August 2024
Loving these tropical cloud decks.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5204
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
TSRA will continue to develop and increase in coverage this
afternoon. Reduced visibility and erratic wind gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms. Expect off and on showers and
storms near/at terminals through at least 22Z Tuesday - 00Z
Wednesday. Winds will generally remain light to occasionally
moderate, shifting to the south- southeast this afternoon due to
the sea breeze and/or any outflow boundary. After a lull in
precipitation later this evening, expect a similar forecast on
Wednesday with increasing showers and storms. Continued with
VCSH/VCTS due to moderate confidence in timing and coverage.
Overall, VFR to occasional MVFR conditions will prevail through
most of the period.
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1232 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
TSRA will continue to develop and increase in coverage this
afternoon. Reduced visibility and erratic wind gusts will be
possible with the strongest storms. Expect off and on showers and
storms near/at terminals through at least 22Z Tuesday - 00Z
Wednesday. Winds will generally remain light to occasionally
moderate, shifting to the south- southeast this afternoon due to
the sea breeze and/or any outflow boundary. After a lull in
precipitation later this evening, expect a similar forecast on
Wednesday with increasing showers and storms. Continued with
VCSH/VCTS due to moderate confidence in timing and coverage.
Overall, VFR to occasional MVFR conditions will prevail through
most of the period.
Saw a peak of 4.25" per hour rainfall rate up in Fairfield part of Cypress. Luckily it was moving at a decent clip but a nice 1.35" of rain came in a hurry.
Still waiting over here. Had a few big drops and lightning hit within a mile of me, but all bark no bite here.
Upper 80s to around 90°F. Low about 73°F. In other words, Louisiana.
Last edited by DoctorMu on Tue Aug 27, 2024 3:20 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Mostly gapped today: 0.12 inches. But we have over an inch yesterday evening/night.
Clouds and no sun. The way I like summer in SETX!
Clouds and no sun. The way I like summer in SETX!
Is all of this mess going to dissipate when it gets to the coast? Why does most of the Houston area on south keep seeing these storms dissipate?
Had to tell my new job that I’ve only been at 2 days thank you, but I found something else. Dreaded doing that. Definitely wasn’t an easy thing to do. So glad that’s over with. I feel terrible about it. I’m sure in a few days I’ll get over it though.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4898
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Woah! Now thats a dramatic increase in QPF by the WPC!!
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Mostly offshore though.
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tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5204
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
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697
FXUS64 KHGX 281129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
A somewhat unsettled weather pattern will prevail across
Southeast Texas during the day today and Thursday. For starters,
tranquil weather conditions over the inland portions will
continue early this morning with light winds with some patchy fog
across portions of the Piney Woods region. Later in the morning
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be pushing through areas
south of I-10, and are expected to expand further inland during
the late morning to afternoon hours. Strong storms will be capable
of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief periods
of heavy rainfall. Rain chances will ebb during the evening hours
as daytime heating and instability decrease. Fairly calm weather
expected again during the nighttime hours with partly cloudy
skies.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase over much of
the local area on Thursday as a mid level disturbance over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico moves over our local waters during the
day and into or near the TX/LA border late Thursday into early
Friday. A surge in moisture is expected during the day, rising
local PWs to 2.0-2.4 inches. PVA associated with the disturbance
could to tap into this to result in periods of locally heavy
rainfall, mainly over areas near and south of I-10...and this is
where WPC has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4). Ponding
of water on roadways and minor localized flooding in urban and
poor drainage areas is possible. We are expecting a bit of a lull
in rain Thursday night, but will gradually increase again during
the overnight hours or early Friday morning.
Cloud coverage and rainfall will help reduce our temperatures as
highs go from the low 90s today to the upper 80s and low 90s on
Thursday. The lows will remain in the 70s inland and in the upper
70s to low 80s along the coasts.
Cotto (24)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Keep those umbrellas handy through the weekend and into next week as
the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue. The weak
upper level low will be lingering over SE Texas on Friday, which
combined with with moist onshore flow bringing PWATs to near 2-2.4"
and daytime heating will cause continued scattered showers and
storms. The upper level low begins to slowly drift eastward by late
Saturday into Sunday, which may help reduce the coverage of the
rainfall over the weekend - though it won`t be rain free as the
moisture and sunshine will be enough to trigger at least some
showers. Each day will likely unfold how it has been the past few
days where showers and storms will start off near the coast in the
morning, then working their way inland through the afternoon and
evening. Most people may only see up to 0.25 to 0.5" of rain each
day, but some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Areas near
the coast will have the best chance for seeing these isolated
downpours.
Another upper level low will begin to move into the Southern Plains
early next week. Exact timing and location of it is still a bit
uncertain, but it will likely bring back higher chances of showers
and thunderstorms to the region.
The afternoon high temperatures will be staying near seasonal to
even a few degrees below normal through the long term. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through the
weekend. It is possible that the Pineywoods region may only get into
the low to mid 80s by Tuesday of next week as that next disturbance
moves through. The onshore flow and cloudy skies will keep the
overnight conditions mild and muggy with low temperatures in the low
to mid 70s north of the Harris County, mid to upper 70s along the I-
10 Corridor, and low 80s along the immediate coast through the
weekend.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
UTS/CXO/LBX will be bouncing between MVFR-VFR vis/cigs thru 14Z
due to patchy fog. Areas of SH/TS will move into the coastal
regions this morning, followed by a gradual expansion inland late
morning and afternoon hours. Once again, did not include TEMPOs
since there is low confidence on the exact timing of storms, thus,
continued with VCTS with the intention of adding TEMPOs later
this morning as conditions deteriorate. Strong storms can result
in brief periods of gusty winds and MVFR vis/cigs. Rain chances
will ebb from S to N from late afternoon to evening respectively.
Winds early this morning will be light & VRB winds, turning E-SE
in the afternoon, then light & VRB again by late evening. Passing
SH are possible early Thu morning, mainly for LBX/GLS/HOU.
Cotto (28)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Onshore flow around 5 to 10kt with occasional gusts to 15kt will
continue through early next week. Seas will continue to be around 2
to 3ft as well. There will be a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the period with coverage highest during the
overnight to early morning hours and lingering into the afternoon.
There will be a lulls in the late evenings to early overnight hours
before starting repeating it all again the following day. Winds and
seas will become elevated near any isolated stronger storms.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 74 90 74 / 30 10 50 10
Houston (IAH) 93 77 89 76 / 50 30 90 50
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 89 80 / 70 60 90 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 281129
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
629 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 221 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
A somewhat unsettled weather pattern will prevail across
Southeast Texas during the day today and Thursday. For starters,
tranquil weather conditions over the inland portions will
continue early this morning with light winds with some patchy fog
across portions of the Piney Woods region. Later in the morning
showers and isolated thunderstorms will be pushing through areas
south of I-10, and are expected to expand further inland during
the late morning to afternoon hours. Strong storms will be capable
of producing frequent lightning, gusty winds, and brief periods
of heavy rainfall. Rain chances will ebb during the evening hours
as daytime heating and instability decrease. Fairly calm weather
expected again during the nighttime hours with partly cloudy
skies.
Chances of showers and thunderstorms will increase over much of
the local area on Thursday as a mid level disturbance over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico moves over our local waters during the
day and into or near the TX/LA border late Thursday into early
Friday. A surge in moisture is expected during the day, rising
local PWs to 2.0-2.4 inches. PVA associated with the disturbance
could to tap into this to result in periods of locally heavy
rainfall, mainly over areas near and south of I-10...and this is
where WPC has placed a Marginal Risk (level 1 out of 4). Ponding
of water on roadways and minor localized flooding in urban and
poor drainage areas is possible. We are expecting a bit of a lull
in rain Thursday night, but will gradually increase again during
the overnight hours or early Friday morning.
Cloud coverage and rainfall will help reduce our temperatures as
highs go from the low 90s today to the upper 80s and low 90s on
Thursday. The lows will remain in the 70s inland and in the upper
70s to low 80s along the coasts.
Cotto (24)
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Tuesday)
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Keep those umbrellas handy through the weekend and into next week as
the daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue. The weak
upper level low will be lingering over SE Texas on Friday, which
combined with with moist onshore flow bringing PWATs to near 2-2.4"
and daytime heating will cause continued scattered showers and
storms. The upper level low begins to slowly drift eastward by late
Saturday into Sunday, which may help reduce the coverage of the
rainfall over the weekend - though it won`t be rain free as the
moisture and sunshine will be enough to trigger at least some
showers. Each day will likely unfold how it has been the past few
days where showers and storms will start off near the coast in the
morning, then working their way inland through the afternoon and
evening. Most people may only see up to 0.25 to 0.5" of rain each
day, but some locally heavy rainfall will be possible. Areas near
the coast will have the best chance for seeing these isolated
downpours.
Another upper level low will begin to move into the Southern Plains
early next week. Exact timing and location of it is still a bit
uncertain, but it will likely bring back higher chances of showers
and thunderstorms to the region.
The afternoon high temperatures will be staying near seasonal to
even a few degrees below normal through the long term. High
temperatures will be in the upper 80s to low 90s through the
weekend. It is possible that the Pineywoods region may only get into
the low to mid 80s by Tuesday of next week as that next disturbance
moves through. The onshore flow and cloudy skies will keep the
overnight conditions mild and muggy with low temperatures in the low
to mid 70s north of the Harris County, mid to upper 70s along the I-
10 Corridor, and low 80s along the immediate coast through the
weekend.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 619 AM CDT Wed Aug 28 2024
UTS/CXO/LBX will be bouncing between MVFR-VFR vis/cigs thru 14Z
due to patchy fog. Areas of SH/TS will move into the coastal
regions this morning, followed by a gradual expansion inland late
morning and afternoon hours. Once again, did not include TEMPOs
since there is low confidence on the exact timing of storms, thus,
continued with VCTS with the intention of adding TEMPOs later
this morning as conditions deteriorate. Strong storms can result
in brief periods of gusty winds and MVFR vis/cigs. Rain chances
will ebb from S to N from late afternoon to evening respectively.
Winds early this morning will be light & VRB winds, turning E-SE
in the afternoon, then light & VRB again by late evening. Passing
SH are possible early Thu morning, mainly for LBX/GLS/HOU.
Cotto (28)
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1125 PM CDT Tue Aug 27 2024
Onshore flow around 5 to 10kt with occasional gusts to 15kt will
continue through early next week. Seas will continue to be around 2
to 3ft as well. There will be a chance for scattered showers and
thunderstorms through the period with coverage highest during the
overnight to early morning hours and lingering into the afternoon.
There will be a lulls in the late evenings to early overnight hours
before starting repeating it all again the following day. Winds and
seas will become elevated near any isolated stronger storms.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 74 90 74 / 30 10 50 10
Houston (IAH) 93 77 89 76 / 50 30 90 50
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 89 80 / 70 60 90 70
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Cotto
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Cotto (24)
MARINE...Fowler
Today, I have the lowest rain chances all week but based on what I see today may be the first day I finally get rain. Usually how it goes…
Models have most of the rain staying offshore through the next 1-2 weeks. We’ll get some rain, but it doesn’t look like anything crazy.
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4898
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
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Cpv17 I disagree, WPC has 4-7 inches across se texas, weatherbell allows me to zoom into the WPC’s QPF, the houson metro is in the 4-7 inch range, think thays pretty reasonable over the next week or so
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Stratton20
- Posts: 4898
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Se texas should get some very healthy rains, heaviest at the coast, but this is a good general thinking, 1-3 inches north of i-10, 4-7 inches across the houston metro and points south, 8-10+ at the coast
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