May 2024

[tireman4]

May will bring hotter temperatures, but shall it bring rain, clouds, or anything else?

[Pas_Bon]

May will bring hotter temperatures, but shall it bring rain, clouds, or anything else?

Fingers crossed for no volcanoes.

[mcheer23]

We’re in the “slight risk” for excessive heat may 8th-10th

[Cpv17]

We’re in the “slight risk” for excessive heat may 8th-10th

Not only that but average to below normal rain chances for the first 10 days or so of May. I suspect with ridging overhead, the SST’s in the Gulf of Mexico are about to skyrocket.

[Cpv17]

Just last night they only had a 30% chance of rain for today lol

[MH5]

Severe watches going up out west and in the panhandle, new mesoscale discussion regarding central Texas potentially needing a watch in the next few hours. Flood watch now includes Harris Co. Things finally seem to be getting started, albeit much later than what most models hinted at for most of the day in our general neck of the woods. Not overly optimistic on any super high totals locally, but always have to watch out for training cells.

[Cpv17]

Hopefully this expands to the south. We could use a couple inches out my way.

[Stratton20]

Hopefully that axis of heavy rain shifts further south, i could use a good couple of inches, when is the raib supposed to get going?

[don]

imange1.png (340.44 KiB) Viewed 558 times

[Cpv17]

Hopefully that axis of heavy rain shifts further south, i could use a good couple of inches, when is the raib supposed to get going?

ABC13 just put out a graphic and it had almost all the rain north of I-10 through Friday

[Cromagnum]

Hopefully that axis of heavy rain shifts further south, i could use a good couple of inches, when is the raib supposed to get going?

ABC13 just put out a graphic and it had almost all the rain north of I-10 through Friday

Futurecast had it pounding the area during rush hour tomorrow. Should make a fun drive to IAH in the morning, the one time in 5 years I've needed to go up there.

[Pas_Bon]

“It doesn’t always rain in Houston, but when it does, it does so during the morning commute.”

[don]

Looks like another storm complex overnight again like the other day.

Screenshot 2024-05-01 at 19-16-34 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png (397.95 KiB) Viewed 430 times

Screenshot 2024-05-01 at 19-16-57 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png (428.56 KiB) Viewed 430 times

Screenshot 2024-05-01 at 19-19-42 Models HRRR - Pivotal Weather.png (435.19 KiB) Viewed 429 times

[Ptarmigan]

If the HRRR forecast model is any indication, it could get nasty.

[Ptarmigan]

If thunderstorms move faster, more likely for strong winds. Slower moving means heavy rain and possible for flooding.

https://forecast.weather.gov/product.ph ... glossary=1

Code: Select all

635
FXUS64 KHGX 020001
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
701 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Thursday Night)
Issued at 333 PM CDT Wed May 1 2024

We continue to anticipate a heavy rain event overnight and into
tomorrow, which will pose a risk of flash flooding while also
exacerbating ongoing river flooding. A Flood Watch, which now
including Harris County as well as other locations along and north
of the I-10 corridor within the original Watch, will be in effect
between 10 PM tonight and 7 PM tomorrow. Additionally, this line of
storms will pose a threat of severe weather, particularly strong
wind gusts, as it moves through the area.

Models still remain in good agreement in showing the progression of
a robust midlevel trough, which will move across the area overnight
and into tomorrow. Environmental conditions remain favorable for
heavy rain, with abundant moisture availability (PWs of around 2.0
in) that will be sustained by steady onshore flow. Soils remain well-
saturated from Sunday/Monday`s storms, which, combined with elevated
river and creek levels, will make flash flooding quicker to develop.
Furthermore, SB instability in the range of 1500 J/kg and effective
layer shear of 40+kt during the overnight/early tomorrow period will
both support heavy rain and the potential for strong to severe wind
gusts. The approach of the aforementioned trough is expected to
induce the development of an MCS to our northwest, with the complex
of storms moving from NW to SE over the course of the overnight and
morning hours. A few isolated storms ahead of the line are possible,
and these storms may result in a few brief heavy downpours. However,
the main heavy rainfall window looks to remain concentrated around
the 2 AM to 12 PM timeframe.

In terms of rainfall totals, there remains quite a bit of
uncertainty across the most recent iterations of available HiRes
models as well as the HREF. Generally, the axis of heaviest rainfall
has shifted to the south since yesterday, with most locations along
and north of the I-10 corridor poised to receive average rainfall
amounts between 2-5". Some localized totals may reach 6-9", although
the exact location and extent of any higher amounts will be
dependent on exactly how the development of the line unfolds. A
faster-moving line, as depicted in some of the more recent HRRR
runs, would favor less instances of localized higher amounts but
would also result in an increased risk of strong/severe wind gusts
with the development of a stronger cold pool behind the line. With
slower-moving solutions, we`d expect to see greater instances of the
locally higher amounts. A few solutions also show some redevelopment
of scattered storms tomorrow afternoon, which could produce a few
more locally heavy downpours.

While uncertainty remains in the forecast, we nonetheless still
anticipate a widespread flooding threat with the threat of severe
weather also still present. In addition to the threat of street
flooding, these additional rains will also contribute to the ongoing
river flooding across the area, particularly across portions of the
San Jacinto and Trinity basins. This period will remain a time to be
weather aware and weather prepared...with flooding and strong winds
potentially impacting the morning commute across the area, caution
should be exercised while traveling. Having multiple ways to receive
warnings remains very important!

Cady

&&

[Cpv17]

That’s some sort of storm over Trinity. Same areas that got pounded a couple days ago are getting it again. Here we are down south bone dry.

[Cpv17]

Man I feel for anyone down south of the Trinity River. That’s gonna be some catastrophic flooding downstream.

[captainbarbossa19]

If you are frustrated about no rain so far, I think you will get it soon enough.

[Cromagnum]

If you are frustrated about no rain so far, I think you will get it soon enough.

Been hearing that song for two months.