April 2024

[Cromagnum]

As expected. Didn't get a thing and it blew up the moment it went east of me.

Where are you located?
Location doesn't show up on desktop version of website for some reason.

Rosharon. I got about 5 minutes of rain at daybreak and that's all she wrote.

[jasons2k]

I got 1.76” at the casa. We needed it.

[tireman4]

Flooding along 59

[don]

Picked up 1.12” here, portions of east Harris County picked up 3-6 inches yesterday.

[869MB]

This current storm complex is very reminiscent of the May 2015 Memorial Day Flooding event with this one shifted to the north & east with less areal coverage and a shorter duration as compared to the 2015 event.

https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxev ... 150524.pdf


https://blog.hmns.org/2015/05/memorial ... henomenon/



IMG_1960.png

Yep it is a similar setup indeed, I hope the complex starts moving faster once its over the urban areas.If not there may be some ugly street flooding in the metro.

Yeah I started not to make that comparison because I simply forgot just how widespread and impactful that Memorial Day Weekend Flooding event was across Texas.

[DoctorMu]

Picked up 1.12” here, portions of east Harris County picked up 3-6 inches yesterday.

Went as expected then. 6.41 inches was our final tally. Storms kept forming over the house. Fortunately, after midnight the MCV moved south...

...but the analog for me in terms of round after round after round of heavy rain in CLL was October 1994. Except, that was a much longer entraining - we had 18 inches of rain in 18 hours! The back yard filled up like a pool and I kicked down fences to the front yard to let the water out. Unbelievable.

[DoctorMu]

Man, it feels like Louisiana out there! Hot and drippy with only a breath of wind.

[Stratton20]

Didnt even get a drop of rain from those storms, pathetic, that’s why i go with the saying “ if it looks too be good to be true, it usually is”

[don]

Didnt even get a drop of rain from those storms, pathetic, that’s why i go with the saying “ if it looks too be good to be true, it usually is”

It went as expected, the rain was supposed to be along and east of I-45 with the MCS last night and that's exactly what happened.The western half of Harris county got barely anything while the eastern half of the county saw anywhere from 1-6 inches of rain.

Are y'all looking at mesoscale models? The storms to the Northeast are the same storms that will congeal into a MCS and move southeast with the front late tonight/overnight.This MCS looks to effect areas along and east of I-45 all the way to the coast.I'm not concerned about severe weather in metro Houston, but looking forward to some heavy rain even if only brief.

rainfall.png (216.26 KiB) Viewed 476 times

[Cromagnum]

Sucks that it's going to take something tropical to get coastal areas any rain.

[Cpv17]

Sucks that it's going to take something tropical to get coastal areas any rain.

I’m afraid that’s what it’s gonna take.

[Ptarmigan]

This current storm complex is very reminiscent of the May 2015 Memorial Day Flooding event with this one shifted to the north & east with less areal coverage and a shorter duration as compared to the 2015 event.

https://www.weather.gov/media/ewx/wxev ... 150524.pdf


https://blog.hmns.org/2015/05/memorial ... henomenon/



IMG_1960.png

I thought of the Memorial Day 2015 Flood.

2015 Memorial Day Flood In Harris County, Texas
https://hurricane.egr.uh.edu/sites/hurr ... 4-2015.pdf

[DoctorMu]

Sucks that it's going to take something tropical to get coastal areas any rain.

I’m afraid that’s what it’s gonna take.

There is potential for sea breeze showers in May to mid June. We'll see.

Wednesday - Friday has a 30-50% shot of rain each day, including the coastal areas like Angleton.

[Ptarmigan]

Picked up 1.12” here, portions of east Harris County picked up 3-6 inches yesterday.

Went as expected then. 6.41 inches was our final tally. Storms kept forming over the house. Fortunately, after midnight the MCV moved south...

...but the analog for me in terms of round after round after round of heavy rain in CLL was October 1994. Except, that was a much longer entraining - we had 18 inches of rain in 18 hours! The back yard filled up like a pool and I kicked down fences to the front yard to let the water out. Unbelievable.

October 1994 Flood was really widespread. It is one of the largest flood events in America.
https://damfailures.org/wp-content/uplo ... Harvey.pdf

Floods in Southeast Texas, October 1994
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-073-94/pdf/FS-94-073.pdf

Catastrophic Rainfall and Flooding in Texas
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0_co_2.xml

Kickapoo Creek easily had 25 inches of rain or higher in 24 hours.

[Cpv17]

The 0z HRRR is looking interesting towards the end of its run.

[DoctorMu]

Picked up 1.12” here, portions of east Harris County picked up 3-6 inches yesterday.

Went as expected then. 6.41 inches was our final tally. Storms kept forming over the house. Fortunately, after midnight the MCV moved south...

...but the analog for me in terms of round after round after round of heavy rain in CLL was October 1994. Except, that was a much longer entraining - we had 18 inches of rain in 18 hours! The back yard filled up like a pool and I kicked down fences to the front yard to let the water out. Unbelievable.

October 1994 Flood was really widespread. It is one of the largest flood events in America.
https://damfailures.org/wp-content/uplo ... Harvey.pdf

Floods in Southeast Texas, October 1994
https://pubs.usgs.gov/fs/fs-073-94/pdf/FS-94-073.pdf

Catastrophic Rainfall and Flooding in Texas
https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journ ... 0_co_2.xml

Kickapoo Creek easily had 25 inches of rain or higher in 24 hours.

San Jacinto , Brazos, and Trinity Rivers were way over their banks. FEMA was incredibly busy. EPAC Hurricane Rosa remnants and moisture overran the state. The SJT sprayed gasoline on the fire.

chrome-extension://efaidnbmnnnibpcajpcglclefindmkaj/https://semspub.epa.gov/work/06/9108108.pdf

[tireman4]

Matt Lanza
@mattlanza
·
9h
Appears tomorrow may be a mostly quiet day around Houston. Wednesday has a little more potential perhaps.

[tireman4]

000
FXUS64 KHGX 301131
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
631 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Light winds, plenty of near-surface moisture, and mostly clear skies
are allowing for areas of fog and stratus early this morning. Latest
nighttime microphysics satellite imagery show a widespread deck of
stratus surging northward across the Coastal Bend/Matagorda area.
Further north, fog continues to develop, especially across our far
northern counties. With dewpoint depression values near 1-2 degrees;
expect fog developing and expanding in the next few hours. Fog and
stratus should gradually burn/lift through mid/late morning as
daytime boundary layer mixing occurs.

No significant weather impacts are expected today. Surface high
pressure centered to our east will continue to surge warm and humid
southerly flow across SE TX. Slightly warmer temperatures that
yesterday can be expected today with highs mainly into the mid to
upper 80s. Return surface flow and zonal flow aloft will bring
different impulses of energy that combines with diurnal heating will
be enough to produce isolated to scattered rain and storms. The best
chances will be south of I-10.

Stratus will make another surge north bringing back cloudy
conditions. There is also a potential for fog; however with
winds slightly stronger the coverage should be patchy.

Rain and storm chances continue on Wednesday thanks to daytime
heating, increasing PWs and weak mid-level shortwaves. A stronger
shortwave trough will move over the Plains by Wednesday, reaching
our western counties by late Wednesday night. This system will bring
the best potential for showers and storms during the short-term
period.

JM

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

A series of mid to upper level disturbances along with mid level
vort maxes will continue to pass through Southeast TX during the
second half of the work week. Southeasterly flow will prevail
through much of the long term period and will continue to
transport pulses of low level moisture into the region. PWs can be
as high as 1.8 inches at times. With sufficient moisture and
instability in place, along with the mid to upper level
disturbances passing overhead, showers and thunderstorms are
expected to develop through the end of the work week. For the
weekend, NBM solution has less chances of rain with showers and
storms to be more isolated in nature.

By the start of the upcoming week, the global models indicate
drier conditions as mid level ridging builds over the region. A
consequence to this, would be warmer temperatures. We will have
temperatures warm a degree or two each day but staying in the 80s.
However, by early next week, we could begin to see the highs
reaching the upper 80s to low 90s and with dewpoints in the upper
60s to low 70s, it will feel fairly humid, in particular during
the morning hours.

24

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 625 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Widespread LIFR and IFR conditions due to reduced visibility and
low clouds will continue through 13-15Z. Fog and clouds should
gradually dissipate/lift by mid-morning, with VFR conditions
expected for the rest of the day. Today`s winds should remain from
the SSE winds around 7 to 10 knots. Another period of MVFR to LIFR
conditions due to fog and stratus is again expected tonight.

JM

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 301 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Seas will continue to subside today, however, small craft should
continue to exercise caution as seas diminish throughout the day.
Generally moderate onshore winds are expected to develop Wednesday
night and continue through much of the forecast period. This will
result in seas of 4 to 6 feet over the offshore waters and 2 to 5
feet over the nearshore waters. Also, strong rip currents could
occur across the Gulf facing beaches over the next few days.
Periods of showers and storms can be expected through Friday.

24

&&

.HYDROLOGY...

Below are the rivers that continue to be above flood stage:

- Trinity River (Goodrich): Major Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Liberty): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major
Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Riverside): Moderate Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Romayor): Action Flood Stage, rising to Minor
Flood Stage
- Trinity River (Moss Bluff): Minor Flood Stage
- Menard Creek (Rye): Moderate Flood Stage, rising to Major Flood
Stage
- Bedias Creek (Madisonville): Minor Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (New Caney): Action Flood Stage, rising to Moderate
Flood Stage
- San Jacinto (Cleveland): Action Flood Stage, rising to Minor
Flood Stage

24

Previous Discussion Issued at 335 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024:

5-10 inches with isolated totals of 10-12+ inches of rainfall have fallen
over the past 24 hours causing minor to major river flooding along the
Trinity River and its tributaries. Lake Livingston is showing inflows
of near 160,000 cfs and is currently releasing 98,400 cfs. Expected
impacts include extensive inundation of agricultural land, widespread
street flooding, and structure flooding along the lowest areas of the
Trinity River. Many impacts are already occurring upstream of Lake
Livingston and along tributaries. Additional impacts are expected to
worsen over the next 6-12 hours downstream of the lake and will persist
for several days.

Additional minor to moderate river flooding is expected along the E.F.
San Jacinto and Navasota Rivers. Primary impacts include street flooding
and isolated structure flooding. Rises to action stage are expected
across the majority of the San Jacinto and Brazos River basins. Most
impacts will occur within the next 24-48 hours, with some impacts lingering
into the end of the week.

Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS AHPS website and/or the
new NWS NWPS webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/) as the river flood
threat continues.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 86 69 84 71 / 10 10 40 40
Houston (IAH) 86 71 84 73 / 10 10 40 30
Galveston (GLS) 80 72 80 74 / 20 10 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM CDT this morning for TXZ163-164-
178-179-200-214-300.

GM...Small Craft Should Exercise Caution until 10 AM CDT this morning
for GMZ370-375.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...24

[Cromagnum]

Rain chances down to 20-30% for rest of the week. Of course.

[DoctorMu]

The best chance of rain with UL disturbance will be Thursday. A mid level ridge builds by the end of the 10 day forecast.