April 2024

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 111121
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
621 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Quieter weather in store for today as high pressure continues to
settle in and northwesterly flow pulls in drier and cooler air.
Highs for today will be in the 70s to near 80 degrees under sunny
skies. Persistent northwesterly flow and clear skies will enhance
cooling tonight, leading to lows in the upper 40s to mid 50s.

High pressure will continue off to the east on Friday, and winds
will become east to southeasterly as a result. This will draw in
warm moist air and allow temperatures to warm into the upper 70s to
low 80s. Mostly sunny skies will prevail through the day; however,
will see a gradual increase in clouds later in the day into the
nighttime hours. Lows will drop into the 50s inland and into the 60s
along the coast.

Adams

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

High pressure off to our east and lower pressures to the lee of the
Rockies can be expected through this period. Onshore flow will be
established with this pattern and will occasionally bring us periods
of increased/gusty south to southeast winds along with increasing humidities
and warming temperatures. While some of our far northern counties could
see some rain generally in a late Monday through early Tuesday time
period, the rest of Southeast Texas should stay dry until after this
long term period.

High temperatures in the low 80s on Saturday will warm into a low to
mid 80s range on Sunday and into a mid to upper 80s range for the rest
of the period. Low temperatures on Sunday will be mostly in the low
to mid 60s. Monday will be the last morning with readings in the 60s
across much of the area (m id to upper 60s). Starting on Tuesday, look
for lows to bottom out in the low 70s.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Low-level wind shear at all TAF sites expected to continue through
around 14-15Z. For the rest of the day today, expect winds to be
gusty out of the northwest with gusts of 20-25 knots. Winds will
relax this evening through the overnight hours. CIGs will remain
VFR through the entire period.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 238 AM CDT Thu Apr 11 2024

Moderate to strong offshore winds and elevated seas will decrease as
the day progresses today. Onshore flow returns on Friday, strengthens
over the weekend and persist into at least the first half of next week.
Caution flags are likely, and advisories might be needed.

42

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 51 79 53 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 80 53 80 56 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 63 74 66 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM CDT this morning for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 1 PM CDT this
afternoon for GMZ330-335.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM CDT this afternoon for GMZ350-
355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42

[Pas_Bon]

My first weather event was experiencing the eye of Hurricane Danny in 1986 in Vermilion Parish, LA as a 6yr old. We stayed at home and I was mesmerized by the event. I've been through several hurricanes since (including Katrina in NOLA). As far as wind goes, the worst I've experienced was Lili in Abbeville, LA in 2002. Being stuck in NOLA for Katrina (I was required to stay at Ochsner Hospital in NOLA) was horrific on so many levels. The wind was bad. The after-effects are well-documented and need not be re-hashed. I can remember eagerly awaiting the tropical updates at :48 each hour on TWC as a child with John Hope and the other TWC mets at the time.

[djmike]

Woohoo! Finally! Entire Eastside of Texas is out of all levels of drought! Hopefully we can maintain this during our summer months.

[don]

Updated LOCAL severe weather reports from Wednesday morning.Numerous reports of wind damage in SE Texas and two confirmed tornadoes.

CaptSure.PNG (15.73 KiB) Viewed 1189 times

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temp2snip.png (51.34 KiB) Viewed 1189 times

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[don]

The next potential severe weather/heavy rain event to watch locally is around the 20th of the month.As another slow moving front moves in with an active subtropical jet.

[DoctorMu]

We were lucky Tuesday night. A hail cell was heading our way, turned south and fizzled. It must have been the tarp I put over the car.

[Cpv17]

Both the GEFS and EPS have a decent signal for rain in the medium to long range.

[srainhoutx]

We had snow this afternoon across our higher elevations with a mix of rain and snow at the house. More cold expected late next week. That probably spells a severe weather potential across portions of Texas.

[Cpv17]

We had snow this afternoon across our higher elevations with a mix of rain and snow at the house. More cold expected late next week. That probably spells a severe weather potential across portions of Texas.

You must be at a very high elevation cuz it’s not supposed to snow that far south in mid April. Me personally, I hope it doesn’t get below 50°F here till November. I’m done with the cold and very much enjoying the 70’s and 80’s for highs that we’ve had here lately. You can keep all that cold there where you live lol

[don]

We had snow this afternoon across our higher elevations with a mix of rain and snow at the house. More cold expected late next week. That probably spells a severe weather potential across portions of Texas.

You must be at a very high elevation cuz it’s not supposed to snow that far south in mid April. Me personally, I hope it doesn’t get below 50°F here till November. I’m done with the cold and very much enjoying the 70’s and 80’s for highs that we’ve had here lately. You can keep all that cold there where you live lol

The Appalachians are pretty much in its own climate zone compared to the surrounding areas.The northwest flow also helps to create lift along the mountains producing localized snow showers.This sometimes leads to very localized areas of heavy snow accumulations in the Appalachians depending on elevation.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 na send some of that cooler air down here, in a few months we will be begging for the next front to arrive

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 na send some of that cooler air down here, in a few months we will be begging for the next front to arrive

Nah! Give me 50’s and 60’s for lows and 70’s and 80’s for highs and I’m good! You want cold then go move north lol

[jasons2k]

Cpv17 na send some of that cooler air down here, in a few months we will be begging for the next front to arrive

Nah! Give me 50’s and 60’s for lows and 70’s and 80’s for highs and I’m good! You want cold then go move north lol

This.

I think the mods should move our weather stories to its own thread. Would be cool to have a dedicated there for that.

Looks like a beautiful weekend.

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 na send some of that cooler air down here, in a few months we will be begging for the next front to arrive

Nah! Give me 50’s and 60’s for lows and 70’s and 80’s for highs and I’m good! You want cold then go move north lol

This.

I think the mods should move our weather stories to its own thread. Would be cool to have a dedicated there for that.

Looks like a beautiful weekend.

Too windy but other than that it’ll be fine. Be glad when these windy days come to an end. Should be soon.

[DoctorMu]

I actually like the wind. It makes warm spring days feel cooler.

I wish there were more wind here in the early and mid Fall: late September through mid November.

[Cpv17]

I actually like the wind. It makes warm spring days feel cooler.

I wish there were more wind here in the early and mid Fall: late September through mid November.

It’s bad when you live out in the open like I do but when you live in town or the city you barely notice it. I’m fine with the wind up to 15mph but anything past that you can have it.

[DoctorMu]

I actually like the wind. It makes warm spring days feel cooler.

I wish there were more wind here in the early and mid Fall: late September through mid November.

It’s bad when you live out in the open like I do but when you live in town or the city you barely notice it. I’m fine with the wind up to 15mph but anything past that you can have it.

We definitely have it in College Station. It's much windier here than in Houston.

[Cpv17]

I actually like the wind. It makes warm spring days feel cooler.

I wish there were more wind here in the early and mid Fall: late September through mid November.

It’s bad when you live out in the open like I do but when you live in town or the city you barely notice it. I’m fine with the wind up to 15mph but anything past that you can have it.

We definitely have it in College Station. It's much windier here than in Houston.

Shoot, come out to the country. My place is surrounded by cotton and corn fields lol nothing to block it.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 151034
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
534 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Ridge axis slides off to the east today as an upper level low moves
over the Four Corners region. We`ll still feel the influence from
the departing ridge with a robust and deep subsidence inversion
layer aloft from ~900-750mb persisting that`ll prevent anything
other than clouds from developing. Southwesterly flow aloft does
become established today, but don`t expect that to be of any note
today...it`ll be a bit of a different story on Tuesday. With surface
low pressure deepening in the Central Plains today, we`ll see a
fairly strong LLJ begin to develop across the Brazos Valley this
afternoon. By tonight, this LLJ will strengthen up to 35-45 knots,
so expect winds to increase later today and linger into the
overnight hours as stronger winds aloft mix to the surface. Cloud
cover will stick around through both the daytime and nighttime
hours, but we`ll still manage to reach the low 80s this afternoon.
Temperatures tonight will bottom out in the upper 60s/low 70s.

On Tuesday, a cold front will approach the region from the west in
association with the previously mentioned surface low...but don`t
get too excited. This front will stall out to our west, but it will
cause a surge in moisture due to convergence along the frontal
boundary. This will lead to PW values climbing to the 1.5"-1.9"
range by Tuesday. Combine that with PVA from the southwesterly flow
aloft and a frontal boundary knocking at the door, and we have a
slight chance of showers/storms for portions of the Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods. It appears that we`ll catch the tail end of a
broken line of storms and the coverage of these looks to be spotty
at best. With the lack of large scale ascent, the severe threat has
been downgraded and now we are no longer in a marginal risk for
Tuesday. Areas around and south of I-10 are expected to remain dry
on Tuesday. As far as temperatures go, prefrontal heating will allow
daytime temperatures to reach the low to mid 80s. Lingering cloud
cover overnight combined with dew points surging into the low 70s
means low temperatures in the low 70s. We may have to monitor for
record high minimum temperatures as it should be a fairly close call!

Batiste

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

This long term period still looks warm with steadily increasing humidities
and a gradual return of rain chances. Through Saturday, we`ll generally
have lows in the 60s/70s and highs in the 80s (a few spots on Thursday
and especially on Friday could have a high of 90 degrees). The forecast
now keeps the cold front out of the area until the Saturday afternoon-
Sunday morning time period, and this is the boundary that does cool
the area back down on Saturday night (lows in the 50s north and 60s
central/south) and Sunday (highs in the 70s). As for rain, low chances
are back in the forecast starting Thursday afternoon up north with better
chances coming over the weekend with the approach/passage of the cold
front. Cannot totally rule out any activity developing outside these
periods in association with any passing strong shortwaves in the west
to southwest flow aloft.

42

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 534 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

MVFR ceilings will persist throughout the day along with breezy
southeasterly winds sustained around 15 knots with gusts up to 25
knots at times. There may be a brief window in the afternoon hours
where ceilings bounce between VFR/MVFR, but widespread MVFR
ceilings push in again going into tonight. Model guidance is
showing some ceilings reaching IFR territory, but winds may be too
elevated overnight for ceilings to drop that low. Another round
of breezy southerly/southeasterly winds is in store for Tuesday.

Batiste

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Moderate south to southeast winds will persist into the middle of the
week with winds and seas occasionally requiring caution or advisory
flags, especially at times on Monday and Tuesday. Lowering onshore
winds and seas are expected Wednesday through Thursday night.

42

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 239 AM CDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Due to the rainfall from the previous week and its subsequent
runoff, a couple of River Flood Warnings remain in effect as of
early Monday morning. The Navasota River at Normangee (NGET2) has
already crested but will remain in minor flood stage through early
Tuesday morning. The Trinity River at Riverside (RVRT2) will remain
in minor flood stage until further notice. There are also multiple
other gauges that have crested into action stage along the Brazos
and Trinity Rivers.

You can monitor current and forecast conditions at this weblink:
water.weather.gov/ahps2/forecasts.php?wfo=HGX

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 82 69 83 72 / 0 10 20 0
Houston (IAH) 82 71 85 73 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 77 71 78 71 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Batiste
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Batiste
MARINE...42

[Cpv17]

Looks like most of the rain will stay in north Texas over the next week. I think most of the action down here will be more isolated but a few areas could pick up a decent rain or two.