Hurricane Beryl

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mcheer23
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Tropical Storm BERYL
As of 18:00 UTC Jun 29, 2024:

Location: 10.0°N 48.5°W
Maximum Winds: 60 kt Gusts: N/A
Minimum Central Pressure: 995 mb
Environmental Pressure: N/A
Radius of Circulation: N/A
Radius of Maximum wind: 15 nm
50 kt Wind Radii by Quadrant:
Cpv17
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Beryl’s track is largely dependent upon its intensity. The 12z EPS is a good example of this. A weaker storm will keep this further S, while a stronger storm would go further N. The 12 EPS splits into two different camps after the Yucatan Peninsula.
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tireman4
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Zach Nice
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tireman4
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don
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I'm watching Beryl (and possibly future Chris) closely as models are showing a trough moving into the plains and creating a weakness over Texas. If that trough ends up being stronger than indicated at this time and erodes that ridge more,watch out Texas...

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biggerbyte
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Yup. In the BOC lifting north. It's certainly a scenario to entertain.
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tireman4
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Hurricane Beryl now
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tireman4
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Hurricane Beryl
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Cpv17
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don wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 3:20 pm I'm watching Beryl (and possibly future Chris) closely as models are showing a trough moving into the plains and creating a weakness over Texas. If that trough ends up being stronger than indicated at this time and erodes that ridge more,watch out Texas...


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Today’s 12 EPS made things more interesting. Could be a NW turn around or after the Yucatan. I just question if there will be anything left of it. If the shear in the Caribbean weakens it significantly then most likely it goes into Mexico.
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Beryl is our first hurricane of the season. From the deep Atlantic. In June. Yikes.
biggerbyte
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Cpv17 wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 3:47 pm
don wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 3:20 pm I'm watching Beryl (and possibly future Chris) closely as models are showing a trough moving into the plains and creating a weakness over Texas. If that trough ends up being stronger than indicated at this time and erodes that ridge more,watch out Texas...


Screenshot 2024-06-29 a[...].png

Scree3nshot 2024-06-29 a[...].png
Today’s 12 EPS made things more interesting. Could be a NW turn around or after the Yucatan. I just question if there will be anything left of it. If the shear in the Caribbean weakens it significantly then most likely it goes into Mexico.
Shear is supposed to move away as Beryl approaches. We will see about that.
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The outcome seems to be pretty simplified at this juncture. As it crosses the Yucatan will shear and land knock it down. If it does not, we will have a nasty hurricane headed generally towards Texas.
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Its beginning to clear out its eye, Beryl is about to really explode soon….
Scott747
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Looking upstream Beryl is going to get picked up on the 18z GFS with a heading towards the lower/mid Texas coast.
Stratton20
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GFS cat 2 just south of corpus
biggerbyte
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Folks, latest data suggests high pressure may not be as strong as otherwise thought. Also, Beryl has the potential to come in very strong and thus not weaken enough to keep carrying it west.

Having said that, we in Texas have some things to talk about. This could get very nasty. In June and Early July? What? I'm anxious to sew how things look tomorrow.
Stratton20
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Newst hurricanes models are in, TVCN has a more N-NW motion in the western gulf, very interesting
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Stratton20 wrote: Sat Jun 29, 2024 8:03 pm Newst hurricanes models are in, TVCN has a more N-NW motion in the western gulf, very interesting
Yep, I mentioned yesterday that there was some signs that it could take a NW turn near the Yucatan Peninsula.
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Cpv17 yup this is getting interesting, but what has me somewhat alarmed is the fact that the SHIP has at least a 26% probability of Beryl attaining 65 kt in 72 hours which would put it at cat 5 territory
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