August 2024

[tireman4]

Something tells me this might be an interesting month.

[Cpv17]

Something tells me this might be an interesting month.

I agree.

[Cpv17]

Looks like the wet pattern will stick around into the first week of the month.

[Pas_Bon]

Something tells me this might be an interesting month.

You’re not allowed to say that anymore. Lol
You said it to start the July thread and look at what you did. Boooo

[Ptarmigan]

August is when hurricane season starts heating up.

[DoctorMu]

The grass is still green. It was yellow-brown last year.

Give me a trough every week or two and we're good.

CFP practice begins today.

[tireman4]

165
FXUS64 KHGX 011113
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
613 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

While a milky haze from Saharan dust remains in the picture late
this week, the focus for this forecast period remains the heat.
Today, as with past days, we remain right on the verge of the
threshold for a heat advisory, but conditions Friday and Saturday
look decidedly hotter, and heat advisories appear quite likely
going into the weekend. Some key points to consider:
- The peak of the heat currently appears to be Friday and
Saturday, with more widespread peak heat index values
around/above 108, and wet bulb globe temp values in the high to
extreme range.
- A weak front looks to stall out in the region late
Saturday/Sunday, which will provide an increase in cloudiness
and the return of some rain chances, which should take the edge
off of the highest end heat, though relief will only be modest.
- Hot conditions look to persist next week, though at this time it
appears to be more at a level akin to previous days, than the
expectations for Friday and Saturday. Still near/above average,
but not quite to advisory levels.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Ol, ol, ol ol...there`s a good chance that your mind and soul
are on fire, and the party people all around are feeling hot hot
hot. That`s not going to be changing heading into the weekend.
Like the last couple of days, we are right on the verge of
requiring a heat advisory, and if today ends up being either any
hotter or any more humid than forecast, a short-fuse advisory may
again be needed. Regardless, we can expect widespread heat index
values in the 103-108 range yet again today, along with isolated
hot spots pushing up briefly towards 110 degrees. This is hot
enough that it will be important to keep heat stress in mind if
you`ve got outdoor activities planned - particularly so if you
are not particularly acclimated to working outdoors in our heat,
and/or if you are looking at doing anything more than light work.

While heat index can be useful in a general sense, as it considers
temperature and humidity in a shaded location, which may well
match just hanging out in the outdoors, those doing more strenuous
activities in locations exposed to the sun may wish to look at the
wet bulb globe temp, as it considers additional factors like solar
radiation (which can make things worse!) and wind (which can
sometimes make things better!). For today, peak WBGT values are in
the high risk range, with isolated hot spots threatening to push
into the extreme range.

Tomorrow, though, looks a bit different. While the airmass in
place looks to see dewpoints mix out to a similar place as today,
forecast highs drift up from the low/mid 90s to more solidly into
the middle 90s across the area. This is likely to push up enough
locations to a peak heat index above 108 that a heat advisory
seems very likely. Additionally, in looking at the WBGT forecast,
the presence of a surface high closer to the area is expected to
pull winds down a bit, which will do less work to mitigate WBGT
values along with the slightly higher temps. If tonight`s forecast
verifies, tomorrow would feature a strong mix of high to extreme
risk WBGT values, further supporting the idea that the heat
environment tomorrow looks notably more severe than today and
recent days.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Ridging remains in place over the Western CONUS/Great Basin on
Saturday while an upper level trough continues across the
Tennessee/Ohio Valley. This trough is progged to push a weak back-
door frontal boundary across portions of the South-Central to
Southeast CONUS. Ahead of this boundary, surface high pressure over
the wester Gulf of Mexico will bring southwesterly flow across the
area. This, in combination of compressional heating from the
approaching boundary, should maintain hot conditions, despite the
upper level ridge further distancing itself from SE Texas. Highs are
progged to be in the upper 80s to upper 90s with isolated spots
nearing triple digits. Dewpoints in the mid/upper 70s will put heat
indices around 107-112 degrees. WBGT values indicate extreme heat
stress during the afternoon hours, which will likely warrant a Heat
Advisory. Saharan dust will also bring one more day of haze before
the dust plume aloft disperses.

The weak boundary stalls out near the Brazos Valley sometime
Saturday evening/early Sunday. This should help initiate
shower/storm development in the vicinity overnight into Sunday.
Shortwave impulses rounding the edge of the upper level ridge looks
to further enhance rain chances on Sunday and in turn provide some
mild relief from the heat. The remnants of the weak frontal
boundary lifts north on Monday as upper level ridging strengthens
again over the Desert Southwest. Weak impulses may undercut the
ridge and produce isolated storms through mid next week. Hot
weather continues with highs still in the upper 80s to upper 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 613 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Isolated IFR VSBY at CXO to start, but otherwise a mix of MVFR and
VFR this morning. Improvement to widespread VFR should occur
within the next few hours, albeit with continued Saharan dust
blanketing the area. Light, mostly southerly winds early should
back more southeasterly and increase to around 10 knots this
afternoon, perhaps with some localized gustiness. Returning to
light winds overnight, continued VFR but with some patchy fog
possible in known problem spots (LBX among them).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 245 AM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Light to occasionally moderate winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can
be expected throughout the week. Light streamer showers will be
possible at times, otherwise rain chances will remain slim, only
increasing meaningfully later this weekend. Saharan dust may bring
slightly hazy conditions over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 96 75 97 77 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 78 98 78 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 90 79 / 0 0 0 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....03
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...03

[DoctorMu]

Debby will be no Downer here. Florida bound.

[Stratton20]

Unfortunately future debby is probably just the precursor of whats to come very soon, especially for the gulf, buckle up folks, the show is only just beginning!

[jasons2k]

Looks like the wet pattern will stick around into the first week of the month.

Rain chances this weekend have dropped to 20% for me, and the weather apps are just hot and sunny for the next 10 days.

[tireman4]

588
FXUS64 KHGX 012006
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
306 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Friday Night)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Tranquil but hot conditions expected to prevail across Southeast
Texas through the end of the work week as high pressure dominates
the local weather pattern.

We are expecting mostly clear to partly cloudy skies tonight and
Friday night with lows in the mid to upper 70s inland and the upper
70s to low 80s along the coast. Areas of patchy fog could develop in
some locations during the early morning hours and is expected to
quickly burn off shortly after sunrise. For Friday, partly cloudy
skies with slightly hotter temperatures are anticipated. The highs
will be in the mid to upper 90s for areas near and north of I-10 and
in the low to mid 90s closer to the coasts. Heat indices will be
roughtly between 105-110 deg F and a Heat Advisory could be issued
for portions of Southeast Texas later. Continue to practice heat
safety to protect yourself and your loved ones from the heat and
sun, including pets. If you are to spend time outdoors or in areas
with poor ventilation, drink plenty of fluids, stay out of the
direct sun if able, wear lightweight and loose fitting clothing, and
try to limit strenuous activities to early morning or evening. If
it`s too hot for your hands, then it`s too hot for their paws. NEVER
leave children or pets unattended in a vehicle.

Cotto (24)

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

With a prevailing northerly flow aloft, a weak backdoor frontal
boundary is forecast to sag somewhere close to northeast parts of
our CWA late Sat-Sun. There remains some deterministic model
support for some isolated to scattered tstm development late in
the afternoon or evening should convective temps be hit southwest
of this boundary. Otherwise, look for a hot weekend with highs in
the 95-100F range. Forecast heat index values and WBGT indicate
the potential for some Heat Advisories (moreso Saturday).

Large ridge positioned over the Rockies should expand eastward
across the Southern Plains into the Tennessee Valley next week.
We`ll be positioned on its southern periphery whereas above normal
temps should prevail, and just low rain chances (if any) near the
coast. 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1252 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

VFR conditions expected for much of the TAF period with brief
periods of MVFR cigs possible during the early morning hours Fri.
SE winds at 5-10 KTS this afternoon, becoming light and VRB
tonight into Fri morning. Some HZ may linger until Fri but is not
expected to result in a sig reduction in vis.

Cotto (24)


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 306 PM CDT Thu Aug 1 2024

Light winds and low seas will continue into next week. As surface
high pressure makes its toward and into the Western Gulf, we will
probably see a more predominant landbreeze/seabreeze circulation
emerge. This consists of offshore winds late at night and in the
morning followed by onshore wind directions in the afternoon
through late evening hours. 47

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 76 97 77 100 / 0 0 0 10
Houston (IAH) 77 97 78 99 / 0 0 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 90 79 90 / 0 0 0 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.

&&

$$

[Cpv17]

Looks like the wet pattern will stick around into the first week of the month.

Rain chances this weekend have dropped to 20% for me, and the weather apps are just hot and sunny for the next 10 days.

Yeah, unfortunately it changed.

[Stratton20]

Yeah this is what i call big suck weather, awful heat, mosquitoes and sunshine, not a great combination at all lol

[MontgomeryCoWx]

Worst month of the year, no doubt

[Cpv17]

Yeah this is what i call big suck weather, awful heat, mosquitoes and sunshine, not a great combination at all lol

Yeah, it’s terrible. I have a heat rash all over the back of my legs from being out in the heat at work.

[Stratton20]

Cpv17 I took my dog out for a quick walk around the park, 20 minutes later I think i had about 6-7 mosquitoes coming for me, lovely times

[Cpv17]

Cpv17 I took my dog out for a quick walk around the park, 20 minutes later I think i had about 6-7 mosquitoes coming for me, lovely times

Mosquitoes over here are currently about the worst I’ve seen. I can’t even open up my car door for 5 seconds without letting 10 mosquitoes in my car.

[tireman4]

353
FXUS64 KHGX 021115
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
615 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Heat has been the focus of the short term forecast with a small side
of haze for the past few days, and that main focus is not looking to
change - indeed, conditions look to be hot enough today and tomorrow
that a heat advisory is in place from noon today through 7pm
Saturday. After that, however, a weak front looks to try to slide on
into Southeast Texas. For the most part, the implications of this
are largely in the long term, and I will leave it to you, dear
reader, to take that in down there. For Saturday night, however,
there will be a slight chance of showers or even a storm along the
boundary. I`m not anticipating a ton of action - this is a scenario
in which I consider the potential for getting rain *somewhere* in
the area to be rather high...but the potential for getting rain *at
any given point* is going to be pretty low.

But this slight chance of rain aside, I really do need to put the
focus on the heat. It is always tough around here, where the space
between normal summer heat, above normal summer heat, and life-
threatening summer heat is very muddled. But while the past few days
have had more of a sense of the former two labels, today and
tomorrow look to take on a bit more of the feel of the latter two
labels. Thanks to forecast high temperatures drifting up a little
more into the mid-upper 90s, and perhaps more importantly - with
precipitable water rising from around 70% of normal to 85% of normal
or higher - peak heat index values should reach or even exceed 108
degrees across a broader swath of Southeast Texas, and also for more
than brief stretches in the afternoon today and tomorrow. Tomorrow,
even, my forecast begins to dot some very isolated speckles of 113-
114 HI. I don`t expect it will be more than localized hot spots for
brief stretches, and not enough to require an excessive heat
warning...but it also gives pretty high confidence for continuing
the heat advisory through tomorrow.

Rather than two separate advisories, I`ve opted to carry one
advisory through the night. This is primarily due to the fact that
overnight lows look to fall into the upper 70s at best. Near the
Gulf, we may be looking at lows around or just above 80 degrees.
The lack of ability to get even nighttime relief will only
exacerbate heat stress conditions on Saturday, as heat generally
does have a cumulative impact on human bodies.

If you`re going to be doing strenuous activity this weekend, first
try to move as much of your activity to the morning or evening as
possible. Conditions will not be as extreme as in the mid-day and
afternoon. During the mid-day and afternoon stretch of peak sunshine
and then peak temperature, try to stay in an air-conditioned space
if one is available to you. Whenever you are out and about, please
make the hydration breaks frequent and generous in length. This is
particularly true if you`re not well acclimated to moderate/hard
work in SE Texas heat, but will still be important even if you are
better acclimated. In looking at the forecast wet bulb globe temp
for today, conditions look to have a high WBGT risk across Southeast
Texas, with widespread extreme risk. Tomorrow may be even worse,
with the WBGT risk maxing out in the extreme range across nearly all
of SE Texas. Be sure to be alert to heat illness in yourself and
others around you. The old adage "Slow is smooth, and smooth is
fast" applies very much in this situation. Better to go at a slower,
sustainable rate than to go too hard and burn out fast, ruining the
rest of your day/weekend/forever(?).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

A weakening and increasingly diffused backdoor cold front, coupled
with a possible weak shortwave are expected to bring a chance of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The
best chance of rain will be across our southern and coastal
counties where PoPs are generally 20-30 percent. By Monday and
beyond, a large subtropical ridge over the Rockies will expand
eastward and dominate the weather pattern over southeast Texas.
Temperatures in the long term will be seasonably awful, with
inland highs in the mid/upper 90s and lows in the mid/upper 70s.
Closer to the coast, highs are expected to be in the low 90s with
lows around 80. Once humidity is factored, heat index values
should easily surpass 105 and could reach Heat Advisory criteria
(108 degrees). Experimental WBGT based HeatRisk products also
suggest the potential need for additional heat advisories.

In about two weeks, the average high and low temperatures (based
off a 30-year average from 1991-2020) begin their slow decline. We
have a long way to go until Autumn. But climatologically
speaking, the next two weeks are the peak of the summer heat.
Hopefully we can soon declare that the worst of summer is behind
us. Only time will tell!

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 615 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Generally VFR with very little wind this morning, but this also is
allowing for localized VSBY restrictions to emerge in known foggy
spots. At worst, LBX has fallen to 1/4SM briefly. Keep the status
quo for the next 2-3 hours, then quickly bring everything to VFR
as sun rises and light southerly winds should both work to
dissipate any fog. Looking at roughly a persistence forecast from
here on out, with sunset bringing a return to light/calm wind
situation and likely patchy fog, again worst in the known problem
spots (in addition to LBX, possibly also CXO and SGR).

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 214 AM CDT Fri Aug 2 2024

Relatively light winds and low seas are expected to prevail over
the next 5-7 days. We are monitoring the potential for a weakening
frontal boundary along with a weak shortave to bring a chance of
isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms on Sunday. The
best chance of a thunderstorm will be over the nearshore waters
and bays.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 77 100 76 / 0 0 10 20
Houston (IAH) 98 78 99 78 / 0 0 10 20
Galveston (GLS) 90 79 91 80 / 0 0 10 10

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Heat Advisory from noon today to 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-
164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-300-313-335>338-
436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Luchs
LONG TERM....Self
AVIATION...Luchs
MARINE...Self

[jasons2k]

Sprinklers reactivated. What happened to being wedged in a weakness?!?

[DoctorMu]

Sprinklers reactivated. What happened to being wedged in a weakness?!?

Exactly. No TS for the Western Gulf, but The Big Suck makes an appearance instead.

It's feast or famine.