June 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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mcheer23
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What shall the first month Summer bring? Hot? Rain? Tropical Mischief?
Pas_Bon
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My money is on the first tropical landfall for SE TX in mid-June. Yes, I said "first."
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Ptarmigan
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I would not be surprised to see a tropical landfall.
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DoctorMu
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June is usually more active than July. I concur.
Cromagnum
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Gonna start it off with popcorn thunderstorms. Betting on some tropical trouble in 2nd half of the month.
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tireman4
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Our Summer League meet I'm Summerwood/Humble has been moved up 30 minutes to try and get it all in before the thunderstorms. HGX thinks 1 pm. I am not sure we get it all in,, two big teams for a dual meet
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tireman4
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tireman4 wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 9:18 pm Our Summer League meet in Summerwood/Humble has been moved up 30 minutes to try and get it all in before the thunderstorms. HGX thinks 1 pm. I am not sure we get it all in,, two big teams for a dual meet
Pas_Bon
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Happy Hurricane Season. Ugh
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Fri May 31, 2024 9:16 pm Gonna start it off with popcorn thunderstorms. Betting on some tropical trouble in 2nd half of the month.
Yeah - there could be a potent sea brezze today. It may even reach College Station.


Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
620 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday Night)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

The first day of June will be a bit quieter than the last day of
May, but that doesn`t mean we are out of the woods for storm
potential today. A combination of daytime heating, abundant
moisture, and a passing weak shortwave aloft will lead to pop-up
showers and storms through the day today. Activity will first
start along the coast between the mid and late morning, expanding
northwards through the afternoon, then dissipating this evening.
While most storms will be sub-severe today, there is a chance for
an isolated severe thunderstorm or two capable of producing strong
wind gusts and potentially some hail
. SPC has placed all of SE
Texas in a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) for Severe Storms today,
and WPC has also placed most of SE Texas in a Marginal (level 1 of
4) for Excessive Rainfall. The storms that pop up will be capable
of bringing a quick downpour of 1-3", which normally wouldn`t be
an issue but soils are very well saturated after yesterday`s heavy
rainfall. A lull in the activity is expected overnight tonight,
but late morning and afternoon thunderstorms will again bloom over
SE Texas. Another upper level shortwave will be moving in from
the west, so there is potential for a line of storms to move into
SE Texas sometime tomorrow afternoon/evening
- however, exactly
how strong, when, and where is largely uncertain right now.

Temperatures over the weekend will be rather seasonal during the
daytime hours with high temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s.
The onshore flow and high dew points will lead to overnight low
temperatures to be unseasonably warm, in the mid to upper 70s
inland and low 80s along the coast.

Fowler

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday through Friday)
Issued at 317 AM CDT Sat Jun 1 2024

A drier weather pattern seems to be setting up across Southeast
Texas for much of the upcoming work week. Early next week,
although the environment seems to be healthy enough for some
shower and thunderstorms development, in particular with onshore
flow continuing to supply warm moist air from the Gulf, good
instability remains in place, and weak disturbance and vort maxes
moving over the region, models seem to favor the cap limiting our
rain chances for much of Southeast Texas. The best opportunity
for showers and storms are currently located over the Brazos
Valley and Piney Woods region for Monday.

The cap is then expected to strengthen Tuesday. Dry conditions
will continue into Wednesday as mid level ridge builds a little
more and with 500 mb heights slightly increasing,
we will likely
see temperatures go from the low 90s on Monday and Tuesday to the
low to mid 90s on Wednesday. Some isolated spots may even see lows
in the mid to upper 90s both Wednesday and Thursday. With the
onshore flow continuing low level moisture transport, dewpoints
will remain generally in the mid to upper 70s. This combined with
rising temperatures, we could see heat indices between 103 to 110
deg F and heat advisories may be required. Please remember to
practice heat safety and make the appropriate preparations if you
plan to work or spend time outdoors. Drink plenty of fluids, stay
in an air-conditioned room, stay out of the sun, and check up on
relatives and neighbors. Never leave children and pets in
unattended vehicles. For those walking or taking your pets
outdoors, remember, if it is too hot for your palm, then it is too
hot for their paws and bring water for them as well.

By the end of the work week, there is still some model
inconsistency but there might be a weak cold front to our north or
northeast and it could slid close to or possibly over Southeast
Texas
. If the frontal boundary stays out of our location, we may
continue be remain on the dry side of things as high pressure
dominates the weather pattern along with continued heat impacts.
Some rain chances could occur if the boundary makes it into
Southeast Texas and would also help bring down the highs closer
into the low 90s. Heat indices would also decrease slightly,
roughly in the low 100s. Regardless, we are transitioning into a
summer pattern and conditions will naturally be warming up.
Sadness.


Cotto (24)

&&
Cromagnum
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Here we go again.

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tireman4
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Heads Up
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DoctorMu
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Pas_Bon wrote: Sat Jun 01, 2024 8:26 am Happy Hurricane Season. Ugh
From Severe Season now overlapping into Hurricane Season, with an unknown length intermission by Death Ridge Season.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Sat Jun 01, 2024 12:21 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tireman4
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We are now in a lightning delay until 12 38. We almost got the first 60 events which makes a finished meet.
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don
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DoctorMu
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Houston's getting quite a shower. Will be lucky to reach Navasota.
Cpv17
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Ended up getting 1.80” last week of some much needed rain! One more semi-active day today before a boring weather pattern sets back in for much of the week.
Stratton20
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Cpv17 good! We need a quiet stretch, well except for you lol, texas has had enough for a while
Cpv17
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Stratton20 wrote: Sun Jun 02, 2024 2:10 pm Cpv17 good! We need a quiet stretch, well except for you lol, texas has had enough for a while
It needs to rain the RGV, Hill Country, and west Texas.
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don
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I picked up over 8 inches for the month of May! And some areas of Harris county have received 10-14 inches of rain for May! Global models are already showing a decent tropical wave in the Gulf around the 10th, something to watch.
Stratton20
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Don yeah, even though it is june, with gulf waters already where they are supposed to be in august, Its definitely worth watching, at the very least it should bring back rain chances
It appears models are trying to bring a deep plume of moisture/ energy up from the NW caribbean/ Yucatan peninsula into the central gulf, nothing more than energy right now, but bares watching for sure
Last edited by Stratton20 on Sun Jun 02, 2024 2:47 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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