September 2024
Despite the rain and fortunately Francine did little damage, the weather in LA was preferable.
Some good news. The major global models and Ensembles are in agreement that the upper level ridge will die away around 9/25. I'll be happy to kick dirt on its grave.
We should see about having a get-together some time (few beers or so) each Fall to celebrate end of hurricane season and the first cool front.
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
DoctorMu yup, ensembles are slowly trending near normal - cooler conditions toward the first week of october , this is the heat ridges last stand, then its audios for good!
The end may have a bang to it. The models are converging on a LaTex or northern Gulf solution for a TS in about a week.
It's all about timing as the ridge, FROPA, TS do their dance.
It's all about timing as the ridge, FROPA, TS do their dance.
- Attachments
-
- gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_33.png (179.05 KiB) Viewed 2254 times
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
826
FXUS64 KHGX 201729
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Upper level ridging will continue, keeping calm and warmer than
normal weather over SE Texas. At the surface, light to moderate
onshore winds will continue drawing in moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico, resulting in hot and humid conditions through the short-term
period. Highs today and Saturday will be in the 90s inland and in
the 80s along the coast. The combination of hot temperatures and
increased humidity will result in heat indices in the 100-107 degree
range. Continue to practice heat safety, and remember to look before
you lock! A few light showers may be possible along the sea breeze
Friday afternoon.
Nighttime conditions will be mild and muggy as lows dip into the 70s
area wide. Clear skies and light winds coupled with low-level
moisture will result in areas of fog, with locally dense fog
possible this morning.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Hot and humid weather will continue on Sunday as the upper-level
ridge remains centered over the Western Gulf Coast. Afternoon high
temperatures will again be in the low to mid 90s along and north of
the US-59 corridor, and then mid to upper 80s along the coast with
heat indices rising into the upper 90s and into the triple digits
for much of the area. The ridge of high pressure will continue to
limit any afternoon shower or thunderstorm development. This high
pressure will gradually move further east into the Gulf through the
week, and possibly weaken - but guidance is rather uncertain on the
future strength of this ridge.
With the weakening subsidence aloft, we will see a very gradual
lowering of temperatures through the week - but still above normal.
High temperatures on Monday will be about 1-2 degrees cooler than
Sunday, then dropping another 1-2 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday
with much of the area getting high temperatures in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Not much of a cool down, but its something. The overnight
temperatures will still continue to be much above normal with lows
in the low to mid 70s for much of the area, and then mid to upper
70s in the Houston Metro and along the coast. The lower heights
aloft will also allow for the return of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to develop, especially along the seabreeze. So there
is a slight chance to a chance of rainfall each afternoon generally
along and south of I-45.
NHC continues to monitor a tropical wave in the Caribbean and gives
it a Medium, 40%, chance of development within the next 7 days as it
approaches the Yucatan. There is still much uncertainty with this
system, which hasn`t even formed yet, and the upper level pattern as
we go into the end of next week. Main takeaway is just continue to
follow the official forecasts from the NHC through the next several
days.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Benign aviation conditions as high pressure remains in control.
FEW to SCT mid clouds and light SSE winds will prevail this
afternoon and evening. Another window of MVFR to IFR conditions
due to low ceilings or fog will be possible late tonight into
early Saturday morning. However, impacts and/or coverage do not
look as aggressive as previous mornings. Having said that, have
visibility only dropping between 4SM to 6SM. Will continue to
monitor trends and adjust accordingly. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through most of the period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow (5-10kt during the day,
then 10-15kt during the overnight and early morning hours) and low
seas (1-3ft) will continue through the weekend and into next week.
There will be increased chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters beginning Sunday night and
continue through at least midweek next week.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 74 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 87 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 201729
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
1229 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 331 AM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Upper level ridging will continue, keeping calm and warmer than
normal weather over SE Texas. At the surface, light to moderate
onshore winds will continue drawing in moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico, resulting in hot and humid conditions through the short-term
period. Highs today and Saturday will be in the 90s inland and in
the 80s along the coast. The combination of hot temperatures and
increased humidity will result in heat indices in the 100-107 degree
range. Continue to practice heat safety, and remember to look before
you lock! A few light showers may be possible along the sea breeze
Friday afternoon.
Nighttime conditions will be mild and muggy as lows dip into the 70s
area wide. Clear skies and light winds coupled with low-level
moisture will result in areas of fog, with locally dense fog
possible this morning.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Hot and humid weather will continue on Sunday as the upper-level
ridge remains centered over the Western Gulf Coast. Afternoon high
temperatures will again be in the low to mid 90s along and north of
the US-59 corridor, and then mid to upper 80s along the coast with
heat indices rising into the upper 90s and into the triple digits
for much of the area. The ridge of high pressure will continue to
limit any afternoon shower or thunderstorm development. This high
pressure will gradually move further east into the Gulf through the
week, and possibly weaken - but guidance is rather uncertain on the
future strength of this ridge.
With the weakening subsidence aloft, we will see a very gradual
lowering of temperatures through the week - but still above normal.
High temperatures on Monday will be about 1-2 degrees cooler than
Sunday, then dropping another 1-2 degrees by Wednesday and Thursday
with much of the area getting high temperatures in the upper 80s to
low 90s. Not much of a cool down, but its something. The overnight
temperatures will still continue to be much above normal with lows
in the low to mid 70s for much of the area, and then mid to upper
70s in the Houston Metro and along the coast. The lower heights
aloft will also allow for the return of afternoon showers and
thunderstorms to develop, especially along the seabreeze. So there
is a slight chance to a chance of rainfall each afternoon generally
along and south of I-45.
NHC continues to monitor a tropical wave in the Caribbean and gives
it a Medium, 40%, chance of development within the next 7 days as it
approaches the Yucatan. There is still much uncertainty with this
system, which hasn`t even formed yet, and the upper level pattern as
we go into the end of next week. Main takeaway is just continue to
follow the official forecasts from the NHC through the next several
days.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Benign aviation conditions as high pressure remains in control.
FEW to SCT mid clouds and light SSE winds will prevail this
afternoon and evening. Another window of MVFR to IFR conditions
due to low ceilings or fog will be possible late tonight into
early Saturday morning. However, impacts and/or coverage do not
look as aggressive as previous mornings. Having said that, have
visibility only dropping between 4SM to 6SM. Will continue to
monitor trends and adjust accordingly. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through most of the period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1136 PM CDT Thu Sep 19 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow (5-10kt during the day,
then 10-15kt during the overnight and early morning hours) and low
seas (1-3ft) will continue through the weekend and into next week.
There will be increased chances of scattered showers and
thunderstorms over the coastal waters beginning Sunday night and
continue through at least midweek next week.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 97 74 95 71 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 96 76 93 75 / 0 0 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 80 87 80 / 0 0 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Fowler
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
030
FXUS64 KHGX 201955
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Conditions remain on track, so little changes have been made to the
forecast. Ridging aloft and at the surface continue to control the
weather pattern across the region, resulting in hot and humid
conditions. Low-level moisture continues to surge inland, that
combined with some sfc convergence is resulting to isolated showers
over the coastal waters and along the Matagorda Island. These
showers should gradually taper off by sunset. Expect another mild
and muggy night with patchy fog, dense at times, developing through
early morning.
Similar weather conditions to today can be expected for Saturday as
high pressure remains over us. Highs will climb into the low to mid
90s with overnight lows mainly in the upper 70s.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 7:44am CDT on Sunday morning,
which means that we`ll have finally reached Astronomical Fall and
the temperatures will respond in kind...right?...RIGHT?! If only
things worked that way...we`ll still be dealing with the effects
of second summer as high temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s
into midweek. As we head towards midweek, the ridge aloft gets
nudged eastward by an approaching upper level trough with an
embedded cutoff low. The exact path and timing of this upper level
low remains uncertain, but there is generally consensus on
eastward movement through the Central Plains towards or after
midweek. As it slides past the Rockies, it`ll generate surface low
pressure in the Southern Plains through lee cyclogenesis. This
surface low will have a surface cold front associated with it that
is currently expected to push through Southeast Texas in the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. This`ll be a fairly weak front, but
should be enough to usher in some drier air.
Until then though, plenty of low-level moisture remains in place for
the daily chances of afternoon showers/storms along the seabreeze to
continue. While there is general consensus in a downward trend in
temperatures towards the end of the long term period, it does come
with quite a bit of uncertainty. We`re looking at about a 6-8F
difference between the upper and lower quartiles of the NBM ensemble
distribution, which means there are some members that don`t bring
the cold front through. It`ll definitely be worth it to monitor
forecast trends for signs pointing clearly one way or the other.
We`re slightly hopeful that we can bring an end to second summer
within the first week of Astronomical Fall! *fingers and toes
crossed*
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Benign aviation conditions as high pressure remains in control.
FEW to SCT mid clouds and light SSE winds will prevail this
afternoon and evening. Another window of MVFR to IFR conditions
due to low ceilings or fog will be possible late tonight into
early Saturday morning. However, impacts and/or coverage do not
look as aggressive as previous mornings. Having said that, have
visibility only dropping between 4SM to 6SM. Will continue to
monitor trends and adjust accordingly. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through most of the period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will
persist into early next week. After midweek, winds and seas are
expected to gradually climb towards caution flag territory. Daily
chances for showers and storms will continue throughout the
forecast period with chances increasing after the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico as an area
of low pressure could develop by the early to middle part of next
week. Gradual development of this system is possible and could
result in the development of a tropical depression by late next
week as it moves slowly northward or northwestward into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC currently has a 50% (medium)
probability of formation over the next 7 days. This system has not
yet developed, so it is still far too early to determine it`s
track, intensity, or any specific impacts from it. Don`t put too
much stock into any single deterministic model runs. Please
continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the NHC
at www.hurricanes.gov.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 94 75 93 / 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 88 80 87 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 201955
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Saturday Night)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Conditions remain on track, so little changes have been made to the
forecast. Ridging aloft and at the surface continue to control the
weather pattern across the region, resulting in hot and humid
conditions. Low-level moisture continues to surge inland, that
combined with some sfc convergence is resulting to isolated showers
over the coastal waters and along the Matagorda Island. These
showers should gradually taper off by sunset. Expect another mild
and muggy night with patchy fog, dense at times, developing through
early morning.
Similar weather conditions to today can be expected for Saturday as
high pressure remains over us. Highs will climb into the low to mid
90s with overnight lows mainly in the upper 70s.
JM
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through next Thursday)
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
The Autumnal Equinox occurs at 7:44am CDT on Sunday morning,
which means that we`ll have finally reached Astronomical Fall and
the temperatures will respond in kind...right?...RIGHT?! If only
things worked that way...we`ll still be dealing with the effects
of second summer as high temperatures remain in the low to mid 90s
into midweek. As we head towards midweek, the ridge aloft gets
nudged eastward by an approaching upper level trough with an
embedded cutoff low. The exact path and timing of this upper level
low remains uncertain, but there is generally consensus on
eastward movement through the Central Plains towards or after
midweek. As it slides past the Rockies, it`ll generate surface low
pressure in the Southern Plains through lee cyclogenesis. This
surface low will have a surface cold front associated with it that
is currently expected to push through Southeast Texas in the
Wednesday/Thursday timeframe. This`ll be a fairly weak front, but
should be enough to usher in some drier air.
Until then though, plenty of low-level moisture remains in place for
the daily chances of afternoon showers/storms along the seabreeze to
continue. While there is general consensus in a downward trend in
temperatures towards the end of the long term period, it does come
with quite a bit of uncertainty. We`re looking at about a 6-8F
difference between the upper and lower quartiles of the NBM ensemble
distribution, which means there are some members that don`t bring
the cold front through. It`ll definitely be worth it to monitor
forecast trends for signs pointing clearly one way or the other.
We`re slightly hopeful that we can bring an end to second summer
within the first week of Astronomical Fall! *fingers and toes
crossed*
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1223 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Benign aviation conditions as high pressure remains in control.
FEW to SCT mid clouds and light SSE winds will prevail this
afternoon and evening. Another window of MVFR to IFR conditions
due to low ceilings or fog will be possible late tonight into
early Saturday morning. However, impacts and/or coverage do not
look as aggressive as previous mornings. Having said that, have
visibility only dropping between 4SM to 6SM. Will continue to
monitor trends and adjust accordingly. Otherwise, VFR conditions
are expected through most of the period.
JM
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will
persist into early next week. After midweek, winds and seas are
expected to gradually climb towards caution flag territory. Daily
chances for showers and storms will continue throughout the
forecast period with chances increasing after the weekend.
Batiste
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 255 PM CDT Fri Sep 20 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) continues to monitor the
Northwestern Caribbean Sea and southern Gulf of Mexico as an area
of low pressure could develop by the early to middle part of next
week. Gradual development of this system is possible and could
result in the development of a tropical depression by late next
week as it moves slowly northward or northwestward into the
southern Gulf of Mexico. The NHC currently has a 50% (medium)
probability of formation over the next 7 days. This system has not
yet developed, so it is still far too early to determine it`s
track, intensity, or any specific impacts from it. Don`t put too
much stock into any single deterministic model runs. Please
continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the NHC
at www.hurricanes.gov.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 74 95 72 94 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 76 94 75 93 / 0 10 0 10
Galveston (GLS) 80 88 80 87 / 0 0 10 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...JM
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...JM
MARINE...Batiste
When are we gonna get some freakin rain? I have not had a decent rain shower since Beryl.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
djmike you might be waiting a couple of weeks , not really a sign for any meaningful rainfall around se texas anytime soon, and its only going to get harder to get more beneficial rains around here with la nina settling in
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
GFS , CMC and the Euro are all starting to agree on our first pretty legit fall front coming down in the 8-10 day range, models have the front pushing through north texas at the end of their runs, ensembles arent their just yet, however even the ensembles only have about 84-88 degrees over the next few weeks for highs, with the heat ridge meeting its demise, at the worst mid 80’s for highs after this week seems like a good bet, stepping stones and little baby steps, but things are heading in the right direction
First day of fall.
Yeah.
Last year was better than recent Falls...but overall Falls have gotten significantly worse in SETX.
Back in the 1990s, September would bring rain, lows in the upper 60s by now in College Station. A bit of a refreshing breeze. A drop in the DP.
Bad sports day. $100M man Hader with the big choke job and the Texans OL is an embarrassment.
-
TexasBreeze
- Posts: 971
- Joined: Sun Sep 26, 2010 4:46 pm
- Location: NW Houston, TX
- Contact:
Yes and the mariners lost too. Oklahoma lost also so not all bad.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
They all had a bad day ( Hadar, Abreu). It happens..Arrighetti looked good. Offense did too. Astros will be fine. Liberty again looked shaky but won it. Looks like the high will flatten out before the front
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
GFS/ Euro/ ICON agree on a fall front next weekend, GEFS is trending cooler
There's been brief weak semi discreet supercells in the post frontal environment up here today.Nothing strong but kinda cool to see happening behind the front.
There's a mid-week front that will drag the next TS toward Gatorland. Middling chances of rain Tuesday - Wednesday 30-50% in SETX.
NOAA isn't seeing the second front yet, but DPs will drop after the midweek FROPA.
NOAA isn't seeing the second front yet, but DPs will drop after the midweek FROPA.