Hurricane Beryl

General Weather Discussions and Analysis
Pas_Bon
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Tx2005 wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:09 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:02 am Look, the Space City Weather guys have always been great. They were great for Harvey and afterwards.
They have had some large misses lately, however. Of course, weather prognostication is never clear, nor an exact science.
They are so much into "hype-free forecasts," however, that I think they subconsciously discount any early concern for our area.
For example, on July 1, they stated...."we're not really concerned about Hurricane Beryl and Texas."
Again, on FRIDAY, July 5, Matt Lanza stated roughly the same, but for the Houston metro area.

They, along with Wxman57 on 2k forums, do not possess super secret meteorologist strength. A lot of success in meteorology is understanding a LOT of things lay people just don't know. Some of it is luck.
Bob Breck (NOLA met), famously in 2005, practically laughed at anyone suggesting Katrina would go anywhere other than Florida. Carl Arredondo (NOLA met) basically said the same. These commentaries were on their Thursday nightly broadcasts. The NHC shifted the track to the Pearl River for their 4pm update on Friday, 8/26/2005.

No one TRULY knows where these things make landfall ahead of time. Best guess rules the day. NHC has been pretty accurate compared to all others. Even they are not perfect.
My only beef with the SCW guys is how they speak with certainty while uncertainty still exists. I get that they want to avoid the opposite end of people claiming every storm is a category 5 that will hit Houston directly and the media is lying, but unfortunately speaking like this won't be an issue 5-6 days out understandably upsets people when they have to scramble 1-2 days before landfall when things change. I think they need to be more open about the probabilities of different outcomes. They do at times, but it's typically buried deep in a post while the headline or summary at the top of the post screams "nothing to worry about here". Since most people likely don't read the entire post, they never get far past the headline.

I honestly think Travis Herzog played this one well. He spoke to what we knew at the time while also pointing out uncertainties and possible risks. I've seen people on other places (Texags specifically) claim him to be a fear monger, but I think how he did it what is necessary. You can't please the masses of course no matter what you do.
Exactly. People will bitch and moan unnecessarily and people will praise and deify unnecessarily.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Herzog and SCW guys are very intelligent and have consumed more real time and real life, in the details, meteorological scenarios than I ever will.

It’s really frustrating to see commoners challenging their skill sets, but in the age of social dumbass media, it’s become expected.

With that said, I’d far more likely have a drink or six with Herzog over the SCW guys, LOL.
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dp6
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I can't see Travis Herzog blowharding the way Lanza did yesterday on Twitter. This kind of stuff (and their too often insertion of politics) is why I've been out on SCW.

https://x.com/mattlanza/status/1810721772280393840

And that's the last I will say about them, point made.
cperk
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Tx2005 wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:09 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:02 am Look, the Space City Weather guys have always been great. They were great for Harvey and afterwards.
They have had some large misses lately, however. Of course, weather prognostication is never clear, nor an exact science.
They are so much into "hype-free forecasts," however, that I think they subconsciously discount any early concern for our area.
For example, on July 1, they stated...."we're not really concerned about Hurricane Beryl and Texas."
Again, on FRIDAY, July 5, Matt Lanza stated roughly the same, but for the Houston metro area.

They, along with Wxman57 on 2k forums, do not possess super secret meteorologist strength. A lot of success in meteorology is understanding a LOT of things lay people just don't know. Some of it is luck.
Bob Breck (NOLA met), famously in 2005, practically laughed at anyone suggesting Katrina would go anywhere other than Florida. Carl Arredondo (NOLA met) basically said the same. These commentaries were on their Thursday nightly broadcasts. The NHC shifted the track to the Pearl River for their 4pm update on Friday, 8/26/2005.

No one TRULY knows where these things make landfall ahead of time. Best guess rules the day. NHC has been pretty accurate compared to all others. Even they are not perfect.
My only beef with the SCW guys is how they speak with certainty while uncertainty still exists. I get that they want to avoid the opposite end of people claiming every storm is a category 5 that will hit Houston directly and the media is lying, but unfortunately speaking like this won't be an issue 5-6 days out understandably upsets people when they have to scramble 1-2 days before landfall when things change. I think they need to be more open about the probabilities of different outcomes. They do at times, but it's typically buried deep in a post while the headline or summary at the top of the post screams "nothing to worry about here". Since most people likely don't read the entire post, they never get far past the headline.

I honestly think Travis Herzog played this one well. He spoke to what we knew at the time while also pointing out uncertainties and possible risks. I've seen people on other places (Texags specifically) claim him to be a fear monger, but I think how he did it what is necessary. You can't please the masses of course no matter what you do.
The absolute and certainty is what irritates me.
Cpv17
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cperk wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 12:41 pm
Tx2005 wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:09 am
Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:02 am Look, the Space City Weather guys have always been great. They were great for Harvey and afterwards.
They have had some large misses lately, however. Of course, weather prognostication is never clear, nor an exact science.
They are so much into "hype-free forecasts," however, that I think they subconsciously discount any early concern for our area.
For example, on July 1, they stated...."we're not really concerned about Hurricane Beryl and Texas."
Again, on FRIDAY, July 5, Matt Lanza stated roughly the same, but for the Houston metro area.

They, along with Wxman57 on 2k forums, do not possess super secret meteorologist strength. A lot of success in meteorology is understanding a LOT of things lay people just don't know. Some of it is luck.
Bob Breck (NOLA met), famously in 2005, practically laughed at anyone suggesting Katrina would go anywhere other than Florida. Carl Arredondo (NOLA met) basically said the same. These commentaries were on their Thursday nightly broadcasts. The NHC shifted the track to the Pearl River for their 4pm update on Friday, 8/26/2005.

No one TRULY knows where these things make landfall ahead of time. Best guess rules the day. NHC has been pretty accurate compared to all others. Even they are not perfect.
My only beef with the SCW guys is how they speak with certainty while uncertainty still exists. I get that they want to avoid the opposite end of people claiming every storm is a category 5 that will hit Houston directly and the media is lying, but unfortunately speaking like this won't be an issue 5-6 days out understandably upsets people when they have to scramble 1-2 days before landfall when things change. I think they need to be more open about the probabilities of different outcomes. They do at times, but it's typically buried deep in a post while the headline or summary at the top of the post screams "nothing to worry about here". Since most people likely don't read the entire post, they never get far past the headline.

I honestly think Travis Herzog played this one well. He spoke to what we knew at the time while also pointing out uncertainties and possible risks. I've seen people on other places (Texags specifically) claim him to be a fear monger, but I think how he did it what is necessary. You can't please the masses of course no matter what you do.
The absolute and certainty is what irritates me.
This ^
Cromagnum
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Well, got an offer on the table now to be a Director for the technical team at a small tech company out of North Austin that manufacturs field analyzers. Trying to weigh the risk of a small outfit making it vs the stable (but no upward momentum for me) job at a big chemical company. Compensation and location are certainly much better, risk aside.
Tx2005
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Pas_Bon wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 11:56 am On the contrary, the one individual (professional met) that stands out with Beryl was Travis Herzog. He preached caution for HOU early on and even as all models/forecasts pointed to N Mex/S Tex.
Who knows….maybe he will whiff in the future. All nets have their storm and all Mets also have “their storm.”

It’s not exact. It happens. It doesn’t make them great or poor. Consistency and conviction are key.
I don't mind somebody being wrong, because we all know the weather is unpredictable. What I appreciate about Herzog is that at least this time, he pointed out what the models said was likely to happen while also letting us know to not let our guard down because of the real, even if not likely at the time, possibility that Houston could be directly affected. I'm sure he would get grief if the storm ended up going to Mexico or South Texas, but I personally appreciate his approach and I will definitely pay attention to him more in the future.

I'll also add that as mentioned above, SCW really needs to ease up in the certainty and be more open to unlikely but very possible options. I think there is a way to do it without violating the "no hype" mantra they advertise (ie. see Herzog). Unfortunately, Lanza's twitter thread linked above makes it obvious they aren't changing how they operate.
Last edited by Tx2005 on Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:05 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:38 pm Well, got an offer on the table now to be a Director for the technical team at a small tech company out of North Austin that manufacturs field analyzers. Trying to weigh the risk of a small outfit making it vs the stable (but no upward momentum for me) job at a big chemical company. Compensation and location are certainly much better, risk aside.
Live in Thrall or Thorndale and drive to North Austin. It’s about 45-1 hr.

Problem solved and you don’t have to live in a city run by bigger idiots than the ones in Houston.
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Cromagnum
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:03 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:38 pm Well, got an offer on the table now to be a Director for the technical team at a small tech company out of North Austin that manufacturs field analyzers. Trying to weigh the risk of a small outfit making it vs the stable (but no upward momentum for me) job at a big chemical company. Compensation and location are certainly much better, risk aside.
Live in Thrall or Thorndale and drive to North Austin. It’s about 45-1 hr.

Problem solved and you don’t have to live in a city run by bigger idiots than the ones in Houston.
Yeah, no way I'm living inside Travis County. My brother in law's family all live in Georgetown and my mother in law will likely be relocating to Sun City before too long. If I take the gig, will probably live in Williamson County somewhere, Georgetown, Cedar Park, or possibly even Round Rock.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:24 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:03 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:38 pm Well, got an offer on the table now to be a Director for the technical team at a small tech company out of North Austin that manufacturs field analyzers. Trying to weigh the risk of a small outfit making it vs the stable (but no upward momentum for me) job at a big chemical company. Compensation and location are certainly much better, risk aside.
Live in Thrall or Thorndale and drive to North Austin. It’s about 45-1 hr.

Problem solved and you don’t have to live in a city run by bigger idiots than the ones in Houston.
Yeah, no way I'm living inside Travis County. My brother in law's family all live in Georgetown and my mother in law will likely be relocating to Sun City before too long. If I take the gig, will probably live in Williamson County somewhere, Georgetown, Cedar Park, or possibly even Round Rock.
Ah, I forgot Thrall was in WillCo. Go Thorndale which is in Milam Co.

WillCo is getting worse by the day, similar to Fort Bend here. I’m speaking mainly to crime and idiotic County leaders and state reps.
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Cromagnum
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Good lord, cut us a break. Now we have some huge thunderstorms all over the place making it impossible for linemen to work.
davidiowx
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MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:54 pm WillCo is getting worse by the day, similar to Fort Bend here. I’m speaking mainly to crime and idiotic County leaders and state reps.
You can say that again
cperk
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davidiowx wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:59 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:54 pm WillCo is getting worse by the day, similar to Fort Bend here. I’m speaking mainly to crime and idiotic County leaders and state reps.
You can say that again
I've lived in fort bend county for over 30 years and I love it here and disagree with much you've stated.
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srainhoutx
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Keep it on the weather please. Thanks!
Carla/Alicia/Jerry(In The Eye)/Michelle/Charley/Ivan/Dennis/Katrina/Rita/Wilma/Humberto/Ike/Harvey

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cperk
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:56 pm Keep it on the weather please. Thanks!
Sorry srain.
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MontgomeryCoWx
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srainhoutx wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 3:56 pm Keep it on the weather please. Thanks!
My bad.

And cperk, where you live is still a good place to live (Rosenberg/Richmond).
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Cromagnum
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Thunderstorms earlier were good for cloud cover and some rain cooled air, but not much else. Don't need more for yards yet and don't need lightning shutting down Utility work.
Dls2010r
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For all you newbies!!!!’ This is a good learning lesson!!!!’ THIS ISNT IKE!!’
IKE sucked!!!!!!! Tried being to a fireman on the island!!!!!!
Dls2010r
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And yes this storm sucked!!!!!! I can tell you some stories. I’m old!!!!
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DoctorMu
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Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:24 pm
MontgomeryCoWx wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 2:03 pm
Cromagnum wrote: Wed Jul 10, 2024 1:38 pm Well, got an offer on the table now to be a Director for the technical team at a small tech company out of North Austin that manufacturs field analyzers. Trying to weigh the risk of a small outfit making it vs the stable (but no upward momentum for me) job at a big chemical company. Compensation and location are certainly much better, risk aside.
Live in Thrall or Thorndale and drive to North Austin. It’s about 45-1 hr.

Problem solved and you don’t have to live in a city run by bigger idiots than the ones in Houston.
Yeah, no way I'm living inside Travis County. My brother in law's family all live in Georgetown and my mother in law will likely be relocating to Sun City before too long. If I take the gig, will probably live in Williamson County somewhere, Georgetown, Cedar Park, or possibly even Round Rock.
i would highly recommend Georgetown. It's a beautiful little city. Hurricanes and tornadoes are hardly a threat there. Summers are dry but less humid.
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