Preach!
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
709 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday Night)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Hmm...the calendar says that it`s the first day of Fall, but when
I walk outside it still feels all summer-like. Why is it hot and
humid in Fall and where`s my FROPA?! The temperatures will
eventually simmer down a bit later this week due to a FROPA, but
that`s in the long term period. Here in the short term, we`re
still on the tail-end of influence from an upper level ridge.
That`s combined with onshore flow pulling in low-level moisture
and increased humidity from over the Gulf creating the hot and
humid conditions we`re all used to (and sick of at this point).
The main ridge axis will continue sliding off to the east as an
upper level trough drifts eastward from the Four Corners region
over to the Central Plains. This upper level trough has already
spurred the development of surface low pressure in W/NW Texas,
and as this low transitions northeastward it will drag a cold
front towards SE Texas. Now it won`t push through in the short
term forecast window though...so expect high temperatures in the
low to mid 90s both today and Monday.
As the front gets closer on Monday, it will lead to a surge in PW
values (1.6-2.0") as moisture converges along the frontal
boundary. As a result, we could see isolated to scattered showers
as early as Monday morning along the coast. Rain chances extend
further inland in the afternoon, but the higher end of the chances
generally remain near and south of I-10. Another impact from the
increase in low level moisture is patchy fog during the
overnight/early morning hours mainly for areas west of the I-45
corridor. Nighttime temperatures will remain above normal both
tonight and Monday night with lows in the low to mid 70s inland
and upper 70s closer to the coast. For portions of the Brazos
Valley, this does depend a bit on where the frontal boundary
stalls out at as some deterministic guidance has the front ever so
partially into SE Texas on late Monday night.
Batiste
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through next Saturday)
Issued at 250 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Will see some active weather regionally and some changes locally
during the long term period. Locally, onshore flow along with heat
and humidity will continue through Monday...but an approaching
cold front along with a developing low pressure system over the NW
Carribean, SW Gulf (more on this later) will lead to winds
backing from SE to NE...to finally north as the cold front pushes
through late Wednesday or Thursday. This southward push of
cooler...drier air is aided by a tropical cyclone tracking
northward across the Eastern Gulf. Bottom line...locally we expect
continued hot and humid conditions with isolated rain showers
over the next few days...then a higher chance of showers and
thunderstorms with the approach and passage of a cold front from
Tuesday until Thursday morning. This will be followed by cooler
and much less humid conditions for the Thursday night through much
of the weekend.
Looking more regionally...all eyes will be on a developing area of
low pressure over the NW Carribean...which will likely develop into
a tropical depression or tropical storm over the next 2 or 3 days.
Details of track and speed are uncertain but should generally move
into the Gulf of Mexico...possibly via the Yucatan Channel... late
Tuesday or Wednesday and then track fairly quickly northward toward
the northeastern Gulf Coast. Track and speed remain uncertain but
potential to reach the Florida Panhandle or West Coast of Florida as
a hurricane as early as Thursday. At this point should have minimal
impact on the Texas coast other than an elevated rip current risk,
some elevated surf from long period swells being generated by the
hurricane...and some elevated seas in the marine area. Its doubtful
we`ll have any coastal flood concerns given offshore flow despite
some degree of wave runup...setup.
Reilly
&&
September 2024
The same front that just moved through here today, will briefly stall in central Texas. Before moving through SE Texas later this week. As a cutoff low reinforces the front mid week and helps to push it off the coast.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
177
FXUS64 KHGX 231135
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
As the front approaches the CWA today from the west, low-level
onshore flow will continue to pull in moisture, resulting in PW
values increasing to around 1.6-2.0". As moisture converges along
the frontal boundary, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop. Rain chances will begin along the coast
this morning and will extend further inland as the day progresses.
The majority of activity is expected to remain south of I-10.
In addition to precipitation, low-level moisture combined with calm
winds will allow for the development of patchy fog for portions of
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area (mainly W of I-45) overnight
into Tuesday morning.
Fog development will depend on where the aforementioned frontal
boundary stalls out. Guidance continues to suggest stalling could
occur in the NE corner of SE Texas.
Similar weather pattern is in store for Tuesday as a mid-upper level
trough continues eastward, and interacts with an ample amount of
moisture still in place. Highest chance of rain will remain south of
I-10 and west of I-45.
Highs for today and Tuesday will be in the 90s for much of the area.
Locations along the coast and in the Piney Woods should see highs in
the upper 80s. Lows for tonight and Tuesday night will be in the
70s. Some locations in the Piney Woods may dip into the upper 60s
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Our pattern finally begins to change on Wednesday following a long
stretch of hot-and-humid weather as high pressure dominated over
Texas. An upper level trough digging down from the Northern Plains
will be entering the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, where it
will become a cutoff low and stall. PVA and moisture convergence
over coastal Texas will lead to increased showers and thunderstorms
activity on Wednesday (not just sea breeze activity), along with
increased cloud cover. The scattered showers and clouds will help
moderate daytime temperatures a bit, but WAA ahead of an approaching
cold front associated with the upper level low will lead to high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the area. The
Piney Woods region may see the highest coverage of the afternoon
showers, so that are may not rise past the mid 80s. This
aforementioned cold front is expected to move through late Wednesday
into Thursday morning ushering in cooler, drier weather for Thursday.
Temperatures Wednesday night will be driven by the exact timing of
the FROPA, but we can expect low down into the mid to upper 60s for
much of the area, and then low 70s for the Houston Metro and along
the coast. Thursday is looking rather pleasant for our area with low
humidity and high temperatures generally in the mid 80s.
The upper level pattern gets a bit messy by the end of the week.
That closed low that stalls over the Mississippi Valley ends up
retrograding back westward Friday and into the weekend. This is due
to a tropical system (currently Invest 97L in the western Caribbean,
but likely a named tropical system by midweek) moving through the
eastern Gulf of Mexico effectively blocking the movement of the
upper level low. So, as this system moves back westward, so does the
moisture associated with it. The wrap around moisture may bring
scattered showers and storms to our area Friday into the weekend -
but confidence is not exactly high as it will be determined where
exactly the upper level low retrogrades to and how it interacts with
the tropical system. That upper level low ends up sticking around
through much of the weekend before finally moving off east late
Sunday into Monday. There will be a gradual increase in temperatures
Friday and through the weekend with highs back into the low to even
mid 90s by Sunday.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
LIFR VSBYs and CIGs ongoing at LBX this morning. All other sites
at VFR. Fog may be possible over the next couple of hours at CXO.
All sites expected to be at VFR by late morning. SE winds around
10 kts expected this morning. SCT showers will develop along the
coast this morning and expand inland this afternoon. Have
continued with VCSH in the forecast; however, will need to monitor
for potential TSRA. Winds will become light and variable around
00Z
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow (5-10kt during the day,
then 10-15kt during the overnight and early morning hours) and low
seas (1-3ft) will continue through Tuesday. There will be increased
chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
coastal waters beginning through Tuesday as well. The winds
gradually back to the NE on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold
front, and there will also be increased coverage of the showers and
storms on Wednesday. This cold front is expected to move through the
coastal waters late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing moderate
to strong northerly winds through Thursday night. Seas will likely
increase to 4 to 6 feet due to the increase in winds. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed.
Mariners should be advised that the NHC continues to monitor an area
of low pressure in the western Caribbean for tropical development
over the next several days. This system will gradually move
northwards and then northeastwards through the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through the end of the week. Little to no local impacts are
expected, but may see increased swells and increased risk of
strong rip currents by the end of the week.
Fowler
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has now designated the area of
low pressure in the western Caribbean as Invest 97L. Gradual
development of this system is expected over the next few days with a
Medium (50%) chance of development into a named tropical cyclone
within 2 days, and a High (80%) chance within the next 7 days. It is
expected to generally move northward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through the end of the week, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the
forecast as conditions are favorable for development. Little to no
impacts are expected locally for SE Texas, but there will likely be
increased risk of strong rip currents by the second half of this
week. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates
from the NHC at www.hurricanes.gov.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 74 92 70 / 10 10 30 30
Houston (IAH) 93 76 93 75 / 20 10 50 30
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 76 / 20 10 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
FXUS64 KHGX 231135
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
635 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 339 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
As the front approaches the CWA today from the west, low-level
onshore flow will continue to pull in moisture, resulting in PW
values increasing to around 1.6-2.0". As moisture converges along
the frontal boundary, isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms will develop. Rain chances will begin along the coast
this morning and will extend further inland as the day progresses.
The majority of activity is expected to remain south of I-10.
In addition to precipitation, low-level moisture combined with calm
winds will allow for the development of patchy fog for portions of
the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods area (mainly W of I-45) overnight
into Tuesday morning.
Fog development will depend on where the aforementioned frontal
boundary stalls out. Guidance continues to suggest stalling could
occur in the NE corner of SE Texas.
Similar weather pattern is in store for Tuesday as a mid-upper level
trough continues eastward, and interacts with an ample amount of
moisture still in place. Highest chance of rain will remain south of
I-10 and west of I-45.
Highs for today and Tuesday will be in the 90s for much of the area.
Locations along the coast and in the Piney Woods should see highs in
the upper 80s. Lows for tonight and Tuesday night will be in the
70s. Some locations in the Piney Woods may dip into the upper 60s
Tuesday night into Wednesday morning.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Our pattern finally begins to change on Wednesday following a long
stretch of hot-and-humid weather as high pressure dominated over
Texas. An upper level trough digging down from the Northern Plains
will be entering the Lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday, where it
will become a cutoff low and stall. PVA and moisture convergence
over coastal Texas will lead to increased showers and thunderstorms
activity on Wednesday (not just sea breeze activity), along with
increased cloud cover. The scattered showers and clouds will help
moderate daytime temperatures a bit, but WAA ahead of an approaching
cold front associated with the upper level low will lead to high
temperatures in the upper 80s to low 90s for much of the area. The
Piney Woods region may see the highest coverage of the afternoon
showers, so that are may not rise past the mid 80s. This
aforementioned cold front is expected to move through late Wednesday
into Thursday morning ushering in cooler, drier weather for Thursday.
Temperatures Wednesday night will be driven by the exact timing of
the FROPA, but we can expect low down into the mid to upper 60s for
much of the area, and then low 70s for the Houston Metro and along
the coast. Thursday is looking rather pleasant for our area with low
humidity and high temperatures generally in the mid 80s.
The upper level pattern gets a bit messy by the end of the week.
That closed low that stalls over the Mississippi Valley ends up
retrograding back westward Friday and into the weekend. This is due
to a tropical system (currently Invest 97L in the western Caribbean,
but likely a named tropical system by midweek) moving through the
eastern Gulf of Mexico effectively blocking the movement of the
upper level low. So, as this system moves back westward, so does the
moisture associated with it. The wrap around moisture may bring
scattered showers and storms to our area Friday into the weekend -
but confidence is not exactly high as it will be determined where
exactly the upper level low retrogrades to and how it interacts with
the tropical system. That upper level low ends up sticking around
through much of the weekend before finally moving off east late
Sunday into Monday. There will be a gradual increase in temperatures
Friday and through the weekend with highs back into the low to even
mid 90s by Sunday.
Fowler
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 632 AM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
LIFR VSBYs and CIGs ongoing at LBX this morning. All other sites
at VFR. Fog may be possible over the next couple of hours at CXO.
All sites expected to be at VFR by late morning. SE winds around
10 kts expected this morning. SCT showers will develop along the
coast this morning and expand inland this afternoon. Have
continued with VCSH in the forecast; however, will need to monitor
for potential TSRA. Winds will become light and variable around
00Z
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow (5-10kt during the day,
then 10-15kt during the overnight and early morning hours) and low
seas (1-3ft) will continue through Tuesday. There will be increased
chances of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the
coastal waters beginning through Tuesday as well. The winds
gradually back to the NE on Wednesday ahead of an approaching cold
front, and there will also be increased coverage of the showers and
storms on Wednesday. This cold front is expected to move through the
coastal waters late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing moderate
to strong northerly winds through Thursday night. Seas will likely
increase to 4 to 6 feet due to the increase in winds. Small Craft
Advisories may be needed.
Mariners should be advised that the NHC continues to monitor an area
of low pressure in the western Caribbean for tropical development
over the next several days. This system will gradually move
northwards and then northeastwards through the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through the end of the week. Little to no local impacts are
expected, but may see increased swells and increased risk of
strong rip currents by the end of the week.
Fowler
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 1110 PM CDT Sun Sep 22 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) has now designated the area of
low pressure in the western Caribbean as Invest 97L. Gradual
development of this system is expected over the next few days with a
Medium (50%) chance of development into a named tropical cyclone
within 2 days, and a High (80%) chance within the next 7 days. It is
expected to generally move northward across the eastern Gulf of
Mexico through the end of the week, and interests along the
northern and northeastern Gulf of Mexico should closely monitor the
forecast as conditions are favorable for development. Little to no
impacts are expected locally for SE Texas, but there will likely be
increased risk of strong rip currents by the second half of this
week. Please continue to monitor the latest forecasts and updates
from the NHC at www.hurricanes.gov.
Fowler
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 93 74 92 70 / 10 10 30 30
Houston (IAH) 93 76 93 75 / 20 10 50 30
Galveston (GLS) 87 79 87 76 / 20 10 40 30
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....Fowler
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...Fowler
Well guys, I see no exciting weather on the horizon for the next 10 days, at least. Maybe longer than that. Be thankful for any rainfall we get over the next several months cuz I honestly expect us to go into a very bad drought over the next year or so.
Im just thankful we didn’t have an “explosive” hurricane season this year like many were predicting! I had my damage from Beryl already. Ill take hot weather for now. Some good rains would be nice though. Haven’t had that since Beryl either.
Mike
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Beaumont, TX
(IH-10 & College Street)
Rain forecasts are dimming again.
More desert-like conditions through early October. At least the DP will drop.
More desert-like conditions through early October. At least the DP will drop.
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
898
FXUS64 KHGX 232020
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Seeing scattered showers this afternoon across the southwestern
half of the area where deeper moisture exists. An outflow boundary
originating from shower activity off to the NW shifted sfc winds
to N/NE across northern areas, but this boundary has stalled. Tonight,
a cool front will sag southeast into the area and this boundary may
provide a focus for some shower development overnight. Some patchy fog
is possible near and southeast of the front late tonight and early
tomorrow with light winds in place. Tomorrow, the frontal boundary will
likely become quasi-stationary across the area and will help focus
scattered showers and storms, especially during the afternoon hours.
Max temps tomorrow will be near 90, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Will see min temps a little cooler on Tuesday night across northern
areas which will be behind the front. Drier air will arrive after the
period on Wednesday as the front pushes further southeast.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
What`s this yellow flag doing on the ground over here?! And is
that a referee?!
"False start to Fall...Southeast Texas...5 day penalty...repeat the
FROPA"
Ahh so it seems that the penalty for our false start to Fall earlier
this month is a 5 yard...I mean...5 day penalty for our first full
Fall-like day following the Autumnal Equinox (the start of the
astronomical season). That`ll be courtesy of a cold front that looks
to pass through generally in the late Wednesday/early Thursday
timeframe. The push for this cold front will be an upper level low
that cuts off from its parent trough (originally extends from the
Upper Midwest to the ARKLATEX). This upper level low will not only
be the driving force for the cold front, but it`ll also serve to
slingshot Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (likely to become Helene
by Tuesday) into the northeastern Gulf Coast. We`re still not
expecting any direct impacts to Southeast Texas, but if you want
to read more about PTC Nine see the Tropical section down below.
There will be chances for scattered showers/storms along and ahead
of the frontal boundary, and prefrontal compressional heating
should allow us to squeeze out another day in the low 90s. On late
Wednesday/early Thursday, we have FROPA...and the details for
what`s behind that is so fantastic that it deserves its own
paragraph
By Thursday morning, PW values will be near the 10th percentile
(~0.88") and dew points will be down into the upper 50s/low 60s.
Now drier air still heats efficiently, but there`ll be cooler air
aloft thanks to the close proximity of the upper level low so
we`re only looking at high temperatures in the 80s Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures on Thursday/Friday night will be downright
pleasant with lows in the 60s. Double bonus, rain chances become
non-existent through the end of the work week with plenty of blue
skies to boot...but rain chances may come back over the weekend.
While there does look to be a general warming trend over the
weekend, it does come with a bit of uncertainty that all depends
on how quickly the upper level low ejects northeastward. If it
spends a longer period of time near the ARKLATEX, that keeps us
with cooler 850mb temperatures aloft. While it would still get
warmer, it`d be more of a small bump into the upper 80s/low 90s.
If it ejects northeastward quicker like the Canadian and 12Z Euro
are suggesting, then warmer 850mb temperatures would be able to
move in behind it and place us on the higher end of the
temperature guidance (mid 90s). All in all, we`ll have to see how
the upper level low interacts with the tropical system...but we
can at least plan on having a very pleasant end of the work week
that will actually feel like Fall. Some wraparound moisture could
attempt to reintroduce rain chances later in the weekend for areas
north of I-10, but this also depends on the placement of the upper
level low.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Seeing scattered showers continuing across western and southeast
areas. Expect these to continue through the aft hours. Possible
to see a few TSRA mainly near SGR and HOU. Should lose most
convection this evening with the loss of heating. However, there
is a weak frontal boundary located across NW areas which could be
a focus from some isolated SHRA tonight. Tomorrow, expect
scattered showers areawide in the morning, a chance of TSRA across
the southeast half. Early tomorrow also expecting MVFR ceilings
at some sites, especially at CLL, UTS and CXO.
Wood/McNeel
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will
continue into midweek. Daily chances for showers/storms also
persist ahead of an approaching cold front that will push through
the coastal waters on late Wednesday/early Thursday. By Wednesday,
winds will transition to northeasterly and likely will reach
caution flag criteria. Behind the front, expect increasing seas
and northeasterly winds that will likely necessitate Small Craft
Advisories. Elevated winds and seas should gradually subside by
Friday.
Mariners should continue to monitor the latest from the National
Hurricane Center on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (likely to
become Helene). This system is expected to intensify as it tracks
through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and towards the northeastern Gulf
Coast later this week. At this time, we are still expecting little
to no local impacts other than increased swells and an increased
risk for strong rip currents after midweek.
Batiste
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now issuing advisories on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (likely to become Helene). This
disturbance is expected to strengthen and become a tropical storm
by Tuesday morning in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a
hurricane by Wednesday morning as it enters the southern Gulf of
Mexico. All model/ensemble guidance continue to keep PTC Nine in
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and towards the northeastern Gulf
Coast/Florida Panhandle. At this time, we are still expecting
little to no local impacts for Southeast Texas other than
increased swells and an increased risk for strong rip currents
after midweek along Gulf- facing beaches. Please continue to
monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the NHC at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 90 70 88 / 30 30 40 20
Houston (IAH) 76 92 74 90 / 20 40 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 79 88 77 87 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Wood/McNeel
MARINE...Batiste
FXUS64 KHGX 232020
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, TROPICAL...
.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Seeing scattered showers this afternoon across the southwestern
half of the area where deeper moisture exists. An outflow boundary
originating from shower activity off to the NW shifted sfc winds
to N/NE across northern areas, but this boundary has stalled. Tonight,
a cool front will sag southeast into the area and this boundary may
provide a focus for some shower development overnight. Some patchy fog
is possible near and southeast of the front late tonight and early
tomorrow with light winds in place. Tomorrow, the frontal boundary will
likely become quasi-stationary across the area and will help focus
scattered showers and storms, especially during the afternoon hours.
Max temps tomorrow will be near 90, with partly to mostly cloudy skies.
Will see min temps a little cooler on Tuesday night across northern
areas which will be behind the front. Drier air will arrive after the
period on Wednesday as the front pushes further southeast.
Wood
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
What`s this yellow flag doing on the ground over here?! And is
that a referee?!
"False start to Fall...Southeast Texas...5 day penalty...repeat the
FROPA"
Ahh so it seems that the penalty for our false start to Fall earlier
this month is a 5 yard...I mean...5 day penalty for our first full
Fall-like day following the Autumnal Equinox (the start of the
astronomical season). That`ll be courtesy of a cold front that looks
to pass through generally in the late Wednesday/early Thursday
timeframe. The push for this cold front will be an upper level low
that cuts off from its parent trough (originally extends from the
Upper Midwest to the ARKLATEX). This upper level low will not only
be the driving force for the cold front, but it`ll also serve to
slingshot Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (likely to become Helene
by Tuesday) into the northeastern Gulf Coast. We`re still not
expecting any direct impacts to Southeast Texas, but if you want
to read more about PTC Nine see the Tropical section down below.
There will be chances for scattered showers/storms along and ahead
of the frontal boundary, and prefrontal compressional heating
should allow us to squeeze out another day in the low 90s. On late
Wednesday/early Thursday, we have FROPA...and the details for
what`s behind that is so fantastic that it deserves its own
paragraph
By Thursday morning, PW values will be near the 10th percentile
(~0.88") and dew points will be down into the upper 50s/low 60s.
Now drier air still heats efficiently, but there`ll be cooler air
aloft thanks to the close proximity of the upper level low so
we`re only looking at high temperatures in the 80s Thursday and
Friday. Temperatures on Thursday/Friday night will be downright
pleasant with lows in the 60s. Double bonus, rain chances become
non-existent through the end of the work week with plenty of blue
skies to boot...but rain chances may come back over the weekend.
While there does look to be a general warming trend over the
weekend, it does come with a bit of uncertainty that all depends
on how quickly the upper level low ejects northeastward. If it
spends a longer period of time near the ARKLATEX, that keeps us
with cooler 850mb temperatures aloft. While it would still get
warmer, it`d be more of a small bump into the upper 80s/low 90s.
If it ejects northeastward quicker like the Canadian and 12Z Euro
are suggesting, then warmer 850mb temperatures would be able to
move in behind it and place us on the higher end of the
temperature guidance (mid 90s). All in all, we`ll have to see how
the upper level low interacts with the tropical system...but we
can at least plan on having a very pleasant end of the work week
that will actually feel like Fall. Some wraparound moisture could
attempt to reintroduce rain chances later in the weekend for areas
north of I-10, but this also depends on the placement of the upper
level low.
Batiste
&&
.AVIATION...
(18Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 1222 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Seeing scattered showers continuing across western and southeast
areas. Expect these to continue through the aft hours. Possible
to see a few TSRA mainly near SGR and HOU. Should lose most
convection this evening with the loss of heating. However, there
is a weak frontal boundary located across NW areas which could be
a focus from some isolated SHRA tonight. Tomorrow, expect
scattered showers areawide in the morning, a chance of TSRA across
the southeast half. Early tomorrow also expecting MVFR ceilings
at some sites, especially at CLL, UTS and CXO.
Wood/McNeel
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow and low seas will
continue into midweek. Daily chances for showers/storms also
persist ahead of an approaching cold front that will push through
the coastal waters on late Wednesday/early Thursday. By Wednesday,
winds will transition to northeasterly and likely will reach
caution flag criteria. Behind the front, expect increasing seas
and northeasterly winds that will likely necessitate Small Craft
Advisories. Elevated winds and seas should gradually subside by
Friday.
Mariners should continue to monitor the latest from the National
Hurricane Center on Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (likely to
become Helene). This system is expected to intensify as it tracks
through the eastern Gulf of Mexico and towards the northeastern Gulf
Coast later this week. At this time, we are still expecting little
to no local impacts other than increased swells and an increased
risk for strong rip currents after midweek.
Batiste
&&
.TROPICAL...
Issued at 320 PM CDT Mon Sep 23 2024
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is now issuing advisories on
Potential Tropical Cyclone Nine (likely to become Helene). This
disturbance is expected to strengthen and become a tropical storm
by Tuesday morning in the northwestern Caribbean Sea and a
hurricane by Wednesday morning as it enters the southern Gulf of
Mexico. All model/ensemble guidance continue to keep PTC Nine in
the eastern Gulf of Mexico and towards the northeastern Gulf
Coast/Florida Panhandle. At this time, we are still expecting
little to no local impacts for Southeast Texas other than
increased swells and an increased risk for strong rip currents
after midweek along Gulf- facing beaches. Please continue to
monitor the latest forecasts and updates from the NHC at
www.hurricanes.gov.
Batiste
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 73 90 70 88 / 30 30 40 20
Houston (IAH) 76 92 74 90 / 20 40 30 30
Galveston (GLS) 79 88 77 87 / 10 30 20 40
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Wood
LONG TERM....Batiste
AVIATION...Wood/McNeel
MARINE...Batiste
-
Stratton20
- Posts: 4885
- Joined: Tue Feb 09, 2021 11:35 pm
- Location: College Station, Texas
- Contact:
18z GEFS has a pretty decent front around the 1/2nd of october, low 80 ‘s for highs and lows in the 60’s for houston as well as much lower humidity , bring it on!
1.45" in Danbury today
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
712
FXUS64 KHGX 241136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
A stationary boundary draped across the NW portion of SE Texas this
morning will contribute to scattered showers and storms today,
particularly during the afternoon hours. Max temperatures today will
be in the 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Tonight`s
temperatures will be in the 70s for the majority of the area.
Locations behind the stalled front will experience slightly cooler
lows as temperatures dip into the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday`s temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the NW
portion of the area as the front sags further into SE Texas and N/NE
winds bring in cooler air. The front is projected to slowly move
through Wednesday during the day, reaching the coast late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. As the front cuts across the area
it will interact with ample moisture in place resulting in scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the front. Closer to I-
10 and south, compressional heating ahead of the front should allow
for highs to reach into the low 90s. Wednesday night into Thursday
morning lows in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods will certainly
feel more fall like as temperatures drop into the low 60s. Closer to
the metro and south to the coast lows will be in the mid 60s to low
70s.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
In the wake of the cold front, area weather should be on the quiet side
through much of the period. Mid/upper level low will be situated off
to our northeast, and we might need to watch for increasing clouds occasionally
circulating around the low. Main weather story will be the lower humidities
each day, bottoming out in the 30s/40s inland and in the 50s closer
to the coast. For temperatures, highs will be in a mid to upper 80s
range at the start of the period (Thursday) and will gradually increase
almost daily back towards an upper 80s to mid 90s range at the end of
the period (Monday). Lows will be in the 60s for much of the area.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
VFR at all sites this morning. A weak frontal boundary will result
in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the
early evening hours. Kept with previous forecast and maintained
VCTS/PROB30. Rain should wind down after 00Z. VFR conditions will
prevail overnight into Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow, low seas and increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through today.
Winds will gradually back to the northeast on Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front, and there will also be increasing chances of
the showers and thunderstorms. This cold front is expected to move
through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing moderate
to strong northerly winds through Thursday night. Seas will likely increase
to 4 to 6 feet due to the increase in winds. Small Craft Advisories
may be needed.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 70 88 65 / 40 40 20 0
Houston (IAH) 92 74 90 69 / 50 30 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 77 87 72 / 30 20 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 241136
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
636 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
A stationary boundary draped across the NW portion of SE Texas this
morning will contribute to scattered showers and storms today,
particularly during the afternoon hours. Max temperatures today will
be in the 90s under partly to mostly cloudy skies. Tonight`s
temperatures will be in the 70s for the majority of the area.
Locations behind the stalled front will experience slightly cooler
lows as temperatures dip into the mid to upper 60s.
Wednesday`s temperatures will be a few degrees cooler in the NW
portion of the area as the front sags further into SE Texas and N/NE
winds bring in cooler air. The front is projected to slowly move
through Wednesday during the day, reaching the coast late Wednesday
night into early Thursday morning. As the front cuts across the area
it will interact with ample moisture in place resulting in scattered
showers and thunderstorms ahead of and along the front. Closer to I-
10 and south, compressional heating ahead of the front should allow
for highs to reach into the low 90s. Wednesday night into Thursday
morning lows in the Brazos Valley and Piney Woods will certainly
feel more fall like as temperatures drop into the low 60s. Closer to
the metro and south to the coast lows will be in the mid 60s to low
70s.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Thursday through Monday)
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
In the wake of the cold front, area weather should be on the quiet side
through much of the period. Mid/upper level low will be situated off
to our northeast, and we might need to watch for increasing clouds occasionally
circulating around the low. Main weather story will be the lower humidities
each day, bottoming out in the 30s/40s inland and in the 50s closer
to the coast. For temperatures, highs will be in a mid to upper 80s
range at the start of the period (Thursday) and will gradually increase
almost daily back towards an upper 80s to mid 90s range at the end of
the period (Monday). Lows will be in the 60s for much of the area.
42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 630 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
VFR at all sites this morning. A weak frontal boundary will result
in scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into the
early evening hours. Kept with previous forecast and maintained
VCTS/PROB30. Rain should wind down after 00Z. VFR conditions will
prevail overnight into Wednesday morning.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 330 AM CDT Tue Sep 24 2024
Light to occasionally moderate onshore flow, low seas and increasing
chances of showers and thunderstorms can be expected through today.
Winds will gradually back to the northeast on Wednesday ahead of an
approaching cold front, and there will also be increasing chances of
the showers and thunderstorms. This cold front is expected to move
through the area late Wednesday night into Thursday bringing moderate
to strong northerly winds through Thursday night. Seas will likely increase
to 4 to 6 feet due to the increase in winds. Small Craft Advisories
may be needed.
42
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 90 70 88 65 / 40 40 20 0
Houston (IAH) 92 74 90 69 / 50 30 30 10
Galveston (GLS) 88 77 87 72 / 30 20 40 10
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42
Lower humidity is coming Thursday. It’ll feel pretty nice later this week and into the weekend. Just need some rain.Stratton20 wrote: ↑Mon Sep 23, 2024 6:22 pm 18z GEFS has a pretty decent front around the 1/2nd of october, low 80 ‘s for highs and lows in the 60’s for houston as well as much lower humidity , bring it on!
Spotty showers linger just south of CLL. Looks like a bust.
Lows of 64°F and 62°F Wednesday and Thursday night. Should be nice, but it will be time to prepare for brown patch and weed season!
We caught a break in July, but horticulture and laws maintenance in the Brazos Valley is not for the faint of heart!
Lows of 64°F and 62°F Wednesday and Thursday night. Should be nice, but it will be time to prepare for brown patch and weed season!
We caught a break in July, but horticulture and laws maintenance in the Brazos Valley is not for the faint of heart!
-
tireman4
- Global Moderator
- Posts: 5169
- Joined: Wed Feb 03, 2010 9:24 pm
- Location: Humble, Texas
- Contact:
08
FXUS64 KHGX 251155
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
A secondary cold front will move through SE Texas later this
afternoon, and will move offshore early Thursday morning.
Temperatures today will reach into the 80s to low 90s. Dew points
behind the front are forecast to drop into the 50s to low 60s with
lows tonight in the 60s inland and in the low 70s around the metro
and along the coast. NW winds will continue to pull in cooler air
Thursday into Thursday night with highs on Thursday reaching into
the low to mid 80s area wide. Lows for Thursday will be a few
degrees cooler than tonight`s lows with most of the area in the 60s.
A few locations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley could see
temperatures dip into the upper 50s.
As far as precipitation is concerned, there is still plenty of
moisture to work with as PW values sit in the 1.6-2.0" range ahead
of the next front. As this boundary interacts with the moisture it
will result in isolated to scattered showers developing along and
ahead of the front. Activity will start out in the NW corner of the
CWA this morning and push towards the coast through the duration of
the day. While most of the activity should taper off tonight, some
lingering showers will be possible into Thursday morning. There is a
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for a line along and south of
Columbus to Huntsville to Seven Oaks. The main hazards with storms
will be the potential for damaging winds.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Mostly sunny days and mostly clear to clear nights can be expected
through a majority of this period. We could see some wrap around
clouds across parts of the area at the end of the week and possibly
into the weekend in association with the cuttoff low centered off to
our northeast. This low`s edging into our area gets replaced with a
building mid/upper level ridge heading on into next week resulting
in a gradual warming trend. Look for a gradual warming trend through
this period (for highs...starting with a mid 80s to low 90s range on
Friday rising into an upper 80s to mid 90s range by Tuesday; for
lows....starting with a low to mid 60s range inland to the low 70s
coast on Friday night rising into a mid 60s to lower 70s range
inland to mid 70s coast on Tuesday night). 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
MVFR VSBYs at CXO/SGR terminals this morning, all other terminals
at VFR (with exception of LBX which is not reporting obs). Expect
VSBYs to improve to VFR shortly after sunrise. Showers and storms
expected again today, beginning with northern terminals and
expanding SE through the day. Could see gusty winds at CLL behind
front. Storms should diminish later this evening with VFR
prevailing through the rest of the period. Winds will be light
with a northerly component.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
A cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms will push off
the coast and through the coastal waters tonight. Light onshore winds
ahead of the front will become moderate to occasionally strong north
to northeast winds in the front`s wake. Behind the front, caution flags
will likely be needed, and advisories will be possible for the increasing
winds and building seas. Weakening winds and lowering seas can be expected
at the end of the week and over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 65 86 62 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 92 69 87 67 / 50 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 74 86 72 / 50 30 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42
FXUS64 KHGX 251155
AFDHGX
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
655 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
...New AVIATION...
.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday Night)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
A secondary cold front will move through SE Texas later this
afternoon, and will move offshore early Thursday morning.
Temperatures today will reach into the 80s to low 90s. Dew points
behind the front are forecast to drop into the 50s to low 60s with
lows tonight in the 60s inland and in the low 70s around the metro
and along the coast. NW winds will continue to pull in cooler air
Thursday into Thursday night with highs on Thursday reaching into
the low to mid 80s area wide. Lows for Thursday will be a few
degrees cooler than tonight`s lows with most of the area in the 60s.
A few locations in the Piney Woods and Brazos Valley could see
temperatures dip into the upper 50s.
As far as precipitation is concerned, there is still plenty of
moisture to work with as PW values sit in the 1.6-2.0" range ahead
of the next front. As this boundary interacts with the moisture it
will result in isolated to scattered showers developing along and
ahead of the front. Activity will start out in the NW corner of the
CWA this morning and push towards the coast through the duration of
the day. While most of the activity should taper off tonight, some
lingering showers will be possible into Thursday morning. There is a
Marginal Risk for severe thunderstorms for a line along and south of
Columbus to Huntsville to Seven Oaks. The main hazards with storms
will be the potential for damaging winds.
Adams
&&
.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Tuesday)
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
Mostly sunny days and mostly clear to clear nights can be expected
through a majority of this period. We could see some wrap around
clouds across parts of the area at the end of the week and possibly
into the weekend in association with the cuttoff low centered off to
our northeast. This low`s edging into our area gets replaced with a
building mid/upper level ridge heading on into next week resulting
in a gradual warming trend. Look for a gradual warming trend through
this period (for highs...starting with a mid 80s to low 90s range on
Friday rising into an upper 80s to mid 90s range by Tuesday; for
lows....starting with a low to mid 60s range inland to the low 70s
coast on Friday night rising into a mid 60s to lower 70s range
inland to mid 70s coast on Tuesday night). 42
&&
.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 647 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
MVFR VSBYs at CXO/SGR terminals this morning, all other terminals
at VFR (with exception of LBX which is not reporting obs). Expect
VSBYs to improve to VFR shortly after sunrise. Showers and storms
expected again today, beginning with northern terminals and
expanding SE through the day. Could see gusty winds at CLL behind
front. Storms should diminish later this evening with VFR
prevailing through the rest of the period. Winds will be light
with a northerly component.
&&
.MARINE...
Issued at 219 AM CDT Wed Sep 25 2024
A cold front and associated showers and thunderstorms will push off
the coast and through the coastal waters tonight. Light onshore winds
ahead of the front will become moderate to occasionally strong north
to northeast winds in the front`s wake. Behind the front, caution flags
will likely be needed, and advisories will be possible for the increasing
winds and building seas. Weakening winds and lowering seas can be expected
at the end of the week and over the weekend.
&&
.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 89 65 86 62 / 20 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 92 69 87 67 / 50 10 0 0
Galveston (GLS) 88 74 86 72 / 50 30 0 0
&&
.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...None.
GM...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...Adams
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Adams
MARINE...42
We are just a few days away from one of my favorite words in the English language: “October.”
Just missed the ragged MCV thing. No rain, but drier air is ahead.
I have not had rain in weeks. Nothing this week, and I was hoping for something. The yard doesn’t look good at all.
Same here. Keep hoping for rain, only for it to fall apart.