Tropical Storm Francine

[tireman4]

000
WTNT31 KNHC 101153
TCPAT1

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Francine Intermediate Advisory Number 7A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL062024
700 AM CDT Tue Sep 10 2024

...FRANCINE LIKELY TO BECOME A HURRICANE TODAY...
...HURRICANE WARNING EXTENDED EASTWARD ALONG THE LOUISIANA COAST...


SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.5N 95.9W
ABOUT 125 MI...200 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 395 MI...540 KM SSW OF CAMERON LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB...29.23 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Hurricane Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast east
of Morgan City to Grand Isle.

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect for the Louisiana coast
east of Grand Isle to the mouth of the Pearl River, including
metropolitan New Orleans, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* High Island Texas to the Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana
* Vermilion Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...
* The Louisiana coast from Sabine Pass eastward to Grand Isle

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Mouth of the Mississippi River Louisiana to the
Mississippi/Alabama Border
* Lake Maurepas
* Lake Pontchartrain

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Morgan City to Grand Isle
* High Island to Sabine Pass
* Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield
* La Pesca Mexico to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Grand Isle Louisiana to Mouth of the Pearl River,
including metropolitan New Orleans
* Lake Pontchartrain
* Lake Maurepas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Barra del Tordo to La Pesca Mexico
* Port Mansfield to High Island Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. A Storm Surge
Watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation,
from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated
locations during the next 48 hours.

For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected
somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36
hours before the anticipated first occurrence of
tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside
preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life
and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area
outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by
your national meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Francine was
located near latitude 24.5 North, longitude 95.9 West. Francine is
moving toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h). A slow northward
motion is expected through this morning, followed by a turn to the
northeast with an increase in forward speed. On the forecast
track, Francine is anticipated to be just offshore of the coasts of
northeastern Mexico and southern Texas through today, and make
landfall in Louisiana on Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 65 mph (100 km/h) with higher
gusts. Francine will likely become a hurricane today, with
significant strengthening expected before it reaches the coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
from the center.

The minimum central pressure just reported by a NOAA Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is 990 mb (29.23 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Tropical Storm Francine can be found in the
Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT1 and WMO
header WTNT41 KNHC.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected within the hurricane
warning area on Wednesday. Hurricane conditions are possible in the
hurricane watch area on Wednesday, with tropical storm conditions
expected by Wednesday morning within the warning areas.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in the warning area in Mexico
and south Texas through this afternoon. Tropical storm conditions
are possible within the watch area along the northeastern coast
of Mexico for the next several hours. Tropical storm conditions
are also possible along portions of the Texas coast in the watch
area today and tonight, and are possible in the watch area in
eastern Louisiana on Wednesday.

RAINFALL: Francine is expected to bring storm total rainfall of 4 to
8 inches, with local amounts to 12 inches across much of Louisiana
and Mississippi through Friday morning. This rainfall could lead
to considerable flash and urban flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with
Francine, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total
Rainfall Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk
graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?ero.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Cameron, LA to Port Fourchon, LA...5-10 ft
Vermilion Bay...5-10 ft
Port Fourchon, LA to Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA...4-7 ft
High Island, TX to Cameron, LA...3-5 ft
Mouth of the Mississippi River, LA to MS/AL Border...2-4 ft
Lake Pontchartrain and Lake Maurepas...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to High Island, TX...1-3 ft
Galveston Bay...1-3 ft
MS/AL Border to AL/FL Border...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to
the east of the landfall location, where the surge will be
accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding
depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and
can vary greatly over short distances. Storm surge is not expected
to pose a threat to the risk reduction system levees. However,
there may be some overtopping of local levees. For information
specific to your area, please see products issued by your local
National Weather Service forecast office.

Minor coastal flooding is possible along the coast of Mexico in
areas of onshore winds.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge
inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak
Storm Surge Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov/graphics_at1.shtml?peakSurge.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Wednesday morning through
Wednesday night over near-coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi,
Alabama, and the Florida Panhandle.

SURF: Swells generated by Francine are affecting portions of the
coast of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. These swells are
expected to spread across the northwestern and northern Gulf of
Mexico coastline during the next day or so. These swells are likely
to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please
consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven

[srainhoutx]

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0987
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
936 AM EDT Tue Sep 10 2024

Areas affected...TX and southwestern LA coast

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding possible

Valid 101335Z - 101835Z

Summary...Isolated flash flooding will be possible along TX
coastal locations into far southwestern LA through 18Z. Rainfall
rates of 1 to 2+ inches may allow for spotty 2-4" totals.

Discussion...13Z radar imagery from KBRO showed the northwestern
edge of higher reflectivity associated with the inner core of T.S.
Francine located 80 miles southeast of South Padre Island, TX.
There was a gap in rainfall northwest of Francine, between the
inner core and a fairly persistent rain band impacting southern
Kenedy into Willacy counties with MRMS-derived rainfall rates of 1
to 2+ in/hr. MRMS rainfall estimates are believed to be reliable
given matching values of MRMS to local gauge data in/near
Brownsville earlier between 09-12Z.

A combination of 12Z soundings, GPS and SPC mesoanalysis data
showed precipitable water values along the LA and TX coasts to be
between 2.1 and 2.8 inches, and MLCAPE of up to 250 J/kg, except
along the far southern TX coast where MLCAPE is estimated to be
between 500-1000 J/kg. However, available instability was limited
to coastal locations, falling off rapidly with inland extent.
While Francine is currently moving slowly toward the north, an
expected turn toward the northeast along with an increase in
forward speed through 18Z is forecast by the 09Z NHC advisory.
This motion will likely allow outer rainbands to move ashore the
middle and upper TX coasts into far southwestern LA by early
afternoon but instability should remain limited for coastal
locations through 18Z, except for the upper TX coast where values
of 500-1000 J/kg are forecast by recent RAP guidance. Low level
convergence will allow for brief training potential along the
entire TX coastline with rainfall rates of 1 to locally 2+ inches
per hour and localized 2-4 inch totals. Flash flooding will be
possible but should remain very isolated with some locations not
seeing much if any rainfall through 18Z.

Otto

ATTN...WFO...BRO...CRP...HGX...LCH...

[Pas_Bon]

Honestly, it's like this thing pre-mapped her route and decided that nothing of substance was going to reach the Tx coast. It's so bizarre....it's like a razor-thin line of demarcation that ends right at the coastline.

[tireman4]

Blake Matthews

[tireman4]

Francine starting to organize and turn NNE toward Louisiana, with a slight eastward adjustment today
September 10, 2024 at 11:04 am by Matt Lanza
Headlines
Francine is slowly organizing itself today and has turned NNE off the coast of Mexico.
The storm is expected to become a hurricane tonight as it tracks toward Louisiana.
There has been a minor eastward adjustment to the track forecast today, bringing it in on the east side of the Atchafalaya Basin.
Watches and warnings were extended east to Mississippi and Alabama today.
Storm surge predictions have nudged up a hair in eastern Louisiana, including Lake Pontchartrain but remain at a 5 to 10 foot peak in central Louisiana.
Rain will cause areas of flash flooding across Louisiana and Mississippi in particular tomorrow.
Isolated tornadoes are possible from Acadiana through the western Florida Panhandle tomorrow.
No other areas of concern to land right now in the tropics.


Francine now & intensity outlook
After a night of struggles, Francine is putting itself back together today and appears to be on the upswing. Satellite imagery shows a developing core that has eradicated a lot of the dry air that was inhibiting organization overnight.


Francine’s core is beginning to better organize this morning and steady intensification is expected over the next 18 to 24 hours.
If you look at that loop above, you may be confused by “two” areas of storms. The northern most one is connected. I’m speculating that it may be a predecessor rain event (PRE) due to jet stream interaction downstream of the storm itself. What you should focus on in terms of judging the storm is the core off the coast of northern Mexico, and that’s what’s gradually picking up today. I will say, there is ample dry air over Texas and the Deep South that could continue to impact Francine in some capacity. If the core can close off from this, it has a 12 to 18 hour window to perhaps rapidly intensify before that dry air almost certainly gets involved once more.


European model view of mid-level moisture over the Southern Plains shows Francine likely continuing to pull in some dry air which could limit intensification a bit.
In addition, Francine will encounter a wall of wind shear on the Gulf Coast that will help to weaken it quickly once inland. I don’t want to minimize impacts at all, but this will have some challenges in front of it.

So, expect Francine to become a hurricane later today or tonight. It has some chance to get to category 2 intensity, but it is likely to come ashore as a stout category 1. Either way, we’re sort of nitpicking at this point. Landfall is expected to occur tomorrow afternoon with impacts beginning in earnest later in the overnight.

Francine’s track
The forecast track of Francine takes it on a beeline toward Louisiana. There has been some movement to the east this morning in the model guidance which brings it more toward Atchafalaya Bay. Some models even bring it as far east as Houma or Port Fourchon. As a result, tropical storm watches and warnings have been extended east into Mississippi and Alabama now. More on the winds in certain places below.

Francine’s impacts
We continue to see storm surge risk from Francine peaking between Port Fourchon and Grand Chenier at 5 to 10 feet. With the latest forecast update, the surge has been revised upward to the east somewhat, with 3 to 5 feet now in Lake Pontchartrain and along the Mississippi coast. Surge of 4 to 7 feet is expected near Grand Isle to the mouth of the Mississippi River.


Storm surge reasonable peak forecast above ground level.
The rainfall forecast likewise has been adjusted eastward some. We now expect around 2 inches in Lake Charles to as much as 8 to 12 inches in the bays and coast of the Atchafalaya Basin. As much as 6 to 8 inches may fall between Lafayette and Gulfport northward a bit. Flash flooding is possible across southern Mississippi as well. Moderate (level 3/4) risks for excessive rainfall exist in much of those areas near where the storm comes ashore tomorrow.


Rain totals will be highest in the Atchafalaya Basin east into southeast Louisiana and southern Mississippi. (NOAA WPC)
Here’s a revised version of the maximum forecast wind gusts by location today based on currently available NWS forecasts, subject to change:

Houston: 25 mph
Galveston: 31 mph
Beaumont: 25 mph
Port Arthur: 37 mph
Lake Charles: 39 mph
Lafayette: 47 mph
Baton Rouge: 95 mph
Port Fourchon: 55 mph
New Orleans: 45 mph
Gulfport: 45 mph
Natchez: 36 mph
Vicksburg: 32 mph
Jackson, MS: 40 mph
Mobile, AL: 32 mph

The Baton Rouge value is because the storm is expected to pass very near there (the only major city on this list to see that) so gusts of category 1 intensity seem reasonable. This will likely cause some substantial power outages across that region between New Orleans and Lafayette. The drop off in wind to the north of there may be significant, with much less in the way of wind impacts north of I-10/I-12 than south of there.

Isolated tornado risk is a safe bet across much of eastern Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and perhaps southern Alabama and the Florida Panhandle. The region is in a slight (level 2/5) risk of severe weather tomorrow.


A slight risk (level 2/5) is posted from Acadiana through the western Florida Panhandle for severe weather tomorrow due to isolated tornado risk. (NOAA SPC)
Other Francine notes

Houston: For our Houston readers, please see Space City Weather for the latest. There should be no meaningful impacts in the area.

Lower Rio Grande Valley: Heavy rain led to some localized flash flooding issues east of Brownsville to the coast this morning. Rain totals of 2 to 6 inches were estimated by radar.


Rain totals as high as 6 inches or so were estimated by radar at the mouth of the Rio Grande.
Additional rain may fall today but the worst of the flooding threat should be over here now.

New Orleans: City officials are advising residents to shelter in place during the storm overnight and tomorrow. Significant flooding impacts should not be a serious concern, but localized flooding will likely occur around the city and metro area. Follow local officials in southeast Louisiana and NOLA Ready for the latest local information.

Elsewhere in the tropics
We haven’t been ignoring the rest of the tropical Atlantic, but there’s not a lot to worry over right now. Invest 92L has about a 40 percent chance of developing over the next few days, which is down somewhat. The next area to watch east of there is up to 70 percent over the next week, and there is decent model support for something that may head out to sea.


Tropical development is becoming less likely with Invest 92L, while the area east of there is up to a 70 percent chance.
Otherwise, models are generally unenthused with any areas over the next week or so. It does appear conditions are slowly becoming more conducive for tropical activity late in September. It probably would be a time to watch the Caribbean for any threats. But we’re a long way off from that right now.

[tireman4]

Blake Matthews...

[jasons2k]

Upgraded to Hurricane Francine at 7pm.

By the way, the dew point up here rose from 60 degrees up to 75 from 6am to noon today.

[tireman4]

Hurricane Francine Update

[tireman4]

Read on blog or Reader
Site logo image The Eyewall
Hurricane Francine on initial approach to Louisiana this morning
By Matt Lanza on September 11, 2024

Headlines
Francine make its initial approach to the Louisiana coast as a high-end category 1 hurricane.
Francine will make landfall late this afternoon or evening, likely between the Atchafalaya Delta and Port Fourchon.
Significant wind and surge issues are likely at the coast with lesser impacts inland but tropical storm force winds and power outages a good bet between Lafayette and coastal Mississippi.
4 to 8 inches of rain expected in Louisiana and southern Mississippi with flash flooding likely in spots.
Francine will slam on the brakes near Memphis but should basically just die off in place with scattered rains the rest of this week across the Southeast.

4 AM CT advisory, warnings, and track.
Francine now
Hurricane Francine has 90 mph maximum sustained winds this morning, as it did some work overnight to get more organized. It has a few hours left to gain some more intensity before it runs into dry air and wind shear that will likely take its toll on the storm.


Hurricane Francine is not the most well-organized storm we've ever seen, but it did some work putting itself together overnight.
Francine's outer rain shield has pushed ashore, mainly south of I-10 in Louisiana so far. Rain will continue to spread inland today.

Francine's forecast and impacts
As of the 4 AM CT advisory, Francine was moving northeast at 10 mph. This speed should pick up some through the day. On its current track, a landfall between the Atchafalaya Delta and Port Fourchon seems most likely. That should occur late this afternoon or evening. As noted, rain has begun to overspread Louisiana, mainly east of Cameron and Lake Charles, and that will continue today. Rain totals of 4 to 8 inches in the Atchafalaya Basin and into parts of Mississippi. Rainfall will be 4 to 6 inches in New Orleans east to the Florida Panhandle.


The rain forecast for Francine shows peak totals west of New Orleans.
Flash flooding is likely in spots, and the Weather Prediction Center has a moderate risk (level 3 of 4) for flash flooding risk in much of southeastern Louisiana and portions of southern Mississippi.


A moderate risk of flash flooding (level 3/4) is in place for eastern Louisiana and southern Mississippi today.
In addition to excessive rainfall, we expect to see isolated tornadoes today, and a slight risk (level 2/5) for severe storms exists in eastern Louisiana, extending east to the Florida Panhandle.

In terms of wind, the highest risk will be right at the coast, obviously. As you push inland, we'll see hurricane-force wind risk extend into Morgan City, Houma, and perhaps extreme southwest portions of the New Orleans metro. New Orleans proper should see moderate to high-end tropical storm force winds, as will Baton Rouge, perhaps Lafayette, and up into portions of southern Mississippi.


Wind risk is highest on the immediate coast near landfall with hurricane force winds extending into portions of southern Louisiana, mainly south and southwest of Baton Rouge and New Orleans respectively. (NOAA NWS)
As we did yesterday, here are the current forecast maximum wind gusts as of 6:45 CT based on official National Weather Service forecasts.

Lake Charles: 36 mph
Lafayette: 49 mph
Baton Rouge: 51 mph
Port Fourchon: 67 mph
New Orleans: 57 mph
Morgan City: 87 mph
Houma: 67 mph
Gulfport: 62 mph
Natchez: 38 mph
Vicksburg: 38 mph
Jackson, MS: 40 mph
Mobile, AL: 37 mph

Storm surge will continue to be an issue as well with 5 to 10 foot surge expected on the Louisiana coast between Vermilion Bay and Port Fourchon. While the surge drops off east of there, it remains fairly substantial all the way to the Florida border, including a 2 to 4 foot surge in Mobile and 4 to 6 foot surge in Mississippi and in Lake Pontchartrain.


Storm surge will be at maximum between Vermilion Bay and Port Fourchon at 5 to 10 feet. Lake Pontchartrain should see a 4 to 6 foot surge.
Beyond the coast, Francine will accelerate north into Mississippi, but it will slam on the brakes (as a non-tropical storm) just south or west of Memphis. As it just sort of sits, spins, and dies off, periods of scattered showers and storms will impact parts of the Southeast through the rest of the week off and on. No serious flooding is expected at this time, but it'll be a good idea to keep tabs on things in Georgia, Tennessee, and Alabama perhaps heading into the weekend.

No other land concerns in the tropics right now. We'll have another update before evening today.

[tireman4]

Francine..

[javakah]

Now up to a Cat 2 for Louisiana.

[DoctorMu]

Now up to a Cat 2 for Louisiana.

Reed Timmer nailed it. Again - like Beryl. He projected the northward turn while July 4 weekend crew Mets were playing catchup.

[Pas_Bon]

Now up to a Cat 2 for Louisiana.

Reed Timmer nailed it. Again - like Beryl. He projected the northward turn while July 4 weekend crew Mets were playing catchup.

Yep. Him and Travis Herzog.