East Oklahoma by the roots of the Ouachitas is quite scenic along 75, 69, 271, 270, etc..
Reed Timmer should be doing drive-bys in Dominator 3 a few times a year in Wichita Falls!
September 2024
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
588
FXUS64 KHGX 161117
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
A non-tropical low off the Southeastern coastline is progged to
pull in the discarded remnants of Francine currently over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow the upper ridge over
Texas shift eastward. In spite of the ridge`s greater influence,
northerly low-level flow and cooler 850mb temperatures should
bring slighter cooler highs. By in large, highs will in the upper
80s to upper 90s across the area, possibly a degree or so cooler
compared to Sunday. Subsidence and lacking upper level support
should keep rain chances slim. Tuesday will feature equally benign
weather as well, with lows largely in the 70s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Mostly dry with moderate to major heat risk are the main weather
story in the long term. Ridging aloft remains strong with the axis
extending to our west across the central and southern Plains. At
the surface, high pressure to our east will continue to bring warm
and humid southerly flow into the region. As we head into the
weekend, 500 mb heights increase even more (around 588-591 dm),
suggesting more subsidence/drier conditions. Even with a dry layer
at mid to upper levels, there are still some low level moisture,
especially near the coast. Therefore, cannot rule out an isolated
shower/storm or two developing along the sea breeze, mainly in
the afternoon/early evening. Previous forecast had chances of
rain/storm next Saturday and Sunday. However, with the center of
the ridge situated over the region; any activity that attempt to
develop will need to overcome the cap and any dry air entrainment.
Have leaned towards a drier forecast with PoPs only around 15
percent.
Temperature-wise, it will continue to be hot with highs mainly in
the mid 90s. This is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Peak heat
index values will generally be into the 105 to 107 degF range.
Thursday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week with heat
indices at or above advisory criteria across our southwestern
counties. Heat headlines will be possible.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Mix of MVFR to LIFR Fog/CIGS should clear up later this morning
after sunrise. VFR conditions and light winds, mostly
northeasterly, will prevail throughout the day, possibly shifting
southerly with the afternoon sea breeze. Another round of patchy
fog/CIGs may develop overnight into the early morning hours of
Tuesday.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Fair weather continues as surface high pressure centered over the
northwestern Gulf remains strong. Light winds and low seas will
prevail through most of the period. Light offshore winds will be
possible at times today and Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary
meanders over the region. However, onshore flow should prevail
through most of the week. A few showers or storms will be possible
at times, but minimal impacts are expected.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 75 94 76 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 86 79 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
FXUS64 KHGX 161117
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
617 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
A non-tropical low off the Southeastern coastline is progged to
pull in the discarded remnants of Francine currently over the
Lower Mississippi Valley. This should allow the upper ridge over
Texas shift eastward. In spite of the ridge`s greater influence,
northerly low-level flow and cooler 850mb temperatures should
bring slighter cooler highs. By in large, highs will in the upper
80s to upper 90s across the area, possibly a degree or so cooler
compared to Sunday. Subsidence and lacking upper level support
should keep rain chances slim. Tuesday will feature equally benign
weather as well, with lows largely in the 70s.
03
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through Sunday)
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Mostly dry with moderate to major heat risk are the main weather
story in the long term. Ridging aloft remains strong with the axis
extending to our west across the central and southern Plains. At
the surface, high pressure to our east will continue to bring warm
and humid southerly flow into the region. As we head into the
weekend, 500 mb heights increase even more (around 588-591 dm),
suggesting more subsidence/drier conditions. Even with a dry layer
at mid to upper levels, there are still some low level moisture,
especially near the coast. Therefore, cannot rule out an isolated
shower/storm or two developing along the sea breeze, mainly in
the afternoon/early evening. Previous forecast had chances of
rain/storm next Saturday and Sunday. However, with the center of
the ridge situated over the region; any activity that attempt to
develop will need to overcome the cap and any dry air entrainment.
Have leaned towards a drier forecast with PoPs only around 15
percent.
Temperature-wise, it will continue to be hot with highs mainly in
the mid 90s. This is 5 to 10 degrees above normal. Peak heat
index values will generally be into the 105 to 107 degF range.
Thursday is shaping up to be the warmest day of the week with heat
indices at or above advisory criteria across our southwestern
counties. Heat headlines will be possible.
JM
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 611 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Mix of MVFR to LIFR Fog/CIGS should clear up later this morning
after sunrise. VFR conditions and light winds, mostly
northeasterly, will prevail throughout the day, possibly shifting
southerly with the afternoon sea breeze. Another round of patchy
fog/CIGs may develop overnight into the early morning hours of
Tuesday.
03
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 228 AM CDT Mon Sep 16 2024
Fair weather continues as surface high pressure centered over the
northwestern Gulf remains strong. Light winds and low seas will
prevail through most of the period. Light offshore winds will be
possible at times today and Tuesday as a weak frontal boundary
meanders over the region. However, onshore flow should prevail
through most of the week. A few showers or storms will be possible
at times, but minimal impacts are expected.
JM
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 72 95 73 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 75 94 76 / 10 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 87 77 86 79 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...03
LONG TERM....JM
AVIATION...03
MARINE...JM
So boring - the forecast. More heat this week.
We had a couple of tenths of rain last evening, it could have been more but the storms were starting to outflow. That might buy me just 2-3 days on the sprinklers. I HATE watering in September. Brown patch season is just 4 weeks away.
We had a couple of tenths of rain last evening, it could have been more but the storms were starting to outflow. That might buy me just 2-3 days on the sprinklers. I HATE watering in September. Brown patch season is just 4 weeks away.
At least you got something. The radar just teased me again. Barely over an inch here since Beryl.DoctorMu wrote: ↑Mon Sep 16, 2024 4:13 pm So boring - the forecast. More heat this week.
We had a couple of tenths of rain last evening, it could have been more but the storms were starting to outflow. That might buy me just 2-3 days on the sprinklers. I HATE watering in September. Brown patch season is just 4 weeks away.
Looks like the beginning of another long term dry pattern. Next summer is going to suck so bad….
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
978
FXUS64 KHGX 170720
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
220 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Mid-upper ridging and associated subsidence should keep rain chances
at a minimum. Though chances won`t exactly be zero around the seabreeze
and baybreeze in the late afternoon or early evening hours, any
shra/tstms should be quite isolated. In regards to temps...look
for readings closer to July/August type normals versus those typically
seen in mid September. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Ridging over Texas with a trough over the Eastern Sea Board and an
upper level low over the Desert Southwest will keep an omega block
pattern in place through the end of the week. This puts 500mb
heights around 590-592 dam over SE Texas, with 850mb temperatures
ranging between 18-22C. Hot, above normal conditions should continue
continue through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s.
Rain chances will be slim, though isolated, diurnally driven showers
over the coast and Gulf waters cannot be ruled out during this
period.
Heading into the weekend, the upper level low push towards the
northeast, flattening the Texas Ridge. PWs inland dip down to 1.0-
1.3" over the weekend as the center of the midlevel ridge shifts
over South Texas. Subsidence aloft increases, resulting in rather
robust capping between 800-700mb and thus suppressing rain chances
for inland areas. However, isolated coastal showers underneath this
cap remain possible, with rain chances progged increase into the
upcoming week. A 1-3C drop in 850mb temperatures should bring highs
down, closer to near-normal conditions, by early next week. This
means highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows largely in the
70s.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
VFR conditions will mostly prevail with light winds. Like the past
couple days, can`t rule out some short lasting MVFR ceilings
and/or patchy fog in the 4am-9am time frame. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 76 95 77 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 89 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 170720
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
220 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Mid-upper ridging and associated subsidence should keep rain chances
at a minimum. Though chances won`t exactly be zero around the seabreeze
and baybreeze in the late afternoon or early evening hours, any
shra/tstms should be quite isolated. In regards to temps...look
for readings closer to July/August type normals versus those typically
seen in mid September. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Ridging over Texas with a trough over the Eastern Sea Board and an
upper level low over the Desert Southwest will keep an omega block
pattern in place through the end of the week. This puts 500mb
heights around 590-592 dam over SE Texas, with 850mb temperatures
ranging between 18-22C. Hot, above normal conditions should continue
continue through Friday, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s.
Rain chances will be slim, though isolated, diurnally driven showers
over the coast and Gulf waters cannot be ruled out during this
period.
Heading into the weekend, the upper level low push towards the
northeast, flattening the Texas Ridge. PWs inland dip down to 1.0-
1.3" over the weekend as the center of the midlevel ridge shifts
over South Texas. Subsidence aloft increases, resulting in rather
robust capping between 800-700mb and thus suppressing rain chances
for inland areas. However, isolated coastal showers underneath this
cap remain possible, with rain chances progged increase into the
upcoming week. A 1-3C drop in 850mb temperatures should bring highs
down, closer to near-normal conditions, by early next week. This
means highs in the upper 80s to lower 90s with lows largely in the
70s.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
VFR conditions will mostly prevail with light winds. Like the past
couple days, can`t rule out some short lasting MVFR ceilings
and/or patchy fog in the 4am-9am time frame. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Tue Sep 17 2024
Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 95 74 97 74 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 76 95 77 / 10 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 89 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
100°F days Thursday and Friday. It's awfully late for a Big Suck revival. Some drier and cooler air next week is on tap.
Rain?
Rain?
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 I dont agree, models have a couple of fronts sweeping across the state over the next 10-12 days, maybe 5-10 below normal so from mid 90’s to mid to low 80’s and a humidity stop, but a real fall front probably wont come around until the beginning of October, maybe some rain with the fronts, but i do see some shots of cooler air coming over the next 10-14 days
Don’t hold your breath. I see mid 90’s for the next 10 days.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Tue Sep 17, 2024 5:45 pm Cpv17 I dont agree, models have a couple of fronts sweeping across the state over the next 10-12 days, maybe 5-10 below normal so from mid 90’s to mid to low 80’s and a humidity stop, but a real fall front probably wont come around until the beginning of October, maybe some rain with the fronts, but i do see some shots of cooler air coming over the next 10-14 days
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Cpv17 we will see, im more bullish when it comes to a pattern change lol
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
833
FXUS64 KHGX 180747
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
Forecast of persistence looks tough to beat as wx pattern remains
status quo. Mid-upper riding should keep the above normal temperatures
going and chances of rain quite low. Overnight lows in the 70s
and daytime highs in the 90s. SREF is somewhat bullish depicting
the potential for some patchy fog late Wed night & early Thurs
morning. That`s about all the excitement I can draw up for the
short term. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
Omega blocking aloft will keep ridging in place over Texas through
the end of the week. This puts 500mb heights around 590-592 dam over
SE Texas, with 850mb temperatures ranging between 17-21C. Hot, above
normal conditions should continue Friday into portions of the
weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Rain chances will
be slim, though isolated, diurnally driven showers over the coast
and Gulf waters cannot be ruled out during this period.
An upper level low over the Four corners is progged to push towards
the northeast this weekend, flattening the upper ridge and shifting
it`s center over SE Texas. PWs see a brief, noticeable drop of 1.0-
1.4" with increased subsidence bringing robust capping between 800-
700mb. This should still suppress rain chances for inland areas,
though isolated coastal showers underneath this cap remain possible,
with PoPs gradually increasing into the upcoming week. A slight drop
in 850mb temperatures and decreasing thickness 1000-500mb should
ease surface temperatures down for next week. This means highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows largely in the 70s. The Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area could see lows drop below the 70 degree mark.
Global deterministic models suggest that ridging aloft will break
down on Monday/Tuesday. On the other hand, Grand Ensemble clusters
lean towards a zonal flow regime over SE Texas during this period.
In either case, both seem to allude to a more active weather pattern
than the current status quo.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
VFR conditions and light winds should mainly persist. Exception
might be between 9-14z Thurs morning when some terminals, probably
non-metro, will see a bit of patchy fog and potential lower
ceilings in the vicinity. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 80 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 180747
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
Forecast of persistence looks tough to beat as wx pattern remains
status quo. Mid-upper riding should keep the above normal temperatures
going and chances of rain quite low. Overnight lows in the 70s
and daytime highs in the 90s. SREF is somewhat bullish depicting
the potential for some patchy fog late Wed night & early Thurs
morning. That`s about all the excitement I can draw up for the
short term. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
Omega blocking aloft will keep ridging in place over Texas through
the end of the week. This puts 500mb heights around 590-592 dam over
SE Texas, with 850mb temperatures ranging between 17-21C. Hot, above
normal conditions should continue Friday into portions of the
weekend, with highs in the upper 80s to upper 90s. Rain chances will
be slim, though isolated, diurnally driven showers over the coast
and Gulf waters cannot be ruled out during this period.
An upper level low over the Four corners is progged to push towards
the northeast this weekend, flattening the upper ridge and shifting
it`s center over SE Texas. PWs see a brief, noticeable drop of 1.0-
1.4" with increased subsidence bringing robust capping between 800-
700mb. This should still suppress rain chances for inland areas,
though isolated coastal showers underneath this cap remain possible,
with PoPs gradually increasing into the upcoming week. A slight drop
in 850mb temperatures and decreasing thickness 1000-500mb should
ease surface temperatures down for next week. This means highs in
the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows largely in the 70s. The Brazos
Valley/Piney Woods area could see lows drop below the 70 degree mark.
Global deterministic models suggest that ridging aloft will break
down on Monday/Tuesday. On the other hand, Grand Ensemble clusters
lean towards a zonal flow regime over SE Texas during this period.
In either case, both seem to allude to a more active weather pattern
than the current status quo.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
VFR conditions and light winds should mainly persist. Exception
might be between 9-14z Thurs morning when some terminals, probably
non-metro, will see a bit of patchy fog and potential lower
ceilings in the vicinity. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 247 AM CDT Wed Sep 18 2024
Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 95 76 95 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 90 80 90 80 / 10 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
Euro looks like se texas on this run, that being said its the weakest model in terms of development so its a big outlier right now
The water off of Korea, Japan, and Alaska are quite warm.
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/products/ocean/sst/anomaly/
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
65
FXUS64 KHGX 190730
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Surface ridging across the northern Gulf Coast and expansive mid-
upper ridging aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and
meager, if any, rain chances. Could see some late night & early
morning clouds/patchy fog...but otherwise mclr to pcldy skies with
highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
An upper level low over the Four corners is progged to push towards
the northeast this weekend, flattening the upper ridge and shifting
it`s center over SE Texas on Saturday. 500mb heights still sit
around 590-592 dam, remaining potent enough to keep highs in the
upper 80s to upper 90s. Subsidence is progged to bring robust
capping between 800-700mb, suppressing rain chances for inland
areas over the weekend. Isolated coastal showers underneath this
cap will still be possible.
The ridge gradually breaks down heading into need week, with 850mb
temperatures and 500mb heights gradually declining. This should ease
surface temperatures down, closer to near-normal conditions. Look
for highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows largely in the 70s.
The Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area may see lows drop below the 70
degree mark. Global models suggest that an another upper level
trough will dig into the Plains on Tuesday/Wednesday, though
uncertainty on specifics still remain. Regardless, global
ensembles still assert a transition towards a zonal flow regime at
least, which should bring higher rain chances through Wednesday.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Temp dewpoint spread is narrowing across parts of the area and
suspect we`ll see some patchy fog development commence in the not
too distant future...moreso outside the primary metro airports.
Say some intermittent 800-1500ft ceilings and 3-6nm vsbys
yesterday morning and expect we might see some scattered about
early this morning and again early Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds should prevail for the vast majority of
time. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 76 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 89 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
FXUS64 KHGX 190730
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday Night)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Surface ridging across the northern Gulf Coast and expansive mid-
upper ridging aloft will maintain above normal temperatures and
meager, if any, rain chances. Could see some late night & early
morning clouds/patchy fog...but otherwise mclr to pcldy skies with
highs in the 90s and lows in the 70s. 47
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Saturday through Wednesday)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
An upper level low over the Four corners is progged to push towards
the northeast this weekend, flattening the upper ridge and shifting
it`s center over SE Texas on Saturday. 500mb heights still sit
around 590-592 dam, remaining potent enough to keep highs in the
upper 80s to upper 90s. Subsidence is progged to bring robust
capping between 800-700mb, suppressing rain chances for inland
areas over the weekend. Isolated coastal showers underneath this
cap will still be possible.
The ridge gradually breaks down heading into need week, with 850mb
temperatures and 500mb heights gradually declining. This should ease
surface temperatures down, closer to near-normal conditions. Look
for highs in the upper 80s to mid 90s and lows largely in the 70s.
The Brazos Valley/Piney Woods area may see lows drop below the 70
degree mark. Global models suggest that an another upper level
trough will dig into the Plains on Tuesday/Wednesday, though
uncertainty on specifics still remain. Regardless, global
ensembles still assert a transition towards a zonal flow regime at
least, which should bring higher rain chances through Wednesday.
03
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Temp dewpoint spread is narrowing across parts of the area and
suspect we`ll see some patchy fog development commence in the not
too distant future...moreso outside the primary metro airports.
Say some intermittent 800-1500ft ceilings and 3-6nm vsbys
yesterday morning and expect we might see some scattered about
early this morning and again early Friday morning. Otherwise, VFR
conditions and light winds should prevail for the vast majority of
time. 47
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 230 AM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Light onshore winds and low seas of 1 to 3 feet can be expected over
the next several days. Isolated showers and storms will be possible
over the Gulf waters, especially this weekend and early next week.
03
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 98 76 98 74 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 76 96 76 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 89 80 89 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
Models are coalescing behind a substantive cool front coming through by next weekend. Fingers crossed.
We’re almost done, y’all.
We’re almost done, y’all.
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 971
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
I am starting to think we may be setting up for the la Nina/ -pdo induced drought going into next year that many have anticipated for the Texas region. It is unfortunate for areas to the west that never fully recovered with low lakes and rivers.
Next summer could be absolutely brutal.TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 8:58 am I am starting to think we may be setting up for the la Nina/ -pdo induced drought going into next year that many have anticipated for the Texas region. It is unfortunate for areas to the west that never fully recovered with low lakes and rivers.
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tireman4
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.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Light SSE winds with SCT mid clouds are expected this afternoon.
A few light showers will also be possible near the coastal
terminals through late this afternoon. Tonight, periods of MVFR to
IFR conditions due to fog are possible through 13-15Z Friday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF
cycle.
JM
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 107 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Light SSE winds with SCT mid clouds are expected this afternoon.
A few light showers will also be possible near the coastal
terminals through late this afternoon. Tonight, periods of MVFR to
IFR conditions due to fog are possible through 13-15Z Friday.
Otherwise, VFR conditions are expected through most of this TAF
cycle.
JM
Please, God, noCpv17 wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 12:24 pmNext summer could be absolutely brutal.TexasBreeze wrote: ↑Thu Sep 19, 2024 8:58 am I am starting to think we may be setting up for the la Nina/ -pdo induced drought going into next year that many have anticipated for the Texas region. It is unfortunate for areas to the west that never fully recovered with low lakes and rivers.
Upper 90s. No wind. No rain. Mid to late September. This is getting old fast.
I've been able to verify this in CLL climate. One of the main CC effects has been a warmer fall...consistent with my observations. Drier in September and early October as well.
Ugh.
I've been able to verify this in CLL climate. One of the main CC effects has been a warmer fall...consistent with my observations. Drier in September and early October as well.
Ugh.