise
caution beyond 20 NM out while winds and seas are still somewhat
elevated. Deeper into the afternoon though, winds will diminish
more shifting more easterly. Onshore flow will fully return by
Wednesday. This will lead us to the late week development of a
coastal low, which will boost winds and seas, as well as bring us
our next round of showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 66 51 67 58 / 0 0 10 40
Houston (IAH) 68 54 70 60 / 0 0 0 50
Galveston (GLS) 62 57 68 63 / 0 0 0 40

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 11 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Luchs

[Thundersleet]

Happy belated St. Patrick’s Day ! The Spring Equinox is upon all of us tonight at 11:06 p.m. fifty-four minutes prior to midnight. Woohoo 🥳!

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 201144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Mid-level clouds are working their way over the western portions
of our area, signaling an eventual change in the weather coming.
Here`s what we`re looking at:
- The first, low rain chances may start to sneak in around
Matagorda Bay as early as late this afternoon, but the focus for
rain and storms will be Thursday.
- A marginal risk of severe weather (threat level 1 of 5) is in
place across Southeast Texas for very early tomorrow morning,
3-6 AM, through tomorrow. The main threat is hail and a few
damaging wind gusts. There is also a marginal risk (threat level
1 of 4) for excessive rain on Thursday.
- After fair weather prevails for the weekend, our next shot at
rain and storms will come Monday. While confidence in this broad
scenario for rain/storms early next week is high, we are not
able to say much about specific threat levels with a lot of
confidence yet.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

So, even with the cooler/drier weather, we did still manage to get a
few sprinkles across the mainly southern parts of the CWA yesterday,
all courtesy of embedded shortwaves (in the persistent W and SW flow
aloft). With this pattern remaining in place, we could see addition-
al trace amounts across the area today, but most locations will stay
dry with partly sunny skies prevailing. Highs this afternoon will be
in the upper 60s to lower 70s.

The major changes with the forecast should begin late this afternoon
and early evening as return moisture increases with a developing low
level jet. A strong shortwave (just ahead of the main mid/upper trof
moving in from the Four Corners) is expected to track into SE TX to-
night. The slightly weaker cap and strong deep-layer shear will help
to produce a decent chance of showers and thunderstorms for the over
night period. Some of the storms could be strong to severe, with the
main severe threat being large hail. SPC`s Day 1 has most of the CWA
in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for mainly tonight.

We`ll likely get a bit of a break by Thurs morning, and perhaps into
the afternoon hours. A warm front is set to creep into area from the
Gulf during the afternoon...with warm(er)/moist(er) air in its wake.

All of this will be part of the setup for another round of potentia-
lly strong and/or severe thunderstorms for Thurs evening/night from
the previously mentioned mid/upper trof moving in from the west. Th-
e progs of strong deep layer shear still in place over the area, al-
ong with the warm front and the dynamics associated with the trof i-
tself could lead to the development of widespread storms, including
supercells tomorrow night. All of SE TX does remain in a Marginal R-
isk in the Day 2 outlook from SPC.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Welp, most of the fun we got to talk about yesterday has slipped
into the short term - all that`s left to clean up Friday morning
are some lingering rain chances northeast of Lake Livingston in
case things are a bit slower to exit stage right, and even those
are less than ten percent.

This lets us turn our attention to fair weather and temperature
trends for the weekend pretty quickly. With pretty solid northwest
flow behind a stacked trough, we will definitely see something
that technically is cold advection. And by that, I mean about 24
hours where 850 temps dip from 11ish C to 8ish C before starting
to crawl back upwards. Battling that will be a clearing sky, and
now that we`re pushing into the last third of March, I`d put my
money on the sun to win that battle. I`ve got highs Friday that
match or exceed Thursday, with most of the area looking to crack
into the 70s. Where the influence of this new airmass is more
likely to be seen is overnight, as lows Friday and Saturday night
should fall into the 50s most everywhere...perhaps even the upper
40s around and north of Crockett up in Houston County.

Saturday should be warmer still, with the hot spots looking to
crack 80 degrees. NBM probabilities of reaching 80 on Saturday are
still below 50 percent for most of the area, but there`s a little
bullseye just over 50 percent in northern Liberty County, and a
broader signal of 30+ percent probabilities northeast of Houston
in general. I would largely expect someone, somewhere (probably
northeast of Houston) to hit 80 on Saturday, even if most of us
stay in the upper 70s.

Onshore flow returns Saturday night, and we can generally expect
increasing clouds on Sunday, which will keep things from getting
quite as warm. But we should still look for seasonable
temperatures with highs in the middle to upper 70s for the large
majority of the area. And with onshore flow, we of course pump up
the humidity, and pump up the overnight lows. Sunday night,
farewell 50s and hello 60s.

Finally, this brings us to our next shot at showers and storms
Monday. Ensembles aren`t super enthused with moisture return -
progged precipitable water values in both the NAEFS and EPS means
are below the 90th percentile. But things aren`t arid, either.
Integrated Vapor Transport (IVT) does exceed the 90th percentile
for both, so once moisture return finally does start, it should
start in earnest, which pushes the mean PWAT values into the 1-1.3
inch range. Meanwhile, off to the west, an upper trough dropping
off the Rockies will spur lee cyclogenesis in the Plains, and it
looks like Monday will see convective initiation off a pre-frontal
trough/dryline off to our west, and that should march right
through the area at some point on Monday.

Now, all of this is pretty synoptic, and usually well-handled by
global models. It`s also a pretty classic scenario, so I`ve got
pretty high confidence in these broad strokes. But if you read a
bit more indecision at the end of that last paragraph, you`d be
right. At nearly a week out, model guidance is unsurprisingly
managing to diverge, and so getting into specifics like precise
timing...the ceiling of threat for hazardous weather...stuff like
that is much tougher. These will depend on factors that aren`t
easily forecasted this far out and will even influence each other.
I could definitely spin a yarn about how exactly Monday goes down,
but it`d be a fool`s errand. Wiser instead just to keep this
timeframe as the next window to watch for, gather more data, and
we can focus more on it once we get through the first stretch of
rain and storms.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Continued VFR for much of today even with the abundant mid and high
clouds streaming in from the west. The generally light and variable
winds this morning (00-04kts) are expected to become more S/SE this
afternoon (4-9kts). Main forecast issue will be tonight as a strong
shortwave moves in from the west. Widespread showers along with iso-
lated to scattered thunderstorms should develop. Have included MVFR
ceilings and the mention of VCTS for the overnight hours. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 345 AM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Light to moderate onshore winds are expected today and tomorrow.
Though generally at/below 15 knots, these winds may flirt with
Caution levels at times. Rainfall chances increase late Wednesday
into Thursday as low pressure develops off the lower to middle
Texas Gulf coast. Offshore winds will develop on Friday in the
wake of this low, with onshore winds to return late Saturday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 69 58 69 58 / 10 60 90 60
Houston (IAH) 70 61 69 60 / 10 70 90 60
Galveston (GLS) 68 64 69 62 / 10 60 100 60

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Luchs

[don]

Another round of severe weather tomorrow...?

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail
are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal
Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see
multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through
evening.

...Texas/Louisiana...

An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the
southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern
Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the
sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf
Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection
across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity
will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through
the day.

Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized
convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are
possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into
the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km,
amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg)
suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain
elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which
remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing
showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may
modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first
round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be
possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection.

Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into
central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough
ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the
region. This second round of convection will shift east through the
overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential
will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the
Middle/Upper TX Coast.

Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with
southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized
convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in
forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more
intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though
even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells
developing into one or more clusters with time are expected.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent
across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in
the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX)
to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for
isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
strong gusts.

[brazoriatx]

Another round of severe weather tomorrow...?


spgvvcd2cat.us_sc.png

Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1214 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS TO THE MIDDLE AND UPPER TEXAS COAST...

...SUMMARY...
Isolated severe thunderstorms capable of producing mainly large hail
are expected across portions of northwest, central and coastal
Texas, into coastal Louisiana on Thursday. Some locations may see
multiple rounds of thunderstorm activity from the morning through
evening.

...Texas/Louisiana...

An upper low and attendant trough over northern Mexico and the
southern Rockies is forecast to develop eastward across the Southern
Plains on Thursday. A weak lead shortwave impulse within the
sub-tropic jet oriented across south TX into the western Gulf
Thursday morning will support early convection via warm advection
across parts of the Middle/Upper Texas Coast vicinity. This activity
will spread east across the northwest Gulf and the LA coast through
the day.

Favorable vertical shear across the region will support organized
convection. Initial isolated strong to severe supercells are
possible, evolving into a cluster with time as convection moves into
the Gulf/LA coast by late morning/early afternoon. Steep midlevel
lapse rates and elongated/straight hodographs above around 2-3 km,
amid a deep layer of elevated instability (MUCAPE around 1500 J/kg)
suggest large hail potential. Some of this activity may remain
elevated depending on degree of low-level destabilization, which
remains uncertain given likely cloud cover and ongoing
showers/thunderstorms at the beginning of the period. This may
modulate damaging wind and/or tornado potential with this first
round of thunderstorm activity, but large hail would still be
possible even with elevated, more discrete/cellular convection.

Additional convection is likely to develop across Oklahoma into
central TX by late afternoon/early evening as the upper trough
ejects eastward and stronger large-scale ascent overspreads the
region. This second round of convection will shift east through the
overnight hours toward east TX/western LA, though severe potential
will be focused from northwest TX south to the Hill Country and the
Middle/Upper TX Coast.

Favorable vertical shear across the region, especially with
southward extent toward the Hill Country, will support organized
convection. Weak capping in the 850-700 mb layer is noted in
forecast soundings across parts of the region. This may limit a more
intense/higher coverage severe episode during the evening, though
even elevated convection will pose a large hail risk. Initial cells
developing into one or more clusters with time are expected.
Boundary-layer moisture will remain limited with northward extent
across central into northern TX, with surface dewpoints generally in
the 50s F. Nevertheless, MUCAPE around 500-750 J/kg (northwest TX)
to 1000-1500 J/kg (Hill Country to the coast) will be sufficient for
isolated severe storms capable of producing large hail and locally
strong gusts.

Hope not! I just put up my fence that was knocked down by the last set of storms here in angleton

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 202020
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Calm conditions are in place for today with mid-level clouds
prevailing and slightly below normal temperatures this afternoon
with highs in the upper 60s to low 70s. Things are nice and
tranquil for today, but you`ll notice a gradual change going into
the late afternoon/evening hours that sets the tone for what`s to
come tonight into Thursday. Surface high pressure is already off
to our east, which means onshore flow has made a return. Moisture
advection gets enhanced late this evening as a 25-30 kt LLJ
develops on the eastern side of an approaching coastal trough
(will eventually evolve into a coastal low overnight) tracking
northeastward from the lower TX coast towards the upper TX coast.
On top of that, we`ll have an abundance of PVA from shortwaves
pushing in ahead of the main trough axis moving into western TX
late tonight/early Thursday morning. So, there`ll be plenty of
lift in place for this influx of very elevated moisture (PW values
peaking at 1.5-1.7") to work with.

With deep layer shear (bulk shear 50-60 kts), decent instability
(MUCAPE 1500-2000 J/kg), and steep 700-500mb lapse rates (6.5-
7°C/km), some of the storms on early Thursday morning could become
strong to severe. SPC has outlined areas south of a College
Station- Conroe-Anahuac line in a slight risk (level 2 out of 5)
for severe weather for Thursday and a marginal risk (level 1 out
of 5) elsewhere. There is a marginal risk (level 1 out of 5) for
most of Southeast TX on the Day 1 outlook, but that time period
ends at 6am Thursday morning as far as the outlook goes. Based on
the 12Z CAMs, convection starts to get going generally around
5am-6am CDT Thursday morning so that`s the reason I`ve left out
mentioning that (other than this sentence). The main hazards will
be damaging winds and hail, but an isolated tornado cannot be
ruled out along the coast.

Now let`s go more in-depth on the heavy rainfall threat. WPC has
outlined all of Southeast TX in a marginal risk (level 1 out of 4)
for excessive rainfall on Thursday. While the initial round of
showers/storms will be rather widespread late tonight into early
Thursday afternoon, the bulk of the rainfall looks to fall along
the coast/offshore and across parts of the Brazos Valley/Piney
Woods (late Thursday night). South of I-10 is where the PW values
peak closer to 1.7", which is well above the 90th percentile
(~1.44"). As you can expect, this is where locally heavy rainfall
has the best potential and resultingly the highest rainfall totals
as well. As of right now, widespread rainfall totals of 1-2" are
expected with 2-3" along the coast and in the Piney Woods between
tonight and Thursday night. The Piney Woods gets in on the bulk of
their rainfall on late Thursday night, which takes us into our
second round of showers/storms.

12Z CAM guidance is still showing the potential for a MCS to push
through Southeast TX late Thursday night (around midnight local),
but the exact timing and extent of this convective line remains a
bit uncertain. To add onto that uncertainty, the length of the lull
period during Thursday afternoon/evening plays a HUGE role in the
potential intensity of this line. We`ll become stabilized behind
the first round of storms, so the longer period of time between
that and the second round means the longer amount of time we`ll
have to destabilize again. In short, there`s a lot of mesoscale
factors that play into this forecast. However, the threat of
damaging winds and hail will also be present along this line of
storms as it pushes through. The storm mode looks to initially
favor discrete cells, but quickly becomes linear as additional
storms move in from the northwest. This initially occurs over the
Brazos Valley/Piney Woods, which explains why there is also a QPF
maxima up there (2-3"). These storms are occuring along a frontal
boundary that develops due to another surface low developing in
Central TX. As this low drifts eastward, the storms and
subsequent cold front push through on early Friday morning.
Wraparound moisture from this surface low likely means clouds will
persist into Friday afternoon before clearing out.

Now what does ALL of this mean for temperatures? Well it won`t
make a drastic difference if that`s what you`re wondering...we
are towards the end of March after all! Temperatures today are
topping out in the upper 60s to low 70s. For Thursday, you likely
won`t be outside for too long due to the widespread rainfall
taking up most of the day. If you are outside running to your
car/running inside from the rain, you can expect temperatures
mainly in the upper 60s. Like I mentioned before, there will be a
lull period in rain late Thursday afternoon, but it`ll still be
overcast with wet roads/grass (overall yucky) so you probably
won`t spend much time outside anyway. While a cold front does move
in on early Friday morning, FROPA won`t occur early enough for
the cooler air to really settle in. Both tonight and Thursday
night will feature lows in the upper 50s to low 60s. The weekend
forecast looks downright pleasant in comparison though...check
out the long term discussion below for more!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Compared to Thursday, Friday will be much quieter across the area as
the bulk of the showers and storms will have exited to the east. The
upper-level low will still be swinging through the area Friday
morning, so some isolated showers will be possible through Noon or
early afternoon generally for areas north and east of Lake
Livingston. That disturbance slides out to the east Friday
afternoon ushering in a b-e-a-utiful Saturday across SE Texas with
weak high pressure at the surface and ridging aloft leading to clear
skies, dry conditions, and near seasonal temperatures. Sunday will
continue to be rather pleasant, though with increasing cloud cover
(more on that below).

High temperatures on Friday will be in the low to mid 70s with
overnight lows Friday night down into the low to mid 50s. Slightly
warmer conditions are expected over the weekend with highs in the
mid to upper 70s and lows in the mid to upper 50s Saturday night.
Sunday night will be much warmer with lows only in the mid to upper
60s as southerly flow and WAA increases ahead of our next
disturbance moving through on Monday.

This disturbance will start out as a deepening low pressure system
in the Central Plains on Sunday that will move into the Midwest on
Monday. The associated cold front will extend all the way down
through Texas and passing through SE Texas Monday afternoon into
Monday night - though we may start to see some streamer showers out
ahead of the front as early as Sunday night. Confidence is
relatively high on the timing of this FROPA, we are still a bit too
far out to work out exact impacts. Main takeaway if you are planning
your outfits for next week, may want to make sure an umbrella is a
part of your clothing ensemble for Monday. High temperatures on
Monday will likely be in the upper 70s, but there are quite a few
factors (how overcast the sky is ahead of the front, when exactly
does front move through, etc.)

Drier and cooler conditions are expected on Tuesday in the wake of
Monday`s cold front.

Fowler

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1236 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

VFR conditions and light southerly to southeasterly winds will
prevail into tonight. A coastal weather system moves in beginning
late tonight bringing widespread showers and thunderstorms
especially for terminals south of I-10. This also means that
ceilings and visibility will be on a downward trend to MVFR then
IFR and potentially even LIFR by Thursday morning. There will be
two distinct rounds of showers/storms. The first is late tonight
into Thursday afternoon and this will be the longest period of
rain. There is potential for one or two storms during this period
to become strong to severe with strong winds and hail as the main
hazards. A brief lull in rain is expected late Thursday afternoon
into the evening hours, then a line of storms is expected to push
through during the late evening hours. Strong winds and hail will
be possible with these storms as well, but the exact positioning
and extent of this line is still uncertain. IFR conditions are
expected to prevail throughout the day on Thursday though along
with easterly winds around 10 knots.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Wed Mar 20 2024

Onshore flow will continue into tomorrow night with speeds generally
around 10 to 15kt and occasional gusts to 20kt. Small craft may need
to exercise caution at times due to those gusts. A coastal low will
be developing and moving through the western Gulf late tonight
through tomorrow night bringing scattered showers and storms. There
is a chance for isolated strong to severe thunderstorms producing
strong, gusty winds and hail - and cause locally higher seas. Wave
heights as the coastal low moves through will generally be between 4
and 6 feet, but again locally higher seas will be possible near
strong storms.

Light to moderate offshore winds will develop on Friday and persist
into Saturday night. Caution flag or even Small Craft Advisories may
be needed on may again be necessary on Saturday as occasional gusts
up to 25kt will be possible. Light onshore returns on Sunday. A cold
front is expected to move through the area on Monday bringing
showers/storms. Moderate to strong onshore winds ahead of the front
and then offshore winds after the front will likely lead to Small
Craft Advisories Monday into Monday night.

Fowler

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 59 67 58 73 / 60 90 80 0
Houston (IAH) 60 68 60 76 / 60 90 80 10
Galveston (GLS) 64 68 63 75 / 60 90 70 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...Fowler

[MontgomeryCoWx]

I have a 90% chance of rain and thunderstorms tomorrow. Here's to an overperformance.

[Stratton20]

90% for me tommorow as well, but still not getting my hopes up

[Cpv17]

Models have most of the rain tomorrow in the coastal counties. Not much inland compared to what the coast gets.

[jasons2k]

Models have most of the rain tomorrow in the coastal counties. Not much inland compared to what the coast gets.

Yep.

Also for two nights in a row, the “futurecast” on Fox26 for tomorrow shows the heaviest activity south and east of US-59.

A small band clips the northern half in the overnight tomorrow.

[DoctorMu]

I have a 90% chance of rain and thunderstorms tomorrow. Here's to an overperformance.

Same here. We could get gapped again, but fingers crossed. It will probably rain, because I did not have time to mow today.

[davidiowx]

Models have most of the rain tomorrow in the coastal counties. Not much inland compared to what the coast gets.

Yep.

Also for two nights in a row, the “futurecast” on Fox26 for tomorrow shows the heaviest activity south and east of US-59.

A small band clips the northern half in the overnight tomorrow.

Yea the mesos are pretty much in agreement about keeping the heaviest/strongest storms along the coast and offshore. Time will tell though, as I think this is a volatile and hard to predict setup with the jet. Which has been a consistent problem as of late.

[davidiowx]

Looking like a nice rainy start to the day. Mowed the grass last night so I’ll take it!

[tireman4]

00
FXUS64 KHGX 211202
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
702 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

A typical springtime week around Southeast Texas, with roughly
seasonable temperatures, and a mix of fair weather stretches and
windows for showers and storms. Of course, springtime storms
frequently carry potential for severe weather and/or flooding, and
right now is no different. Here are some key points for today and
beyond:

- Showers and thunderstorms become something to watch for very
early this morning, and carry through the day today. The bulk of
our area has a slight risk for severe weather (threat level 2 of
5), with a marginal risk (level 1 of 5) around and north of Lake
Livingston. The primary hazard from the strongest storms today
will be large hail. Damaging wind gusts are a secondary threat.
A brief tornado can`t be ruled out near the coast, but even
there is a tertiary threat behind the other two hazards.
- In addition to severe weather, locally heavy rainfall is
possible from the day`s strongest storms. Should the heaviest
rains fall over vulnerable, poor-drainage locations, some
isolated spots of ponding and minor flooding could emerge.
- After a weekend of fair weather, look for another shot for rain
and storms on Monday with a frontal passage. In a bit of a
mirror to today`s activity, it is beginning to look as if the
focus for Monday`s action will be farther north towards the
Pineywoods.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Well...

Not a lot going on over SE TX at this time, but this should be chang-
ing soon enough given the trends to our west and southwest. All this
activity will continue to move in this direction through the morning
(strengthening/becoming organized with time). These rains/storms are
courtesy of the approaching mid/upper trof from the west and likely
a strong short-wave embedded in the southern stream jet. As such, we
should be looking at two rounds of storms for today...the first now,
and another just a bit later this evening/tonight.

Per the bulk of latest hi-res models, the strongest development with
this first round could be concentrated more across the southern half
of the CWA and the nearshore waters...with mainly widespread showers
and isolated thunderstorms for inland areas. However, due to the un-
certainty with this track, portions of SE TX are in a Slight Risk of
strong to severe storms (level 2 of 5) for today. A Marginal Risk is
in place elsewhere for the CWA (level 1 of 5). Deep layer shear com-
bined with deepening moisture and daytime heating are indicating the
primary severe weather threat as large hail, with an isolated threat
of damaging winds or a tornado with the formation of a supercell.

As this system tracks east of the CWA this afternoon, we are likely
going to see the second round of organized storms this evening into
the overnight hours. But unlike the first round, the better chances
of storms will be over our northern half of the CWA (given the path
of the trough aloft). The potential intensity of this next round of
activity is going to be very dependent on the timing and other meso
scale factors with the earlier storms. However, will be keeping the
mention of severe with these storms as a precaution.

By Fri morning, POPs will be falling as skies begin to clear. A cold
front in the wake of the exiting mid/upper trof will bring drier and
cooler air back into SE TX through the day. But...wrap around clouds
with some embedded isolated showers will be possible across northern
parts of the area Fri morning before clearing by the afternoon. Cool
and dry conditions will prevail areawide for Fri night.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

This weekend will mostly be an activity in trying to peg
temperature trends, as stacked ridging should be passing across
the region Saturday into early Sunday. This will keep weather
fair, and mostly sunny for the most part. That should start to
change on Sunday as the ridge moves off, and more zonal flow sets
up aloft. At the surface, onshore flow resumes Sunday morning,
boosting low level moisture and beginning the cycle anew.

On the troughy side of this cycle, guidance is coming into some
more agreement on how things evolve for Monday. The incoming upper
trough looks somewhat disjointed across the deterministic
guidance - which is somewhat interesting, given that the scenario
is somewhat complex. Adding into the chorus, taking a look at the
ensemble cluster analysis mostly just seems to back up what the
deterministics are showing. Each cluster is a little different in
its placement of heaviest precipitation, but all feature a pattern
that would occur from this particular upper level setup. The
primary cluster is perhaps a bit slower than the multi-ensemble
mean, but that`s about it. It is worth noting that there may be a
bit of a dispersiveness concern here, as a solid majority of Euro
members are in the primary cluster, half the Canadian members are
in the second cluster, and half of the GEFS members are in the
third cluster. But given the relatively minor differences at play
here, I`ve not got a ton of heartburn about that.

What this boils down to is that a faster, lead impulse/vort max
comes spurs lee cyclogenesis more in the Central Plains to
Oklahoma Panhandle, still ejecting it towards the Great Lakes
Sunday night and Monday. Meanwhile, a slower, trailing vort max
digs into the Big Bend, or even deeper into Northern Mexico. With
the main impulse so far north, I`m looking up to our northern edge
from Lake Livingston up into the Pineywoods for the most vigorous
convection along the front on Monday. As you head farther south,
I`d expect capping to be an issue, and simply a greater distance
from the better upper support to dwindle our storms down to
showers, and eventually perhaps even to nothing down around
Matagorda Bay.

As that trailing vort max rounds the trough base and ejects
northeastward, we may need to keep an eye on Monday night. I keep
slight chance PoPs lingering into late Monday night to account for
this, though I`m much less confident in how this goes given that
the surface front will be through, with northwest flow in the
boundary layer. I`d expect that if we get anything at all, it
would be more in nature of elevated development of showers and
maybe an isolated thunderstorm in there. In looking back at the
cluster analysis, the primary (Euro-dominated) cluster, as well as
the fourth cluster, is pessimistic about this and staying drier
than the grand mean. But the following two clusters, accounting
for 53 percent of the ensemble members, do indicate we`ll squeeze
something out from this trailing vort, so there`s a chance my
slight PoPs might be a bit underdone.

Tuesday will be another post-frontal day with generally fair
weather and a clearing sky. That clearing sky will largely
counteract whatever post-frontal cold advection we can manage, so
if you`re only looking at high temps, you`d be forgiven for not
even noticing a front went through. The fingerprint shows up in
the overnight lows, as drier air and a mostly clear sky will allow
for effective radiational cooling. Monday night and Tuesday night
should see lows back down into the 50s for most, with even some
upper 40s up in our north. Finally, Wednesday *should* be another
warm, fair weather day. But, another vort max will shoot through
the still-troughy wave pattern that day, and some guidance is
aggressive enough to produce some light, high-based rain. I`m not
buying it, and chose to keep PoPs below 10 percent and even keep
sky conditions mostly sunny. But if that changes in the future,
let`s all try to remember that I at least mentioned here, right?

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Widespread showers/thunderstorms will persist across SE TX for much
of today as a strong upper level disturbance moves in from the west.
We`ll be seeing lowering ceilings/visibilities through the next few
hours as all this activity strengthens and moves into the CWA. Have
tweaked the timing of TEMPO groups for our southern terminals based
on current trends (from IAH to the coast). Have also switched times
for these TEMPO groups at our northern terminals to tonight (as per
the passage of the main upper trough). And from SPC`s Day 1 outlook,
there`s a potential for severe weather with the storms this morning
(with large hail as the main threat). Safe to say, there`s probably
going to be amendments through the day. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 349 AM CDT Thu Mar 21 2024

Winds on the waters are largely in the 10 to 15 knot range early
this morning, but some folks are bumping right up against the
caution flag threshold. Indeed, with the pressure gradient
expecting to tighten with the developing/incoming low pressure
center, I have gone ahead and put up caution flags for Galveston
Bay and the 0-60 NM waters adjacent to it through tonight. Both
winds, and even some seas of 5-6 feet on the Gulf can be expected,
and of course, locally higher near any of the day`s thunderstorms.
Speaking of that low, expect showers and storms to increase and
overspread the waters from the southwest, then wind down from west
to east over the next 24 hours. High-res models suggest the
heaviest rains in the area are likely to fall over the Gulf
waters, so that will be another hazard to consider, particularly
in the strongest storms which will be capable of producing gusty
winds, hail, and even waterspouts. All thunderstorms will be able
to produce locally higher winds and seas.

In the wake of the exiting low pressure, light to moderate
offshore winds will emerge Friday, persisting into Saturday night,
before onshore winds return ahead of the next weathermaker, an
incoming cold front. Caution flags, and even a small craft
advisory seem likely at some point late in the weekend and Monday
before the next frontal passage.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 65 57 71 52 / 80 70 0 0
Houston (IAH) 67 59 74 56 / 80 60 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 68 63 73 59 / 90 40 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through this evening for
GMZ335-355-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Luchs
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Luchs

[Cromagnum]

Hopefully everyone that didn't get a drink last week can get one today. I'm about to drive through some of this slop though. I know Angleton doesn't want anymore surprises.

[DoctorMu]

This radar looks suspiciously familiar, brought to you by the Gap Band: