July 2024

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Lol, our Summers. Feast or Famine.


Cromag… I was laughing at your post on TexAgs Houston board and your move. I agree 100%. Good luck with your move.

[Pas_Bon]

Lol, our Summers. Feast or Famine.


Cromag… I was laughing at your post on TexAgs Houston board and your move. I agree 100%. Good luck with your move.

[Stratton20]

Euro showing a big surge of much cooler air invading the US at the end of its run, bring it on! That death ridge has nothing on us this summer!

[tireman4]

652
FXUS64 KHGX 291142
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
642 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Ridging across the Southern Plains/Gulf amplifies early this week,
with 500mb heights progged to reach up to 593-595 dam. This will
result in stronger capping and subsidence aloft, keeping rain
chances fairly low. Light streamer showers may develop over the Gulf
waters during the overnight/early morning hours, with isolated
storms possible further inland during the afternoon hours.
NAEFS/GEFS/ECMWF indicate that mean 500mb geopotential heights will
climb to the 90th-99th percentile today & Tuesday, indicative of
rising temperatures. This is further supported by rising 850mb
temperatures of 17-20C, southwesterly flow in the lower levels and
sparse cloud cover during the afternoon. The combination of these
factors should bring temperatures back to near-normal levels, with
highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s. Dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s
during the afternoon will result in heat indices ranging from 103-
109 degrees. This won`t be sufficient to trigger a Heat Advisory for
today (even considering other parameters like WBGT and Heat Risk),
though we cannot completely rule out the possibility later in the
week as temperature gradually rise.

Saharan Dust is also progged to move into the area early Tuesday
morning. While these Saharan airmasses are typically drier,
gradually airmass modification over the Atlantic/Gulf has likely
incorporated additional moisture, and should thus minimize any
impacts on near surface temperature/humidity. However, the presence
of dust aloft will likely result in hazy-white skies across the
region.

03

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

A more typical summer pattern is expected through the long term with
relatively dry and warmer conditions. Upper-level ridge continues to
amplify and move eastward across SE TX by Wednesday. Strong
subsidence and decreasing PWs will lead to a dry but warm day. With
the ridge axis moving overhead, temperatures will run a bit higher
(hotter). In fact, 850 mb temperatures show values into the 20 to 22
degC, suggesting sfc highs into the low to mid 90s with heat index
from 105 to 108 degF. A similar day can be expected on Thursday.
Ridging aloft slightly retreats westward into the southern Rockies
by Friday. Weaker heights over the region, warm and humid
southeasterly surface flow will bring low rain/storm chances in the
afternoon. The best precipitation chances return late Saturday
into early the upcoming week. Upper trough over the Great Lakes
region will push a weak boundary and subtle vort maxes aloft
during this time-frame. Global model also suggest a slight
increase in tropical moisture into the region. With that being
said, kept 15 to 20 percent chance of rain/storm towards the end
of the long term period.

A plume of Saharan dust is progged to reach the region early this
week, resulting in hazy skies. This layer will prevail over TX, at
least through the end of the work-week.

Overall, this week will feature drier and warmer conditions with
hazy skies due to the influence of the Saharan dust. Warm
temperatures combined with humid southeasterly flow will lead to
heat index values close to advisory levels. We`ll continue to
monitor for possible heat headlines.

JM

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 631 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

MVFR to IFR CIGS/VIS in areas north of I-10 should clear over the
next few hours. VFR conditions and and southerly winds prevail
during the day, with isolated showers possible inland during the
afternoon. MVFR CIGS and patchy fog will develop Tuesday morning
in areas north of the I-10 corridor. CIGs/Fog should clear after
sunrise, though Saharan dust will bring hazy conditions on
Tuesday.

03

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 358 AM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Isolated morning showers are expected today, with minimal impacts
across the coastal waters. High pressure builds in, resulting in
a week of benign weather conditions. Persistent onshore winds
will continue to surge more moisture; therefore, isolated daily
showers cannot be ruled. However, precipitation chances will
slowly increase towards the weekend as tropical moisture
increases. Overall, a benign week is anticipated with light to
moderate south to southeast winds and low seas (2-3 ft).

JM

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 76 94 77 / 10 0 10 0
Houston (IAH) 93 77 94 77 / 20 10 20 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 81 / 20 20 20 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM

[Cromagnum]

Lol, our Summers. Feast or Famine.


Cromag… I was laughing at your post on TexAgs Houston board and your move. I agree 100%. Good luck with your move.

Which one, the track of the next storm? Absolutely. The gulf needs to calm down for a couple months so I can tidy up and get on out of here.

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Lol, our Summers. Feast or Famine.


Cromag… I was laughing at your post on TexAgs Houston board and your move. I agree 100%. Good luck with your move.

Which one, the track of the next storm? Absolutely. The gulf needs to calm down for a couple months so I can tidy up and get on out of here.

The 57% of Houstonians thread…

[Cromagnum]

Lol, our Summers. Feast or Famine.


Cromag… I was laughing at your post on TexAgs Houston board and your move. I agree 100%. Good luck with your move.

Which one, the track of the next storm? Absolutely. The gulf needs to calm down for a couple months so I can tidy up and get on out of here.

The 57% of Houstonians thread…

Haha. That's true too. Been in Houston (or College Station) my entire life. Time to change things up.

[Stratton20]

NOAA has us going back into a wetter pattern in the 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks, with a hint of a stronger summer cold front entering the US in the 8-14 day outlook

[tireman4]

911
FXUS64 KHGX 291930
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
230 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, HYDROLOGY...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

A large mid/upper subtropical ridge has taken charge of the
weather pattern over the Lone Star State. There does appear to be
some weak vorticity over southeast Texas. Models are not
initializing this weak ML disturbance very well. But the system
appears to be applying enough lift to allow some of our cumulus
clouds to grow into isolated showers and thunderstorms. Therefore,
don`t be terribly surprised if you find yourself under a downpour
this afternoon. That being said, most areas across the CWA are
remaining dry, hot, and very humid. Temperatures are warming into
the low/mid 90s. Heat index values will easily surpass 104-105.
Some locations are getting precariously close to Heat Advisory
threshold (108 degrees) while a few isolated spots getting close
to 110. The advisory worthy heat index values are relatively
isolated. Experimental Wet Bulb Globe Temp based HeatRisk guidance
suggests that we are near the peak of the heat for today. So we
have held off on Heat Advisories. Tonight will be humid, with lows
mostly in the 75 to 80 degree range.

Ridging builds on Tuesday, suggesting a hotter day than today.
However, the presence of an approaching Saharan dust plume in the
mid- levels may counteract the ridge`s influence on our
temperatures due to the resulting haze. Therefore, we are going
with temperatures pretty similar to today. Cannot rule out
isolated diurnal shower/thunderstorm activity, especially along
the sea/bay breeze boundary. That being said, the increasingly
suppressive ridge coupled with the introduction of dry, dusty air
in the mid- levels will keep PoPs low tomorrow.

Self

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Wednesday looks to be the day with the highest concentration of
Saharan dust as a plume drifts over Southeast TX for much of the
work week. This dust plume will act to degrade air quality and also
degrade the environment from being suitable for rain to develop.
When you factor in the upper level high directly overhead, you can
see why our rain chances for Wednesday and Thursday are slim to none
for inland locations. 500mb heights will be around 594-596 dam
throughout the week (and even approaching 598 dam at times up north)
which is very indicative of increased subsidence aloft. At the
surface, we`ll still have onshore flow persisting allowing for
moisture to remain in place when the airmass isn`t being modified by
Saharan dust. PW values on Wednesday will see a slight decrease to
around 1.4-1.7", which doesn`t sound that low but the 25th
percentile this time of the year is around 1.6"...so that`s
climatologically dry. It`ll be enough to keep heat index values
elevated throughout the week, but more on that in a little bit.

An inverted upper level trough sneaks underneath the ridge on late
Thursday and brings back a surge of tropical moisture. That takes us
into the end of the work week and the weekend where we`ll see rain
chances make a return yet again. By Friday, the upper level high and
subsequent main ridge axis will have shifted northwestward as an
upper level trough swings through the Great Lakes region towards the
northeastern CONUS. Some trailing PVA along the tail-end of that
trough look to provide us with just enough lift for the moisture to
generate showers/storms Friday and through the weekend. This looks
to be mainly a daily afternoon/evening event along the sea breeze
and other lingering boundaries.

We`re moving into the start of August next week, which I`m sure most
of you know is climatologically our hottest month of the year.
Expect temperatures mainly in the low to mid 90s throughout the long
term period with some slight upward trends going into the end of the
week where portions of the Brazos Valley may get into the upper 90s.
On the plus side, this is comparatively "cooler" to the start of
August 2023...which I`m sure I don`t have to remind y`all how hot it
was back then. While our air temperatures won`t be in the triple
digits this week, our heat index values will thanks to persistent
onshore flow. Heat index values will be fairly close to Heat
Advisory territory ( 108F) at times. Overnight temperatures will
remain rather mild with lows mainly in the mid to upper 70s.

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Isolated SHRA/TSRA expected this afternoon. Not enough confidence
in TS location to warrant mention in the TAF. Therefore, VCSH
suffices for now for most terminals. But amendments may be
necessary depending on radar trends. Any SHRA/TSRA should
diminish by evening. MVFR cigs expected for northern terminals
late tonight and tomorrow morning. Occasional MVFR could make it
as far down as IAH. For now, we only mention MVFR in the TAF`s
north of IAH.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

A relatively benign period of marine conditions will prevail
throughout the week with light to occasionally moderate onshore flow
and low seas persisting. There will be a plume of Saharan dust
moving in on Tuesday and lingering into Thursday and may reduce
visibilities by a few statute miles at times. Rain chances will be
slim throughout the work week, but do begin to increase going into
weekend as moisture goes on the rise.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Minor to moderate river flooding persists following the numerous
rounds of heavy rainfall from last week. As of ~2pm Monday
afternoon, there are seven River Flood Warnings in effect:

Moderate Flood Stage//
----------------------
- East Fork San Jacinto River at New Caney
- San Bernard River at Sweeny
- Trinity River at Liberty
- Tres Palacios River at Midfield

Minor Flood Stage//
-------------------
- Cypress Creek near Sharp Road
- San Bernard River at Boling
- Trinity River at Moss Bluff

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
NEVER travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 77 94 77 95 / 0 10 0 0
Houston (IAH) 78 93 77 94 / 10 20 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 81 88 81 88 / 0 10 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Self
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Self
MARINE...Batiste

[jasons2k]

That didn’t take long. Back up to 98 with a heat index of 115…

[Ptarmigan]

Great. It is hot again. Thankfully nothing like last summer or 2011.

[Cpv17]

Not to take anything away from the weather, but I’m at an absolute loss for words and sick to my stomach about that Astros trade tonight. Unreal. I thought the Hopkins/Texans trade was bad.. this tops it.

[jasons2k]

Not to take anything away from the weather, but I’m at an absolute loss for words and sick to my stomach about that Astros trade tonight. Unreal. I thought the Hopkins/Texans trade was bad.. this tops it.

Yep and the loss was icing on the cake. We have tickets for Wednesday night. My enthusiasm for the game has gone way

Weatherwise, enjoy the quiet week. It’s about to get busy again.

[Stratton20]

Even as a rangers fan who loves to give his astros friends a hard time ( no room to talk this year for me though) I have to say i am completely dumbfounded by browns decision to trade Joey for a bag of expired potato chips, definitely one of the worst trades ive seen in a while, that could really come back to hurt houston down the road potentially

[DoctorMu]

95°F; 106°F HI

Summer, definitely, but it's been far worse - like last summer.

More of the same through Sunday with some African dust later this week.

[DoctorMu]

Even as a rangers fan who loves to give his astros friends a hard time ( no room to talk this year for me though) I have to say i am completely dumbfounded by browns decision to trade Joey for a bag of expired potato chips, definitely one of the worst trades ive seen in a while, that could really come back to hurt houston down the road potentially

Cashing in the chips prematurely.

[DoctorMu]

Great. It is hot again. Thankfully nothing like last summer or 2011.

Both were the worst.

Our grass and trees are actually green going into August, thanks to 10.22 inches of rain in July.

[tireman4]

878
FXUS64 KHGX 301113
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Broadly speaking, it`s hard to get more straightforward in a
forecast than when you are sitting directly beneath a mid-level
ridge around 596 dm - it`s gonna be hot. Of course, this is
Southeast Texas in the summer, so that`s not a *real* big surprise.
And, of course, since this is Southeast Texas, there are some other
nuances that we`ll want to talk about in here - primarily when it
comes to heat impacts and yes, we`ll even have to chat briefly about
some slight rain chances today.

As with any time we get to seeing high temperatures above average in
the area deep into the summer, we need to start evaluating the need
for heat advisories. And...yeesh...we are gonna be close to the 108
heat index threshold both today and tomorrow. Indeed, both days, I
would expect isolated hot spots to briefly reach or exceed a 108
heat index, similar to what we saw yesterday. However, I`m unsure
that we`re going to breach that threshold for notable stretches nor
widespread enough to require an advisory. I expect this will largely
come down to how well dewpoints mix out this afternoon and tomorrow
afternoon. I chose to be a little conservative here - taking
afternoon dewpoints a little below the NBM numbers, but mix slightly
less effectively than we saw yesterday afternoon. We may very well
see dewpoints mix closer to persistence values, which would limit
how high the heat index can get, given forecast highs only a little
on the warm side of average.

On the flip side, taking a broader view at the heat situation, and
there may be a bit more cause for concern than a basic heat index
would indicate. The max Wet Bulb Globe Temperature risk across
Southeast Texas is high both today and tomorrow, with even isolated
extreme spots. These values largely occur in the mid-day to mid-
afternoon window. This is when any early morning stratus clouds that
may develop scatter out, allowing for peak solar insolation, and
also winds are still relatively light - closer to 5 mph, before
increasing more towards 10 mph late in the afternoon. Since these
higher-end WBGT values are only looking to emerge in this window
between limiting factors, it`s ultimately not enough to nudge me
over the edge for an advisory. But if there is any indication that
my temps are too low, or surface moisture isn`t mixing out enough,
an advisory may become necessary.

Another potential limiting factor may be a slight chance of a shower
or even a thunderstorm this afternoon. Yes, even with a solidly
summertime ridge right over us, I do have to talk about a non-zero
potential for rain. Straight up front, though, I want to emphasize
that any convective development will be very isolated at the very
most. The large majority of the area will be dry as the ridge keeps
things under wraps. The only reason I`m giving this more than a
passing reference is that the same hot, humid conditions that could
push heat index beyond advisory thresholds, could also provide
parcels just enough lift to get a shower/storm or two going. Thus,
the locations most threatened to see HI go above 108, may be the
places that get that one shower that`s just enough to chop off the
high end heat.

Luchs

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Thursday begins with the upper level ridge still dominating across
the Southern CONUS. While the center of the ridge itself is progged
to drift/expand northwesterly into the Desert Southwest/Great Basin,
heights within the midlevel ridge appear to strengthen to 596-600
dam, resulting in even greater subsidence. NAEFS/GEFS/ECMWF all
suggest that 500mb heights will be above the 99th percentile,
nearing the climatological max during this period. Meanwhile, an
inverted trough/low over the Gulf of Mexico is progged to funnel
additional moisture into the area, with PWs climbing to 1.4-1.9
inches. Isentropic lifting could be sufficient to bring isolated
streamer showers at times over the Gulf waters, though otherwise
rain chances will remain sparse. Highs will be in the upper 80s to
upper 90s with lows in the 70s to lower 80s. Afternoon dewpoints in
the mid/upper 70s will put heat indices around 103-112 degrees, with
WBGT values indicating high to extreme heat stress during the
afternoon. Heat Advisories could be warranted, though conditions
still appear to be borderline at this time.

On Friday, the mid/upper level ridge continues to shift
northwesterly as an upper level trough digs across the Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley. Falling heights and reduced subsidence across SE
Texas should usher in a gradual trend towards cooler/wetter weather
this weekend, especially as weak impulses from the upper trough
round the peripheral of the Great Basin ridge. In addition, global
models suggest that the aforementioned upper trough will create a
weak back-door frontal boundary spanning portions of the South-
Central to Southeast CONUS.

The NBM believes that Saturday will be the warmest day in the
forecast, likely due to the compressional heating from the
aforementioned boundary. This contrasts the broader synoptic trend
previously mentioned, where decreasing influence from the ridge
would suggest slightly cooler conditions. Summer fronts are often
weak, diffuse and have a tendency to stall before reaching our area.
With this in mind, I`m inclined to lean towards ridge influence as
my primary driver for high temperatures in the extended forecast.
Therefore, I`ve increased highs for Thursday (when the ridge is
stronger and closer to SE Texas) and decreased them on Saturday
(when the ridge is weaker and further removed from the area).

Either way, this weak boundary is progged to enter the vicinity
early Sunday, and appears to serve as a focus for shower/storm
development into next week. Upper level ridging strengthens over the
Central/Southern Plains next week, which should begin to pull PoPs
down slightly. Though, SE Texas will be on the peripheral of this
feature, which may allow for weak impulses to undercut the ridge
and produce isolated storms over the area.

03

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Though nothing terribly high impact, a smattering of stuff
happening around the area this morning. MVFR-IFR stratus from CXO
northward, which will scatter out mid to late morning, 15Z or so.
At the coast, we`re getting scattered streamer showers. This will
gradually transition to isolated showers and maybe a t`storm along
the seabreeze mid-day and afternoon. Keep VCSH mentions from
HOU/SGR coastward. Could see a shower as far inland as IAH, but
just not enough confidence it will be close enough to the terminal
to justify a VCSH. Light SW-S winds become more southerly 8-10 kts
late this morning, then dying down again tonight. For tonight, largely
a persistence forecast, including the return of stratus for the
northern terminals late.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 405 AM CDT Tue Jul 30 2024

Light to occasionally moderate winds and low seas of 2 to 4 feet can
be expected throughout the week. Light streamer showers will be
possible at times, otherwise rain chances will remain slim, only
increasing meaningfully later this weekend. Saharan dust may bring
slightly hazy conditions over the next few days.

03

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 230 PM CDT Mon Jul 29 2024

Minor to moderate river flooding persists following the numerous
rounds of heavy rainfall from last week. As of ~2pm Monday
afternoon, there are seven River Flood Warnings in effect:

Moderate Flood Stage//
----------------------
- East Fork San Jacinto River at New Caney
- San Bernard River at Sweeny
- Trinity River at Liberty
- Tres Palacios River at Midfield

Minor Flood Stage//
-------------------
- Cypress Creek near Sharp Road
- San Bernard River at Boling
- Trinity River at Moss Bluff

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
NEVER travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 77 95 74 / 10 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 78 95 76 / 20 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 82 89 81 / 20 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03

[Stratton20]

Good news, i see no big heat ridge looming on the horizon, even better news is, I see this coming, and im liking what im seeing on the euro, pretty decently strong front showing up on euro, GFS starting to see it too

[Cpv17]

Once again, not weather related, but I have some amazing news to share with y’all. My mom got diagnosed with CMML Leukemia last year in October and my dad got diagnosed with Burkitt Lymphoma in February. I had to take FMLA to take care of them. My mom had a stem cell transplant in March at MD Anderson. I was living with her for 3 months after her transplant at an apartment nearby MD. My dad had 6 rounds of Chemo for his Lymphoma stretching from March to June at MD as well. Between chemo treatments he got to go home, but had to come back twice a week for lab work and to meet with a PA. While I was with my mom, the rest of my family pitched in to help out with my dad at home between treatments. We found out about 6 weeks ago that my mom is in complete remission and we just got a call from my dad’s doctor today and he told my dad he’s in complete remission as well! Both of my parents are in complete remission. I’m on cloud nine right now. I couldn’t be more grateful for this outcome. Just amazing!! I’ve had to sacrifice so much for my mom and dad over the past few months and would do it all over again if I had to. It was so worth it.

Praise be to god. He answered our prayers.