July 2024
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cov17 yeah i saw that, it looks like the ridge that dries us out will be moving quickly and eventually rebuilding over the western us, so maybe 2-3 days of drier weather but yeah another weakness develops in the ridge after that, what an incredible summer its been so far ( outside of beryl) only 74 degrees here from the rain, just amazing!
Shades of the 2007 summer.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Thu Jul 25, 2024 3:43 pm Cov17 yeah i saw that, it looks like the ridge that dries us out will be moving quickly and eventually rebuilding over the western us, so maybe 2-3 days of drier weather but yeah another weakness develops in the ridge after that, what an incredible summer its been so far ( outside of beryl) only 74 degrees here from the rain, just amazing!
5.57” so far for me in Beaumont in two days. We may top 10” if this event stretches till Saturday!
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
I picked up 2 inches today, and im at over 5 inches total so far this week.I'm so happy for the Hill Country, they badly needed the rain.
Just shy of 4" here in Cypress for the week. Been sick since Beryl, and haven't had a chance to mow. Going to need a brush hog for the back yard......
The rain can stop anytime now. My roof is still leaking through the patch job and I'm probably a couple of weeks out minimum on a roof replacement.
I probably got the least amount of rain out of anyone and yet I’m not even upset about it lol
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MontgomeryCoWx
- Posts: 2407
- Joined: Wed Dec 14, 2011 4:31 pm
- Location: Weimar, TX
- Contact:
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Could we possibly have another decently strong summer front? GFS maybe sniffing one out in the first week of august, we shall see!
0.63 in for today. 9.58 in for the month IMFY. Unbelievable.
Less than 1 month now until CFB.
Less than 1 month now until CFB.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
378
FXUS64 KHGX 261142
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
An upper level trough remains in place over the Southern Plains,
with ridging present on either side over the NE Gulf of Mexico and
Baja California. A coastal trough/low looming of the Texas
coastline should supply sufficient forcing and moisture to bring
numerous showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Deep
saturation, PWs of 2.0-2.5 inches, and modest instability should
give these storms high precipitation efficiency, capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall. Bottom line, expect rounds of
storms to continue across SE Texas into this weekend, with below
normal temperatures.
A heavy band of thunderstorms has already developed across
portions of Galveston, Harris and Chambers counties early this
morning. With additional rainfall expected, WPC has areas near the
coast under a Moderate (level 3/4) Risk for early this morning.
The threat of heavy rainfall decreases later today, though much of
SE Texas will remain under a Slight Risk at least, as soils
remain saturated from recent rainfall. Today`s Flood Watch has
been expanded to include areas mostly along/south of US-59, and
should remain in effect until 6 PM tonight. For Saturday, all of
SE Texas will only be under a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of
Excessive rainfall. Throughout this period, 2-4 inches of
additional rainfall is expected, though isolated higher amounts
will still be possible, especially near the coast. As we`ve seen
on previous days, theses totals could fall over the course of a
few hours, resulting in flash flooding. Clogged storm drains may
further exasperate flooding, so try to keep them clear of any
lingering debris from Hurricane Beryl.
100-150m2s2 of 1km SRH with 1km/3km EHI values 1-2 in proximity
to the coast suggest the potential for a brief tornado to spinup
trough early dawn. Conditions looks most favorable around
Galveston Bay, where possible waterspouts have already appeared on
radar.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
One more day with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
can be expected on Sunday, before drier conditions return next week.
Mid to upper-level trough extending from the Southern Plains to
the central CONUS will finally weaken/move northeastward during
the weekend. While it does it, plenty of moisture will still
remain over the region with PWATs at or above 2.0 inches. Deep
moisture combined with sfc convergence due to a sfc trough and
vort maxes aloft, will continue to provide enough lifting to
produce showers and storms throughout the day on Sunday. It won`t
be as widespread as previous days, but given saturated soils, a
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect.
Beyond Sunday, rain and storm chances begin to taper off. This is in
response to a building ridge of high pressure. With the high
pressure centered to our east, warm and humid southeasterly surface
winds will persist through the week. This pattern will keep daily
rain and storm chances, especially in the afternoon with diurnal
heating and sea breeze interaction.
Below average temperatures are expected on Sunday, given abundant
cloud cover and rain chances. However, as the sfc high shifts
westward, expect a gradual warming trend next week. Highs will
generally be into the low to mid 90s. Lows in the upper 70s.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning should decrease in
coverage later this afternoon, with CIGS gradually improving to
MVFR/VFR levels. There will be a lull in rainfall this evening,
then shower/storm activity will increase again during the early
morning hours of Saturday. CIGs will also drop to MVFR/IFR levels
overnight into early Saturday morning.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Another day with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is
expected today. Winds will generally remain light to moderate out of
the southeast. However, strong winds, lightning and waterspouts will
be possible with any strong storms. A lull in precipitation will be
possible later this afternoon and evening, before another round of
showers and storms moves through the region. Stay weather aware and
continue to monitor current weather conditions and forecasts. The
same weather pattern is again expected through Sunday; though
rain/storm coverage should be less. As we head into the upcoming
week, rain and storm chances gradually taper off as a surface high
pressure builds to our east. Light to occasionally onshore winds
and low seas will persist through the next 7 days.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 72 83 72 / 50 50 60 20
Houston (IAH) 82 73 83 75 / 70 70 80 40
Galveston (GLS) 83 77 86 79 / 80 70 90 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ164-178-179-200-
213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 261142
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
An upper level trough remains in place over the Southern Plains,
with ridging present on either side over the NE Gulf of Mexico and
Baja California. A coastal trough/low looming of the Texas
coastline should supply sufficient forcing and moisture to bring
numerous showers and thunderstorms into the weekend. Deep
saturation, PWs of 2.0-2.5 inches, and modest instability should
give these storms high precipitation efficiency, capable of
producing locally heavy rainfall. Bottom line, expect rounds of
storms to continue across SE Texas into this weekend, with below
normal temperatures.
A heavy band of thunderstorms has already developed across
portions of Galveston, Harris and Chambers counties early this
morning. With additional rainfall expected, WPC has areas near the
coast under a Moderate (level 3/4) Risk for early this morning.
The threat of heavy rainfall decreases later today, though much of
SE Texas will remain under a Slight Risk at least, as soils
remain saturated from recent rainfall. Today`s Flood Watch has
been expanded to include areas mostly along/south of US-59, and
should remain in effect until 6 PM tonight. For Saturday, all of
SE Texas will only be under a Marginal (level 1/4) Risk of
Excessive rainfall. Throughout this period, 2-4 inches of
additional rainfall is expected, though isolated higher amounts
will still be possible, especially near the coast. As we`ve seen
on previous days, theses totals could fall over the course of a
few hours, resulting in flash flooding. Clogged storm drains may
further exasperate flooding, so try to keep them clear of any
lingering debris from Hurricane Beryl.
100-150m2s2 of 1km SRH with 1km/3km EHI values 1-2 in proximity
to the coast suggest the potential for a brief tornado to spinup
trough early dawn. Conditions looks most favorable around
Galveston Bay, where possible waterspouts have already appeared on
radar.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
One more day with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms
can be expected on Sunday, before drier conditions return next week.
Mid to upper-level trough extending from the Southern Plains to
the central CONUS will finally weaken/move northeastward during
the weekend. While it does it, plenty of moisture will still
remain over the region with PWATs at or above 2.0 inches. Deep
moisture combined with sfc convergence due to a sfc trough and
vort maxes aloft, will continue to provide enough lifting to
produce showers and storms throughout the day on Sunday. It won`t
be as widespread as previous days, but given saturated soils, a
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall remains in effect.
Beyond Sunday, rain and storm chances begin to taper off. This is in
response to a building ridge of high pressure. With the high
pressure centered to our east, warm and humid southeasterly surface
winds will persist through the week. This pattern will keep daily
rain and storm chances, especially in the afternoon with diurnal
heating and sea breeze interaction.
Below average temperatures are expected on Sunday, given abundant
cloud cover and rain chances. However, as the sfc high shifts
westward, expect a gradual warming trend next week. Highs will
generally be into the low to mid 90s. Lows in the upper 70s.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 633 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Numerous showers and thunderstorms this morning should decrease in
coverage later this afternoon, with CIGS gradually improving to
MVFR/VFR levels. There will be a lull in rainfall this evening,
then shower/storm activity will increase again during the early
morning hours of Saturday. CIGs will also drop to MVFR/IFR levels
overnight into early Saturday morning.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 434 AM CDT Fri Jul 26 2024
Another day with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms is
expected today. Winds will generally remain light to moderate out of
the southeast. However, strong winds, lightning and waterspouts will
be possible with any strong storms. A lull in precipitation will be
possible later this afternoon and evening, before another round of
showers and storms moves through the region. Stay weather aware and
continue to monitor current weather conditions and forecasts. The
same weather pattern is again expected through Sunday; though
rain/storm coverage should be less. As we head into the upcoming
week, rain and storm chances gradually taper off as a surface high
pressure builds to our east. Light to occasionally onshore winds
and low seas will persist through the next 7 days.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 83 72 83 72 / 50 50 60 20
Houston (IAH) 82 73 83 75 / 70 70 80 40
Galveston (GLS) 83 77 86 79 / 80 70 90 50
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Flood Watch until 6 PM CDT this evening for TXZ164-178-179-200-
213-214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
12z HRRR has another round of storms moving through early-mid morning saturday and then another round moving through on sunday, additional 4-6 inches, with isolated 8-10 in a few spots
Rain finally let up enough that my roofers could patch up things again. What a mess.
Leaks aside, holy crap the mosquitoes outside. They are going to have nuke the entire area to even put a dent.
Leaks aside, holy crap the mosquitoes outside. They are going to have nuke the entire area to even put a dent.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Noaa has above normal precipitation for SE texas and the state in both the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, whatever drying period happens after sunday will be very short lived
Almost 4" received today alone. Good grief.
6.10” so far since Tuesday! If we keep getting these morning/afternoon daily rounds, many of us will top out near foot of rain after this is all said and done. Thankfully majority is manageable and stops long enough for draining before the next round.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Had over 4” today. Most of that came in a hour or so earlier this morning. The streets were 2ft deep in the front of our neighborhood. Some intense rainfall rates for sure.
I really hope not...
