April 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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tireman4
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Will April showers bring May flowers? What shall this month bring?
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Ptarmigan
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April can get quite wet in a post El Nino year.
Thundersleet
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Yeah, tell all of us about it, Ptarmigan. Do not tell all of us about it. Flooding rains or rainfall no doubt, huh?
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captainbarbossa19
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ImageHere comes the rain again.
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DoctorMu
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Potentially clouds and rain could interfere with viewing the April 8 eclipse...but the rain will likely be light.

So, my long term progs are

1. Another dry Spring

2. Mega tropical season and potential landfall in the western Gulf (TX, LA) of multiple major hurricanes.
Cpv17
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April looks like it could be wet according to the CPC.
Cromagnum
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Happy Easter weekend all.
Cpv17
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I’m seeing some potential for some severe weather once we get past the first week of April.
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don
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Mar 30, 2024 2:55 pm I’m seeing some potential for some severe weather once we get past the first week of April.
Yep that's the storm system I was referring to the other day.Models today have come in a little more aggressive with the system and show a a large and organized warm sector over a big portion of the state. Could be an active year for severe weather in the southern plains if this pattern continues through the season.Unfortunately though this storm system may ruin the solar eclipse in the state... (My post from a couple of days ago below)
FYI It's far out but I'm watching the 2nd week of April for the possibility of a significant cutoff low in the southwest/southern plains.Combined with an active subtropical jet, such a setup could lead to a multi day severe weather & heavy rain threat in the plains.Still far out so nothing to worry about at the moment though,just something to watch.😉
Cromagnum
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We'll see about future storm seasons. I'm on the hook for a potential job in North Carolina. One more phone call to go, but so far everyone wants to fly me up.
Stratton20
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I swear if rain ruins the eclipse im done, mother nature can be a true jerk sometimes, but im going to remain optimistic that we stay dry, fingers crossed models speed up the timing of the system to before the eclipse
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 12:18 pm I swear if rain ruins the eclipse im done, mother nature can be a true jerk sometimes, but im going to remain optimistic that we stay dry, fingers crossed models speed up the timing of the system to before the eclipse
Not looking good. Tuesday through Saturday look ideal, then FAIL.

Image
Stratton20
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DoctorMu plenty of time for it to change, i swear rain ruins everything
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tireman4
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Week ahead
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Pas_Bon
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Mar 31, 2024 3:11 pm DoctorMu plenty of time for it to change, i swear rain ruins everything
Until we get to where we really need it badly in June, then it’s like, “nah, y’all are good until October.”
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tireman4
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000
FXUS64 KHGX 011144
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
644 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

An upper level trough is expected to sweep eastward across the
Four Corners towards Texas today. As it does, a 40-50 knot LLJ
will develop overhead, bringing gusty conditions and further
amplifying WAA. High-res models show 850mb temperatures rising to
18-22C, with the NAEFS and GEFS indicating 850mb temperatures to
be above the 99th climatological percentile, approaching the all-
time max for this time of the year. This should bring highs in the
upper 70s to 80s across the region this afternoon. Robust capping
in place around 950-875mb should suppress shower/storm
development during the day.

A cold front associated with the aforementioned upper level
system will approach SE Texas Monday night. Winds look to diminish
ahead of the front, with moisture pooling as lower 70s dewpoints
spread inland from the coastline. This could bring patchy fog
across portions of SE Texas Monday night/early Tuesday morning
ahead of the cold front. Scattered showers/storms will accompany
the frontal passage overnight through Tuesday morning. Sufficient
instability/shear will still be available further northwest over
portions of the Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area as these storms
move through. Therefore, SPC has these locations under a Marginal
to Slight Risk of severe weather tonight/early Tuesday. If any
stronger storms manage to pull together, damaging winds and hail
will be the primary concern.

The front should push offshore by Tuesday afternoon, with dry,
clear and breezy conditions developing in it`s wake. Temperatures
will still be fairly warm during the day on Tuesday, with highs
expected to reach the the 70s/80s. For overnight temperatures,
drier conditions should allow for lows to drop into the mid
40s/50s.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Pleasant spring weather is anticipated during most of the medium
range with dry weather and temperatures near normal for early
April standards.

Wednesday: Dry and breezy. Winds will gradually diminish in the
evening as pressure gradient relaxes. Highs will generally be into
the upper 60s to mid 70s. A cool night can be expected with
overnight lows in the 40s and low 50s.

Thursday into Saturday: Upper level ridge across the central
CONUS continues to amplify some during this period with the ridge
axis beginning to shift east of our area on Saturday. This pattern
will induce west to southwest flow aloft that combined with
southerly surface flow, a warming trend can be expected. Highs
will gradually climb into the upper 70s to low 80s by Saturday.

Sunday and next Monday: Deterministics and ensemble means
continue to show more confidence in a wetter/cloudy forecast next
Sunday into early next week as an upper trough moves over the
Plains next Sunday into early next week. Continued with increasing
rain and storm chances during this time-frame.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

MVFR CIGS will gradually clear this morning as gusty southerly
winds develop across SE Texas. VFR conditions prevail through the
afternoon, then MVFR/IFR CIGS begin to fill in once again this
evening ahead of an approaching cold front. Areas closer to the
coast could see patchy fog develop ahead of this front. The cold
front should push through KCLL shortly after midnight, bringing
showers and isolated thunderstorms as it pushes towards the
coast. Improving CIGS and northwesterly winds can be expected
behind the front.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 323 AM CDT Mon Apr 1 2024

Onshore winds and seas will continue to strengthen/build today as
the surface pressure gradient tightens ahead of an approaching
cold front. Conditions are progged to remain a tad below advisory
levels, except over the offshore waters where building seas around
6 to 7 ft can be anticipated. Small Craft Advisories (offshore)
and Small Craft Should Exercise Caution conditions are in effect
through late this evening. Winds should weaken late tonight into
Tuesday; therefore, patchy sea fog will be possible prior to the
front. Winds and seas will strengthen/build again Tuesday night
into Wednesday with the passage of the front. Advisories will
likely be needed across all Gulf waters. Light winds and low seas
can be expected Wednesday into the weekend.

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 85 65 79 47 / 0 40 0 0
Houston (IAH) 86 70 84 52 / 0 30 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 78 69 79 56 / 0 20 40 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution through late tonight for
GMZ330-335-350-355-375.

Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 7 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ370.

Small Craft Advisory until 1 AM CDT Tuesday for GMZ370.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
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jasons2k
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I hope the weather works out next Monday but it’s not looking great.

Honestly, unless you’ve invested something into the event (hotel, camping, etc) we don’t have anything to complain about. It’s a bonus event for us. Think about folks from places like Germany who invested thousands to fly here. They have a reason to be upset; we really don’t.

We were going to Dripping Springs but looking more like we’ll just stay put. Not worth the trouble if it’s cloudy or wet.
Cpv17
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jasons2k wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:15 am I hope the weather works out next Monday but it’s not looking great.

Honestly, unless you’ve invested something into the event (hotel, camping, etc) we don’t have anything to complain about. It’s a bonus event for us. Think about folks from places like Germany who invested thousands to fly here. They have a reason to be upset; we really don’t.

We were going to Dripping Springs but looking more like we’ll just stay put. Not worth the trouble if it’s cloudy or wet.
What’s going to be so special about it? I don’t fully understand the hype about it. I’ve never heard of people traveling hundreds or thousands of miles for something like this. Me personally, I don’t really care. I guess cuz I don’t really understand what’s going on.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 because its a really cool sight watching the sky go completely dark for a bit during the middle of the day, the rain can buzz off, we dont want or need it on that day, mother nature can be a real jerk, thats another reason why i hate the rain sometimes, its always seems like it occurs on the worst days possible when some big event is gonna happen
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jasons2k
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Cpv17 wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 12:04 pm
jasons2k wrote: Mon Apr 01, 2024 10:15 am I hope the weather works out next Monday but it’s not looking great.

Honestly, unless you’ve invested something into the event (hotel, camping, etc) we don’t have anything to complain about. It’s a bonus event for us. Think about folks from places like Germany who invested thousands to fly here. They have a reason to be upset; we really don’t.

We were going to Dripping Springs but looking more like we’ll just stay put. Not worth the trouble if it’s cloudy or wet.
What’s going to be so special about it? I don’t fully understand the hype about it. I’ve never heard of people traveling hundreds or thousands of miles for something like this. Me personally, I don’t really care. I guess cuz I don’t really understand what’s going on.
Because experiencing totality in a given location is extremely rare. Here is some info. about this year’s eclipse:

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_e ... il_8,_2024

Also, about a million visitors are expected in Texas next week. Some counties and municipalities have preemptively declared an emergency due to the expected crowds and traffic.

If the weather’s bad, the crowds should be less.
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