July 2024

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
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don
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Cpv17 wrote:
don wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:

And there’s nothing to do in Bay City compared to being in The Heights.
I know...😒 I am enjoying how quiet it is though.And some of the area is more scenic than I expected (including Wharton).(Le Tulle Park as an example in Bay City) Gonna try to make the most of it, and hopefully no more TC's. I'm afraid Texas may see another one or two storms this season as the pattern that caused Beryl to hit us (Troughing over the plains) looks to continue on and off for maybe the rest of Summer.I think the several forecast that showed Texas being a target this season will verify...
If you like Mexican food La Casona is pretty good in Bay City. K2 Steakhouse is popular there, but I don’t really care much for it. If you like burgers 9’ers isn’t bad. Other than that the food selection is pretty mid.
Thank you for the recommendations. 🙂
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don wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2024 8:33 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
don wrote:

I know...😒 I am enjoying how quiet it is though.And some of the area is more scenic than I expected (including Wharton).(Le Tulle Park as an example in Bay City) Gonna try to make the most of it, and hopefully no more TC's. I'm afraid Texas may see another one or two storms this season as the pattern that caused Beryl to hit us (Troughing over the plains) looks to continue on and off for maybe the rest of Summer.I think the several forecast that showed Texas being a target this season will verify...
If you like Mexican food La Casona is pretty good in Bay City. K2 Steakhouse is popular there, but I don’t really care much for it. If you like burgers 9’ers isn’t bad. Other than that the food selection is pretty mid.
Thank you for the recommendations. 🙂
No problem! Also, not sure if you know about it, but Schulman’s is a pretty fun place to go to. That’s one of the only things to do there. I’d check it out at least once or twice if you plan on being there till September. You’re gonna need something to do lol
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DoctorMu
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Weather looks seasonable to slightly below average over the next week in CLL. There's a chance of diurnal rain on Saturday. The ridge remains weaki-ish and mostly south of us, especially from the middle of next week on.

SEC Media Days begin next week.


The Last Picture Show was filmed near Wichita Falls. Cybill Shepherd was something else. Summers can be a little rough up there.
Cpv17
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Typical summertime weather coming up over the next week. Low to mid 90’s with a 20-40% chance of rain each day.
Stratton20
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Looks like ridging should stay generally to our west and east over the next few weeks, models even have a weak back door front coming in and stalling out early next week, could help to keep some rain chances around
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DoctorMu
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DP of 64°F, temp in the low 90s, NE 12 mph.

Hell it's almost like Fall here!

SEC Media Days. I saw a prog for A&M as 9th in the SEC. Elko is going to shock the world. [Jimbo did less with more]
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DoctorMu
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Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:09 pm Looks like ridging should stay generally to our west and east over the next few weeks, models even have a weak back door front coming in and stalling out early next week, could help to keep some rain chances around
Every week with normal or milder summer weather is a week closer to football and the fall...rather than last year's Bataan Death Ridge March.
Pas_Bon
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 4:48 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:09 pm Looks like ridging should stay generally to our west and east over the next few weeks, models even have a weak back door front coming in and stalling out early next week, could help to keep some rain chances around
Every week with normal or milder summer weather is a week closer to football and the fall...rather than last year's Bataan Death Ridge March.
Last year’s Summer traumatized me almost as much as any Summer I’ve experienced with a landfalling hurricane
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Rip76
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DoctorMu wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 4:48 pm
Stratton20 wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:09 pm Looks like ridging should stay generally to our west and east over the next few weeks, models even have a weak back door front coming in and stalling out early next week, could help to keep some rain chances around
Every week with normal or milder summer weather is a week closer to football and the fall...rather than last year's Bataan Death Ridge March.

Yassss
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don wrote: Tue Jul 09, 2024 7:18 pm
Cpv17 wrote:
don wrote: Well looks like I'm officially moving to Wichita Falls around the 15th of September.Which means I'm now going to be here in Bay City until the peak of hurricane season.I was hoping to be up there earlier in the summer to avoid any TC's this year. 😒
And there’s nothing to do in Bay City compared to being in The Heights.
I know...😒 I am enjoying how quiet it is though.And some of the area is more scenic than I expected (including Wharton).(Le Tulle Park as an example in Bay City) Gonna try to make the most of it, and hopefully no more TC's. I'm afraid Texas may see another one or two storms this season as the pattern that caused Beryl to hit us (Troughing over the plains) looks to continue on and off for maybe the rest of Summer.I think the several forecast that showed Texas being a target this season will verify...
Man i hope you are wrong.
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tireman4
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253
FXUS64 KHGX 111141
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
641 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The current synoptic pattern, largely characterized by a mild but
steady onshore flow and daily rainfall chances driven mainly by
diurnal heating, will prevail through the remainder of the week. A
slight retrograde of the prevailing surface high offshore of the
Eastern Seaboard will promote a more uniform southeast wind, though
an overall weak pressure gradient will keep wind speeds light.
Meanwhile, a weak but nonetheless present stationary boundary will
remain situated just offshore, enhancing the potential for diurnally
driven showers and storms this afternoon.
Have maintained PoP values in the 40-60% range this afternoon for
areas along and south of the I-10 corridor, with expected storm
coverage looking to be similar to that of yesterday. High
temperatures, while remaining near seasonal normal values (low to
mid 90s), will nonetheless aggravate the risk for heat-related
illnesses due to the ongoing widespread power outages across Greater
Houston. With heat index values again rising into the triple digits,
a Heat Advisory has once again been issued in consideration of the
post-storm conditions. If planning any outdoor work today, remain
aware of the signs of heat related illnesses, stay hydrated, plan
work to avoid the hottest parts of the day, and use municipal
cooling centers if available.

Friday is shaping up to be a similar day to today, with rainfall
chances concentrated along the immediate coast and highs generally
in the lower 90s. Another Heat Advisory may be needed depending on
the ongoing power outage situation. For both tonight and tomorrow
night, expect lows to sit in the upper 70s to around 80.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

The overall long term period can be summarized by saying there will
be a chance for showers and storms nearly every day along with a
gradual warming trend...but y`all are stuck with me on the forecast
desk so we`re gonna take a deeper dive and discuss exactly why
that is. Let`s get started! We pick things up on Saturday, which
is when we have the highest rain chances for the forecast period.
Lingering deeper moisture (PW values greater than 2.0") continues
to sit over Southeast TX along with PVA from a nearby upper level
inverted trough. Combine that with daytime heating and sea
breeze/outflow boundary interactions and we should see some decent
coverage of afternoon showers and storms. Daytime temperatures on
Saturday start out in the low 90s...and it doesn`t get any
"cooler" than that going forward.

On Saturday night, upper level high pressure over the southeastern
CONUS expands westward and increases 500mb heights over Southeast TX
to around 594-596 dam. This does grant us a degree or two bump in
our high temperatures on Sunday and Monday, but it also
significantly drops rain chances due to the increased subsidence
aloft. We`ll go from rain chances peaking around 60% on Saturday
down to 30% on Sunday and less than 10% on Monday (sad stonks).
Things get a little bit interesting on Monday as the previously
mentioned upper level inverted trough drifts into the TX panhandle
and evolves into an embedded upper level low. The main implications
from this is decreasing our 500mb heights a bit which brings back
our typical summertime pattern of shower/storms developing along the
seabreeze in the afternoon and dissipating after sunset beginning
again on Tuesday. So, locations near and south of I-10 will have the
best chances of seeing rainfall through midweek. While we were
talking about rain chances, that warming trend kept on truckin`
along and now we`re looking at high temperatures in the mid to upper
90s by midweek. Some portions of the Brazos Valley may even flirt
with the 100F mark. It`s a verrry early look, but we`ll have to
monitor heat index values around midweek as they look to at least
approach the Heat Advisory threshold ( 108F).

Batiste

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 636 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

VFR conditions will generally prevail for the duration of the TAF
period, aside from a few patches of fog that could develop over
the next hour or two. Light southeast winds will develop by late
morning, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms that will
gradually push inland through the mid afternoon. Light and
variable winds redevelop overnight, with diminishing rainfall.
Another round of showers and storms looks to develop tomorrow.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

Overall a relatively benign period of marine conditions continues
with light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and 2-3 foot seas
persisting into early next week. Most days throughout the forecast
period will feature a chance for isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms (especially on Saturday), and mariners can expect
locally higher winds and seas near and within any thunderstorms.

Batiste

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
Issued at 309 AM CDT Thu Jul 11 2024

As of early Thursday morning, there are three Flood Warnings in
effect following the heavy rainfall and subsequent runoff from
Hurricane Beryl. The Tres Palacios River at Midfield crested in
major stage on Tuesday and is continuing to recede...it is forecast
to fall below flood stage by early Friday morning. The San Bernard
River at Boling crested in minor flood stage Tuesday and has fallen
back into action stage, but it is expected to have a secondary crest
into minor flood stage this afternoon. Lastly, Cypress Creek at
Sharp Road in western Harris County remains above flood stage and it
may take a day or so to recede.

There are a couple more sites that may need Flood Warnings at some
point over the next few days. The East Fork of the San Jacinto River
at New Caney is expected to crest into minor flood stage late this
evening and into the weekend. The Trinity River at Moss Bluff is
forecast to barely crest into minor flood stage over the weekend.

The excessive rainfall from Beryl along with subsequent unrelated
rounds of rainfall have left portions of Matagorda, Brazoria, Fort
Bend, Galveston, and Harris counties with above normal soil
moisture. With rain chances remaining elevated (~40+%) through
Saturday, it`s important to note that additional rainfall in these
areas will turn into runoff quickly.

Remember to heed any instructions from your local officials and to
NEVER travel through ANY flooded areas or roadways. TURN AROUND,
DON`T DROWN. Please monitor updated forecasts via the NWS NWPS
webpage (https://water.noaa.gov/).

Batiste

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 94 74 93 74 / 20 10 30 0
Houston (IAH) 92 76 91 76 / 40 30 60 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 88 81 / 60 50 50 20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 8 PM CDT this evening for TXZ163-164-176>179-
195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...Batiste
Stratton20
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The euro is showing an upper low becoming cut off from the jet stream next week and getting stuck in texas due to ridging, at the same time has a weak frontal boundary stalling across se texas , something to watch as that can spell a really wet pattern returning
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Radar at 2:12 pm
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Flood Advisory
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Stratton20
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Active day today, and that could be the general theme for the next few weeks, with possibly more widespread activity next week, all of the global guidance indicates a large weakness in the ridge will develop in the central plains next week, allowing for a weak backdoor front to move in and stall out across se texas , something to watch for, but hopefully this could help to keep a lid on temperatures from getting too crazy
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Ptarmigan
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Stratton20 wrote: Thu Jul 11, 2024 5:40 pm Active day today, and that could be the general theme for the next few weeks, with possibly more widespread activity next week, all of the global guidance indicates a large weakness in the ridge will develop in the central plains next week, allowing for a weak backdoor front to move in and stall out across se texas , something to watch for, but hopefully this could help to keep a lid on temperatures from getting too crazy
This July looks to be wet. A wetter July is more correlated to see a hurricane to make landfall.

Top 10 Wet July In Houston
1900 14.8
1942 14.1
1943 13.53
2010 12.92
1955 10.04
2007 9.94
1939 9.39
1961 8.71
1916 8.41
1959 8.17

1900 Great Galveston Hurricane
1942 Hurricane #2 and 1942 Matagorda Hurricane
1943 Surprise Hurricane made landfall
2010
1955 Gladys made landfall on Tampico
2007 Erin and Humberto
1939
1961 Carla
1916 Great Texas Hurricane of 1916 made landfall on Baffin Bay
1959 Debra
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tireman4
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766
FXUS64 KHGX 121219
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
719 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Will be continuing the Heat Advisory for portions of SE TX for today
as power outages persist. Peak heat index values are should run from
100-103F this afternoon. While this is still well below our criteria
normally in place for a Heat Advisory, the ongoing issues with power
outages will keep an elevated risk for heat-related issues in place.

Otherwise, the forecast should remain in the active side as the area
remains in a weakness region between the upper ridges (one in/around
the Four Corners and the other near the East Coast). At the surface,
weak ridging and light onshore winds to linger. Weak disturbances in
the SW flow aloft should help with development as showers/storms be-
gin forming with the seabreeze along/near this coast by late morning.
With plenty of moisture in place (PWs 2-2.4"), heavy downpours could
occur through this afternoon. While the highest POPs are going to be
over the central and coastal CWA, activity could reach our northern-
most counties by late afternoon. Overall, coverage to will be on the
decrease by this evening with the loss of daytime heating.

And per models, this general set-up will remain in place for Sat. So
more of the same is expected tomorrow.

As for temperatures, highs for both today and tomorrow will range in
the lower and mid 90s. This should result in peak afternoon heat in-
dex values from 100-103F. Overnight lows will be in the mid to upper
70s as muggy conditions prevail. 41

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A stagnant synoptic pattern typical of the summer months will
continue throughout the end of the weekend and into next week,
allowing for the period of hot and humid weather with isolated
thunderstorm development chances to continue for the foreseeable
future. By Monday, global models continue to indicate the presence
of a robust mid/upper ridge over the western third of the CONUS,
while a broad area of surface high pressure remains situated over
the Central/Eastern Gulf. With little in the way of large-scale
forcing to speak of, conditions in the extended term should remain
relatively consistent. A light but nonetheless steady onshore flow
will continue to promote deep moisture -- with surface dew points
generally sitting in the mid/upper 70s. With diurnal heating/the
inland propagation of the sea and bay breeze boundary, there
should be sufficient instability to support isolated thunderstorm
activity each afternoon. While the majority of development should
generally remain situated along and south of the I-10 corridor,
it`s impossible to rule out some isolated precipitation further to
the north.

Temperatures will continue to sit in the mid/upper 90s, generally
increasing over the course of the extended period as the
aforementioned ridge aloft strengthens and pushes gradually to the
east. Maximum heat index values will reach around 105 by Sunday,
and may push as high as 110 as we head into next week. As such,
additional Heat Advisories may be needed regardless of
circumstances surrounding the post-Beryl power outages. Heat
stress will be further aggravated by light winds and generally
clear skies, resulting in relatively high WBGT values. As such,
heat safety precautions will continue to remain very important.

Looking a bit beyond the period, the most recent GFS/EC runs show
the approach of a frontal boundary next Friday/Saturday that
should wash out just to our north. Nonetheless, this feature (and
subsequent outflows from resulting convection) may be the impetus
for our next round of widespread rainfall. Too early to be
definitive about this prospect for now, but nonetheless something
to monitor.

Cady

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 648 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Forecast for today should be very similar to that of yesterday (and
the day before). Generally VFR but lower CIGS/VIS will occur as SH/
TSRAs developing along and near the seabreeze (at the coast) begins
moving further inland through the afternoon. Best chances for show-
ers/thunderstorms should remain mostly south of CXO, with only iso-
lated activity north. Coverage will be decreasing by late afternoon
and early evening. Patchy fog will be possible again tonight...most
likely our northern terminals. Light/variable winds this morning to
become light S/SE (around 10 kts) this afternoon. 41

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 257 AM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

A generally benign marine pattern will prevail through the weekend
and into next week. Light onshore winds, along with seas of 2-3
feet, will make the prospect of caution flags a very unlikely one.
There will be daily chances for thunderstorms, though coverage
will remain isolated in nature. Still, some brief locally higher
waves/winds may occur with any stronger storms.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 91 74 93 75 / 30 10 30 10
Houston (IAH) 89 76 91 77 / 50 20 50 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 81 89 81 / 50 30 30 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ164-177>179-199-
200-213-214-226-227-236>238-300-313-336>338-436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...41
LONG TERM....Cady
AVIATION...41
MARINE...Cady
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Rip76
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Some boomers out here in the Woodlands today.
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tireman4
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&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1224 PM CDT Fri Jul 12 2024

Scattered shra/tsra activity will continue to impact the region
through this afternoon, before diminishing late afternoon early
evening. Winds will generally be light while flight conditions
will generally be VFR. However, sub-VFR and brief gusty winds
possible in TSRA. Patchy fog possible again tonight with areas
north of IAH having the best chance of patchy fog. Tomorrow
appears similar to today.
Stratton20
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Beautiful! Just absolutely beautiful!
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