December Weather Discussion. Will We See Rain?

[Kludge]

Thanks for the change to the title of this thread, mods....

I love snow as much if not more than anyone on here... but desparate times call for desparate wishes. We're really hurting for moisture here in the northern part of the CWA. Frozen or otherwise. We're in "Extreme" drought, with a real possibility of moving up to "Exceptional" drought if this nina chick doesn't hurry up and get outta town.

Let's all do a rain dance... with hope for some flakes while we try to catch up to 'normal'.

[srainhoutx]

Fingers still crossed that this works out no matter how meager regarding the amount of moisture for our drought parched area...

HGX:

A NORTHERN TEXAS PASSING SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE MID TO LATE FRIDAY
APPEARS TO HAVE ENOUGH DOWNSTREAM MOISTURE AND WARM AIR THERMODYNAMICS
TO INTRODUCE A MODEST CHANCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS. A COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE EARLY ON FRIDAY WILL PUSH A SHALLOW COOL DOME OF
AIR OVER THE REGION...OVERRUNNING MID-LEVEL SW`ERLIES INITIATING
DECENT ENOUGH ISENTROPIC LIFT TO GENERATE RAIN SHOWERS. MODERATE
CHANCE POPS OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FA AS THE PASSING
SHORTWAVE/EFFICIENT WAA INCREASES THE PROB OF MAINLY LIGHT QPF
SHOWERS. ANY RAIN WILL BE WELCOME IN THE MIDST OF THIS DROUGHT....
UNFORTUNATELY JUST A FEW HUNDREDTHS TO COUPLE OF TENTHS OF AN INCH
TOTALS WILL BE THE MOST MANY RECEIVE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING.

[srainhoutx]

HGX using the R word for late week...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
312 PM CST TUE DEC 14 2010

.DISCUSSION...
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOW OFF TO OUR EAST...MODERATE AND GUSTY
SOUTH WINDS HAVE RETURNED AREA WIDE. THIS ONSHORE FLOW WILL HELP TO
CONTINUE TO WARM THINGS UP THROUGH THURSDAY AHEAD OF OUR NEXT COLD
FRONT. THE ENTIRE AREA SHOULD SEE HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 70S ON
BOTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...CLOSE TO 10 TO 15 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.
THE NEXT COOL DOWN ARRIVES THURSDAY NIGHT AND ON INTO FRIDAY AS THE
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. A DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA FRIDAY/FRIDAY EVENING AND BRINGS MUCH OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS A CHANCE
OF RAIN. COOL TEMPERATURES THEN PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE HIGH MOVES EAST ON SUNDAY...AND THE
AREA BEGINS TO WARM UP ONCE AGAIN. THE TEMPERATURE ROLLER COASTER
CONTINUES NEXT WEEK WHEN ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD COMES THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING AND COOLS US DOWN ONCE AGAIN.

[biggerbyte]

Even with not much rain, my yard, including potted plants, are still saturated. I guess I'm one of the lucky ones. Good thing this is not the middle if summer. Things will dry out slower with our cold to mild temps as of late. If there is any blessing to be had...

[Kludge]

Like most of you, I'm a major weather weenie. When there's nothing going on in the weather, it feels like a significant part of my world is in the duldrums.

The current weather cycle is particularly frustrating. So as would be expected, I've been looking ahead at models to see if anything's on the horizon.

But I'm finding that there's really no need. All I have to do is look to this forum each morning. If the current thread is still on the same page after a whole day's gone by, that tells me that there's no change coming anytime soon. The experts/mods that visit this site are diligent in posting anything noteworthy...and the lack of their messages says volumes; "la nada" as someone aptly put it will keep its grips on us for some time to come.

[srainhoutx]

There may be some hope on the horizon and I mentioned yesterday that a pattern change may be ahead after Christmas. HGX also mentioned this as well this morning...

HGX:

LONG RANGE GFS DOES SHOW PROMISE WITH A DECENT 5H TROUGH
BREAKING DOWN THIS RIDGE AND INCREASING RAIN CHANCES DURING THE
LAST FEW DAYS OF 2010.

[srainhoutx]

Our moisture chances look meager for Friday in our area, but a nice light snow fall looks to be in the works for the Panhandle Regions and perhaps near the Red River Valley into OK.

[biggerbyte]

Word of the day is rainless, at least through the weekend. I'll give the weekend 20%, at best.

[biggerbyte]

Winter, and everything else is well east of here.

[srainhoutx]

Another rollercoaster day ahead regarding temps as the front is through a Nacogdoches, Georgetown, San Antonio line heading S at this hour...the Panhandle is under WWA for 2-4 inches of snow...

[tireman4]

Hello Front...


http://www.wunderground.com/wundermap/? ... on%2c%20TX

[Katdaddy]

Its 78F in League City. Tireman, I guess I better enjoy the last few hours of Spring-like weather

[srainhoutx]

Front is finally passing through NW Harris County at this hour.

[Andrew]

Front is finally passing through NW Harris County at this hour.

Wow this weather is just depressing. Luckily finals have keep me busy.

[srainhoutx]

[Ptarmigan]

Talk about a major QPF bomb for Sierra Nevada! They could bee seeing a lot of snow in the next 5 days!

[Ptarmigan]

HPC:

...WEST...

AN ONSLAUGHT OF HEAVY OROGRAPHIC SNOW IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT A GOOD
PORTION OF THE WESTERN STATES THIS FCST PERIOD... BASICALLY FROM
SAT THROUGH MON. A LARGE AND SLOW MOVING CIRCULATION OVER THE
NRN/NERN PAC WILL STEER A SERIES OF PAC DISTURBANCES AND ANOMALOUS
DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO CA AND PROCEED/TRANSPORT DOWNSTREAM
THROUGH THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. THE RESULTANT WILL BE A
TREMENDOUS DEVELOPING SNOW-PACK FROM THE SIERRA/NRN CA MTNS AND OR
CASCADES THROUGH MUCH OF THE INTERIOR WRN TERRAIN.

A VERY ACTIVE AND PERSISTENT WSWRLY TO NERLY 250 MB UPPER JET OF
150 KTS WILL STEER THESE IMPULSES INTO THE WEST... WHILE 00Z GFS
MOISTURE FLUX ANOMALIES ARE OFF THE CHARTS... BASICALLY 4 TO 5
TIMES ABOVE AVG. THE COMBINATION OF THE STRONG FORCING...
IMPRESSIVE AVAILABLE PAC/TROPICAL MOISTURE TRANSPORT AND
BROAD/ENHANCED UPPER DIVERGENCE WILL LIKELY PUMMEL THE TERRAIN
WITH MORE FEET THAN SINGLE INCHES OF SNOW.

ON SAT... A GENERAL AND BROAD ONSHORE COMPONENT WILL BE IN PLACE
FROM OR SOUTH DOWN THE CA COASTLINE. THIS UNIFORM FLOW SHOULD
ENHANCE ACCUMULATIONS FROM THE OR CASCADES/NRN CA MTNS AND SIERRA
INTO THE SAWTOOTH OF ID/NRN AND CENTRAL WASATCH AND CO ROCKIES. A
MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ON SUN WILL ROUND THE BASE OF THE
UPPER TROUGH AND GLIDE INTO NRN/CENTRAL CA. THE LOWERING OF
HEIGHTS AND MORE SWRLY TRAJECTORY SHOULD BE IDEAL FOR VERY HEAVY
SNOW ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE NRN CA MTNS AND SIERRA INTO THE NRN
WASATCH/UINTAS. FINALLY ON MON... HEIGHTS CONTINUE TO DIG DOWN THE
WEST COAST DIRECTING THE DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH CA INTO THE ENTIRE
WASATCH/CO ROCKIES. WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE...EXPECT THE CA
SIERRA TO SEE 4 TO 8 FEET... IF NOT MORE... OF SNOW OVER THE THREE
DAY FCST PERIOD...WHICH COULD VERY WELL BE HISTORIC.

Thanks to Srain for posting it in another thread. This confirms what I have seen all along.

[C2G]

Yes, interesting weather for the mountains out west. Snow pack will increase.
Guess we can live vicariously through them.

[srainhoutx]

Yep, we can.

[srainhoutx]

Record or tied maximum and high minimums at College Station, IAH and Hobby. Ouch...that front on late Christmas Eve is going to be welcome relief...